2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

Who will win the Victorian election

  • Labor

    Votes: 32 86.5%
  • Coalition

    Votes: 5 13.5%

  • Total voters
    37

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Jascave

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Now that we have got the federal election out of the way, how do you think the Victorian election will pan out?

Will Daniel Andrews cop the brunt of the punishment for the lockdowns and lose to the Coalition, or could Labor win but in a very reduced majoritiy?

Discuss
 

Ned_Flanders

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Haven't you started a thread on this already Jascave?

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Leon

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Andrews and ALP will be returned with reduced majority.


1. ALP current majority is too big for the Liberals to win.


2. Further to the above point, the Liberals and Matthew Guy are complete duds.


3. Andrews has copped some backlash and diminished popularity the past few years, however he is still generally pretty popular and moreover is much more popular than Guy.


4. Expecting Labor to lose some seats on the back of Andrews’ backlash.


5. As with the Federal election, expect the Teals and Greens to have a good day. Some senior MP’s in both ALP and the Liberals should be very nervous.


6. When Labor and Andrews win, will unashamedly be keen for the epic meltdowns of Panahi, Bolt, Credlin, Murray and all the Sky talking heads who’ve been screeching endlessly about Victoria being a dictatorship.
 

Jascave

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I
Andrews and ALP will be returned with reduced majority.


1. ALP current majority is too big for the Liberals to win.


2. Further to the above point, the Liberals and Matthew Guy are complete duds.


3. Andrews has copped some backlash and diminished popularity the past few years, however he is still generally pretty popular and moreover is much more popular than Guy.


4. Expecting Labor to lose some seats on the back of Andrews’ backlash.


5. As with the Federal election, expect the Teals and Greens to have a good day. Some senior MP’s in both ALP and the Liberals should be very nervous.


6. When Labor and Andrews win, will unashamedly be keen for the epic meltdowns of Panahi, Bolt, Credlin, Murray and all the Sky talking heads who’ve been screeching endlessly about Victoria being a dictatorship.
The only hope the Vic Liberals will have is if the election result becomes a hung parliament. And it will be interesting to see how Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy will deal with the kingmakers who will decide who gets to govern Victoria for the next 4 years.
 

William Wonka

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Now that we have got the federal election out of the way, how do you think the Victorian election will pan out?

Will Daniel Andrews cop the brunt of the punishment for the lockdowns and lose to the Coalition, or could Labor win but in a very reduced majoritiy?

Discuss
Seen the latest polling?
Looking like an increased majority atm
Screenshot_20220606-183143_Chrome.jpg
 

Hank Scorpion

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Seen the latest polling?
Looking like an increased majority atm
View attachment 1418120

I think it's quite feasible they have large-ish swings against them in their North/West heartland without losing seats, probably an overall 2PP swing against them, but still pick up 1 or 2 of Caulfield/Sandringham/Glen Waverley and it pretty much remains status quo.

Labor should win, though I fear that complacency is setting in... The conservative types are going to go 10 times harder than they did last time.

Hopefully the federal result has dampened some of that. If Green momentum carries through the year; that'd be a nicer theme. They still have five very winnable target seats and a few others they will probably break 20% in (without winning... yet?) - Footscray, Albert Park, Hawthorn, even Monbulk.
 
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QuietB

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Liberals are still running the East West Link from what I can tell. there is new angle is Albo promised to fund it but now he is PM has backflipped.

All the Liberals are going to do is whinge - as usual.

Also, the Liberal supporting cast are outright muppets.
 

madmug

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Andrews and ALP will be returned with reduced majority.


1. ALP current majority is too big for the Liberals to win.


2. Further to the above point, the Liberals and Matthew Guy are complete duds.


3. Andrews has copped some backlash and diminished popularity the past few years, however he is still generally pretty popular and moreover is much more popular than Guy.


4. Expecting Labor to lose some seats on the back of Andrews’ backlash.


5. As with the Federal election, expect the Teals and Greens to have a good day. Some senior MP’s in both ALP and the Liberals should be very nervous.


6. When Labor and Andrews win, will unashamedly be keen for the epic meltdowns of Panahi, Bolt, Credlin, Murray and all the Sky talking heads who’ve been screeching endlessly about Victoria being a dictatorship.
What policies will the Teals & Greens run on?

The Federal election had different drivers. ICAC & Climate change perhaps won't be the big issues we just saw.
 

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Jascave

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What policies will the Teals & Greens run on?

The Federal election had different drivers. ICAC & Climate change perhaps won't be the big issues we just saw.
It'll be interesting to see how many seats the minor parties like the 'Teals'/independents, the Greens, Reason Party and the Victorians Party pick up at this year's state election.
 

The Punter

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Anti-corruption is an issue in Victoria, but here it is a problem for Labor, so I'm not holding my breath for the same party independent movement to be running against Labor in safe seats on that issue. The reason why the teals ran where they did was because they could win - they didn't run in Higgins because Labor were competitive.

The Victorian Party is a story, but I'm not sure how well funded they are and current rules make it difficult for a new upstart state-based party to become well-funded.

I also feel that presented with a parliament like the one Julia Gillard navigated between 2010-2013, Daniel Andrews would struggle. He's already thrown out one major reform this year because negotiating a better outcome was either too hard or gave credibility to others in the parliament (the planning reforms). At no stage did Labor suggest they were anything but an excellent idea - it was just too hard. A hung parliament is not the ideal Daniel Andrews situation.
 

Gavin Excell

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After their failure to get their man over the line in Canberra, the heat is on Murdoch to bounce back in Victoria
Herald Sun has cranked up its anti Labor rhetoric but will they deliver?
 

Jascave

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Anti-corruption is an issue in Victoria, but here it is a problem for Labor, so I'm not holding my breath for the same party independent movement to be running against Labor in safe seats on that issue. The reason why the teals ran where they did was because they could win - they didn't run in Higgins because Labor were competitive.

The Victorian Party is a story, but I'm not sure how well funded they are and current rules make it difficult for a new upstart state-based party to become well-funded.

I also feel that presented with a parliament like the one Julia Gillard navigated between 2010-2013, Daniel Andrews would struggle. He's already thrown out one major reform this year because negotiating a better outcome was either too hard or gave credibility to others in the parliament (the planning reforms). At no stage did Labor suggest they were anything but an excellent idea - it was just too hard. A hung parliament is not the ideal Daniel Andrews situation.
I reckon a hung parliament would benefit Matthew Guy more than Daniel Andrews. If it does come down to a hung parliament situation, it'll be interesting to see who is the better negotiators with the kingmakers-Guy or Andrews.
 

Jascave

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After their failure to get their man over the line in Canberra, the heat is on Murdoch to bounce back in Victoria
Herald Sun has cranked up its anti Labor rhetoric but will they deliver?
And what will happen if Daniel Andrews win again on November 26-how would the Herald Sun, 3AW with Neil Mitchell and the Sky News people like Andrew Bolt, Peta Credlin, Paul Murray respond to the result? Would love to be a fly-on-the-wall in the Herald Sun editorial offices on election night when the ABC's Antony Green calls a win for Labor.
 

Ned_Flanders

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Anti-corruption is an issue in Victoria, but here it is a problem for Labor, so I'm not holding my breath for the same party independent movement to be running against Labor in safe seats on that issue. The reason why the teals ran where they did was because they could win - they didn't run in Higgins because Labor were competitive.

The Victorian Party is a story, but I'm not sure how well funded they are and current rules make it difficult for a new upstart state-based party to become well-funded.

I also feel that presented with a parliament like the one Julia Gillard navigated between 2010-2013, Daniel Andrews would struggle. He's already thrown out one major reform this year because negotiating a better outcome was either too hard or gave credibility to others in the parliament (the planning reforms). At no stage did Labor suggest they were anything but an excellent idea - it was just too hard. A hung parliament is not the ideal Daniel Andrews situation.

the teals should do well in the traditional liberal seats the alp picked up last election. they will never stay alp for more than a day or two, and a teal may appeal more if they are still pissed at the state libs

my gut is the victoria party succeeding will depend upon its policies once they get a proper examination. im not sure yet if they are a genuine third option as they are portraying, or an antivaxxer mob with smarter marketing (time will tell as always)
 

Golden_6

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Anti-corruption is an issue in Victoria, but here it is a problem for Labor, so I'm not holding my breath for the same party independent movement to be running against Labor in safe seats on that issue. The reason why the teals ran where they did was because they could win - they didn't run in Higgins because Labor were competitive.

The Victorian Party is a story, but I'm not sure how well funded they are and current rules make it difficult for a new upstart state-based party to become well-funded.


I also feel that presented with a parliament like the one Julia Gillard navigated between 2010-2013, Daniel Andrews would struggle. He's already thrown out one major reform this year because negotiating a better outcome was either too hard or gave credibility to others in the parliament (the planning reforms). At no stage did Labor suggest they were anything but an excellent idea - it was just too hard. A hung parliament is not the ideal Daniel Andrews situation.
Never heard of them so I decided to look up their website. Very very minimal policies on their website other than a two paragraph blurb. They'll have to do much better than that to get me to consider my vote. I'd be open to a third party as long as they aren't infiltrated by freedom and anti-vax types. From their website.

"The devastating impact of lock-downs, restrictions and vaccine mandates and passports was felt across Victorian Society, negatively impacting and touching everyone in the State from all backgrounds and areas and destroying many lives. The Party’s founders were motivated by their determination to ensure that the Victorian people are never again subjected to such draconian “emergency” restrictions and government overreach."
 

The Punter

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Look, the Teal Party are very smart, well funded and know what they are doing. They will run in Kew because one of the big two aren't competitive there, but won't run in Hawthorn where there is a sitting ALP member and a high-profile Liberal candidate. They're the anti-UAP in that respect.

The Victoria Party is an unknown quantity. We don't know how well they are funded, they have no track record before this election (remember Zali Steggall had already worked in Warringah in 2019) and we don't know exactly if they will target seats or just run the same everywhere.
 

Ned_Flanders

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Look, the Teal Party are very smart, well funded and know what they are doing. They will run in Kew because one of the big two aren't competitive there, but won't run in Hawthorn where there is a sitting ALP member and a high-profile Liberal candidate. They're the anti-UAP in that respect.

The Victoria Party is an unknown quantity. We don't know how well they are funded, they have no track record before this election (remember Zali Steggall had already worked in Warringah in 2019) and we don't know exactly if they will target seats or just run the same everywhere.

Hawthorn will go liberal, just as others like burwood will

if the teals are an anti libs force as you say, why would they just sit on their hands and see it go back to the libs?
 

The Punter

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Hawthorn will go liberal, just as others like burwood will

if the teals are an anti libs force as you say, why would they just sit on their hands and see it go back to the libs?

I think that is a slight mischaracterisation of my point. The Teal Party will run where they can win, which happens to be in the inner city seats that have historically been won by the Liberal Party at just about all elections. Hawthorn and say Prahran, while both south of the Yarra, don't qualify as they are now swinging marginal seats before the Teal Party came along. I would think Burwood would be another stay away for them. Bentleigh would be interesting considering what the margin is now.

The Victorian Party may decide to pursue a similar strategy in Northern and Western Suburb seats that have always voted Labor, but it is well established that the Liberal Party have a problem internally with running dead the way the ALP has repeatedly and effectively done. But the very name of the party makes me a little suspicious might pursue a strategy closer to the UAP, which doesn't work for these insurgency types. I remain to be convinced they can do what others have done, but I am more ready to be convinced than I was two months ago.