2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

[Ross]

Not really seeing anything yet that says any kind of independent wave will happen in the lower house. I'm worried that the upper house will be a total debacle though with some total clowns getting voted in through group voting tickets, but if that happens then Labor only has themselves to blame because they've done nothing about it

 

[kalex6251]

^^^

kevin bonham has repeatedly labelled electoral laws governing the victorian upper house an absolute joke .... the worst in australia by a country effen mile

 

[Home Alone]

Not really seeing anything yet that says any kind of independent wave will happen in the lower house. I'm worried that the upper house will be a total debacle though with some total clowns getting voted in through group voting tickets, but if that happens then Labor only has themselves to blame because they've done nothing about it

From having the front page of the HeraldSun and predicting holding the balance of power to not contesting in the space of 6 weeks is ..... well at least they realised that there is only so many restaurateur and publicans and their ideology was too specific.

At least the cookers have the Angry Victorians Party (formally known as the Australian Values Party) to put their hopes in.

 

[Jascave]

Not really seeing anything yet that says any kind of independent wave will happen in the lower house. I'm worried that the upper house will be a total debacle though with some total clowns getting voted in through group voting tickets, but if that happens then Labor only has themselves to blame because they've done nothing about it

At least the Australian Democrats are making a political comeback after so many years in the wilderness. For those who may have forgotten who the Australian Democrats were, they were the party the late Don Chipp, a former Labor minister in the Whitlam government, founded back in 1977, who wanted 'to keep the bastards honest.'

 

[Baltimore Jack]

At least the Australian Democrats are making a political comeback after so many years in the wilderness. For those who may have forgotten who the Australian Democrats were, they were the party the late Don Chipp, a former Labor minister in the Whitlam government, founded back in 1977, who wanted 'to keep the bastards honest.'

Don Chip was a Labor Minister in Gough's Government you say?

Has anyone told Don?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Gough]

Upper House is going to be an absolute conga line of whack jobs.

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

View attachment 1476358

I'd be interested in Melbourne vs all other Voting areas in VIC. Huge divide.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

I'd be interested in Melbourne vs all other Voting areas in VIC. Huge divide.

Nats will be 5%. If you looked at Melbourne only, Greens are probably only a few points behind the Liberals.


I will say that I have already picked up a more visible sign of the Liberals' campaign running - a couple of billboards, market stall with the local MP, lots of campaign literature already shoved in the letterbox.

If they put 1% of the same effort into policy development they might even be a credible opposition. I wonder if the hyper-focus on state government decision making over the last 2 years is biting them as consequence. There's plenty for Labor to talk about and look busy on, even if not every policy is a winner.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

At least the Australian Democrats are making a political comeback after so many years in the wilderness. For those who may have forgotten who the Australian Democrats were, they were the party the late Don Chipp, a former Labor minister in the Whitlam government, founded back in 1977, who wanted 'to keep the bastards honest.'

They're also the ones that made the GST a lot more complex than it needed to be.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Guy is wasting his and everyone elses time.

Campaign on nuclear energy, they got nothing anyway.

 

[Home Alone]

I'd be interested in Melbourne vs all other Voting areas in VIC. Huge divide.

Is there that many seats that could change hands in regional Vic? LNP have traditionally polled well in Gippsland and Western Districts and currently hold nearly all of the.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Insiders this morning hinting that the Libs could well be wiped out by Teals

 

[FredLeDeux]

Insiders this morning hinting that the Libs could well be wiped out by Teals

It's obviously good for Victoria to see the Liberal Party tossed into the dustbin of history.

Equally obviously, it's bad for Victoria to see them replaced by a mob of pseudo-Lib w***ers.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Is there that many seats that could change hands in regional Vic? LNP have traditionally polled well in Gippsland and Western Districts and currently hold nearly all of the.

A handful. There is a credible independent running in Benambra

Ripon and Morwell are now notionally Labor. And they've gotten reasonably close in South-West Coast before. Especially if there's a local issue that plays well - the offshore wind project I imagine would do nicely in Portland (probably in Gippsland too - but they start from a much lower base)



In terms of investing campaign resources though, it's still probably better for both parties to just focus on Metro areas. There might be a light scrap around Bellarine and the Surf Coast, but I wouldn't expect much else.

Long-term though it would probably be in Liberal HQ's best interest to try and break into the regional cities again. With the way the population is moving, they aren't ever going to form majority government if they can't find extra seats to flip outside of Eastern/South-Eastern Melbourne.

 

[Home Alone]

A handful. There is a credible independent running in Benambra

Ripon and Morwell are now notionally Labor. And they've gotten reasonably close in South-West Coast before. Especially if there's a local issue that plays well - the offshore wind project I imagine would do nicely in Portland (probably in Gippsland too - but they start from a much lower base)



In terms of investing campaign resources though, it's still probably better for both parties to just focus on Metro areas. There might be a light scrap around Bellarine and the Surf Coast, but I wouldn't expect much else.

Long-term though it would probably be in Liberal HQ's best interest to try and break into the regional cities again. With the way the population is moving, they aren't ever going to form majority government if they can't find extra seats to flip outside of Eastern/South-Eastern Melbourne.

So you would think LNP 2PP in regional Vic would be around 52%. Hence the metro would be even lower than 39.5%.

Worst case scenario for the LNP is they are winning votes in already held regional seats but leaking further in metro.

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[Herne Hill Hammer]

It's obviously good for Victoria to see the Liberal Party tossed into the dustbin of history.

Equally obviously, it's bad for Victoria to see them replaced by a mob of pseudo-Lib w***ers.

I don't know how it gets prevented but I certainly don't want to end up like WA and the power that McGowan has with no opposition.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

I don't know how it gets prevented but I certainly don't want to end up like WA and the power that McGowan has with no opposition.

There's absolutely no chance of Labor controlling the Upper House like McGowan does.

Nats will still get 6 House seats, Greens probably get 5, 2 incumbent indies.

The difference between 20 Liberals and 2 Liberals by that point is fairly minimal in terms of the process of government. But giving the Libs less than a cricket team would be a strong repudiation of how they've carried on through the pandemic, another rejection of their happy-clapping, fear-mongering and climate knuckle-dragging.

 

[Rob R]

No shock that Dan supports Albos thought bubble (his first real mistake) about boosting immigration numbers back to the insane levels of the past. Dan's whole budget is reliant on the housing boom.

Libs will probably have four different policies on the same topic (all worse) within a week though so they aren't a better option.

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[Crankyhawk]

No shock that Dan supports Albos thought bubble (his first real mistake) about boosting immigration numbers back to the insane levels of the past. Dan's whole budget is reliant on the housing boom.

Libs will probably have four different policies on the same topic (all worse) within a week though so they aren't a better option.

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Depends on the skills the migrants have for mine- it’s probably the only timely way to increase our health workforce (given that many of the education staff had to move to front line)

 

[Rob R]

Depends on the skills the migrants have for mine- it’s probably the only timely way to increase our health workforce (given that many of the education staff had to move to front line)

The ACTU had it right, before just saying boost the numbers how about we actually look where we need skills and can't train internally. Health is probably one area we need more skilled migration but there are probably other areas we can cut to offset.

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[Footonddit]

ALP:

• Plan to increase immigration without having articulated a plan to improve training or skill development for Australians.
• No plan to build a meaningful amount of housing even before announcing plans to increase immigration.
• No plan for a windfall tax.
• Plan to cut the taxes of the wealthy.

I've given them the benefit of the doubt so far but a pattern of policies resembling the LNP seems apparent.

 

[spinynorman]

Like most here I had assumed this was a foregone conclusion but Matthew Guy’s rebranding as Matt Guy is the exact rolling of the dice the Coalition needed to employ. It will be fascinating to see if it pays off.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Like most here I had assumed this was a foregone conclusion but Matthew Guy’s rebranding as Matt Guy is the exact rolling of the dice the Coalition needed to employ. It will be fascinating to see if it pays off.

Oh I like this on a personal level.

 

[dusty1234!]

Is there like an interactive map for this election?