List Mgmt. 2022 Trade and Free Agency Thread

[dlanod]

I know it’s been the rule for a couple of years but I don’t get why you can only take the number of picks that you have spaces. What does it matter? If you don’t use those picks, everyone moves up. It all comes out in the wash.

In the early days a few of the teams (us and GWS mainly) stocked up on huge numbers of late picks to meet early bids, which wasn't the intent of the system. For example you could match a bid at pick 6 by giving up seven picks in the 50s, which was very easy to generate and blatantly not reasonable value like the system was intended to provide. You can still do this now, but it means having seven list spots free which means it's not really an abuse case now - more just circumstances.

 

[dlanod]

The McStay one is fascinating.
I believe the offer he has on the table from Collingwood is a 5 year term and triggered for him to earn $600K each year. That's a fantastic offer to someone who has never played the #1 key forward role in the time i have seen him move into the forward line. Should McStay take accept the offer, Collingwood will be looking at McStay playing the #1 Key Forward role and he will more than likely have the oppositions best defender every week.....not sure he's up for that but also not sure he thinks he would be up for that either.

I was going to say he's played that role before without great results, but then I went back and checked when exactly. 2015, so can't really hold that against him given the general crappiness of the team in general. McStay was our second highest goal kicker... with 19, less than a goal a game.

 

[POBT]

McStay and Mihocek would be an interesting combination for the Pies. I feel like they are on a similar level as solid B grade KPFs. I don't think either is capable of being the dominant #1 key forward but it might work out in some sort of weird democratic way, particularly if they can work alongside a decent forward-ruck as the third tall - a bit like our forward line when it was Dan, Eric and O.

 

[Dalions]

McStay and Mihocek would be an interesting combination for the Pies. I feel like they are on a similar level as solid B grade KPFs. I don't think either is capable of being the dominant #1 key forward but it might work out in some sort of weird democratic way, particularly if they can work alongside a decent forward-ruck as the third tall - a bit like our forward line when it was Dan, Eric and O.

If Fages likes the look of a 2 ruck combo and I do have a tendency to think he does.
Unfortunately, I do think it would be Dan who misses out when all are fit.
So maybe now is a good time for Dan to look at moving on?
If he can get 5yrs at $600k he should seriously consider it.
Not sure what we could offer him, maybe $500k at a stretch.

 

[Fatcat08]

Looking from the outside, money aside I don't really think that a move back to melb as a big clubs number 1 key forward is really the right move for dan. From my admittedly narrow perspective on him as a person I don't think thats the sort of environment that he would thrive in. But at the end of the day that sort of extra money will always be enticing.

If we do do a full ooc cleanout of some of those mid tier guys and replace with draftees that can open some more cash perhaps but we're not getting to that level unfortunately.

 

[davemc_lions]

honestly if Dan offered around a $150k a year more and 5 years
Why not take it..
5 years beats 2-3 at less pay. Remember players have short AFL $ lifes.
I be sad he go if he does.

 

[Clarkythelion]

The McStay one is fascinating.
I believe the offer he has on the table from Collingwood is a 5 year term and triggered for him to earn $600K each year. That's a fantastic offer to someone who has never played the #1 key forward role in the time i have seen him move into the forward line. Should McStay take accept the offer, Collingwood will be looking at McStay playing the #1 Key Forward role and he will more than likely have the oppositions best defender every week.....not sure he's up for that but also not sure he thinks he would be up for that either.

What do you think Mighty, is Collingwood's appetite for another long term deal. Grundy signed long term and dropped off, Moore more recently signed big and seemed to have dropped off. Maynard seems the exception, they have De Grey to sign this year wanting a long term. Dan is now a bit short compared to the up and coming key forwards, do you think the Collywobbles would want to sign Dan long term, possibly see a drop off and still be a key forward short.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Longer term he's probably expendable but will hurt in the short term losing him. Very important to our setup to beat Melbourne's defence.

If he's being offered 600 x 5. I Wonder if he'd accept 450 x 2 and then back his form to make up the 300k over the following 3 years with us or another club desperate for a 3x premiership winning key forward with a norm smith and an AA selection

 

[knaf]

Looking from the outside, money aside I don't really think that a move back to melb as a big clubs number 1 key forward is really the right move for dan. From my admittedly narrow perspective on him as a person I don't think thats the sort of environment that he would thrive in. But at the end of the day that sort of extra money will always be enticing.

If we do do a full ooc cleanout of some of those mid tier guys and replace with draftees that can open some more cash perhaps but we're not getting to that level unfortunately.

We also have to look at who’s coming out of contract and approaching free agency. Did someone post that Hipwood is a FA in 2024? If McStay is being offered the figures suggested, what will Eric be offered? I like Dan and hope he stays but I think Eric is a higher priority to lock up.

 

[POBT]

If Fages likes the look of a 2 ruck combo and I do have a tendency to think he does.
Unfortunately, I do think it would be Dan who misses out when all are fit.
So maybe now is a good time for Dan to look at moving on?
If he can get 5yrs at $600k he should seriously consider it.
Not sure what we could offer him, maybe $500k at a stretch.

We're in a great position where we don't have to overpay anymore. We have the culture and the promise of success - that's going to be enough to entice players to us or keep players here. It will be other clubs paying overs.

So what we can offer v what another club can offer on financial terms is only going to be part of the equation. I'm not too concerned about being outbid because I think our offer carries a non-financial element.

If we are significantly outbid, then the system works and we will need to move on. And the more significant the other offer, the higher our compensation goes.

We shouldn't lowball because that's what causes cultural issues within a group. But if we put a fair offer into Dan, and get blown out of the water, so be it. We'll be worse off, to an extent, but that's the way it's supposed to go with the equalisation measures.

I am finding the prospect of losing a good player much easier to digest now than when we were a terrible side. Back then, it felt like the comp kept kicking us in the guts and we had no way of defending ourselves.

 

[McIvor]

Pies should go moneyball if I have the concept right and go for Shack. Less proven, a lot cheaper and potentially just as effective up forward, albeit a lot softer than Dan. Or even go Rory Lobb

37

Rory Lobb

Age

29

Ht

207cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

0.9

4star

D

11.3

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.3

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

0.6

3star

who wants to come to Melbourne who one of the shows says his girl is from Melbourne and wants to go home. Lobb will be expense compared to Schache tho.

I just dont want Dan to leave or any of my faves inlcuding young Deven.

 

[Tom14]

Pies should go moneyball if I have the concept right and go for Shack. Less proven, a lot cheaper and potentially just as effective up forward, albeit a lot softer than Dan. Or even go Rory Lobb who wants to come to Melbourne who one of the shows says his girl is from Melbourne and wants to go home. Lobb will be expense compared to Schache tho.

I just dont want Dan to leave or any of my faves inlcuding young Deven.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Nah, even potentially he isn't close.

 

[Mighty Lions]

What do you think Mighty, is Collingwood's appetite for another long term deal. Grundy signed long term and dropped off, Moore more recently signed big and seemed to have dropped off. Maynard seems the exception, they have De Grey to sign this year wanting a long term. Dan is now a bit short compared to the up and coming key forwards, do you think the Collywobbles would want to sign Dan long term, possibly see a drop off and still be a key forward short.

For Collingwood to offer what they have, they must have thoughts that McStay could hold down the #1 KPF spot. To offer 6 years is probably the carrot to get McStay to move back to Melbourne. He will be 28 years old next year so a 6 year contract will see his career out. In my opinion, the 2 things to stop him moving back there are:
1. Looking at a real opportunity of winning a flag at Brisbane while at the Pies it would seem unlikely at this stage.
2. Knowing he will get the #1 defender each week should he accept the offer and having to deal with the pressure of expectation that will bring from the Collingwood faithful.

 

[Mighty Lions]

Longer term he's probably expendable but will hurt in the short term losing him. Very important to our setup to beat Melbourne's defence.

If he's being offered 600 x 5. I Wonder if he'd accept 450 x 2 and then back his form to make up the 300k over the following 3 years with us or another club desperate for a 3x premiership winning key forward with a norm smith and an AA selection

Agree that the 3 pronged tall forward attack is a huge weapon for us. Having those 3 fit and firing along with Cameron, McCarthy, Rayner, Bailey would be a nightmare for any defense in any side including Melbourne's. It could very well be the difference in winning & losing the flag.
I think (& again only my opinion) Fagan will not play a 2 ruck combo come the last few home & away games and plan on having 1 ruckman & the 3 talls in the forward line with either Joey or McStay giving our sole ruckman a breather for 5-7 minutes a quarter.
I guess McStay needs to weight up long term stability or short term success. Both have their positive & negative sides...I do believe the $ he has been offered is performance based and he needs to step up to earn the maximum. Probably Brisbane's offer could be the better base salary with incentives not being as juicy as the Pies offer. It will be interesting for sure.

 

[Mighty Lions]

We also have to look at who’s coming out of contract and approaching free agency. Did someone post that Hipwood is a FA in 2024? If McStay is being offered the figures suggested, what will Eric be offered? I like Dan and hope he stays but I think Eric is a higher priority to lock up.

Hippy out of contract end of next year and will also be a restricted free agent.

 

[Warwick]

The other big draw card we have as a destination, which we didn't have previously (or at least since the low flying planes and IVs at half time during our premiership years) is a gun medical set up.

I think there is a component of good luck, but surely getting infirms like Joe, Linc, Cockatoo, Adams back on the paddock regularly hasn't gone unnoticed by rival players.

 

[LIONS08]

Hippy out of contract end of next year and will also be a restricted free agent.

I believe Dan will stay and I also think there is zero chance hippy leaves! He has already been working a bit with our recruiting/list management in preparation for a career post footy. The house that he and his partner are building… there is no way I would leave haha he will be compensated fairly and stick around also!

 

[bungalow_bill]

Hip is also a local boy so zero go home factor

 

[Grasshopper17]

Good discussion. I too hope McStay decides to stay put but it's not looking good, especially considering that in recent seasons we have signed literally everyone we wanted to by like August.

My question, and I may be misinformed but it's based on what I've been reading in the trade articles on the AFL website, is that McStay is not in our 25% best paid players, therefore would be an UNrestricted free agent. Is that correct? If it is, does that therefore mean that we would have no right to match a bit from a rival club AND would receive no compensation in the draft?

 

[Mighty Lions]

Hip is also a local boy so zero go home factor

Tend to agree but we wont get him for a Pie & a Can Of Coke. Like all contracts for players in his career at 24/25 years old, it will need to be incrementally larger than last year.

 

[Mighty Lions]

Good discussion. I too hope McStay decides to stay put but it's not looking good, especially considering that in recent seasons we have signed literally everyone we wanted to by like August.

My question, and I may be misinformed but it's based on what I've been reading in the trade articles on the AFL website, is that McStay is not in our 25% best paid players, therefore would be an UNrestricted free agent. Is that correct? If it is, does that therefore mean that we would have no right to match a bit from a rival club AND would receive no compensation in the draft?

I would be surprised if McStay were to be in the top 25% best paid on our list. Not sure about the other questions.

 

[Cubs2Lions]

Good discussion. I too hope McStay decides to stay put but it's not looking good, especially considering that in recent seasons we have signed literally everyone we wanted to by like August.

My question, and I may be misinformed but it's based on what I've been reading in the trade articles on the AFL website, is that McStay is not in our 25% best paid players, therefore would be an UNrestricted free agent. Is that correct? If it is, does that therefore mean that we would have no right to match a bit from a rival club AND would receive no compensation in the draft?

I think you are talking about Darcy Gardiner instead, in regards to him being in our 25% best paid players.

 

[Tom14]

Good discussion. I too hope McStay decides to stay put but it's not looking good, especially considering that in recent seasons we have signed literally everyone we wanted to by like August.

My question, and I may be misinformed but it's based on what I've been reading in the trade articles on the AFL website, is that McStay is not in our 25% best paid players, therefore would be an UNrestricted free agent. Is that correct? If it is, does that therefore mean that we would have no right to match a bit from a rival club AND would receive no compensation in the draft?

Not quite right, yes we would have no ability to match, but we would be able to compo if he left.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I think you are talking about Darcy Gardiner instead, in regards to him being in our 25% best paid players.

No. Gardiner IS in our top 25% best paid players (which was a surprise to me, but anyway). But McStay is not - hence my question.

Not quite right, yes we would have no ability to match, but we would be able to compo if he left.

OK thank you. This is not so bad I suppose. Still hope he stays, but I guess we need some draft picks this year if we're going to have enough points for Ashcroft.

 

[LIONS08]

Good discussion. I too hope McStay decides to stay put but it's not looking good, especially considering that in recent seasons we have signed literally everyone we wanted to by like August.

My question, and I may be misinformed but it's based on what I've been reading in the trade articles on the AFL website, is that McStay is not in our 25% best paid players, therefore would be an UNrestricted free agent. Is that correct? If it is, does that therefore mean that we would have no right to match a bit from a rival club AND would receive no compensation in the draft?

Mcstay is really family-oriented and his last two contracts he has used the bye to head back to Melbourne to see his family and talk through the options. My guess is that post bye we will have a better idea. Like what has been mentioned before, dating a qld girl and recently purchased a home together. From all I have heard I would certainly be surprised if he left.