2022 South Australian Election (March 19)

[Hank Scorpion]

Three weeks to go - a thread for all things related to the upcoming SA election, where Steve Marshall's Liberal government looks to be fighting an uphill battle to win a second term.

2018 saw the Liberals come back as a majority government, after 16 years in the state's poilitical wilderness. They enter the election as a minority after the loss of three MPs to the crossbench throughout the term.

As ever, the elecion will primarily be fought in the suburbs not too far from the CBD, Labor needing to regain four seats from the Liberals and retake Florey from a vacating independent to secure majority government.

Outside of the city, the Liberals will be stretched in contests against independent challengers - including three of its renegade MPs and Port-Pirie based independent Geoff Brock who is challenging the new Deputy Premier after a redistribution.


Election guides:

ABC

Poll Bludger


This morning's Newspoll:

 

[Gough]

SA Libs are the Fredo Corleones of the party.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

SA Libs are the Fredo Corleones of the party.

I don't think Marshall has been too bad.

He showed a lot of independence from Canberra and NSW on covid for example

 

[Gough]

I don't think Marshall has been too bad.

He showed a lot of independence from Canberra and NSW on covid for example

He's had to fight an internal brawl as well for his entire time in office to which can't be easy. But he's incredibly bland and really hasn't been able to cut through with the public and despite infrastructure upgrades around the place he hasn't been able to get the credit for them with the impression that they're legacy projects rather than the work of his government. His front bench for the most part are pretty uninspiring too.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

This morning's Newspoll:

The preferred Premier and Marshall's approval ratings are the most curious to me. Last year Marshall was thrashing Malinauskas in preferred Premier and had a high net approval rating. What happened?

 

[Vindicater]

I live in Davonport which is a fairly safe liberal seat.

Labor have a strong candidate though (former council mayor) who has been running a good campaign.

Still think Murray (liberal) takes it but think it will have a swing against him.

Overall I cant see the libs winning. Labor have been partisan throughout COVID and kept thw powder dry and the SA libs are a rabble.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

The preferred Premier and Marshall's approval ratings are the most curious to me. Last year Marshall was thrashing Malinauskas in preferred Premier and had a high net approval rating. What happened?

Covid. Healthcare was already the #1 issue pre-opening.

Malinauskas carries himself well - looks like a Premier-in-waiting and was smart to keep criticism throughout the pandemic measured, rather than looking like a petulant child 24/7.

He's had to fight an internal brawl as well for his entire time in office to which can't be easy. But he's incredibly bland and really hasn't been able to cut through with the public and despite infrastructure upgrades around the place he hasn't been able to get the credit for them with the impression that they're legacy projects rather than the work of his government. His front bench for the most part are pretty uninspiring too.

Bland is probably the right adjective (not that it should carry much weight.) I don't think he's that bad - doesn't carry the same streak of nastiness that other Libs have, but he's surrounded by turkeys and muppets.

Very much reminds me of Denis Napthine, and his situation before losing after one-term. Not a lot of good news to sell, so all the bad news (public service cuts/privatisation/fights with ambo's) all get amplified in the minds of the voter. Also lost majority mid-term and had a fair share of scandals.

 

[Nelso]

Marshall is ok but his front bench are a bunch of muppets. Chapman is a liability and should have been booted out a long time ago. They have still not announced who will replace Lucas as Treasurer. No one is a suitable option to replace him if the Libs win the election.

Ramping at hospitals is a big issue here and the ambos union are attacking Marshall at every opportunity.

Labor have a lot of ground to make up but it is doable. Malinauskas has played his cards well in the first week of the campaign. Has been positive with every announcement and has not attacked the Liberals in press conferences. Whereas Marshall has been very negative. Kicking the boot into Labor at every opportunity.

 

[Rob R]

State Libs have had serious problems for a while, one prominent member for a long period was best known in thr party for two things: working out how to take power off fellow liberals and hand picking staff based on how they looked and how easy he thought they were.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jascave]

Scott Morrison, his Labor counterpart Anthony Albanese (and to a lesser extent, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews) will be watching the results of the SA state election with more interest than usual.

 

[MrKK]

Both major parties are happy for the unelected Stevens and Spurrier to continue running the state, so why do either of them deserve my vote?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Both major parties are happy for the unelected Stevens and Spurrier to continue running the state, so why do either of them deserve my vote?

Sov Cit?....no, wait I've got it QAnon

 

[Gough]

Some glass jawed local Lib ripped all four of anti Morrison stickers off my bins last night, David Pisoni's stupid face on my stobie pole is protected by law though.

 

[Vindicater]

Some glass jawed local Lib ripped all four of anti Morrison stickers off my bins last night, David Pisoni's stupid face on my stobie pole is protected by law though.

Someone is breaking the law in Davonport though, lots of Steve Murray signs have been vandalised.

 

[Gough]

Someone is breaking the law in Davonport though, lots of Steve Murray sigmelised.

Back in the day some people got very creative with Chris Pyne's propaganda.

 

[nut]

looks like a Premier-in-waiting and was smart to keep criticism throughout the pandemic measured, rather than looking like a petulant child 24/7.

Why bring Mathew Guy into the discussion?

 

[Pie eyed]

SA Libs are the Fredo Corleones of the party.

Wonder if they are up for a spot of fishing????

 

[Pie eyed]

Some glass jawed local Lib ripped all four of anti Morrison stickers off my bins last night, David Pisoni's stupid face on my stobie pole is protected by law though.

stick em on all the mercs around town. Bound to get the campaigners.

 

[Flogwater]

Some glass jawed local Lib ripped all four of anti Morrison stickers off my bins last night, David Pisoni's stupid face on my stobie pole is protected by law though.

Sorry to hear, Gough.

It was probably Nicolle Flint or Penbo.

 

[Rotayjay]

On one hand, the Marshall Liberal government is a first-term government, having defeated the sixteen-year-old Labor government people got tired of. It has also presided over the covid-19 pandemic which has - so far - strongly favoured incumbents in Australia.

South Australia was like Western Australia-lite, with a closed border mostly keeping the virus out until November 2021 when we opened it. The omicron wave is now fading away and life is gradually getting back to normal. We spent only a few weeks in lockdown in total.

On the other hand, the Marshall government has been racked by scandals, and has been reduced from majority to minority government after a raft of MPs quit the party over expenses scandals and various other things I cannot be bothered recalling because there have been so many.

The Malinauskas opposition seems to have hit a big vein of discontent over the handling of the reopening border. The word on the street is that people are simultaneously annoyed at letting two years of closed borders 'go to waste' by letting this horrible virus in too soon, but also annoyed at the continued restrictions. Starting from the winter of 2021, to this day you still need to wear a mask in any indoor public place in South Australia. That's something I personally get very annoyed at, and I think it's time for that sort of stuff to go.

To my knowledge, Labor needs to win four marginal seats in Adelaide to form majority government. On balance, I think Labor will form a minority government having won more seats than the Liberal Party. However I would not be surprised if Steven Marshall is rewarded for SA not becoming a complete covid disaster and gets back in. I can see Labor forming a majority government as well.

If Labor beats the government, it will be the first government in Australia to lose office since the pandemic started. It will be the last state or territory election before Scott Morrison's federal governmemt goes to the polls before the end of May.

 

[MrKK]

On one hand, the Marshall Liberal government is a first-term government, having defeated the sixteen-year-old Labor government people got tired of. It has also presided over the covid-19 pandemic which has - so far - strongly favoured incumbents in Australia.

South Australia was like Western Australia-lite, with a closed border mostly keeping the virus out until November 2021 when we opened it. The omicron wave is now fading away and life is gradually getting back to normal. We spent only a few weeks in lockdown in total.

On the other hand, the Marshall government has been racked by scandals, and has been reduced from majority to minority government after a raft of MPs quit the party over expenses scandals and various other things I cannot be bothered recalling because there have been so many.

The Malinauskas opposition seems to have hit a big vein of discontent over the handling of the reopening border. The word on the street is that people are simultaneously annoyed at letting two years of closed borders 'go to waste' by letting this horrible virus in too soon, but also annoyed at the continued restrictions. Starting from the winter of 2021, to this day you still need to wear a mask in any indoor public place in South Australia. That's something I personally get very annoyed at, and I think it's time for that sort of stuff to go.

To my knowledge, Labor needs to win four marginal seats in Adelaide to form majority government. On balance, I think Labor will form a minority government having won more seats than the Liberal Party. However I would not be surprised if Steven Marshall is rewarded for SA not becoming a complete covid disaster and gets back in. I can see Labor forming a majority government as well.

If Labor beats the government, it will be the first government in Australia to lose office since the pandemic started. It will be the last state or territory election before Scott Morrison's federal governmemt goes to the polls before the end of May.

With the popularity of the numerous independents in their seats it seems likely that a minority government will be the result. Agree that Labor is the only one with a chance of a majority government.

People annoyed at the restrictions are foolish to vote Labor as a result. They've never opposed then and shown no indication that they'd have done it any differently. Liberals stuck between people upset about opening too soon and others upset about not opening enough. C'est la vie when you don't have any core principles to stand by and choose to govern by opinion poll instead.

 

[Rotayjay]

My gut feeling, without much evidence, says that SA (which usually keeps a Labor state government) has now tasted a Liberal government and does not like the taste. I think the Marshall government is done, but only 65% confident.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

My gut feeling, without much evidence, says that SA (which usually keeps a Labor state government) has now tasted a Liberal government and does not like the taste. I think the Marshall government is done, but only 65% confident.

I think Liberal majority is very much gone. And they're still in a bad place even if they can withhold 1-2 marginals - given SA Labor's track record of dealing with conservative indies.

I imagine Dan Cregan will at least hold Kavel, so he could probably be won over with local funding and the continued speakership.

Given they run up so much of their vote total in the country, they really can't expect to win and hold government on their own merit if they're losing 2-3 of these each election.

 

[aCunningPlan]

Is this a Napthine-type situation where no vision and endless scandals brings down a first term government?

SA is a state that cannot afford to stand still, let alone go backwards. They require a government that will act just to keep up.

 

[Gough]

Is this a Napthine-type situation where no vision and endless scandals brings down a first term government?

They've tried to piggyback through their term opening new projects that Labor funded while losing their Parliamentary majority and having a no holds barred internal shitfight instead of governing. Their election policy seems to be hoping nobody noticed.