No Oppo Supporters 2022 General AFL Discussion

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Kapers

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Sep 25, 2019
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Dyson's interview on the couch is really interesting. Great job by all imo.
 

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hairy biker

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“Paddy McCartin actually reached out to me after the Sydney game and he’s just looked after me, just little messages saying that he’s there for me and to message me if you ever need,” Ugle-Hagan told reporters on Monday.

“It's a challenging role to accept but it’s great to know that someone else on another football team understands my position and understands what we go through, which is massive pressure but we just feed off that and obviously it’s going to make us better footballers.

"He just said reach out and ask for help if I have any questions about how I'm going. After the Sydney game he messaged me, which was unbelievable because I found he was a great bloke on the field, gave me a couple of confidence messages when I was out there.”

It does seem every year the pressure goes up on early picks and #1 especially.
I remember when JUH made his debut AFL.com had an involvement by involvement tracking post.

This year's hyphen JHF has started well, but everyone tells you talls generally take longer not that it stops 'journos' putting them under the microscope.
And of course it seems every #1 pick is a generational talent (eg JUH comparisons to Buddy).

Oh and well done Paddy (but perhaps less of the in game confidence messages to the opposition players).
 
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Kapers

Premiership Player
Sep 25, 2019
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It does seem every year the pressure goes up on early picks and #1 especially.
I remember when JUH made his debut AFL.com had an involvement by involvement tracking post.

This year's hyphen JHF has started well, but everyone tells you talls generally take longer not that it stops 'journos' putting them under the microscope.
And of course it seems every #1 pick is a generational talent (eg JUH comparisons to Buddy).

Oh and well done Paddy (but perhaps less of the in game confidence messages to the opposition players).
Last thing I would want to do after losing is reach out to an opposition player.

Unreal from Paddy, great to see his kindness and understanding.
 

kickthething

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you are kidding, right?



It does seem every year the pressure goes up on early picks and #1 especially.
I remember when JUH made his debut AFL.com had an involvement by involvement tracking post.

This year's hyphen JHF has started well, but everyone tells you talls generally take longer not that it stops 'journos' putting them under the microscope.
And of course it seems every #1 pick is a generational talent (eg JUH comparisons to Buddy).

Oh and well done Paddy (but perhaps less of the in game confidence messages to the opposition players).
Saw JUH at a VFL game at Punt Rd during Anzac day round. He has grown a bit from the draft night and has good size about him. People need to remember he came into the No 1 spot without playing for a whole year and following a year with a dominant Oakleigh running onto balls delivered by Rowell, Bianco, and Anderson. The practice game I saw him play at the start of 2020 he spent a fair bit of the game in defence and kicked poorly when up forward. Too much pressure on this guy, wether he makes it or not the media are basically hyenas waiting for a carcass to devour. Nothing has been learned from Jack Watts.
 

caesar88

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Apr 26, 2016
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I don't reckon James Sicily gets enough credit for how he's changed over the years. Couldn't stand him as he was an antagonistic AF for a long time to the point it actually overshadowed that he was a very good player. I don't know if it's a few tough years with injuries humbling him, or if he's just grown up and matured, but he's just a decent, fair, modest player now who is letting his elite talent do the talking.

Think we love making note of the players we think are dickheads or whatever so it's only fair that we acknowledge efforts they make to actually change.
 

Ballarat Bob

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Feb 5, 2020
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JUH will come good whether it's at the Dogs or not I am not sure. He doesn't have the luxury of learning from a Buddy type figure and I am not sure Luke Beveridge is his biggest fan or the coach to develop him.
We have been able to slowly introduce Logan and he's getting games as much about his workrate and speed and there is no expectation that he will kick a bag of goals although he's more than capable. Once he fills out he can be more dominant in the forward fifty.
JUH has just looked lost when he's played in the seniors but he's only 19-20 and you would want to give him at least another 2 years. If the dogs don't persist with him I am sure someone else will pick him up. He is on a hiding to nothing as well as he was number one draft pick in one of the strongest drafts in recent years.
Good on Paddy for supporting him , Paddy copped enough as a number one pick although he is making people eat humble pie at the moment.
I know people reckon Jack Watts gets enough crap as one of the worst number one draft picks but he was a decent AFL footballer but was playing for Melbourne when they were one of the worst teams in modern history (with one of the worst coaches of modern times) . His main problem was not jumping ship earlier before he ended up at Port. I think he could have been a much better player if he had gone to just about any other club during that period.
 

Wheresbuddy

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Speaking of number one picks, I used to see Travis Johnstone down at my local cafe when he played for the Lions. He was #1 in the 1997 draft, again to Melbourne, who never fulfilled potential. No guarantees in professional sport or life in general..........
 

GoTheSwannies

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I'm going clearly with my post here so bash my opinion if you like, but I'm not so sure about JUH, I think he'll be a bust tbh. Has the physical attributes/talent, but from what I've seen of him, I don't think he's got the mentality of a winner, and will ultimately never reach his expected potential. I think Beveridge is probably trying to toughen him up, but whether his tactic will work time will tell. I don't see him fulfilling his star potential.
 

GoTheSwannies

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It does seem every year the pressure goes up on early picks and #1 especially.
I remember when JUH made his debut AFL.com had an involvement by involvement tracking post.

This year's hyphen JHF has started well, but everyone tells you talls generally take longer not that it stops 'journos' putting them under the microscope.
And of course it seems every #1 pick is a generational talent (eg JUH comparisons to Buddy).

Oh and well done Paddy (but perhaps less of the in game confidence messages to the opposition players).
Btw, maybe that was an investment in securing JUH post buddy. Come to Sydney and escape the Melbourne fishbowl.

As in my post above, I'm not sure he'll make it, and not sure how he'd perform in big moments in finals if he's mentally fragile.
 

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caesar88

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Speaking of number one picks, I used to see Travis Johnstone down at my local cafe when he played for the Lions. He was #1 in the 1997 draft, again to Melbourne, who never fulfilled potential. No guarantees in professional sport or life in general..........

One factor that always gets overlooked with number 1 picks is the team they end up at. Every club bottoms out at some point and we are no exception as 2019 and 2020 shows. But to finish with the wooden spoon and the number one draft pick, the situation at your club has to be pretty dire. A situation that will more often than not involve high turnover of senior coaches (Melbourne), culture issues (Carlton) or mass youth (Gold Coast), things that are not conducive to developing young players in.

There are exceptions - West Coast finished wooden spooners in 2010 and were in a grand final within five years, Brisbane finished wooden spooners in 2017 and were top four within two years. But they managed to avoid those adversities above. Richmond and Melbourne also worked themselves back from multiple wooden spoons to premierships, but it took each of them a decade to do so and they had to burn through an entire generation of top picks before they got there.

So yeah it's hunky dory to console your team's bottom of the ladder finish with the knowledge that you'll get to pick up the best kid in the draft, but you'd wanna make sure your team's actually in a good place to develop that kid in the years that follow, or they'll just end up squandering them.
 

bedford

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I'm going clearly with my post here so bash my opinion if you like, but I'm not so sure about JUH, I think he'll be a bust tbh. Has the physical attributes/talent, but from what I've seen of him, I don't think he's got the mentality of a winner, and will ultimately never reach his expected potential. I think Beveridge is probably trying to toughen him up, but whether his tactic will work time will tell. I don't see him fulfilling his star potential.
Bevo has lost a lot of people at the club , he's turned into a Grant Thomas , wants to control everything .
 

hairy biker

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Sep 24, 2014
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Speaking of number one picks, I used to see Travis Johnstone down at my local cafe when he played for the Lions. He was #1 in the 1997 draft, again to Melbourne, who never fulfilled potential. No guarantees in professional sport or life in general..........
I'm sure that's the prevailing view, but he played over 200 games, won a B&F at Melbourne and finished 4th in the Brownlow in 2002.

He had a fairly laconic style on the ground and seemed a laid back character off it.
Sometimes I think we let our perception of an individual influence our thinking and that allayed with our expectations of a #1 pick seems to have seen Johnstone labelled as an unfulfilled talent.

PS Not a dig at you Wheresbuddy , more a general reflection of the expectations we put on players.
 

Dubai Quacker

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I'm sure that's the prevailing view, but he played over 200 games, won a B&F at Melbourne and finished 4th in the Brownlow in 2002.
He had a fairly laconic style on the ground and seemed a laid back character off it.
Sometimes I think we let our perception of an individual influence our thinking and that allayed with our expectations of a #1 pick seems to have seen Johnstone labelled as an unfulfilled talent.

PS Not a dig at you Wheresbuddy , more a general reflection of the expectations we put on players.
I agree.

Johnstone was a very good player - if he played for a better team, he’d be viewed as a ripping success.
 

Wheresbuddy

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I'm sure that's the prevailing view, but he played over 200 games, won a B&F at Melbourne and finished 4th in the Brownlow in 2002.

He had a fairly laconic style on the ground and seemed a laid back character off it.
Sometimes I think we let our perception of an individual influence our thinking and that allayed with our expectations of a #1 pick seems to have seen Johnstone labelled as an unfulfilled talent.

PS Not a dig at you Wheresbuddy , more a general reflection of the expectations we put on players.
Interestingly a certain Adam Goodes was taken at 43 and one of my all time non swan favourites, Simon Black at 31 in that same year.

You are correct though Hirsute Biker, Johnstone had a decent career. But in the context of all the hope and expectation attached to a number one pick, he most probably didn't quite reach the lofty heights of his supporters.
 

Kirkswan

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I'm sure that's the prevailing view, but he played over 200 games, won a B&F at Melbourne and finished 4th in the Brownlow in 2002.

He had a fairly laconic style on the ground and seemed a laid back character off it.
Sometimes I think we let our perception of an individual influence our thinking and that allayed with our expectations of a #1 pick seems to have seen Johnstone labelled as an unfulfilled talent.

PS Not a dig at you Wheresbuddy , more a general reflection of the expectations we put on players.
I'd call 200 games, a B&F and a top 5 finish in the Brownlow a rippling success!

The lists below are relative the era in which he played, and seem to suggest that at least until 2008, caesar88's theory doesn't hold. Although I would be really interested in the break-down of what happened to the 31% who didn't make 200 games... injury? not good enough? only played 197?

AVERAGE CAREER GAMES PLAYED (1993-2008 AFL National Drafts)

Pick 1:
239.6

Pick 2: 208.3

Pick 3-5: 162.3

Pick 6-10: 122.9

Pick 11-20: 119.2

Pick 21-30: 81.1

CHANCES OF DRAFTING A 200-GAMER (based on 1993-2008 drafts)

Pick 1-2:
69 per cent

Pick 3-5: 38 per cent

Pick 6-10: 28 per cent

Pick 11-20: 27 per cent

Pick 21-30: 13 per cent

Pick 31-50: 15 per cent

Source: Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
 

Dubai Quacker

Wily Old Campaigner
Aug 11, 2019
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I'd call 200 games, a B&F and a top 5 finish in the Brownlow a rippling success!

The lists below are relative the era in which he played, and seem to suggest that at least until 2008, caesar88's theory doesn't hold. Although I would be really interested in the break-down of what happened to the 31% who didn't make 200 games... injury? not good enough? only played 197?

AVERAGE CAREER GAMES PLAYED (1993-2008 AFL National Drafts)

Pick 1:
239.6

Pick 2: 208.3

Pick 3-5: 162.3

Pick 6-10: 122.9

Pick 11-20: 119.2

Pick 21-30: 81.1

CHANCES OF DRAFTING A 200-GAMER (based on 1993-2008 drafts)

Pick 1-2:
69 per cent

Pick 3-5: 38 per cent

Pick 6-10: 28 per cent

Pick 11-20: 27 per cent

Pick 21-30: 13 per cent

Pick 31-50: 15 per cent

Source: Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
The 15% for picks 31-50 would be about 8% if it wasn’t for the Swans.
 

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