2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

[fs88]

Like most here I had assumed this was a foregone conclusion but Matthew Guy’s rebranding as Matt Guy is the exact rolling of the dice the Coalition needed to employ. It will be fascinating to see if it pays off.

Why stop at the first name. The surname 'Guy' is cannon fodder for Labor with their 'Lobster Guy' and 'Mafia Guy' jokes. He should change his surname to something bold and charismatic like Matt Power.

 

[The Punter]

The electoral laws keep delivering for Daniel Andrews.

The Victorians Party can't get a foothold because they can't raise any money. They need a single source of unlimited revenue, but they don't have one.

OTOH, the Teals have that single source of funding - Simon Holmes A'Court. But they'd have to become a political party to tap that, and that is against the conceit that they brands as a ragtag collection of independents. So they can't run the same way in Victoria they did federally.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Gough]

There's a section of the Liberal Party that are absolutely loving the teals, they're doing their work and running the pinkos out the party for them.

 

[QuietB]

I'd be interested in Melbourne vs all other Voting areas in VIC. Huge divide.

That is a rather insipid surrender

 

[QuietB]

A handful. There is a credible independent running in Benambra

Ripon and Morwell are now notionally Labor. And they've gotten reasonably close in South-West Coast before. Especially if there's a local issue that plays well - the offshore wind project I imagine would do nicely in Portland (probably in Gippsland too - but they start from a much lower base)



In terms of investing campaign resources though, it's still probably better for both parties to just focus on Metro areas. There might be a light scrap around Bellarine and the Surf Coast, but I wouldn't expect much else.

Long-term though it would probably be in Liberal HQ's best interest to try and break into the regional cities again. With the way the population is moving, they aren't ever going to form majority government if they can't find extra seats to flip outside of Eastern/South-Eastern Melbourne.

Labor would be loving the prospect that the Nationals become the senior coalition partner in Vic. It is possible.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Is there like an interactive map for this election?

There's a Google Earth overlay made by Ben Raue of the Tally Room

 

[QuietB]

I don't know how it gets prevented but I certainly don't want to end up like WA and the power that McGowan has with no opposition.

It gets prevented by then Liberal Party not being chock full of dickheads. They will figure it out at some point - but it might be too late.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

It gets prevented by then Liberal Party not being chock full of dickheads. They will figure it out at some point - but it might be too late.

Correct, and I think it is too late.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Labor would be loving the prospect that the Nationals become the senior coalition partner in Vic. It is possible.

Happened on WA, iirc, Nats won 4 seats and the Libs won 2 out of 59. Labor won 53.

The Libs and Nats may as well go and hit the piss for the next 2 1/2 years.

 

[Xtreme]

Why stop at the first name. The surname 'Guy' is cannon fodder for Labor with their 'Lobster Guy' and 'Mafia Guy' jokes. He should change his surname to something bold and charismatic like Matt Power.

Change to Max Power and the election is in the bag!!!

 

[Ice-Wolf]

According to the ABC's Antony Green in the Age yesterday, there are 3 likely outcomes in regards to the election:

1) reduced Labor majority;
2) Labor minority
3) Coalition majority.

But I think Green had forgotten a 4th outcome which can't be ruled out-hung parliament.

and the 5th option increased Labor majority

Which is more likely than options 3 & 4.

 

[Gralin]

I'd be interested in Melbourne vs all other Voting areas in VIC. Huge divide.

lol

 

[Home Alone]

The electoral laws keep delivering for Daniel Andrews.

The Victorians Party can't get a foothold because they can't raise any money. They need a single source of unlimited revenue, but they don't have one.

OTOH, the Teals have that single source of funding - Simon Holmes A'Court. But they'd have to become a political party to tap that, and that is against the conceit that they brands as a ragtag collection of independents. So they can't run the same way in Victoria they did federally.

And I was thinking the donations law benefit Matthew Guy from further embarrassment.

While it still may happen, and the community rallies behind an independent, losing any of Sandringham, Brighton, Caulfield or Kew would make a drastic situation worse. Even worse would be Hawthorn changing Labor to Teal. If an independent with one hand behind tied behind their back can unseat a sitting member in a traditional Liberal seat - then you know the Liberals are a long long way away from where they need to be.

The VicParty was always a folly. They picked up a niche frustration with major parties, and rather than run a select Teal campaign where a candidate was appropriate; went full Palmer/UAP running in each seat and asking for candidates to nominate.And as you noted, didn't have a Palmer benefactor.

 

[Achy Blakey Heart]

lol

Lol?

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Weren't the nuffs crowing about Dictator Dan and Crown at one point?

Looks like it is the Libs being embroiled in a lobbying fiasco.

Nine publisher says he was not contacted by Peter Costello over Nine’s Crown coverage

James Chessell sends email to staff after both he and the Nine chairman were the subject of an email attack by James Packer

www.theguardian.com

 

[Kwality]

Weren't the nuffs crowing about Dictator Dan and Crown at one point?

Looks like it is the Libs veing embroiled in a lobbying fiasco.

Nine publisher says he was not contacted by Peter Costello over Nine’s Crown coverage

James Chessell sends email to staff after both he and the Nine chairman were the subject of an email attack by James Packer

www.theguardian.com

With James Packer as the source how could anyone believe anything - not that it has any relevance in a s**t fight between media players.

 

[Gough]

Weren't the nuffs crowing about Dictator Dan and Crown at one point?

Looks like it is the Libs veing embroiled in a lobbying fiasco.

Nine publisher says he was not contacted by Peter Costello over Nine’s Crown coverage

James Chessell sends email to staff after both he and the Nine chairman were the subject of an email attack by James Packer

www.theguardian.com

Three hundred k, Costello has to be the cheapest f*** in Australian politics.

 

[Kwality]

Three hundred k, Costello has to be the cheapest f*** in Australian politics.

What did Karl Bitar pick up from James ? Mark Arbib ?
Principal (sic), eh !
There is no shortage of politicians on both sides.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Three hundred k, Costello has to be the cheapest f*** in Australian politics.

Low altitude flyer.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

remember it clearly ..... good times

even better was the night of the supplementary frankston east by-election ..... that night, a lost and forlorn jeff kennett fronted the media unable to explain how it had come to this (to be fair, his psychological malaise had been building for over a month since the shock result of an election he arrogantly thought would be a shoe-in)

that night, standing in front of the amassed tv cameras in some backwater public hall in a suburb he had likely never visited before .... let alone heard of (resplendent in a bizarre knitted jumper) ..... he looked every bit the beaten pathetic man who just had the bejeezus kicked out of his arrogant backside

and to this day he remains a pathetic waste of space (some interesting rumours around about his personal life but wont go there - suffice to say, if true, those who continue to speak highly of him would change their position instantly)

All I know is there is an unnamed former Premier who is rumoured to both have certain predilections and also happy hands around family members.

Allegedly, a truly loathsome human.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Quite few shocking stories about ole Jeff. I choose to believe them because he was/is a massive campaigner.

 

[Kwality]

Low altitude flyer.

consulting v payroll

 

[Kwality]

remember it clearly ..... good times

even better was the night of the supplementary frankston east by-election ..... that night, a lost and forlorn jeff kennett fronted the media unable to explain how it had come to this (to be fair, his psychological malaise had been building for over a month since the shock result of an election he arrogantly thought would be a shoe-in)

that night, standing in front of the amassed tv cameras in some backwater public hall in a suburb he had likely never visited before .... let alone heard of (resplendent in a bizarre knitted jumper) ..... he looked every bit the beaten pathetic man who just had the bejeezus kicked out of his arrogant backside

and to this day he remains a pathetic waste of space (some interesting rumours around about his personal life but wont go there - suffice to say, if true, those who continue to speak highly of him would change their position instantly)

roll out the gutter snipe.
It cuts both ways:Political powerbroker found dead as child-sex charges become public | The New Daily Political powerbroker found dead as scandal breaks

 

[Gralin]