dlanod
Moderator
- Sep 14, 2006
- 52,399
- 81,189
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- GWS; CCMariners; NQCowboys; Ravens
- Moderator
- #1
Intro (aka headers to break up a wall of text because I know most of you can't read)
Ah, it's time for the one game each year (two this year! I must remember to save this somewhere) where the two teams I watch week in and out battle for the remnants of my dark and twisted heart.
I say battle, but historically it's been a matchup of streaks - Brisbane winning the first two then GWS surprising people with a big win, culminating in a 6-0 win streak before Brisbane upset them in return and are currently on a 3-0 (regular season) win streak. Every (regular season) game has been decided by over three goals, so it's not like there were particularly close games in there. Usually our games have been decided by half time (3/4 time in the case of 2014 being the exception - again, regular season only). It's just a shame we've never met in a final to see if these trends hold... oh well...
Form (aka WHAT BRISBANE LOST TO HAWTHORN???)
This year looked to continue Brisbane's streak until last week put a frisson of doubt into people's minds. No, I'm not talking about GWS's win over the West Coast Traffic Cones (more on that latter), but the Hawks exposing Brisbane's potential weaknesses.
A big caveat first up: Brisbane's potential weaknesses were exposed and exploited, the umpires were ******* awful, the Lions played a team of duckers, and they lost by less than a goal. At most only one of those will be true this week, because GWS has about as much luck with umpires as the Lions most weeks, and only Toby is known for his ducking acumen.
Doubts aside - on paper this should be an easy victory for Brisbane. Yes, there was last week but GWS so far has still only shown up when playing the bottom of the barrel teams. The measuring stick I've used is "does the team only have a single midfielder?" Gold Coast got shut down with Miller. Adelaide had Keays, but his efforts was overpowered. West Coast technically had Shuey come back in to join Kelly but both have done bugger all this year, and Kelly since joining the Eagles in general.
Midfield (aka Neale vs Green)
GWS has used their midfield dominance to strong effect in each of those. That should not be expected against Brisbane. When you combine a Brownlow medallist, an AA squad mid (should've been selected), and some solid and differentiated third, fourth and fifth options it bats as deep and in a lot more interesting fashion than seventeen inside mids that turn the ball over by foot. Funnily enough Brisbane has had few real complete and dominant midfield displays this year despite that, but they will need to be switched on for at least a majority of this one - and possibly roving Preuss's taps if he returns, as he's been fantastic this year.
Forward and back (aka the bits of the field with the sticks)
The Giants have a solid-ish backline, though its tendancy towards height and that height's tendancy towards flying for everything can be exploited with smart play (unlike what Brisbane demonstrated against the Hawks), and their forward line lives and dies with Hogan - he gives space for Greene to weave his magic, and anyone else is complementary (Himmelberg if he lines up there, Riccardi) or a space hog (Sproule, Brander, Hill) at best. Plus he can mark and kick a few himself. Play Hogan man to man well, and it's not as hard as it used to be as his injuries have sapped him of some of his lower body power, and you can cut down on a lot of danger. Some people argue for Gardiner getting dropped but Toby is the prime reason for his flexibility getting the nod each week - Payne, Adams, or Andrews would be ripe for exposure with his agility on top of his ability in the air, but only Starcevich could match him for power and Gardiner's defensive nous is still better than Starcevich's.
Brisbane's forward line has been piecemeal the last couple of weeks but if the rumour of McStay returning is true, that's a massive in. Hipwood becomes a second option rather than the target and it greatly increases contested marking and more importantly not being outmarked, opening up spilled ball options for McCarthy, Cameron and Zorko (when forward). Taylor has regressed a bit on the Giants side but is still incredibly reliable, and him matching up on Hipwood would be a mismatch at this point. If Haynes is still out, it's a massive blow given Sicily's disgusting game against the Lions demonstrated sometimes the team aren't the smartest going into the forward 50.
Vale Leon
The elephant in the room is the Giants' change in coach. Given McVeigh has been there for most of Cameron's stay, I don't think much is going to change - maybe shuffling some spots like we saw last week (Cogs back into the middle for example), but I'm most curious to see if GWS is still as mentally fragile as they have been this year - get up by a handful of goals and they may fight back, but will run out of legs before getting it done.
In conclusion (aka the end)
Overall I'm still going to double down on a fairly comfortable Brisbane win come the fourth quarter because I haven't seen GWS take it up to a competitor past 3/4 time. They were within a goal at that stage before collapsing against Sydney, Fremantle, and Carlton. This might be the game, under a new coach, with slightly rearranged deckchairs, but we'll have to wait and see.
<spoiler>
Note: in the interests of helping out mods on both boards, this preview is going up on both boards and so is deliberately written with limited use of we and our. Both of you boards know how this works by now and if you're new here, well I'm not - don't be precious.
</spoiler>
Ah, it's time for the one game each year (two this year! I must remember to save this somewhere) where the two teams I watch week in and out battle for the remnants of my dark and twisted heart.
I say battle, but historically it's been a matchup of streaks - Brisbane winning the first two then GWS surprising people with a big win, culminating in a 6-0 win streak before Brisbane upset them in return and are currently on a 3-0 (regular season) win streak. Every (regular season) game has been decided by over three goals, so it's not like there were particularly close games in there. Usually our games have been decided by half time (3/4 time in the case of 2014 being the exception - again, regular season only). It's just a shame we've never met in a final to see if these trends hold... oh well...
Form (aka WHAT BRISBANE LOST TO HAWTHORN???)
This year looked to continue Brisbane's streak until last week put a frisson of doubt into people's minds. No, I'm not talking about GWS's win over the West Coast Traffic Cones (more on that latter), but the Hawks exposing Brisbane's potential weaknesses.
A big caveat first up: Brisbane's potential weaknesses were exposed and exploited, the umpires were ******* awful, the Lions played a team of duckers, and they lost by less than a goal. At most only one of those will be true this week, because GWS has about as much luck with umpires as the Lions most weeks, and only Toby is known for his ducking acumen.
Doubts aside - on paper this should be an easy victory for Brisbane. Yes, there was last week but GWS so far has still only shown up when playing the bottom of the barrel teams. The measuring stick I've used is "does the team only have a single midfielder?" Gold Coast got shut down with Miller. Adelaide had Keays, but his efforts was overpowered. West Coast technically had Shuey come back in to join Kelly but both have done bugger all this year, and Kelly since joining the Eagles in general.
Midfield (aka Neale vs Green)
GWS has used their midfield dominance to strong effect in each of those. That should not be expected against Brisbane. When you combine a Brownlow medallist, an AA squad mid (should've been selected), and some solid and differentiated third, fourth and fifth options it bats as deep and in a lot more interesting fashion than seventeen inside mids that turn the ball over by foot. Funnily enough Brisbane has had few real complete and dominant midfield displays this year despite that, but they will need to be switched on for at least a majority of this one - and possibly roving Preuss's taps if he returns, as he's been fantastic this year.
Forward and back (aka the bits of the field with the sticks)
The Giants have a solid-ish backline, though its tendancy towards height and that height's tendancy towards flying for everything can be exploited with smart play (unlike what Brisbane demonstrated against the Hawks), and their forward line lives and dies with Hogan - he gives space for Greene to weave his magic, and anyone else is complementary (Himmelberg if he lines up there, Riccardi) or a space hog (Sproule, Brander, Hill) at best. Plus he can mark and kick a few himself. Play Hogan man to man well, and it's not as hard as it used to be as his injuries have sapped him of some of his lower body power, and you can cut down on a lot of danger. Some people argue for Gardiner getting dropped but Toby is the prime reason for his flexibility getting the nod each week - Payne, Adams, or Andrews would be ripe for exposure with his agility on top of his ability in the air, but only Starcevich could match him for power and Gardiner's defensive nous is still better than Starcevich's.
Brisbane's forward line has been piecemeal the last couple of weeks but if the rumour of McStay returning is true, that's a massive in. Hipwood becomes a second option rather than the target and it greatly increases contested marking and more importantly not being outmarked, opening up spilled ball options for McCarthy, Cameron and Zorko (when forward). Taylor has regressed a bit on the Giants side but is still incredibly reliable, and him matching up on Hipwood would be a mismatch at this point. If Haynes is still out, it's a massive blow given Sicily's disgusting game against the Lions demonstrated sometimes the team aren't the smartest going into the forward 50.
Vale Leon
The elephant in the room is the Giants' change in coach. Given McVeigh has been there for most of Cameron's stay, I don't think much is going to change - maybe shuffling some spots like we saw last week (Cogs back into the middle for example), but I'm most curious to see if GWS is still as mentally fragile as they have been this year - get up by a handful of goals and they may fight back, but will run out of legs before getting it done.
In conclusion (aka the end)
Overall I'm still going to double down on a fairly comfortable Brisbane win come the fourth quarter because I haven't seen GWS take it up to a competitor past 3/4 time. They were within a goal at that stage before collapsing against Sydney, Fremantle, and Carlton. This might be the game, under a new coach, with slightly rearranged deckchairs, but we'll have to wait and see.
<spoiler>
Note: in the interests of helping out mods on both boards, this preview is going up on both boards and so is deliberately written with limited use of we and our. Both of you boards know how this works by now and if you're new here, well I'm not - don't be precious.
</spoiler>
