List Mgmt. 2022 Draft Thread - Part I

[George]

Sticking this at the top of each page. If it gets annoying, let me know and I can just put it in the original post of the thread. Credit to Lore

 

[bergholt]

Ok mate, maybe the club should put you in charge.

Obviously the AFL industry is pretty dumb and you know the secret formula that no other club has worked out yet...

I mean, I've met a bunch of people who work at both clubs and head office. They're not paid particularly well and they're not generally pulled from the top of the intelligence distribution.

 

[bird_man]

I mean, I've met a bunch of people who work at both clubs and head office. They're not paid particularly well and they're not generally pulled from the top of the intelligence distribution.

I'd imagine a head recruiter would be paid quite well.

You should put ya resume in, shouldn't be too hard considering how dumb they all are

 

[bergholt]

I'd imagine a head recruiter would be paid quite well.

You should put ya resume in, shouldn't be too hard considering how dumb they all are

The head recruiter job is about $120k, not terrible money but not great.

 

[bird_man]

Yeah true. But a later pick used on a mid is more likely to turn into an A grade mid (say 1 in 10) than a later pick used on a project tall like Matty Allison or this Keeler kid (0 in 10).

You need a critical mass of A grade mids to be good. The best way to get them is to keep picking mids until you can see you've got them.

Yeah okay, there seem to be some pretty decent tall defenders taken outside the first round that have made the AA team over the last 5 years.

McGovern, Sicily, Andrews, Grimes, Rance, Aliir, Stewart...

The head recruiter job is about $120k, not terrible money but not great.

Not enough for a brain like yours no doubt

 

[bergholt]

Yeah okay, there seem to be some pretty decent tall defenders taken outside the first round that have made the AA team over the last 5 years.

McGovern, Sicily, Andrews, Grimes, Rance, Aliir, Stewart...

Yeah it's definitely not KPBs that are the challenge. KPFs are the hardest to get in my strategy, but I don't reckon they're that important. Though obviously the side that won the flag this year had two AA KPFs so that's not amazing for my theory.

 

[phantom13]

Yeah it's definitely not KPBs that are the challenge. KPFs are the hardest to get in my strategy, but I don't reckon they're that important. Though obviously the side that won the flag this year had two AA KPFs so that's not amazing for my theory.

To be fair the side that won last year didnt.

 

[bergholt]

To be fair the side that won last year didnt.

Yeah true, and Carlton and West Coast were the other two side with two AA KPFs this year so it's not exactly a strong correlation with success.

 

[bergholt]

Yeah true, and Carlton and West Coast were the other two side with two AA KPFs this year so it's not exactly a strong correlation with success.

Oh and Richmond.

 

[phantom13]

Oh and Richmond.

Richmond coming off 3 flags in 4 years but…

Almost like it’s part luck with the draft

 

[bergholt]

Richmond coming off 3 flags in 4 years but…

Almost like it’s part luck with the draft

Yeah that's entirely my point. Try to pick the eyes out of it and you're completely exposed to luck. Concentrate on just picking up mids and you have the best chance of succeeding regardless of individual picks because you increase the chance of getting really good ones.

 

[bird_man]

Yeah it's definitely not KPBs that are the challenge. KPFs are the hardest to get in my strategy, but I don't reckon they're that important. Though obviously the side that won the flag this year had two AA KPFs so that's not amazing for my theory.

Few handy AA rucks taken outside the first round too...

 

[hangdog]

Five underrated 2022 AFL Draft prospects

With the 2022 AFL Draft now just over a week away, ESPN's draft expert Chris Doerre has put together his picks for the most underrated prospects heading into the draft. .

www.espn.com.au

Kobe Ryan hey..?

 

[Mr_R0b0t]

Again opinions.

Mine is the complete opposite.

Be aggressive. Show you have done the work. Target a player and get him.

I’ve been a big advocate for trading IN to this draft.

Adding to this, speaking to a player agent last week. Next year’s draft is more termed a super draft due to the reason they will be exposed to more matches, carnivals etc., and haven‘t been impacted by Covid compared to this season’s group.

 

[Mr_R0b0t]

I'd like us to be aggressive & use next years 1st to get another 1st this year.

Reckon we'll have a few on the trade table next year after Ross has had a season to assess them.

Absolutely. Make vanilla decisions get vanilla outcomes

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The head recruiter job is about $120k, not terrible money but not great.

$120K for watching footy :/

 

[hayes]

The head recruiter job is about $120k, not terrible money but not great.

Where do you work and are they hiring?

 

[bird_man]

Yeah that's entirely my point. Try to pick the eyes out of it and you're completely exposed to luck. Concentrate on just picking up mids and you have the best chance of succeeding regardless of individual picks because you increase the chance of getting really good ones.

Yeah they probably would have won 6 straight if they had have passed on Rance, Balta, Grimes, Astbury and Broad and just taken mids at every pick

Every premiership side that has picked the eyes out of the draft has just been really lucky

 

[longlivelenny]

Yeah true. But a later pick used on a mid is more likely to turn into an A grade mid (say 1 in 10) than a later pick used on a project tall like Matty Allison or this Keeler kid (0 in 10).

You need a critical mass of A grade mids to be good. The best way to get them is to keep picking mids until you can see you've got them.

Lots of people disagreeing with you, but I think you make some good points.

Only point I would make is that an elite midfield is far from the be all and end all.

Geelong midfield is pretty average in reality (far worse than Melbourne's, Brisbane's, freos). Collingwood's midfield also is not very good.

Richmond had prime dusty and cotchin but not much else compared to other teams they were coming up against.

You need a spread of good players across every line with a sprinkling of stars in any position. A star in any position can change the entire look of a team.

Geelong has a star forward line.
Collingwood has a star backline etc.

I think the drafting strategy should definately be aimed at mids but outside the first round and maybe at a two thirds approach. I.e. after the first round 2 in every three draftees should be mids

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[billings2paddy]

Talls with potential we've taken in the last 12 years:

2010 - Arryn Siposs
2011 - Jay Lever
2011 - Sam Dunell
2011 - Jordan Staley
2012 - Tom Hickey
2012 - Tom Lee
2012 - Spencer White
2012 - Lewis Pierce
2013 - Josh Bruce
2013 - Billy Longer
2014 - Tim Membrey
2014 - Paddy McCartin
2014 - Hugh Goddard
2014 - Brenton Payne
2015 - Nick Coughlan
2016 - Josh Battle
2016 - Rowan Marshall
2017 - Logan Austin
2017 - Oscar Clavarino
2018 - Max King
2018 - Callum Wilkie
2018 - Jono Marsh
2018 - Jack Mayo
2019 - Jack Bell
2020 - Matt Allison
2020 - Tom Highmore
2020 - Max Heath
2020 - Cooper Sharman
2021 - Oscar Adams

Obviously some good ones there but generally the strike rate is pretty low. Let everyone else take them and develop them and deal with the inevitable failures while we build a killer midfield then cherry-pick the best tall free agents who want to compete.

isn't that what gws did lol

 

[bergholt]

Where do you work and are they hiring?

Hah I'm my own boss which means I make decent money most of the time and if I **** up I make zero

 

[bergholt]

Yeah they probably would have won 6 straight if they had have passed on Rance, Balta, Grimes, Astbury and Broad and just taken mids at every pick

Every premiership side that has picked the eyes out of the draft has just been really lucky

There's an old thought experiment about tossing coins. Get 1000 people, get them all to toss a coin ten times and call it in the air, if they get it wrong any time then they're out. After ten tosses you'll have one or two left. Are those one or two genius coin tossers? Or are they just lucky? Same applies to most areas of life where luck holds sway.

Obviously in drafting there's a bit more skill involved but there's still a huge amount that can go right or wrong unpredictably.

 

[bergholt]

Lots of people disagreeing with you, but I think you make some good points.

Only point I would make is that an elite midfield is far from the be all and end all.

Geelong midfield is pretty average in reality (far worse than Melbourne's, Brisbane's, freos). Collingwood's midfield also is not very good.

Richmond had prime dusty and cotchin but not much else compared to other teams they were coming up against.

You need a spread of good players across every line with a sprinkling of stars in any position. A star in any position can change the entire look of a team.

Geelong has a star forward line.
Collingwood has a star backline etc.

I think the drafting strategy should definately be aimed at mids but outside the first round and maybe at a two thirds approach. I.e. after the first round 2 in every three draftees should be mids

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yeah you're spot on. I guess I just think that getting bulk of mids makes it more likely you'll end up with a star. Much more so than talls who are notoriously hard to pick at junior level.

 

[bergholt]

isn't that what gws did lol

Yeah though with them it obviously didn't help that all these guys hated the place and wanted out.

 

[aussierulesrules]

So, who are we getting?

 

[botts]

So, who are we getting?

McKenzie