List Mgmt. 2022 Draft Thread - Part I

[George]

Sticking this at the top of each page. If it gets annoying, let me know and I can just put it in the original post of the thread. Credit to Lore

 

[botts]

How did you come to that conclusion?

We wanted pick 3 for 9 + Clark.

We obviously rate some pretty highly in that initial lot.

Phillipou has only really risen In the last 6 weeks

I follow a lot of nightmares rankings. He has been very accurate last couple of years. He has him at pick two over all with the highest ceiling of any player.

 

[stavro#4]

I follow a lot of nightmares rankings. He has been very accurate last couple of years. He has him at pick two over all with the highest ceiling of any player.

I’d say there is a 0% chance we are trading up for Phillipou.

 

[botts]

I’d say there is a 0% chance we are trading up for Phillipou.

Just saying. Imagine the Essendon melt

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I follow a lot of nightmares rankings. He has been very accurate last couple of years. He has him at pick two over all with the highest ceiling of any player.

I just looked at his "power rankings " from Nov 2017.

1: Raynor
2: Davies-Uniacke
3: Cerra
4: Dow
5: Fogarty
6: Balta
7: Naughton
8: Brayshaw
9: Higgins
10: Clark
11: Stephenson
12: Zac Bailey
13: Coffield
14: Constable.


NOTE : His power rankings are NOT a phantom draft.
Ranking Phillipou at number 2 does not mean he expects him to go at pick 2.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

If Essendon would happily move from pick 5 to pick 10 because all the midfielders in that range are about even then why would we pay up to move in the other direction? We are in the sweet spot.

Yep exactly. Bombers supporters are happy to move back for the same reason that we shouldn’t be happy to burn assets and move up!

 

[Mowman]

Well based on the links, only Essendon,us and the Doggies have had genuine links to him.

Hawthorn have had strong links to Humphrey/McKenzie/Tsatas

Geelong will go Clark

Suns will go Humphrey or Gibney

Eagles Gibney or Allen

It doesn’t seem like a crazy risk.

Agree to disagree
Would be filthy on Stkilda if they done something like you want Essendon to do

 

[stavro#4]

Yep exactly. Bombers supporters are happy to move back for the same reason that we shouldn’t be happy to burn assets and move up!

It’s all about opinions.

They might love Phillipou’s ceiling, but there are a lot of draft watchers that think Tsatas stock has been hurt because of his injury during the year.

He is a highly rated mid. Kevin Sheehan thinks a full season would have had him in and around the top 2 picks.

 

[stavro#4]

Agree to disagree
Would filthy on Stkilda if they done something like you want Essendon to do

I’m not saying I want them or believe they will do.

I’m saying it makes sense. NBA sides do this stuff regularly.

It’s about opinions on the draft cattle.

 

[longlivelenny]

Fingers crossed he makes it, but we'd be mad to make any list decisions around him.

Goddard was a long way ahead of Allison. It's really not a great comparison.

He made his debut at 17 and had played over 30 games by the time his 2md year was done

I would love every player on our list to turn out to be a gun but Alison will not make it.

He seemed a strange choice on draft night and looks even worse now.

Doesn't find much footy, isn't big enough, is no good as a back and hasn't shown any ability to be a good link player. I was hoping that he may be Tom Lynch style but it's just not going to happen.

Delisted when his contact finishes.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[longlivelenny]

I wouldnt be giving up a future 2nd to move up a few spots in this years draft, unless it was for a garuanteed Dustin Martin or similiar.

How many years have we traded out our future 2nd round picks and what has it brought us? You are nearly as likely to get a 100-150 game player in the 2nd round as you are from picks 11-20.

Its time to stop this short term thinking, get our recruiting right and value each draft pick like they are gold.

If it was for a guaranteed dusty you would give up every pick we have next year

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FQFjt]

I would love every player on our list to turn out to be a gun but Alison will not make it.

He seemed a strange choice on draft night and looks even worse now.

Doesn't find much footy, isn't big enough, is no good as a back and hasn't shown any ability to be a good link player. I was hoping that he may be Tom Lynch style but it's just not going to happen.

Delisted when his contact finishes.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

He got a generous contract extension too, so if he can't put it together this season then it's not like we didn't give him a good crack.

 

[FQFjt]

I’m not saying I want them or believe they will do.

I’m saying it makes sense. NBA sides do this stuff regularly.

It’s about opinions on the draft cattle.

I don't have enough faith in our recruiting team to make a gamble of that significance. Prefer to leave our selection to random chance, which is essentially what pick 10 allows us to do.

 

[stavro#4]

I don't have enough faith in our recruiting team to make a gamble of that significance. Prefer to leave our selection to random chance, which is essentially what pick 10 allows us to do.

Again opinions.

Mine is the complete opposite.

Be aggressive. Show you have done the work. Target a player and get him.

I’ve been a big advocate for trading IN to this draft.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I don't have enough faith in our recruiting team to make a gamble of that significance. Prefer to leave our selection to random chance, which is essentially what pick 10 allows us to do.

If you give up your first round pick, and take some donkey that everyone in the land thinks is worthy of pick 10, then it feels much better than targeting someone , giving up your future pick as well as your current pick to get him, and THEN finding out he's a donkey.

 

[FQFjt]

If you give up your first round pick, and take some donkey that everyone in the land thinks is worthy of pick 10, then it feels much better than targeting someone , giving up your future pick as well as your current pick to get him, and THEN finding out he's a donkey.

Precisely why we will never forgive McCartin over Petracca but we can live with Billings over Bont.

 

[hangdog]

If you give up your first round pick, and take some donkey that everyone in the land thinks is worthy of pick 10, then it feels much better than targeting someone , giving up your future pick as well as your current pick to get him, and THEN finding out he's a donkey.

 

[bergholt]

That would be disappointing. We took 3 mids last year. We've got a potential mid training with us. We don't need to bring in 4 more through the draft.

There are other positions that need should be adding too, such as a small forward and some tall depth.

Decent small forwards are a dime a dozen, no-one ever won a flag because they had the best small forward in the comp. Tall depth can come from state leagues etc. Too hard to nail those picks in the draft.

Focus on one area - the midfield - and that gives you the best possible chance of actually getting enough A-graders to be seriously competitive.

 

[bergholt]

We took two genuine mids and an outside mid with our 3 first picks last year.

It would be bizarre list management if we loaded up on 4 more mids and ignored any talls.

We need KPP's at either end and the way the draft is looking at going there will be quite a few that fit our needs that will be taken in the 2nd and third rounds.

Disagree. If we need KPPs in four years then drafting them now is a pretty low percentage way of getting them. Last year's flag side had talls they'd traded for (Cameron, Stanley), talls they'd drafted late as mature-age (Stewart, Blicavs), and the rest they'd drafted (Hawkins f/s, De Koning #19, Kolodjashnij #41, Henry rookie #16).

That's 4 talls drafted across 14 seasons who were good enough to win the flag. One every 3.5 years. They've probably drafted 30 other talls in that time none of whom were good enough. Pretty low strike rate.

Trying to pick the eyes out of the draft for "list management" is a low percentage strategy. Just pick mids and running players at every decent pick, and worry about getting talls by trades or FA or mature drafting later.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Again opinions.

Mine is the complete opposite.

Be aggressive. Show you have done the work. Target a player and get him.

I’ve been a big advocate for trading IN to this draft.

I’m happy to use next years for another pick this year, just not to solely move up though. Opinion, yep.

While we wait for news on Essendon’s intentions, what’s your hope and desire on 28 and 32?

 

[bergholt]

Whereas I'm looking at this draft as a great chance to grab talls as there are more than usual with potential who look like they're going to slide. At least one, ideally two, of Lemmey/Scully/Keeler/Van Es/Adams/Eyres/Marshall/Phillips/Foster/Northam/Verrall

Talls with potential we've taken in the last 12 years:

2010 - Arryn Siposs
2011 - Jay Lever
2011 - Sam Dunell
2011 - Jordan Staley
2012 - Tom Hickey
2012 - Tom Lee
2012 - Spencer White
2012 - Lewis Pierce
2013 - Josh Bruce
2013 - Billy Longer
2014 - Tim Membrey
2014 - Paddy McCartin
2014 - Hugh Goddard
2014 - Brenton Payne
2015 - Nick Coughlan
2016 - Josh Battle
2016 - Rowan Marshall
2017 - Logan Austin
2017 - Oscar Clavarino
2018 - Max King
2018 - Callum Wilkie
2018 - Jono Marsh
2018 - Jack Mayo
2019 - Jack Bell
2020 - Matt Allison
2020 - Tom Highmore
2020 - Max Heath
2020 - Cooper Sharman
2021 - Oscar Adams

Obviously some good ones there but generally the strike rate is pretty low. Let everyone else take them and develop them and deal with the inevitable failures while we build a killer midfield then cherry-pick the best tall free agents who want to compete.

 

[hayes]

Decent small forwards are a dime a dozen, no-one ever won a flag because they had the best small forward in the comp. Tall depth can come from state leagues etc. Too hard to nail those picks in the draft.

Focus on one area - the midfield - and that gives you the best possible chance of actually getting enough A-graders to be seriously competitive.

And I thought I was crazy, FINALLY someone that’s on the same page as me.

 

[bergholt]

And I thought I was crazy, FINALLY someone that’s on the same page as me.

Hah I've been pushing this barrow for about a decade, club hasn't listened to me yet. The problem is people make magic spreadsheets about what the list will look like in 5 years, but don't take into account the risk and inevitable failures.

 

[stavro#4]

I’m happy to use next years for another pick this year, just not to solely move up though. Opinion, yep.

While we wait for news on Essendon’s intentions, what’s your hope and desire on 28 and 32?

Max Gruzewski and Keeler.

But that’s unlikely.

 

[stavro#4]

Class of 2022: The explosive top-five prospect being inspired by Swans gun

Get to know top prospect Elijah Tsatas ahead of the 2022 NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[SaintsofSteel]

I would love every player on our list to turn out to be a gun but Alison will not make it.

He seemed a strange choice on draft night and looks even worse now.

Doesn't find much footy, isn't big enough, is no good as a back and hasn't shown any ability to be a good link player. I was hoping that he may be Tom Lynch style but it's just not going to happen.

Delisted when his contact finishes.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

I tend to agree..

He just struggles just to find the footy, his physicality and basic footy IQ appears below average compared to other VFL kids his age.

He has the physical traits and good skills, but if the club can turn him into an good AFL player Ill be very surprised. If he does it will be as a tall flanker not the key position player they thought they were recruiting, his contested marking again is well below average.