gutsroy
Brownlow Medallist
There comes a time in every SC season where, unless you’re up and about and firmly ensconced in the warm and comforting bosom of the top 4 of your cashies or storming the barricades of the top 1k…
….you’ve run out of trades and are clinging on to that spot at the bottom of the eight…
… or you’re out the back in your toolshed plotting your opponents’ demise next year (there’s always next year)…
… there’s no doubt that we all hit a bit of a flat patch. After the highs of Rd 16, Rd 17 went full Byron Pickett on the majority of us, reminding us that 2,600+ scores are the exception, not the rule. .
Trades are as rare as hens’ teeth and / or a Patty Cripps ton, and there’s not really much left to do but set your loops, pick a bloke to don the captain’s armband who will inevitably disappoint you, sit back and rail impotently as Jarrod Witts palms yet another hitout straight into the arms of an opposition MID ffs.
How many tons are you gunna churn out for us on the run home, big Patty?
To make matters worse, the SC board’s equivalent of Johnny Farnham is back peddling the same tired shtick, at best suitable for the crowd down the Patterson Lakes Bowls Club…
The ‘This Time I really mean it, campaigners, I *en Swear’ tour was a ragingshitshow success
..when really, Loosey’s the man the kids want to see, the bloke who puts clackers on seats, the bloke with IT factor…
One for the Simpsons devotees…
That out of the way, let’s get down to brass tacks….
This weekend was a bit rough on most. Many normally reliable VC/C options didn’t fire, most noticeably Lachie Neale with an 89 (Jye Caldwell did a number on Neale and Lachie seemed more inclined to try to unsuccessfully run Caldwell off his feet than engage at the contest). Anyone who was fortunate / clever enough to grab a Clayton Oliver 125 / Touk Miller 135 VC score or pocket Callum Mills’ 138 were 30+ ahead of the pack from the word go. Oliver owners will need to watch and have cover ready, he is set to miss 1-2 with a hand fracture, although it not out of the realms of possibility he pushes through and misses no games. Unless you’re trade-rich, I’m not an avocado for trading him out and back in. Not sure whether that qualifies as a backwards Roughie with a ½ twist or not, will leave that to others to judge.
Who’s the best player in the comp, Clarry? OK, thought so, glad that's settled, thanks, maaaate..
Zach Merrett also continued his surge to the line with a 147 against a weakened Lions outfit, Andrew Sprayshaw went for 132, continuing an excellent season which must have him in Brownlow contention.
It was also a difficult week for high-priced inductees, particularly down back, with top-pricers like Jordan Dawson (80), Jack Crisp (77), Bailey Dale (76), Liam Baker (71) poor, Ollie Wines (69) in the middle and Luke Jackson up forward (65) upon Max’s return both underwhelmed, while serial offender in the burnman stakes, Lachie Whitfield, posted a 46 even Connor Menadue would have turned his nose up at (Bailey J Williams probably would have framed it and put it up on the wall at home).
Haha, yeah, I *ed that bloke’s score up, too. And that lad’s over there, too.
I did not see much of the game, but Isaac Cumming has not had a great time of it since Harry Himmelberg has shifted down back and excelled, the 64 continuing a worrying trend for any still on board the Cumm Express. Himmelberg is one of few relevant players to pick up DPP going into Rd 18, meaning those with, e.g., a Paddy McCartin, could in theory fling the two back and forth across the lines. At 543.3k, though, HH is now priced at or above expected output, he’s not maintaining a 110 clip forever.
Aaron Hall missed, but seems certain to return next week, so he’s a hold for now. There is not another bloke with that scoring upside potential at that price and you'll have already held two weeks.
Yes, Josh Dunkley went for 62 and yes, he is a s**t campaigner, but he’s a s**t campaigner that every man and his dog are running, so he’s basically irrelevant. Jeremy Cameron’s 60 showed that the only good buying to be had with keys is at rock bottom prices, buying at anywhere near their peak is always risky business.
On the ruck front, he won’t have been in too many sides, but Toby Nankervis will miss most of the rest of the H&A, you’d think, with news of a PCL injury trickling through, although there was talk yesterday he might even get up this week(?!?). If you’re cash-strapped, Rohan Marshall (477k, RUC/ FWD DPP, 3-rd avg 109) might be an option, though Ryder may impact his ceililng.
Otherwise, by and large, premos did what premos should and even if many didn’t hit the outrageous heights of last week, sides which avoided the traps tended to be somewhere around the 2400-mark.
Turning our attention to the all-important run home…. The upcoming weeks are not choc full of possibilities, but they aren’t fully bereft of them, either.
Rookies:
On the rookie front, there’s not a lot to report, other than some serious faecal incontinence.
Massimo D’Ambrosio (cork-impacted 36, 195k, BE still -6 for one last week), Jacob Wehr (36, 293.3k with a BE of 46) have little to no mooing left in them, Maurice Rioli (26, 203.1k, BE 63) is fully cooked, and little Mal Rosas (hamstring-impacted -8, leading to a savage 37k price drop to 240.8k and an eye-watering 99 BE) is officially deceased. She was by and large a singular tale of woe.
There were some bright spots, like lion-hearted Paddy McCartin heading to the crease at number 9 in the batting order and proceeding to tonk the everliving * out of the attack for a quickfire 108 and drag faithful owners’ 4WDs out of the bog. He’s been a Bobby Dazzler, he’s got a heart as big as Phar Lap’s and an arse six axe handles wide to boot.
On the buying front, if you’re after a boittom pricer with MID/FWD swing, Josh Carmichael at 102.4k might be an option. He didn’t set the world on fire, but gradually adjusted to the pace and has had a pretty meteoric rise over the last year or so. His JS is anything but assured, he’s not on the bubble for another week in any case. But he could be an option if you need to go early and cheap (I did).
Hewago ‘Ace’ Paul Oea is worth a look at 123.9k for GCS (FWD only). He’s on the bubble and has actually impressed with some nice cameos and some real tow, but with a BE of -13, he’s not going to rise a heap and isn’t getting away from you in a hurry. His JS is iffy, but Rosas' hammy might help even with an imminent Rankine return.
Jase Burgoyne (PTA, 117.3k DEF/MID, super-low BE off the two mid-60’s scores) has the higher scoring potential and is probably the pick of the bunch this week. I hesitate to list Callum M. Brown (GWS DEF/FWD, 182.9k, on the bubble, BE -22) not only because of the elevated price tag and limited production, but also because in the grand GWS tradition, he is playing for an a-hole pissgoblin in the form of Spike McVeigh.
Spike – the thinking women’s dog campaigner
Premos / Midpricers:
There’s enough exposed form and available info on role changes that there are legitimate ‘sideways’ trades, or even trades that free up cash om paper, worth considering:
Patrick Dangerfield (438k MID-only): Largely this season’s forgotten man, the Prince of Floggs Creek shapes as an interesting option for a short-term run at M8/M9. At 438.1k, he’s priced below 90’s and clearly has a 110 burst ceiling in him, even off the limited prep. It might sound crazy, but getting off the Crippstanic before she crashes into an iceberg would net you 70’odd k, which might allow you to get up from a Shorty to the DEF topliner you might be missing in your current portfolio with a view to finals. This is a move for the ambitious or trade-rich., not one to necessarily ponder if you’re running on fumes.
Because who DOESN’T surf in a business suit?
Tim Taranto (441k MID/FWD, BE 37): The People’s Butcher has returned from the episode with Shagger’s back to shake out the cobwebs with a 56 against the Pies (rumour has it he was so intimidated by Baby Daics’ footskills, he shat the bed for an entire week in the lead-up), he has posted a 111 and 109 in his last two. At his price and with a genuine 105 output possibility, he’d be far more attractive to me than a boom/bust type like Heeney, given the latter has had too many busts and not enough booms of late.
Mitch Duncan (486.8k MID/FWD 3-rd avg 104.3) is worth a shout and is one I wish in retrospect I had grabbed recently. His future is a little murky with the imminent Tom Stewart return, but he currently has a nice role in defence which allows him to make full use of his excellent disposal skills.
Bailey Smith (553.7k MID/FWD) does not come cheap, but as a player who should be coming in fresh off the enforced layoff and, you’d think, a point to prove, he might be worthy of considering (if your budget stretches to that outlay). He is another WBD, though, which can cause issues in games they lose big.
Bailey Dale (546.6k DEF, WBD) might seem a strange nomination off the 76, but he’s been very consistent this year, has output close enough to Sicily and Dawson (105 avg on the year) and has a more palatable price tag than the two aforementioned.
Daniel Rioli (484.3k FWD/DEF, RIC) has put together a solid year and is at least worthy of mention, though I honestly wouldn’t be in the market for a FWD/DEF unless there were a McCartin swing consideration. Rioli’s 3-rd avg of 111 is blistering and he’s yet another to blossom with a shift to defence.
Tom Mitchell ((477k, fresh off a 102 and with a reasonable run home) and Matt Crouch (439.6k, back in the team and with a 100 on the weekend) are potential cut-price options, but both come with question marks and I’d take a cheaper Danger than either of them, to be honest, particularly with Crouch’s shaky JS. His teammate, Ben Keays, appeals somewhat at an affordable 544k pricetag and production outlook.
Coming off a big score after to down weeks, one MID premo I’d be pretty keen on if I were after a ceiling pick would be Callum Mills. In pt/$ terms, he’s honestly pretty enticing if you can finagle it. If you don’t already have him and are shopping for ubers, Rory Laird is just about the pick of the bunch, but at a cost of around 670, he's not coming cheap.
Steven May (401.8k DEF, MEL) and Jeremy Howe (378.2k DEF, COL) are both underpriced vs in-season and certainly vs historical averages; if you’re after an option to free up funds from a Short / Ridley type, there may be a play there, but it wouldn’t necessarily bring a point gain on the front end, it would be more how and where you redeploy the cash it freed up.
Three last random blokes to at least mention are Luke Davies-Uniacke (won't be coming cheap at 567k, but he's been on an impressive tear with a 5-rd avg north of 120), Adam Cerra (purely on price – at 360k and off the back of a 103) and Dylan Moore (490.6k, HAW FWD), who’s put together a solid 95-avg on the season and has been going at 112 over the last three after a flat patch, coinciding with #moremidtime. His fixture is reasonably enticing, but on balance I’d still be going Taranto if looking in that price range.
You’ve got to have sufficient trades to even think about options like these, though, and few of us do.
Tactics:
There’s no point in a dunder* like me telling you what to do, and people’s contexts are very specific by now.
The only thing I would leave you with is that once you start to get down to 1-2 trades, there’s often little gain and a lot of backend downside in using them to grab an M9 / D7 / F7 type.
The reason is that you’re often enough grabbing a player a bit below the topliners in the line. That means that if you cop a long-term injury in that line, you’re often stuck using them for several weeks at a -10-20 expected score vs the premo you’ve lost. Whereas if you save the trade, you can go like-for-like.
And apart from that, it also means you’re assuming that you’re capable of predicting where you’ll need the cover. Grabbing a MID/FWD is all well and good, but if you then lose Siciily for the last month, having that extra swinger on the other two lines doesn’t really do a heap of good. Plus, you’ve got to be able to set the right loops, none of which is guaranteed week to week.
The other stuff, like holding back or using trades to improve your side now or later – it all depends on whether you’re focused on league or overall, your matchups, things like that.
Head over to the trades thread and post your options there, you’re bound to get better feedback than any one-size-fits all platitudes I’d be blurting out.
Captain / Vice-Captain Options
I vice-captained Tim English and captained Lachie Neale this week; doling out any advice there would be like asking Greg Norman for tips on how to perform under pressure for Christ’s sake.
Non-Negotiables:
You might have had a s**t year.
You might be out of trades.
You might already be out of contention.
That’s all cool. We buy the ticket, we take the ride.
The only thing which isn’t really cool is tanking and launching a ghost ship on the run home.
Sure, it might not matter much to you, you might still get pumped by 100 points even if you play it perfectly, that happens. But getting pumped by 400, on the other hand, can affect % for other teams scrapping for spots in the top four / eight, and for that reason alone, good folks at home… don’t be that guy.
Think this’ll be the last one of these I do, it’s in much better hands with Wayne and Loosey, to be frank, and I’m sure there are others more than capable of bobbing up and writing a preview up. Have at it, gentleladies and gentlecampaigners, it really is a good release. If anybody wants a sixteen page expose on how the breakeven and pricing formulas work, I’m your guy, but that’s about the extent of it these days.
And with that, good luck in your finals and sock chases. Old Berthold Brecht said it best: Die Mühen der Berge haben wir hinter uns, vor uns liegen die Mühen der Ebenen.
The travails of the mountains are behind us, ahead lies the drudgery of the plains...
….you’ve run out of trades and are clinging on to that spot at the bottom of the eight…
… or you’re out the back in your toolshed plotting your opponents’ demise next year (there’s always next year)…
… there’s no doubt that we all hit a bit of a flat patch. After the highs of Rd 16, Rd 17 went full Byron Pickett on the majority of us, reminding us that 2,600+ scores are the exception, not the rule. .
Trades are as rare as hens’ teeth and / or a Patty Cripps ton, and there’s not really much left to do but set your loops, pick a bloke to don the captain’s armband who will inevitably disappoint you, sit back and rail impotently as Jarrod Witts palms yet another hitout straight into the arms of an opposition MID ffs.
How many tons are you gunna churn out for us on the run home, big Patty?
To make matters worse, the SC board’s equivalent of Johnny Farnham is back peddling the same tired shtick, at best suitable for the crowd down the Patterson Lakes Bowls Club…
The ‘This Time I really mean it, campaigners, I *en Swear’ tour was a raging
..when really, Loosey’s the man the kids want to see, the bloke who puts clackers on seats, the bloke with IT factor…
One for the Simpsons devotees…
That out of the way, let’s get down to brass tacks….
This weekend was a bit rough on most. Many normally reliable VC/C options didn’t fire, most noticeably Lachie Neale with an 89 (Jye Caldwell did a number on Neale and Lachie seemed more inclined to try to unsuccessfully run Caldwell off his feet than engage at the contest). Anyone who was fortunate / clever enough to grab a Clayton Oliver 125 / Touk Miller 135 VC score or pocket Callum Mills’ 138 were 30+ ahead of the pack from the word go. Oliver owners will need to watch and have cover ready, he is set to miss 1-2 with a hand fracture, although it not out of the realms of possibility he pushes through and misses no games. Unless you’re trade-rich, I’m not an avocado for trading him out and back in. Not sure whether that qualifies as a backwards Roughie with a ½ twist or not, will leave that to others to judge.
Who’s the best player in the comp, Clarry? OK, thought so, glad that's settled, thanks, maaaate..
Zach Merrett also continued his surge to the line with a 147 against a weakened Lions outfit, Andrew Sprayshaw went for 132, continuing an excellent season which must have him in Brownlow contention.
It was also a difficult week for high-priced inductees, particularly down back, with top-pricers like Jordan Dawson (80), Jack Crisp (77), Bailey Dale (76), Liam Baker (71) poor, Ollie Wines (69) in the middle and Luke Jackson up forward (65) upon Max’s return both underwhelmed, while serial offender in the burnman stakes, Lachie Whitfield, posted a 46 even Connor Menadue would have turned his nose up at (Bailey J Williams probably would have framed it and put it up on the wall at home).
Haha, yeah, I *ed that bloke’s score up, too. And that lad’s over there, too.
I did not see much of the game, but Isaac Cumming has not had a great time of it since Harry Himmelberg has shifted down back and excelled, the 64 continuing a worrying trend for any still on board the Cumm Express. Himmelberg is one of few relevant players to pick up DPP going into Rd 18, meaning those with, e.g., a Paddy McCartin, could in theory fling the two back and forth across the lines. At 543.3k, though, HH is now priced at or above expected output, he’s not maintaining a 110 clip forever.
Aaron Hall missed, but seems certain to return next week, so he’s a hold for now. There is not another bloke with that scoring upside potential at that price and you'll have already held two weeks.
Yes, Josh Dunkley went for 62 and yes, he is a s**t campaigner, but he’s a s**t campaigner that every man and his dog are running, so he’s basically irrelevant. Jeremy Cameron’s 60 showed that the only good buying to be had with keys is at rock bottom prices, buying at anywhere near their peak is always risky business.
On the ruck front, he won’t have been in too many sides, but Toby Nankervis will miss most of the rest of the H&A, you’d think, with news of a PCL injury trickling through, although there was talk yesterday he might even get up this week(?!?). If you’re cash-strapped, Rohan Marshall (477k, RUC/ FWD DPP, 3-rd avg 109) might be an option, though Ryder may impact his ceililng.
Otherwise, by and large, premos did what premos should and even if many didn’t hit the outrageous heights of last week, sides which avoided the traps tended to be somewhere around the 2400-mark.
Turning our attention to the all-important run home…. The upcoming weeks are not choc full of possibilities, but they aren’t fully bereft of them, either.
Rookies:
On the rookie front, there’s not a lot to report, other than some serious faecal incontinence.
Massimo D’Ambrosio (cork-impacted 36, 195k, BE still -6 for one last week), Jacob Wehr (36, 293.3k with a BE of 46) have little to no mooing left in them, Maurice Rioli (26, 203.1k, BE 63) is fully cooked, and little Mal Rosas (hamstring-impacted -8, leading to a savage 37k price drop to 240.8k and an eye-watering 99 BE) is officially deceased. She was by and large a singular tale of woe.
There were some bright spots, like lion-hearted Paddy McCartin heading to the crease at number 9 in the batting order and proceeding to tonk the everliving * out of the attack for a quickfire 108 and drag faithful owners’ 4WDs out of the bog. He’s been a Bobby Dazzler, he’s got a heart as big as Phar Lap’s and an arse six axe handles wide to boot.
On the buying front, if you’re after a boittom pricer with MID/FWD swing, Josh Carmichael at 102.4k might be an option. He didn’t set the world on fire, but gradually adjusted to the pace and has had a pretty meteoric rise over the last year or so. His JS is anything but assured, he’s not on the bubble for another week in any case. But he could be an option if you need to go early and cheap (I did).
Hewago ‘Ace’ Paul Oea is worth a look at 123.9k for GCS (FWD only). He’s on the bubble and has actually impressed with some nice cameos and some real tow, but with a BE of -13, he’s not going to rise a heap and isn’t getting away from you in a hurry. His JS is iffy, but Rosas' hammy might help even with an imminent Rankine return.
Jase Burgoyne (PTA, 117.3k DEF/MID, super-low BE off the two mid-60’s scores) has the higher scoring potential and is probably the pick of the bunch this week. I hesitate to list Callum M. Brown (GWS DEF/FWD, 182.9k, on the bubble, BE -22) not only because of the elevated price tag and limited production, but also because in the grand GWS tradition, he is playing for an a-hole pissgoblin in the form of Spike McVeigh.
Spike – the thinking women’s dog campaigner
Premos / Midpricers:
There’s enough exposed form and available info on role changes that there are legitimate ‘sideways’ trades, or even trades that free up cash om paper, worth considering:
Patrick Dangerfield (438k MID-only): Largely this season’s forgotten man, the Prince of Floggs Creek shapes as an interesting option for a short-term run at M8/M9. At 438.1k, he’s priced below 90’s and clearly has a 110 burst ceiling in him, even off the limited prep. It might sound crazy, but getting off the Crippstanic before she crashes into an iceberg would net you 70’odd k, which might allow you to get up from a Shorty to the DEF topliner you might be missing in your current portfolio with a view to finals. This is a move for the ambitious or trade-rich., not one to necessarily ponder if you’re running on fumes.
Because who DOESN’T surf in a business suit?
Tim Taranto (441k MID/FWD, BE 37): The People’s Butcher has returned from the episode with Shagger’s back to shake out the cobwebs with a 56 against the Pies (rumour has it he was so intimidated by Baby Daics’ footskills, he shat the bed for an entire week in the lead-up), he has posted a 111 and 109 in his last two. At his price and with a genuine 105 output possibility, he’d be far more attractive to me than a boom/bust type like Heeney, given the latter has had too many busts and not enough booms of late.
Mitch Duncan (486.8k MID/FWD 3-rd avg 104.3) is worth a shout and is one I wish in retrospect I had grabbed recently. His future is a little murky with the imminent Tom Stewart return, but he currently has a nice role in defence which allows him to make full use of his excellent disposal skills.
Bailey Smith (553.7k MID/FWD) does not come cheap, but as a player who should be coming in fresh off the enforced layoff and, you’d think, a point to prove, he might be worthy of considering (if your budget stretches to that outlay). He is another WBD, though, which can cause issues in games they lose big.
Bailey Dale (546.6k DEF, WBD) might seem a strange nomination off the 76, but he’s been very consistent this year, has output close enough to Sicily and Dawson (105 avg on the year) and has a more palatable price tag than the two aforementioned.
Daniel Rioli (484.3k FWD/DEF, RIC) has put together a solid year and is at least worthy of mention, though I honestly wouldn’t be in the market for a FWD/DEF unless there were a McCartin swing consideration. Rioli’s 3-rd avg of 111 is blistering and he’s yet another to blossom with a shift to defence.
Tom Mitchell ((477k, fresh off a 102 and with a reasonable run home) and Matt Crouch (439.6k, back in the team and with a 100 on the weekend) are potential cut-price options, but both come with question marks and I’d take a cheaper Danger than either of them, to be honest, particularly with Crouch’s shaky JS. His teammate, Ben Keays, appeals somewhat at an affordable 544k pricetag and production outlook.
Coming off a big score after to down weeks, one MID premo I’d be pretty keen on if I were after a ceiling pick would be Callum Mills. In pt/$ terms, he’s honestly pretty enticing if you can finagle it. If you don’t already have him and are shopping for ubers, Rory Laird is just about the pick of the bunch, but at a cost of around 670, he's not coming cheap.
Steven May (401.8k DEF, MEL) and Jeremy Howe (378.2k DEF, COL) are both underpriced vs in-season and certainly vs historical averages; if you’re after an option to free up funds from a Short / Ridley type, there may be a play there, but it wouldn’t necessarily bring a point gain on the front end, it would be more how and where you redeploy the cash it freed up.
Three last random blokes to at least mention are Luke Davies-Uniacke (won't be coming cheap at 567k, but he's been on an impressive tear with a 5-rd avg north of 120), Adam Cerra (purely on price – at 360k and off the back of a 103) and Dylan Moore (490.6k, HAW FWD), who’s put together a solid 95-avg on the season and has been going at 112 over the last three after a flat patch, coinciding with #moremidtime. His fixture is reasonably enticing, but on balance I’d still be going Taranto if looking in that price range.
You’ve got to have sufficient trades to even think about options like these, though, and few of us do.
Tactics:
There’s no point in a dunder* like me telling you what to do, and people’s contexts are very specific by now.
The only thing I would leave you with is that once you start to get down to 1-2 trades, there’s often little gain and a lot of backend downside in using them to grab an M9 / D7 / F7 type.
The reason is that you’re often enough grabbing a player a bit below the topliners in the line. That means that if you cop a long-term injury in that line, you’re often stuck using them for several weeks at a -10-20 expected score vs the premo you’ve lost. Whereas if you save the trade, you can go like-for-like.
And apart from that, it also means you’re assuming that you’re capable of predicting where you’ll need the cover. Grabbing a MID/FWD is all well and good, but if you then lose Siciily for the last month, having that extra swinger on the other two lines doesn’t really do a heap of good. Plus, you’ve got to be able to set the right loops, none of which is guaranteed week to week.
The other stuff, like holding back or using trades to improve your side now or later – it all depends on whether you’re focused on league or overall, your matchups, things like that.
Head over to the trades thread and post your options there, you’re bound to get better feedback than any one-size-fits all platitudes I’d be blurting out.
Captain / Vice-Captain Options
I vice-captained Tim English and captained Lachie Neale this week; doling out any advice there would be like asking Greg Norman for tips on how to perform under pressure for Christ’s sake.
Non-Negotiables:
You might have had a s**t year.
You might be out of trades.
You might already be out of contention.
That’s all cool. We buy the ticket, we take the ride.
The only thing which isn’t really cool is tanking and launching a ghost ship on the run home.
Sure, it might not matter much to you, you might still get pumped by 100 points even if you play it perfectly, that happens. But getting pumped by 400, on the other hand, can affect % for other teams scrapping for spots in the top four / eight, and for that reason alone, good folks at home… don’t be that guy.
Think this’ll be the last one of these I do, it’s in much better hands with Wayne and Loosey, to be frank, and I’m sure there are others more than capable of bobbing up and writing a preview up. Have at it, gentleladies and gentlecampaigners, it really is a good release. If anybody wants a sixteen page expose on how the breakeven and pricing formulas work, I’m your guy, but that’s about the extent of it these days.
And with that, good luck in your finals and sock chases. Old Berthold Brecht said it best: Die Mühen der Berge haben wir hinter uns, vor uns liegen die Mühen der Ebenen.
The travails of the mountains are behind us, ahead lies the drudgery of the plains...
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