2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

Who will win the Victorian election

  • Labor

    Votes: 128 87.1%
  • Coalition

    Votes: 19 12.9%

  • Total voters
    147
  • Poll closed .

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Home Alone

Team Captain
Apr 28, 2006
444
405
I get to vote on Josh Frydenberg's future
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Western Bulldogs
The Victorian Liberals won't have to look very far to find the person responsible for the election defeat if that eventually happens...and it's not Matthew Guy nor Tim Smith.
You can't still be blaming John Howard. I mean I know he f* over at least 2 generations of Australians who are now voting for their own self interest!

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Jascave

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 17, 2005
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You can't still be blaming John Howard. I mean I know he f* over at least 2 generations of Australians who are now voting for their own self interest!

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No, not John Howard, thinking more of Scott Morrison. Morrison is hurting the Coalition's Victorian election campaign with the relevations he was the solo minister for every Cabinet posting, from Treasurer to Foreign Affairs-without telling his Coaltion partners what his intentions actually were.
 

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Home Alone

Team Captain
Apr 28, 2006
444
405
I get to vote on Josh Frydenberg's future
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
No, not John Howard, thinking more of Scott Morrison. Morrison is hurting the Coalition's Victorian election campaign with the relevations he was the solo minister for every Cabinet posting, from Treasurer to Foreign Affairs-without telling his Coaltion partners what his intentions actually were.
No.
If you want to pin this on Scott, you still have to question how he progressed through the rank and got got to th e top of the pile.
Scott is just the proverbial straw.
 

kalex6251

Club Legend
Nov 12, 2021
1,168
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Collingwood
No.
If you want to pin this on Scott, you still have to question how he progressed through the rank and got got to th e top of the pile.
Scott is just the proverbial straw.
the michael sukkar branch stacking issues illustrate the long standing problems now confronting the lnp ..... christian/religious nationalists have taken over the party (parties) ensuring those sympathetic to the cause now control the conservative agenda

some have pinpointed the embrace of ex-family first members as the beginning of the liberals decline (it certainly drew attention to the rise of christian nationalism as a disproportionate force in political debate) ..... suspect the problem goes back even further to john howards rise to power ..... and his active embrace of culture war targets as an effective political attack .... christian nationalists who now dominate the party machinery have simply taken the howard template and redesigned it as their own
 

MC Extra Dollop

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 17, 2006
22,443
20,117
AFL Club
Geelong
The Victorian Liberals won't have to look very far to find the person responsible for the election defeat if that eventually happens...and it's not Matthew Guy nor Tim Smith.

Matthew Guy should have been in a winnable position in 2018 and got thumped to the extent that 2022 seemed to be a write-off pre COVID. That was all on him and his lack of vision.

Now, after all the Andrews ammunition from the past 2-3 years, after dumping charisma vacuum O'Brien in a panic, it appears he's gained practically no ground. Should this play out on election day, I certainly hope that - just like at a Federal level - the state opposition's post-mortem looks outward first and foremost for the answers.
 

Rob R

Premiership Player
Aug 17, 2009
3,942
4,327
AFL Club
Hawthorn
This is the sort of local issue that should get the libs seats back (but they will screw it up). A badly thought out merging of schools that created a school too large to manage where violence is just part of every day life where teachers are leaving on mass because there is no point trying any more and they are too scared. Bullies and drug suppliers running rampant who play the race card to avoid expulsion even though the complainants are the overwhelmingly decent teachers, students and families from their own backgrounds (indigenous and refugees dumped in Shepparton and other areas where there already wasn't enough work for locals).




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Kwality

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The Victorian Liberals won't have to look very far to find the person responsible for the election defeat if that eventually happens...and it's not Matthew Guy nor Tim Smith.

Based on there has to be one person responsible. Next please.
 

Home Alone

Team Captain
Apr 28, 2006
444
405
I get to vote on Josh Frydenberg's future
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
This is the sort of local issue that should get the libs seats back (but they will screw it up). A badly thought out merging of schools that created a school too large to manage where violence is just part of every day life where teachers are leaving on mass because there is no point trying any more and they are too scared. Bullies and drug suppliers running rampant who play the race card to avoid expulsion even though the complainants are the overwhelmingly decent teachers, students and families from their own backgrounds (indigenous and refugees dumped in Shepparton and other areas where there already wasn't enough work for locals).




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I read the article and don't see how it would translate into LNP votes.

I actually thought Shepparton had a very low unemployment rate, way below the State average. And also thought the area was crying out for fruit pickers and seasonal work.

The flight to private education is not just a Shepparton phenomenon but a National one.

Other than that, are the LNP going to fight over indigenous matters, or is this a tough on crime approach because drugs are illegal?

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Rob R

Premiership Player
Aug 17, 2009
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I read the article and don't see how it would translate into LNP votes.

I actually thought Shepparton had a very low unemployment rate, way below the State average. And also thought the area was crying out for fruit pickers and seasonal work.

The flight to private education is not just a Shepparton phenomenon but a National one.

Other than that, are the LNP going to fight over indigenous matters, or is this a tough on crime approach because drugs are illegal?

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It's notionally low unemployment but like most govt stat's (at all levels), the stat's don't tell the truth, it has a low participation rate and lots of underemployment. The Libs should attack the school merger resulting in lack of support for students and teachers and thr local Independent members backing of it. Going down the crime path should be a minor part. They will screw it up though, make a few comments that will be racist and end up losing votes over it.

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Home Alone

Team Captain
Apr 28, 2006
444
405
I get to vote on Josh Frydenberg's future
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
It's notionally low unemployment but like most govt stat's (at all levels), the stat's don't tell the truth, it has a low participation rate and lots of underemployment. The Libs should attack the school merger resulting in lack of support for students and teachers and thr local Independent members backing of it. Going down the crime path should be a minor part. They will screw it up though, make a few comments that will be racist and end up losing votes over it.

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That is a definite high risk low reward plan.

While Guy could stay on script, I can see someone else taking the welfare down a proposed Victorian School Chaplin Program with a Catholic or Pentecostal Chaplin in every government school. Shepparton being the initial trial!

Picking a fight over $120 million investment on what was 4 under performing schools that hasn't bedded down as planned in the first 12 months; just isn't a good use of LNP resources.

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Senor M

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Oct 16, 2016
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That is a definite high risk low reward plan.

While Guy could stay on script, I can see someone else taking the welfare down a proposed Victorian School Chaplin Program with a Catholic or Pentecostal Chaplin in every government school. Shepparton being the initial trial!

Why do we need a state based trial when a federal program already exists?

 

Hornberger

Club Legend
Jun 20, 2011
2,550
2,504
AFL Club
Gold Coast
The election is now 2 months away. My current prediction:

ALP
2018 Election: 55

Gain: 7
Morwell
Ripon
5 new seats

Lose: 10
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
Northcote
Richmond
4 Abolished seats

Net Result: 52
Change: -3

LNP

2018 Election: 27

Gain: 6
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
2 new seats

Loss: 4
Ripon
3 abolished seats

Net Result: 29
Change: +2

Greens

2018 Election: 3

Gain: 2
Northcote
Richmond

Lose: nil

Net Result: 5
Change: +2

Independent

2018 Election: 3

Gain: nil

Lose: 1
Morwell

Net Result: 2
Change: -1
 

Not Important

never test the depth of water with both feet.
Oct 4, 2016
4,535
6,646
AFL Club
Richmond
campbell is an empty vessel who just repeats liberal twaddle. looks a dullard and is a dullard.

i c speers has his melb home on the market. hopefully it’s a sign he’ll piss off back 2 sydney and re-join his mates at sky make-up news.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Rustin Cohle

Flat Circle
Aug 15, 2009
15,743
18,180
Victoria, Australia
AFL Club
Collingwood
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The election is now 2 months away. My current prediction:

ALP
2018 Election: 55

Gain: 7
Morwell
Ripon
5 new seats

Lose: 10
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
Northcote
Richmond
4 Abolished seats

Net Result: 52
Change: -3

LNP

2018 Election: 27

Gain: 6
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
2 new seats

Loss: 4
Ripon
3 abolished seats

Net Result: 29
Change: +2

Greens

2018 Election: 3

Gain: 2
Northcote
Richmond

Lose: nil

Net Result: 5
Change: +2

Independent

2018 Election: 3

Gain: nil

Lose: 1
Morwell

Net Result: 2
Change: -1
ALP winning Morwell? Highly doubt it. If anything it swings against Labor.
 

Hornberger

Club Legend
Jun 20, 2011
2,550
2,504
AFL Club
Gold Coast
ALP winning Morwell? Highly doubt it. If anything it swings against Labor.
The re-distribution was favourable to Labor in Morwell (Gaining Moe will losing South Gippsland). Labor has notional margin of 4.6% against the LNP. With the Independent member retiring, Labor can afford a moderate swing against them and still win the seat.
 

kalex6251

Club Legend
Nov 12, 2021
1,168
2,372
AFL Club
Collingwood
^^^

recall seeing data on moe/newborough voting booths - long history of strong labor support ... at both state and fed level

[edit] worth noting: russell norths victory as an independent at the last state election was something of a miracle given the gambling controversy that emerged towards the end of that parliament ... he was a well known local footballer in his day which may have helped with a sympathy vote .... anyone else would have been crucified on the strength of the controversy that emerged
 
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Rustin Cohle

Flat Circle
Aug 15, 2009
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18,180
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Happy to be wrong but there's definitely a huge anti-Dan/cooker element in LV. Also a huge contingent who think state Labor are to blame for power stations closing.
 

fs88

Club Legend
Nov 3, 2011
1,474
3,289
Victoria
AFL Club
West Coast
Record inflation need to stop people spending but dan the man is buying the public votes with handing out free money.


Thank god I don't pay Payroll Tax or Stamp Duty (often - apart from when I buy my PPR) - Payroll Tax and Stamp Duty are already the biggest rorts and to see it thrown away so carelessly is horrific.

The only silver lining I can grasp is that at least the money is going to us and not secret grants.