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List Mgmt. 2022 Draft Thread

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If the long-term options are "trade every few years for a KPD who's near the end of his career" and "draft a promising 18-year-old or two and develop them over the years", I prefer the second one. Would be great if a Jordon Butts or Sam Taylor or Charlie Ballard wanted to come to us, but they don't.
 
weltschmerz said:
If the long-term options are "trade every few years for a KPD who's near the end of his career" and "draft a promising 18-year-old or two and develop them over the years", I prefer the second one. Would be great if a Jordon Butts or Sam Taylor or Charlie Ballard wanted to come to us, but they don't.
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Yeah not sure it’s as easy a strategy as suggested otherwise we probably wouldn’t be in this position…

I get that good defenders can be found on the cheap (which is why I hate the fact we’ve neglected to even take defenders cheaply in recent years) but most of the top ones still go early, and I think you still need at least one real top liner in any good defence, easier to fill the gaps with cheap defenders rather than develop a whole backline around them.

I’m not suggesting we reach at all costs but there got to be a bit of compromise in list management - for example if Jhye Clark etc & Buss are still available and we had Clark higher on our board as more likely to become a good player, I’d still be pretty pissed we didn’t go with the desperate need. Same goes for Weddle/Hewett types etc, different story if we rate Clark as 5th best and Buss at 15th then fine, but if it’s say 7th and 9th then **** take the need plssss
 
doggies ftw said:
Yeah not sure it’s as easy a strategy as suggested otherwise we probably wouldn’t be in this position…

I get that good defenders can be found on the cheap (which is why I hate the fact we’ve neglected to even take defenders cheaply in recent years) but most of the top ones still go early, and I think you still need at least one real top liner in any good defence, easier to fill the gaps with cheap defenders rather than develop a whole backline around them.

I’m not suggesting we reach at all costs but there got to be a bit of compromise in list management - for example if Jhye Clark etc & Buss are still available and we had Clark higher on our board as more likely to become a good player, I’d still be pretty pissed we didn’t go with the desperate need. Same goes for Weddle/Hewett types etc, different story if we rate Clark as 5th best and Buss at 15th then fine, but if it’s say 7th and 9th then * take the need plssss
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I always say. Just because our midfield might be our strength, does not mean it cannot be made even better. If we have a MID and a DEF available at our pick. And the MID is rated higher, and has higher odds to make the grade, we take him. If that means one of our current MID gets pushed back to being a depth player, so be it. Our depth is then stronger. Always best available inside the top 30 picks at least. Fill in the gaps with later and rookie picks. Some of the better defenders in the league today were later round or rookie gems. Tom Stewart the standout.

Obvious exception as you stated, is if there is not much difference in between the MID and DEF in ratings, then you probably lean towards the position of need. Every position on the list can be improved on, even if a strength. I have no issue if the club decided to go MID early, if they felt they were the best available player on the board.
 

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weltschmerz said:
Are we counting on "well we'll find a diamond in the rough somewhere in the rookie draft"? Is that really a thing we can count on?
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No. But it is a very ordinary draft. This years defenders might be 30 plus picks in other drafts. Who knows? Only the clubs and their extensive scouting network know where they stand compared to other years. This years forward crop is very ordinary as well. So not the best measuring stick either.

There is no elite defender that everyone is scrambling up the draft boards for. And heaps of teams need one. The highest rated defender has been slipping down the draft boards. You don't want us picking a defender for the sake of it. We have to feel comfortable that they will make the grade. No one is against taking a defender. I think the point is reaching for one out of desperation.

As Doggiesftw said, if we have two players on the board with similar ratings, we can probably go towards the defender. But if we had a MID rated borderline top 10, and a defender rated in the 20-25 range, we go the MID each time. Purely because one they are the better player, and also have higher odds to make it. You don't want to piss away your A grade picks on guys less likely to reach A grade level.

Pick 11 is about best available. If Busslinger is gone, we would be silly to pass on a top 10 slider, to reach for Hayes or Weddle who are generally ranked in the 18-25 range, just because we need a defender. Even if that means running the risk of them not being there at 21.
 
_Cerberus_ said:
No. But it is a very ordinary draft. This years defenders might be 30 plus picks in other drafts. Who knows? Only the clubs and their extensive scouting network know where they stand compared to other years. This years forward crop is very ordinary as well. So not the best measuring stick either.

There is no elite defender that everyone is scrambling up the draft boards for. And the highest rated one has been slipping down the draft boards. And heaps of teams need defenders. You don't want us picking a defender for the sake of it. We have to feel comfortable that they will make the grade. No one is against taking a defender. I think the point is reaching for one out of desperation.

As Doggiesftw said, if we have two players on the board with similar ratings, we can probably go towards the defender. But if we had a MID rated borderline top 10, and a defender rated in the 20-25 range, we go the MID each time. Purely because one they are the better player, and also have higher odds to make it. You don't want to piss away your A grade picks on guys less likely to reach A grade level.

Pick 11 is about best available. If Busslinger is gone, we would be silly to pass on a top 10 slider, to reach for Hayes at Weddle who are generally ranked in the 18-25 range, just because we need a defender. Even if that means running the risk of them not being there at 21.
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You're welcome to your opinion. Mine is that this will be a failed draft if we don't take a KPD who's at least somewhat rated, because we've had no luck finding gems in the rookie draft, we can only trade in guys over 30, and we desperately need young KPD talent developing. If we take pure best available at each pick, and go home with a mid, a forward, and a half back flanker, we have drafted poorly for our specific team.

We need a KPD who we can build the backline around into the future. We're 99% not going to find one of those late/rookie draft, and we're not a destination club who can lure them over from other sides. We draft them, or we keep floundering because we're not addressing that desperate need.
 
weltschmerz said:
You're welcome to your opinion. Mine is that this will be a failed draft if we don't take a KPD who's at least somewhat rated, because we've had no luck finding gems in the rookie draft, we can only trade in guys over 30, and we desperately need young KPD talent developing. If we take pure best available at each pick, and go home with a mid, a forward, and a half back flanker, we have drafted poorly for our specific team.
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Man, I have been saying I want a defender just as much as you do. I would be disappointed as well if we do not take one as well. A few have been suggesting if Busslinger is gone at Pick 11, then we take Hayes or Weddle because they are worried both will not be there at pick 21. I've been saying in many posts I would love Weddle. He or hayes could still very well be there at 21, or we could be missing a pick in that range where they might go as well.

But Pick 11 is a top level pick. You take a guy who is most likely to succeed at AFL level and play 200 impactful games at that Pick, than a guy rated much lower with lesser odds to reach that level. If that means it is a midfielder, so be it. I want a defender, but we need to pick one at their correct range. So either we split our pick 11 and drop back, or trade up pick 21. I'm just in the, lets not reach for someone ranked in the 20's range at pick 11. Because if we reached every time with our high end picks, we will have more misses than hits when it comes to success rate.
 
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_Cerberus_ said:
But Pick 11 is a top level pick. You take a guy who is most likely to succeed at AFL level and play 200 impactful games at that Pick, than a guy rated much lower with lesser odds to reach that level. If that means it is a midfielder, so be it. I want a defender, but we need to pick one at their correct range. So either we split our pick 11 and drop back, or trade up pick 21. I'm just in the, lets not reach for someone ranked in the 20's range at pick 11. Because if we reached every time with our high end picks, we will have more misses than hits when it comes to success rate.
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For me, it's a top level pick so we take the guy who would be the best in our team, rather than the best on paper. Don't take the guy who'll play out of position for a couple of years because his position is stacked and then request a trade to a team who'll play them where they want. Pick 12 from two years ago just requested a trade because he wasn't getting a game in his position. Top level pick, take the guy who you can build a line around.
 
weltschmerz said:
For me, it's a top level pick so we take the guy who would be the best in our team, rather than the best on paper. Don't take the guy who'll play out of position for a couple of years because his position is stacked and then request a trade to a team who'll play them where they want. Pick 12 from two years ago just requested a trade because he wasn't getting a game in his position. Top level pick, take the guy who you can build a line around.
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Our midfield is massively overrated tbh. It lacks attributes like scoreboard impact, speed and good ball use. So I'm sure if we drafted a MID, it will be because we feel they will contribute in those areas. If we did draft one, then it would be because we feel they have the ability to be a best 22 player straight away or offer something we lack.

I'm curious. Say you're our recruiting team on draft night. Say we only have three main list spots, so we are set at three picks.

This is a very likely scenario on draft night. Busslinger is gone by Pick 11. GWS, Swans and Pies are really into Weddle and Hayes by all reports. All of them dominate the picks in that 15-20 range. But say no one wants to swap picks with us to drop 11 back, nor does anyone want to take 21 and a F2 for us to move 21 up into the late teens. All teams are content with their placement in the draft. Therefore our picks are stuck as they are now. Would you pass on Phillipou or Hollands at 11 and takes one of Hayes or Weddle knowing others want them before pick 21? Even knowing a top 10 slider has much higher odds of playing more games, and reaching a higher level.

Look I'd be dissapointed if we do not draft a defender. But it is looking odds on all could be taken before our picks as well. Busslinger before 11, Hayes and Weddle before 21. Van E's and the VFL guy (mind is blank for the name atm) could go before pick 39. I'd personally like to see us try and make some moves if we can. But if say we cannot find any trade partners, then we cannot hate the club for it. The picks are the hand we have.

I'd want us to at least TRY and make moves to get a defender myself. If we try and cannot, then I can't fault the club for trying. If we sat around and did nothing, then I wouldn't be to happy.
 
_Cerberus_ said:
Our midfield is massively overrated tbh. It lacks attributes like scoreboard impact, speed and good ball use. So I'm sure if we drafted a MID, it will be because we feel they will contribute in those areas. If we did draft one, then it would be because we feel they have the ability to be a best 22 player straight away or offer something we lack.

I'm curious. Say you're our recruiting team on draft night. Say we only have three main list spots, so we are set at three picks.

This is a very likely scenario on draft night. Busslinger is gone by Pick 11. GWS, Swans and Pies are really into Weddle and Hayes by all reports. All of them dominate the picks in that 15-20 range. But say no one wants to swap picks with us to drop 11 back, nor does anyone want to take 21 and a F2 for us to move 21 up into the late teens. All teams are content with their placement in the draft. Therefore our picks are stuck as they are now. Would you pass on Phillipou or Hollands at 11 and takes one of Hayes or Weddle knowing others want them before pick 21? Even knowing a top 10 slider has much higher odds of playing more games, and reaching a higher level.

Look I'd be dissapointed if we do not draft a defender. But it is looking odds on all could be taken before our picks as well. Busslinger before 11, Hayes and Weddle before 21. Van E's and the VFL guy (mind is blank for the name atm) could go before pick 39. I'd personally like to see us try and make some moves if we can. But if say we cannot find any trade partners, then we cannot hate the club for it. The picks are the hand we have.

I'd want us to at least TRY and make moves to get a defender myself. If we try and cannot, then I can't fault the club for trying. If we sat around and did nothing, then I wouldn't be to happy.
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Honestly, yes I would draft Hayes. As I've said, going another year without a developing KPD on the list is a failure of our system, and there's no reason Hayes can't be just as good as Hollands or Phillipou. People love a bolter when it's Darcy Jones or Ed Allan, why not one who we actually need?
 
_Cerberus_ said:
If GWS want Clarke, i cannot see them swapping their picks with us, knowing we have an interest as well.
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Yeah you’re probably right but if they rate someone as 11, like Jefferson eg at 11 higher than they rate Clarke then maybe it makes sense for them.

These pick swaps are so hard to have an opinion on cos they’re just so subjective and completely come down to how each team rates the draft - obviously an exaggeration but you could trade pick 1 for pick 20 and you still technically win the trade if you rate the player you picked at 20 higher than the player picked at 1. In saying that though GWS did already trade 12 out for **** all so that probably suggests they don’t care for that part of the draft.

Just as a hypothetical though would anyone do 11 & F1 for 15, 18 & 19 - meaning 18 & 19 for (a mid - late) F1 in a supposedly stronger draft and an upgrade from 15 to 11. I’d do it as we have lots of list spots to fill and 4 cracks between 15 to 21 which is a great range for our specific list needs

Again it depends on how they rate this & next years draft & their list needs this year which I know nothing of.

Otherwise if Sydney hate the draft so much as suggested I wonder if you could get both 14 & 17 out of them for F1 & a token pick etc - I personally want to bring a pick from next year forward as I think we need talent urgently due to our current list profile, plus I feel you might get big overs considering the strengths of each draft (again making sure there’s players we rate highly at the pick/s we bring in)
 

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I want us to pass on Busslinger IF he is there. Better to take the midfielders in that range. They look like they will be solid players who could become very good.
Busslinger is a third tall, who may become a KPD but isn’t one now.
Better to take the mid, then reassess at pick 21.
At pick 21, Clarke, George, Allan, Jones; are all good options. IF we decided to back one of them over Hayes and Weddle, then so be it.
Then at pick 39, Philips, Van Es are options.

There are also some other late options that may slip to rookie draft too. Not sure they are worth drafting, might be best to wait until next year.
 
All this debate about who we’d take at what point seems fairly pointless to me. It is based on our own player assessments which for most of us I’d guess are heavily influenced by phantom drafts, what we read in the footy media and what others are saying. We really have no idea what Milesi’s draft order is. Hopefully he’s done his homework and has a good handle on the top 50 prospects.

He says he’ll pick best available at his first pick and I’m happy to let that happen. I don’t give a crap if Busslinger or Jhye Clarke or Ginbey or even Ashcroft are still there. If Milesi has somebody else ranked higher then I’m happy for him to call that name.

His career prospects rest on how good those calls are. Dalrymple has made a long career of it. Let’s hope Milesi can do nearly as well.
 
That said I’m happy for us to look at list balancing with Pick 39 and beyond (i.e. the Rookie draft) as long as there are some prospects there who have some chance of making the grade over say 3-4 years.
 
dogwatch said:
It is based on our own player assessments which for most of us I’d guess are heavily influenced by phantom drafts, what we read in the footy media and what others are saying
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For me, it's an even more lazy assessment than that. I base my opinions on what they look like and how tall they are. I don't even watch the highlight reels.
 
ScragCity said:
For me, it's an even more lazy assessment than that. I base my opinions on what they look like and how tall they are. I don't even watch the highlight reels.
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Wait ... isn't the hair a factor?
 
weltschmerz said:
We need a KPD who we can build the backline around into the future. We're 99% not going to find one of those late/rookie draft, and we're not a destination club who can lure them over from other sides. We draft them, or we keep floundering because we're not addressing that desperate need.
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Brian Lake was pick 71
We just chased Sam Collins who we could have signed as a DFA

It's not as common as high picks, but they can be found. There are a few lively types slated as late/rookie picks this year (as most years)
 

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dogwatch said:
All this debate about who we’d take at what point seems fairly pointless to me. It is based on our own player assessments which for most of us I’d guess are heavily influenced by phantom drafts, what we read in the footy media and what others are saying. We really have no idea what Milesi’s draft order is. Hopefully he’s done his homework and has a good handle on the top 50 prospects.
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Recruiters are still conducting interviews so the final draft order at each club isn't yet finalised.
 
Mofra said:
Recruiters are still conducting interviews so the final draft order at each club isn't yet finalised.
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Yes that makes sense. Doesn't change my point though. Milesi (and colleagues) will be making their own assessments which may or may not look a lot like ours.

It'd be fascinating to be a fly on the wall of a couple of interviews just to see how they go about it.
 
I mean we won a premiership with Fletcher Roberts as a key defender, Cordy as a centre half forward and Roughie in the ruck. I don’t think it’s impossible to look even better next year and a lot of our other areas of weakness are fixed compared to our premiership squad
 
Dav1d said:
I mean we won a premiership with Fletcher Roberts as a key defender, Cordy as a centre half forward and Roughie in the ruck. I don’t think it’s impossible to look even better next year and a lot of our other areas of weakness are fixed compared to our premiership squad
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Good point. Drafting a gun at pick 11,21 or 39 could make a huge difference
 
dogwatch said:
Yes that makes sense. Doesn't change my point though. Milesi (and colleagues) will be making their own assessments which may or may not look a lot like ours.

It'd be fascinating to be a fly on the wall of a couple of interviews just to see how they go about it.
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There are always a few players that recruiters rate higher than BF (often with good reason).
Darcy after the first couple of u18 games for a start. Georgiadis another.
 
Dav1d said:
I mean we won a premiership with Fletcher Roberts as a key defender, Cordy as a centre half forward and Roughie in the ruck. I don’t think it’s impossible to look even better next year and a lot of our other areas of weakness are fixed compared to our premiership squad
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Matty Boyd and Dale Morris though - two blokes currently in the grab of this century for us.
The 2016 team had a lot more grit than our current one (any team with Picken in it would really)
 
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