List Mgmt. 2022 Draft Thread

[Testekill]

Looking forward to the first 10 picks taking 3 hours

The AFL really thinks that people wanted the draft to be a big event to watch instead of something that we tolerate.

 

[Bonti 5416]

Bennier has strong Will Gould vibes.

Disagree. He tested really well athletically, especially for his size. He certainly doesnt look in elite shape. Full time training environment should see him develop into a powerful athlete. Booming kick on him too. My fav of the players we are being linked to at 39

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I'm not convinced we draft Busslinger because:

• We've converted a key defender to key forward we've drafted (Naughton)
• Deliberately recruited mature talls from other clubs, rather hee than use draft resources to develop (Jones & Keath especially, but Lobb and even going back to Trengove). I'm not saying this to mean "we already have enough talls" but moreso the principles of economics, moneyball style, as to how we construct a list - it's more efficient to use draft picks on mids, forwards and smaller players, and recruit proven AFL performers as talls/defenders.

If you look at the numbers, key defenders come from everywhere in in the draft, and some are players repurposed from than other positions. Meaning that the first key defender drafted is less likely to be the better player than the 2nd defender drafted, as opposed to the 6th midfielder drafted is much more likely to be better than the 7th midfielder drafted.

 

[weltschmerz]

I'm not convinced we draft Busslinger because:

• We've converted a key defender to key forward we've drafted (Naughton)
• Deliberately recruited mature talls from other clubs, rather hee than use draft resources to develop (Jones & Keath especially, but Lobb and even going back to Trengove). I'm not saying this to mean "we already have enough talls" but moreso the principles of economics, moneyball style, as to how we construct a list - it's more efficient to use draft picks on mids, forwards and smaller players, and recruit proven AFL performers as talls/defenders.

If you look at the numbers, key defenders come from everywhere in in the draft, and some are players repurposed from than other positions. Meaning that the first key defender drafted is less likely to be the better player than the 2nd defender drafted, as opposed to the 6th midfielder drafted is much more likely to be better than the 7th midfielder drafted.

I think we’re at a point where we need to draft and develop a young key defender. That was the plan for Naughton, he just turned out too good up forward, but having a young fella who’s already very good in the role develop over the course of a decade is very valuable. Buss could also easily be a genuine best available at our pick.

 

[dogwatch]

Looking forward to the first 10 picks taking 3 hours

Definitely on my WILL-NOT-WATCH list. I'll be following it online. Checking in every 15 minutes or so because it'll probably take that long for each pick.

 

[dogwatch]

The other thing worth noting in the phantom drafts is that in all of them Hayes is available (or looks likely to be in the shorter ones) at our second pick if we wanted to do the defender double.
They also have Hotton available who I quite like as a potential wing/high half foward.
I can also understand the appeal with Clark who could come in and probably play as a pressure forward from round 1.

Doesn't sound like we'll double up. More likely Hayes is Plan B if we decide to go for a midfielder first up.

 

[dogwatch]

The AFL really thinks that people wanted the draft to be a big event to watch instead of something that we tolerate.

108 pages of this thread suggest that we do a bit more than just tolerate it. We're complicit.

 

[doggy_dog]

The AFL really thinks that people wanted the draft to be a big event to watch instead of something that we tolerate.

I genuinely enjoy the draft, although the first round does go far, far too long

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I think we’re at a point where we need to draft and develop a young key defender. That was the plan for Naughton, he just turned out too good up forward, but having a young fella who’s already very good in the role develop over the course of a decade is very valuable. Buss could also easily be a genuine best available at our pick.

We got Keath, we got Jones, we have Darcy. We've seen a range of highly rated talls in the last few years not kick on early (DGB, Zach Reid, McAsey, Jarrod Brander, even Griffin Logue to an extent). I'm sure Adelaide, after losing Keath, thought the same thing about McAsey, and are rueing the fact they could have had Serong or other players. In the last 5 years, a large part of the top-end "misses" have been these types.

Unless something changes at the macro, ease of recruiting players from other clubs, what's stopping us simply cycling through players every time they come out of contract? Keath might have had a bad year but his expected output for 2023, and even 2024 is still greater than the five players I listed above, and the picks we needed to trade for him were less.

 

[dogwatch]

I'm not convinced we draft Busslinger because:

• We've converted a key defender to key forward we've drafted (Naughton)
• Deliberately recruited mature talls from other clubs, rather hee than use draft resources to develop (Jones & Keath especially, but Lobb and even going back to Trengove). I'm not saying this to mean "we already have enough talls" but moreso the principles of economics, moneyball style, as to how we construct a list - it's more efficient to use draft picks on mids, forwards and smaller players, and recruit proven AFL performers as talls/defenders.

If you look at the numbers, key defenders come from everywhere in in the draft, and some are players repurposed from than other positions. Meaning that the first key defender drafted is less likely to be the better player than the 2nd defender drafted, as opposed to the 6th midfielder drafted is much more likely to be better than the 7th midfielder drafted.

I think we’re at a point where we need to draft and develop a young key defender. That was the plan for Naughton, he just turned out too good up forward, but having a young fella who’s already very good in the role develop over the course of a decade is very valuable. Buss could also easily be a genuine best available at our pick.

I was thinking the same thing, 3np. Based on recent draft history, using a top 12 pick on a KPD may not be the best way to spend our beans.

However I'm of the weltschmerz view that at some point we need a purpose-built KPD (or tall interceptor at least) and that now is the best time to get one. If not Busslinger with pick 11 then Hayes or Van Es or one of the others with our second or third pick. It will just take so much angst out of our list balancing over the next few years. If you've got one genuine young KPD, you can build a defence around that.

And if our KPD pick is a flop (like McAsey seems to have been) then we simply go again next year.

 

[ossie_21]

Is it just the top 10 tonight and the rest tomorrow? Or the whole first round tonight?

 

[Doggy]

Is it just the top 10 tonight and the rest tomorrow? Or the whole first round tonight?

Whole round

 

[Mofra]

I don't really think they're comparable.
I know watching footage isn't always accurate but looking back at McAsey's vision he seems to take long slow strides and is not very nimble.
Busslinger has quicker feet and is more agile. His speed should improve as he builds power in his legs.
Busslinger is also a sharper flatter kick which makes him a more damaging player on the rebound.

I'd be very happy with Busslinger.

In fact the only scenario that would worry me is if we took Allan, he feels like he has a lot of bust potential.

In Busslinger's favour is that as an 18 year old 82kg(ish) player he made it to senior level in the WAFL which bodes well for his game transitioning to AFL.
The fact he was taking kick outs is another positive. I still think we have a KPD hole if we grab him, but a tall interceptor isn't something we should sneeze at.

 

[Mofra]

We got Keath, we got Jones, we have Darcy. We've seen a range of highly rated talls in the last few years not kick on early (DGB, Zach Reid, McAsey, Jarrod Brander, even Griffin Logue to an extent). I'm sure Adelaide, after losing Keath, thought the same thing about McAsey, and are rueing the fact they could have had Serong or other players. In the last 5 years, a large part of the top-end "misses" have been these types.

Currently, Adelaide's best lockdown KPD is Butts (pick 39 in the rookie draft).
I'd like us to consider Kyle Marshall as a rookie - slow burn project player with exception athleticism and some vague ruck scope too

Let's not forget Gardner is more of a lockdown, follow an opponent type than interceptor too.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Our starting midfield unit will be players that were all top draft picks. Not a single player we've drafted in the late second or third round in recent years has come on enough to force their way onto level pegging with players that were drafted earlier.

On the other hand, our three main key defenders will be: A cricket Cat B recruit who we traded for, a converted key forward from a pick in the 30's way back, that we signed as a DFA, and an athletic utility, that we converted to key defender that we mid-year drafted.

I'm not suggesting that someone like Weitering shouldn't have been pick 1 by that logic, but I'm much more concerned about a quality of midfield that is tried to be filled with players that are recruited by players drafted outside the top 30, than I am a key defensive unit filled with players recruited outside of the top 30.

 

[Testekill]

In Busslinger's favour is that as an 18 year old 82kg(ish) player he made it to senior level in the WAFL which bodes well for his game transitioning to AFL.
The fact he was taking kick outs is another positive. I still think we have a KPD hole if we grab him, but a tall interceptor isn't something we should sneeze at.

Yup, I'd be leery of any dominant key defender at Colts level but he made it to WAFL seniors.

 

[Angak]

I'm not convinced we draft Busslinger because:

• We've converted a key defender to key forward we've drafted (Naughton)
• Deliberately recruited mature talls from other clubs, rather hee than use draft resources to develop (Jones & Keath especially, but Lobb and even going back to Trengove). I'm not saying this to mean "we already have enough talls" but moreso the principles of economics, moneyball style, as to how we construct a list - it's more efficient to use draft picks on mids, forwards and smaller players, and recruit proven AFL performers as talls/defenders.

If you look at the numbers, key defenders come from everywhere in in the draft, and some are players repurposed from than other positions. Meaning that the first key defender drafted is less likely to be the better player than the 2nd defender drafted, as opposed to the 6th midfielder drafted is much more likely to be better than the 7th midfielder drafted.

Agree with a lot of this.

The other key reason why I think we don't draft Busslinger is his athletic profile. The AFL is becoming more athletic. You have to have combination of speed + strength to excel at this level. Busslinger has a below avg ceiling on both these attributes.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Our starting midfield unit will be players that were all top draft picks. Not a single player we've drafted in the late second or third round in recent years has come on enough to force their way onto level pegging with players that were drafted earlier.

On the other hand, our three main key defenders will be: A cricket Cat B recruit who we traded for, a converted key forward from a pick in the 30's way back, that we signed as a DFA, and an athletic utility, that we converted to key defender that we mid-year drafted.

I'm not suggesting that someone like Weitering shouldn't have been pick 1 by that logic, but I'm much more concerned about a quality of midfield that is tried to be filled with players that are recruited by players drafted outside the top 30, than I am a key defensive unit filled with players recruited outside of the top 30.

That can be an argument both for and against. Yes we've made do, but we've hardly flourished without an elite defender. We have one of the most highly rated midfields and perhaps the poorest defensive line and that largely reflects the amount of high draft picks we've sunk into those areas.

 

[BevoRambo]

So if we do end up with the bus-slinger kid from WA, what odds would you give that Bevo switches him into a forward and sends Nauts back in time for round 1 next season?

 

[VitalDread]

Dogs and Blues have spoken to Hollands 3 or 4 times

 

[Testekill]

Dogs and Blues have spoken to Hollands 3 or 4 times

Hollands would play round 1 on the wing so if it came down to him and Buss at 12 I'd be pretty conflicted.

 

[blagodellago]

Our starting midfield unit will be players that were all top draft picks. Not a single player we've drafted in the late second or third round in recent years has come on enough to force their way onto level pegging with players that were drafted earlier.

On the other hand, our three main key defenders will be: A cricket Cat B recruit who we traded for, a converted key forward from a pick in the 30's way back, that we signed as a DFA, and an athletic utility, that we converted to key defender that we mid-year drafted.

I wonder if that is why we are considered to have one of the best midfields in the league and arguably the worst key defenders in the league?


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[Mojorisin]

I wonder if that is why we are considered to have one of the best midfields in the league and arguably the worst key defenders in the league?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I'd say it's more because we have a fantastic offensive midfield that lack a defensive side which puts the defenders under unnecessary pressure.

 

[geoffjennings79]

I don't really know my Busslingers from my Hayes, but I'm still wary of first round talls after we selected [PLAYERCARD]Luke Penny[/PLAYERCARD] in 1998. Even English, Naughton, JUH and Darcy in the years since has not eased the mental anguish.

Sadly for Penny, of the 3 ex-Dogs I know who currently work in real estate, he is also a long way behind the other 2 in the 'likability' stakes amongst former team-mates.

And apparently the club, his father and his former manager still remain confused after all these years about why he actually asked for a trade to St Kilda.

So my bottom line I guess is - club should ask Busslinger and Hayes and Van Es and whatever other young defenders are in the draft: "outside of your potential AFL career, do you plan to become a real estate agent down the track? If so, do you see yourself as more of a Jarrod Grant/[PLAYERCARD]Ben Harrison[/PLAYERCARD], or a loner like [PLAYERCARD]Luke Penny[/PLAYERCARD]?"

 

[LondonBulldog]

I would take the best onballers available with our first 2 picks. Our current crop are ageing and another couple of high talented onballers can only help.

Our time is now, while Bont is in his prime. We can't wait for a CHB to develop in 5 years.

Pick the best onballer who may impact straight away, like Smith did.