balmainforever
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AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal
- Thread starter TheJanuaryMan
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Are those taking Prestia through multis concerned about his hamstrings? Next week will be the first time since 2019 he plays 6 games in a row…
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- #252
Currently have him with a comfortable lead. Have attached him to some multis over the past month mostly due to value. Was $7 4 weeks ago, into $5, into $4 and now finally $2.50. Don't think I'd touch him right now at any shorter than $2.25.
- Oct 6, 2011
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Players in losing teams don't poll 3 votes often, that might be something to keep in mind this season
To round 13 the top 5 cont poss are -
1. Neale
2. Oliver
3. Miller
4. Rowell
5. Green
6. Cripps
37. Brayshaw
To round 13 the top 5 cont poss are -
1. Neale
2. Oliver
3. Miller
4. Rowell
5. Green
6. Cripps
37. Brayshaw
- Sep 17, 2014
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Bray too fast for em.
- Oct 6, 2011
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Would it be fair to say in determining the 3 votes are, not in any necessary order: Player Goals, Contested Possessions, Whether your team wins and Contested Marks are pretty important? Im trying to create a model that integrates those four factors as Im not a guy these days with a lot of time to sit down and watch all games. I do know in those tight games, no stats can help out predict those 'moments'. (ive pencilled a few that I will watch a bit later as the year goes on and in my spare time) I mean contested marks are a rarity these days, its becoming more an uncontested game than 20 years ago. Someone like a Gawn who can clunk 5 contested marks in a game, stands out as well and is very much in the reckoning for votes. But If I were to rate those 4 areas in terms of importance it would be : Goals > Team Winning > Contested Possessions > Contested Marks.
If you increase by scoring goals for me it stands out much more than scoring no goals. The game is different to what it was 25-30 years ago. Goals these days stand out like a beacon, just as a players appearance are as well. With the highest average for the forward in the comp this year being 3.09 Goals per game and the highest average in Contested mark being 2.73 marks per game, should we factor that into account that in an analysis as well? Contested mark can be just as spectacular as a goal in this day and age.
In 2021 AFL brownlow for the players that got the 3 Votes:
Averages: 1.52 goals Per Game, Contested Possessions: 12.56 per game
Median: 1 goal Per Game, Contested Possessions: 13 per game
(above correlation coefficient works out to be -0.32711)
If you take out the 0 goals, the correlation is even stronger. (-0.38118) So Im of the opinion goals especially from midfielders always stand out.
A 5 goal stand out in a winning team, is a chance to poll 3. But if you have multiple players kicking 5+ it obviously lessons the value of the performance. There was a game this year , where two players from Port Adelaide kicked 5+ against the Eagles.
If you increase by scoring goals for me it stands out much more than scoring no goals. The game is different to what it was 25-30 years ago. Goals these days stand out like a beacon, just as a players appearance are as well. With the highest average for the forward in the comp this year being 3.09 Goals per game and the highest average in Contested mark being 2.73 marks per game, should we factor that into account that in an analysis as well? Contested mark can be just as spectacular as a goal in this day and age.
In 2021 AFL brownlow for the players that got the 3 Votes:
Averages: 1.52 goals Per Game, Contested Possessions: 12.56 per game
Median: 1 goal Per Game, Contested Possessions: 13 per game
(above correlation coefficient works out to be -0.32711)
If you take out the 0 goals, the correlation is even stronger. (-0.38118) So Im of the opinion goals especially from midfielders always stand out.
A 5 goal stand out in a winning team, is a chance to poll 3. But if you have multiple players kicking 5+ it obviously lessons the value of the performance. There was a game this year , where two players from Port Adelaide kicked 5+ against the Eagles.
Analysis Paralysis
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So many ways to tackle this problem. PhDs have been earnt for less.
I figure whatever method you use needs to account for the different player types - Key forward, forward, inside mid, outside mid, defender, key defender and rucks.
Set yourself an accuracy goal (60% of 3-votes right on previous years data?) and go from there.
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- #260
Well then. At least the hamstrings seem to be fine.
Great to see that Cripps moved into $4.00 from $4.50 on SB after his inspiring vote getting performance today
I am actually Tom Stewart’s shoulder
- Apr 10, 2008
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- #264
Top 10 after Rd 15:
22 - Neale
21.5 - Brayshaw
20.5 - Oliver
18 - Cripps
16 - Petracca
14.5 - Walsh
14 - Miller
13 - Mills
12.5 - J. Cameron
12 - Crisp
22 - Neale
21.5 - Brayshaw
20.5 - Oliver
18 - Cripps
16 - Petracca
14.5 - Walsh
14 - Miller
13 - Mills
12.5 - J. Cameron
12 - Crisp
- May 20, 2016
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just give him the ******* medal already he's gonna steam roll the second half of this season
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- #267
Wouldn't have thought. I'd say end of season.
TAB has provided a lot of value thus far with their team vote multis.
- Feb 25, 2013
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1. Neale - 21
2. Brayshaw, Oliver, Cripps - 18
5. Miller, Petracca - 15
7. Walsh - 14
8. Crisp - 13
9. Mills - 12
2. Brayshaw, Oliver, Cripps - 18
5. Miller, Petracca - 15
7. Walsh - 14
8. Crisp - 13
9. Mills - 12
- Mar 25, 2019
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Can someone give me a run down of their votes for Walsh over the season? Got so swept up with Cripps I can only remember a few of his BOG's but between Hewett, Cerra, Kennedy and him its hard to know if hes in line for a bunch of 1s and 2s in plenty of games.
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- #270
- Feb 25, 2013
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R5: 3
R9: 3
R10: 2
R11: 3
R15: 3
R9: 3
R10: 2
R11: 3
R15: 3
Top 10
20 - A Brayshaw C Oliver
19 - P Cripps L Neale
16 - C Petracca S Walsh
14 - T Miller
13 - J Cameron S Coniglio D Parish
Interesting to compare other top 10’s I do get the feeling that I’m probably underselling Lachie,he’s been borderline for one more vote in probably 4 matches
20 - A Brayshaw C Oliver
19 - P Cripps L Neale
16 - C Petracca S Walsh
14 - T Miller
13 - J Cameron S Coniglio D Parish
Interesting to compare other top 10’s I do get the feeling that I’m probably underselling Lachie,he’s been borderline for one more vote in probably 4 matches
Tigers04
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- Jul 10, 2012
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Highest I’ve seen Coniglio, I’ve got him on 9.
The rest seems fairly inline with what most other people have.
Yeah it does seem a little surprising
3 votes - Rd 3, Rd 10, Rd 13
2 Votes - Rd 7, Rd 15
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