2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

[Ned_Flanders]

I think that is a slight mischaracterisation of my point. The Teal Party will run where they can win, which happens to be in the inner city seats that have historically been won by the Liberal Party at just about all elections. Hawthorn and say Prahran, while both south of the Yarra, don't qualify as they are now swinging marginal seats before the Teal Party came along. I would think Burwood would be another stay away for them. Bentleigh would be interesting considering what the margin is now.

The Victorian Party may decide to pursue a similar strategy in Northern and Western Suburb seats that have always voted Labor, but it is well established that the Liberal Party have a problem internally with running dead the way the ALP has repeatedly and effectively done. But the very name of the party makes me a little suspicious might pursue a strategy closer to the UAP, which doesn't work for these insurgency types. I remain to be convinced they can do what others have done, but I am more ready to be convinced than I was two months ago.

i said this before and everyone ignored me, 7 of 28 teals succeeded - its not a blank cheque for success

if you dont have the local community connection, the charisma to generate free media, and the ability to generate grassroots support - you're ****ed regardless of funding.

On election day, over half the Ryan volunteers at my booth were from outside the electorate. They joined her because they believed in her - not the person in their own electorate.

 

[The Punter]

i said this before and everyone ignored me, 7 of 28 teals succeeded - its not a blank cheque for success

if you dont have the local community connection, the charisma to generate free media, and the ability to generate grassroots support - you're ducked regardless of funding.

On election day, over half the Ryan volunteers at my booth were from outside the electorate. They joined her because they believed in her - not the person in their own electorate.

Apologies if I was one doing the ignoring, but for a political party running at elections outside of the Liberals, Labor and the Nationals, 7 out of 28 is very successful. If they ran in 28 seats in the Victorian election and won 7, they would recognised as a new force in politics and rightfully so. The Greens Party have been at it for decades and have 3 MLAs, and have won a different seat to those three one other time, at a by-election where the Liberals didn't run at all.

 

[Gough]

i said this before and everyone ignored me, 7 of 28 teals succeeded - its not a blank cheque for success

if you dont have the local community connection, the charisma to generate free media, and the ability to generate grassroots support - you're ducked regardless of funding.

On election day, over half the Ryan volunteers at my booth were from outside the electorate. They joined her because they believed in her - not the person in their own electorate.

A lack of independents may be all that stands between the Vic Libs and the sort of outcome we saw in WA. Plenty of people will have watched the Federal election and wondered out loud what sort of effect the rise of the independents could have at a state level. Already I wouldn't be betting against a female independent replacing Vicki Chapman in the Bragg by election and I could see similar results happening in other states.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Apologies if I was one doing the ignoring, but for a political party running at elections outside of the Liberals, Labor and the Nationals, 7 out of 28 is very successful. If they ran in 28 seats in the Victorian election and won 7, they would recognised as a new force in politics and rightfully so. The Greens Party have been at it for decades and have 3 MLAs, and have won a different seat to those three one other time, at a by-election where the Liberals didn't run at all.

agree its a massive outcome, but people here and in the media have been fapping over the teals as if they are a guaranteed win when they run

Also remember these voters are liberals. This was a protest vote and nothing more. They will return to the libs once the pentacostal anti trans/gay stuff ends, and they start taking climate change seriously

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

I think it's quite feasible they have large-ish swings against them in their North/West heartland without losing seats, probably an overall 2PP swing against them, but still pick up 1 or 2 of Caulfield/Sandringham/Glen Waverley and it pretty much remains status quo.

I can see the same. Particularly in the growth areas. People are getting tired of waiting for better infrastructure and feel like they've been taken for granted

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Never heard of them so I decided to look up their website. Very very minimal policies on their website other than a two paragraph blurb. They'll have to do much better than that to get me to consider my vote. I'd be open to a third party as long as they aren't infiltrated by freedom and anti-vax types. From their website.

"The devastating impact of lock-downs, restrictions and vaccine mandates and passports was felt across Victorian Society, negatively impacting and touching everyone in the State from all backgrounds and areas and destroying many lives. The Party’s founders were motivated by their determination to ensure that the Victorian people are never again subjected to such draconian “emergency” restrictions and government overreach."

Yeah, they sound like anti-vax/sovereign citizen nutters.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

agree its a massive outcome, but people here and in the media have been fapping over the teals as if they are a guaranteed win when they run

Also remember these voters are liberals. This was a protest vote and nothing more. They will return to the libs once the pentacostal anti trans/gay stuff ends, and they start taking climate change seriously

To characterise the teal independent voters as LNP voters is wrong - most of their primary vote likely came from ALP/Greens voters with enough LNP voters to get them over the line.

 

[Golden_6]

To characterise the teal independent voters as LNP voters is wrong - most of their primary vote likely came from ALP/Greens voters with enough LNP voters to get them over the line.

You're right and it's completely lazy to call it as such. Take Kooyong for example. It's quite clearly ALP/Greens voters with a smattering of LNP thrown in.

Swings:
Independent (Ryan) +40%
LNP -6%
ALP -11%
Greens - 15%
Independent (Yates) -9%

 

[Demonic Ascent]

You're right and it's completely lazy to call it as such. Take Kooyong for example. It's quite clearly ALP/Greens voters with a smattering of LNP thrown in.

Swings:
Independent (Ryan) +40%
LNP -6%
ALP -11%
Greens - 15%
Independent (Yates) -9%

Yep I posted this in the election thread as well going through all the swings in the independents seats - it also explains the lower ALP primary vote.

 

[Golden_6]

Yep I posted this in the election thread as well going through all the swings in the independents seats - it also explains the lower ALP primary vote.

And it was clearly an ALP strategy. They didn't even try in those clear Teal possibilities.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

To characterise the teal independent voters as LNP voters is wrong - most of their primary vote likely came from ALP/Greens voters with enough LNP voters to get them over the line.

thats ignoring the trend

2016: 58.2% primary, 63.3% TPP
2019: 49.4% primary, 57.7%TPP
2022: 42.7% primary, 47.1% TPP

thats a fall of 15.4% of the primary and 16.2% TPP

the 15% is what delivered Ryan the win, because if they stay liberal everything is a non issue

 

[Ned_Flanders]

And it was clearly an ALP strategy. They didn't even try in those clear Teal possibilities.

yep, ALP ran deader in Kooyong than Freo in September

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

The Coalition won't win in Victoria until they stand for something other than "not being Labor".

And they don't deserve to.

 

[The Punter]

It's easier from over there.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

It's easier from over there.

????

 

[The Punter]

????

The post above mine doesn't indicate what he'd like the Liberal Party to stand for. I'm tired of hearing sentiments like that - they are usually backed up with thoughts about moving further away from where most voters are.

You don't like what the Liberal Party is doing? Join up and attempt to change things from the inside.

But it's easier from where he is.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The post above mine doesn't indicate what he'd like the Liberal Party to stand for. I'm tired of hearing sentiments like that - they are usually backed up with thoughts about moving further away from where most voters are.

You don't like what the Liberal Party is doing? Join up and attempt to change things from the inside.

But it's easier from where he is.

FWIW i agree with this

the reason the vic libs were able to be dominated by the evans in certain branches is that they were the only ones joining

Its been reported ALP membership is down significantly this year (although you always get people late on their renewals) at about 20-30% (forget exact number). Will be interesting to see how libs are fairing, given grassroots was a key plank of a lot of the 2022 federal wins

 

[William Wonka]

agree its a massive outcome, but people here and in the media have been fapping over the teals as if they are a guaranteed win when they run

Also remember these voters are liberals. This was a protest vote and nothing more. They will return to the libs once the pentacostal anti trans/gay stuff ends, and they start taking climate change seriously

To characterise the teal independent voters as LNP voters is wrong - most of their primary vote likely came from ALP/Greens voters with enough LNP voters to get them over the line.

D.A is absolutely correct.
All the Teals need is to take smallish % of Liberal votes and they can do this by running on issues that wedge the LNP.
All they need to do to get ALP/GRN votes and preferences is not be the LNP.

It's so so beautiful

 

[Ned_Flanders]

D.A is absolutely correct.
All the Teals need is to take smallish % of Liberal votes and they can do this by running on issues that wedge the LNP.
All they need to do to get ALP/GRN votes and preferences is not be the LNP.

It's so so beautiful

The death of the liberals to the teals is not happening

 

[Blue1980]

Never heard of them so I decided to look up their website. Very very minimal policies on their website other than a two paragraph blurb. They'll have to do much better than that to get me to consider my vote. I'd be open to a third party as long as they aren't infiltrated by freedom and anti-vax types. From their website.

"The devastating impact of lock-downs, restrictions and vaccine mandates and passports was felt across Victorian Society, negatively impacting and touching everyone in the State from all backgrounds and areas and destroying many lives. The Party’s founders were motivated by their determination to ensure that the Victorian people are never again subjected to such draconian “emergency” restrictions and government overreach."

Sounds like an anti vax freedom party to me

 

[Blue1980]

agree its a massive outcome, but people here and in the media have been fapping over the teals as if they are a guaranteed win when they run

Also remember these voters are liberals. This was a protest vote and nothing more. They will return to the libs once the pentacostal anti trans/gay stuff ends, and they start taking climate change seriously

They maybe waiting for that from the Libs with Dutton in charge federally. They are in double down mode.

Though Guy seems keen on being more moderate as seen by booting out Bernie Finn

 

[William Wonka]

The death of the liberals to the teals is not happening

Are yu familiar with the split of the ALP in the 50s?
The DLP only ever took 10-15% of the vote but it was enough to keep Labor from power for a generation.
ON taking the blue collar racist vote from the ALP also gave Howard two extra terms.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Are yu familiar with the split of the ALP in the 50s?
The DLP only ever took 10-15% of the vote but it was enough to keep Labor from power for a generation.
ON taking the blue collar racist vote from the ALP also gave Howard two extra terms.

this is not the dlp for the libs. ffs the issue with the dlp wasnt the split, it was their preferences never went back to the alp. teals will preference the libs, and as ive said from the start - push comes to shove they will support a lib minority govt over a labor one

they are more liberal than they are labor

 

[William Wonka]

this is not the dlp for the libs. ffs the issue with the dlp wasnt the split, it was their preferences never went back to the alp. teals will preference the libs, and as ive said from the start - push comes to shove they will support a lib minority govt over a labor one

they are more liberal than they are labor

The Teals preferences will never be distributed if they win.
Which they will.
Off ALP and Green voters and preferences

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The Teals preferences will never be distributed if they win.
Which they will.
Off ALP and Green voters and preferences

7 out of 28 won - stop this s**t that they always win