2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

Who will win the Victorian election

  • Labor

    Votes: 126 86.9%
  • Coalition

    Votes: 19 13.1%

  • Total voters
    145

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Hank Scorpion

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Record inflation need to stop people spending but dan the man is buying the public votes with handing out free money.


Yeah, I'm not seeing the point of this now. Hospitality is already understaffed.

Power-saving bonus at least had the justification of being a net saving if it steered people away from the greediest energy retailers. And it was at a time when cost of living was especially poignant.

This seems to have no economic basis at all.
 

HirdyLannister

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Yeah, I'm not seeing the point of this now. Hospitality is already understaffed.

Power-saving bonus at least had the justification of being a net saving if it steered people away from the greediest energy retailers. And it was at a time when cost of living was especially poignant.

This seems to have no economic basis at all.
There is no economic basis for it, feels like buying voters since the dining scheme finishes around election time.
 

Jascave

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The election is now 2 months away. My current prediction:

ALP
2018 Election: 55

Gain: 7
Morwell
Ripon
5 new seats

Lose: 10
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
Northcote
Richmond
4 Abolished seats

Net Result: 52
Change: -3

LNP

2018 Election: 27

Gain: 6
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
2 new seats

Loss: 4
Ripon
3 abolished seats

Net Result: 29
Change: +2

Greens

2018 Election: 3

Gain: 2
Northcote
Richmond

Lose: nil

Net Result: 5
Change: +2

Independent

2018 Election: 3

Gain: nil

Lose: 1
Morwell

Net Result: 2
Change: -1
So the state election night 'scoreboard' could look like this:

Labor: 52
Coalition: 29
Greens: 5
Independents/Teals: 2

The ABC's election analyst Antony Green, in his last Victorian state election before announcing his retirement (very doubtful if he'll cover the 2026 Victorian election) will call the result at 8:30pm, with Opposition Leader Matthew Guy conceding defeat at 9:00pm, while Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews will claim victory at 9:45pm.
 

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Kwality

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As Labor's safe status in Melbourne's west slips, independents are eyeing off 'neglected' communities​


Campaigners from both major parties as well as researchers say there is a shift in mood among the outer west — a similar phenomenon is occurring in the south-east of Melbourne, which was reflected in a drop in primary vote at the federal election.

"There's a lot of anti-government sentiment, but not a lot of pro-opposition. So, I think people just want to change and want to a voice that will represent them and speak for them,'' Dr Garra said.
After a tilt at Treasurer Tim Pallas's Werribee seat in 2018, where he won nearly one in five votes as an independent, Dr Garra is once again putting his hand up for parliament, this time in the new seat of Point Cook, where he lives.

For the government, Melton is the most vulnerable to a loss. It is a "target" seat for the party, the highest priority for the campaign.

'Melton is currently held by former ambulance union secretary Steve McGhie but he suffered a 6.9 per cent swing at the last election, despite Labor enjoying a 4.8 per cent state-wide swing in the so-called Danslide.

In 2018, Labor's primary dropped more than 15 per cent, the Liberals' fell more than 12 per cent.'

Interesting couple of months ahead with traditional campaigning strategies of dubious value.
 

The Punter

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As Labor's safe status in Melbourne's west slips, independents are eyeing off 'neglected' communities​


Campaigners from both major parties as well as researchers say there is a shift in mood among the outer west — a similar phenomenon is occurring in the south-east of Melbourne, which was reflected in a drop in primary vote at the federal election.

"There's a lot of anti-government sentiment, but not a lot of pro-opposition. So, I think people just want to change and want to a voice that will represent them and speak for them,'' Dr Garra said.
After a tilt at Treasurer Tim Pallas's Werribee seat in 2018, where he won nearly one in five votes as an independent, Dr Garra is once again putting his hand up for parliament, this time in the new seat of Point Cook, where he lives.

For the government, Melton is the most vulnerable to a loss. It is a "target" seat for the party, the highest priority for the campaign.

'Melton is currently held by former ambulance union secretary Steve McGhie but he suffered a 6.9 per cent swing at the last election, despite Labor enjoying a 4.8 per cent state-wide swing in the so-called Danslide.

In 2018, Labor's primary dropped more than 15 per cent, the Liberals' fell more than 12 per cent.'

Interesting couple of months ahead with traditional campaigning strategies of dubious value.

I know it's hard to believe, but Kos Samaras is quoted in that article saying things aren't good for the Liberals. #Shill
 

adogsfan5

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Jun 12, 2020
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As Labor's safe status in Melbourne's west slips, independents are eyeing off 'neglected' communities​


Campaigners from both major parties as well as researchers say there is a shift in mood among the outer west — a similar phenomenon is occurring in the south-east of Melbourne, which was reflected in a drop in primary vote at the federal election.

"There's a lot of anti-government sentiment, but not a lot of pro-opposition. So, I think people just want to change and want to a voice that will represent them and speak for them,'' Dr Garra said.
After a tilt at Treasurer Tim Pallas's Werribee seat in 2018, where he won nearly one in five votes as an independent, Dr Garra is once again putting his hand up for parliament, this time in the new seat of Point Cook, where he lives.

For the government, Melton is the most vulnerable to a loss. It is a "target" seat for the party, the highest priority for the campaign.

'Melton is currently held by former ambulance union secretary Steve McGhie but he suffered a 6.9 per cent swing at the last election, despite Labor enjoying a 4.8 per cent state-wide swing in the so-called Danslide.

In 2018, Labor's primary dropped more than 15 per cent, the Liberals' fell more than 12 per cent.'

Interesting couple of months ahead with traditional campaigning strategies of dubious value.

Nothing a restaurant voucher can’t fix.
 

Hank Scorpion

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UAP will be running after all.


Curious... per the VEC website:

1664440219623.png



Not sure what the timeline is where they can deregister, reapply by July 29, and then be re-registered.

(Trying to find some excuse so we don't have to hear their ******* ad spam again)
 

Jascave

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Curious... per the VEC website:

View attachment 1521586


Not sure what the timeline is where they can deregister, reapply by July 29, and then be re-registered.

(Trying to find some excuse so we don't have to hear their ******* ad spam again)
Wonder who the United Australia Party will nominate as their leader to take on Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy. And don't be surprised if they nominate for every single seat in the Legislative Assembly like they did in the recent federal election. How many seats will the UAP win this state election?
 

Pakenhamsaint

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Wonder who the United Australia Party will nominate as their leader to take on Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy. And don't be surprised if they nominate for every single seat in the Legislative Assembly like they did in the recent federal election. How many seats will the UAP win this state election?
0

All the crackpot parties will take votes off each other.
 

Senor M

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Hank Scorpion

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Liberals have bought a big billboard on Ferntree Gully Rd for Kim Wells which suggests they're in some trouble in Rowville. Croydon/Bayswater would be trending even worse. And this area is a different demographic to their classic wealthy suburbs where it sounds as if they're doing even worse. Things must be as dire as the polling suggests.


Green campaign also seems to be playing it safe so far. They sound confident about gaining Richmond, not very confident in Northcote, and are otherwise ploughing what they have into solidifying their three seats.

Still no candidate in Albert Park which was earlier touted as winnable. Nor Essendon/Footscray if they wanted to lay the groundwork to expand into the next ring of suburbs.



Much as it surprises me, I'm having a hard time seeing how Labor aren't going to maintain or expand their majority.
 

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Kwality

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Little doubt that Dan has the upper hand. Only a good campaign can bring him down.

A hard hitting, short barrage playing the man along the lines of the campaign against ScoMo might move the centre, capitalising on the anti lockdown centre.



If you dont know Ms Madigan, see here:
 

Home Alone

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Tell him 'he' dreaming'.

I get the point you are trying to make, but Mumbrella is a media and marketing industry news website. There take on the Federal election is only looking at it from a marketing and media POV.

To accept Dee Madigan as the reason why Labor won, you will also need to explain to me why Labor's vote when down too.

The same premise of taking Labor votes and turning them to LNP votes through 2nd, 3rd or 4th preferences is the path to victory is not something I would have thought of.

But I hope you have sent Brian Loughnane and Jane Hume your findings. It might just be the information they are missing in their review.

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Kwality

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Tell him 'he' dreaming'.

I get the point you are trying to make, but Mumbrella is a media and marketing industry news website. There take on the Federal election is only looking at it from a marketing and media POV.

To accept Dee Madigan as the reason why Labor won, you will also need to explain to me why Labor's vote when down too.

The same premise of taking Labor votes and turning them to LNP votes through 2nd, 3rd or 4th preferences is the path to victory is not something I would have thought of.

But I hope you have sent Brian Loughnane and Jane Hume your findings. It might just be the information they are missing in their review.

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Dee Madigan addressed the voters likely to change their vote. Thats why the use of Mumbrella is relevant . Its more about advertising than politics or policy.
Hence the relevance to the coming campaign.
 

Home Alone

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Dee Madigan addressed the voters likely to change their vote. Thats why the use of Mumbrella is relevant . Its more about advertising than politics or policy.
Hence the relevance to the coming campaign.

So it as just as simple as win the advertising campaign and win the election.

Did you just watch South Parks underpants episode?

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Crankyhawk

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Read in the Saturday Age that former Liberal MP Geoff Shaw will be making a political comeback for the United Australia Party in the 2022 state election. Will cause nightmares for the Coalition...and Daniel Andrews.
Why is that going to impact Dan? It splits coalition vote, Shaw is a ignorant dumbarse who has no appeal to shift alp voters.
 

Kwality

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So it as just as simple as win the advertising campaign and win the election.

Did you just watch South Parks underpants episode?

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Actually I said exactly that long ago. Its called reality, give it a try some time.
Policy is a non event & even personality is a dry well.

The only thing they've got is Dan - plenty of people are disillusioned with him, but have no alternative.

Note not into South Park or their undies. Good luck with that.
 

Kwality

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I am not convinced that your thought processes and analytical thinking is sufficient for me to accept your version of reality is superior than mine. But always happy to learn and question what I know to be facts.

Todays offering:

Bridge to nowhere: Government loses big in punt on untried technology​

The Victorian government wasted at least $20m on a joint venture, run by the chief executive of the state’s rail authority, selling bridge safety monitors that did not work as they should.
ByPatrick Hatch
OCTOBER 1, 2022

Just another $20 mil eh Dan.