2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

Who will win the Victorian election

  • Labor

    Votes: 32 86.5%
  • Coalition

    Votes: 5 13.5%

  • Total voters
    37

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JackFlash

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Well, Mr Condescending will win the Victorian election and his Covid response will be forgotten. The only hope any sort of sanity has of prevailing is the Greens doing badly. I don't hold any great regard for my fellow Victorians though, so I expect the madness of Green policies will continue who are prepared to send Australia back to the caves.
 

Jascave

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I think this Victorian state election will be a bit like the 1998 federal election, which saw Kim Beazley's Labor gain a swing of 8% against John Howard's Coalition, but fell 13 seats short of winning the election. Daniel Andrews will have a swing against him on election night, but because of the big buffer he won in 2018, it would be enough to hold off the Coalition and secure a third term in office.
 

Gralin

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Well, Mr Condescending will win the Victorian election and his Covid response will be forgotten. The only hope any sort of sanity has of prevailing is the Greens doing badly. I don't hold any great regard for my fellow Victorians though, so I expect the madness of Green policies will continue who are prepared to send Australia back to the caves.
Are you Paul Murray's staff writer by any chance?
 

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Pie eyed

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I don't live in Victoria, but for the sake of sanity I hope that it's a Labor landslide.
No opposition this weak deserves to even win a glimmer of hope.
Give em three years, sack everyone, try and build a new opposition from the ashes.
 

Jascave

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I don't live in Victoria, but for the sake of sanity I hope that it's a Labor landslide.
No opposition this weak deserves to even win a glimmer of hope.
Give em three years, sack everyone, try and build a new opposition from the ashes.
The Victorian Liberals should've done what you've suggested as early as 2014. Do a major cleanout of the parliamentry wing of the party, use the 2018 state election not so much to win the election, more to build up strength for a real tilt in 2022. What the Liberals did instead was they kept the same lineup that lost in 2014 when they went into the 2018 election, when what they should've really have done was to do a major overhaul of the parliamentry side of the party after the 2014 defeat.
 

Theseventhhamster

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The idea that the Liberals can just do a cleanout of the nutters entirely ignores the reason that they need them. The modern Liberal party is a bunch of nasty, selfish w***ers and old people. There is no ground game there so they need the various happy clappers, Mormons and other crazies to do the on the ground volunteer work.

Real estate agents and the like aren't going to door knock or hand out HTV cards.
 

Home Alone

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I don't live in Victoria, but for the sake of sanity I hope that it's a Labor landslide.
No opposition this weak deserves to even win a glimmer of hope.
Give em three years, sack everyone, try and build a new opposition from the ashes.
This is my dilemma. I don't want to vote Lib, but I have Pesutto running in Hawthorn. So much better than the current Lib members. But I don't want to give any sign of support to Guy or the current incumbents.

Not sure what I will do. Policies doesn't even come onto it.

Open to advice and suggestions.

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fs88

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I don't live in Victoria, but for the sake of sanity I hope that it's a Labor landslide.
No opposition this weak deserves to even win a glimmer of hope.
Give em three years, sack everyone, try and build a new opposition from the ashes.

If they do any better than the WA Libs it'll be a miracle lol. None of the Vic Libs have any genuine talent and are just grifting nutjobs.
 

Hank Scorpion

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This is my dilemma. I don't want to vote Lib, but I have Pesutto running in Hawthorn. So much better than the current Lib members. But I don't want to give any sign of support to Guy or the current incumbents.

Not sure what I will do. Policies doesn't even come onto it.

Open to advice and suggestions.

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It's an interesting question. Labor will lose government at some point, and it's in all of our interests that the primary opposition party is made palatable.

Ultimately, I'm unconvinced that voting in individual moderate MPs does much. Nobody cared about Bridget Archer or Dave Sharma winning against the odds in 2019 and being the difference between majority and minority. Their votes were pocketed, the wider narrative was set and the party carried on its slide.

I think the Vic Libs at this stage are so far gone that there's no way their caucus intake in November is going to reverse their idealogical trajectory.
If the party leadership is ever savvy enough on its own to make itself electorally presentable (and not just relying on incumbent dissatisfaction), I genuinely hope people go easier on them and reward them for it. I was a bit disappointed that Marshall in SA only got one term based on this (other reasons at play there too, but it would have rewarded the correct faction.) But I don't see it happening here - the branches are too stacked, riddled with undesirable types and the anti-Dan hysteria would have only galvanised this further.

I'm still imagining our best hope is that the anti-ALP, pro-business types get fed-up with the current Libs and throw money behind an electorally-palatable centre-right force (basically organising the Teals.) From what I've read, Canada's historic centre-right party underwent this kind of split (although with the conservative wing winning) - but at least that's some precedent for it happening. So long as the new party proves electorally viable - which it should in metro Australia, they would get to wear the pants when the anti-ALP types inevitably re-unite.
 

Jascave

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It's an interesting question. Labor will lose government at some point, and it's in all of our interests that the primary opposition party is made palatable.

Ultimately, I'm unconvinced that voting in individual moderate MPs does much. Nobody cared about Bridget Archer or Dave Sharma winning against the odds in 2019 and being the difference between majority and minority. Their votes were pocketed, the wider narrative was set and the party carried on its slide.

I think the Vic Libs at this stage are so far gone that there's no way their caucus intake in November is going to reverse their idealogical trajectory.
If the party leadership is ever savvy enough on its own to make itself electorally presentable (and not just relying on incumbent dissatisfaction), I genuinely hope people go easier on them and reward them for it. I was a bit disappointed that Marshall in SA only got one term based on this (other reasons at play there too, but it would have rewarded the correct faction.) But I don't see it happening here - the branches are too stacked, riddled with undesirable types and the anti-Dan hysteria would have only galvanised this further.

I'm still imagining our best hope is that the anti-ALP, pro-business types get fed-up with the current Libs and throw money behind an electorally-palatable centre-right force (basically organising the Teals.) From what I've read, Canada's historic centre-right party underwent this kind of split (although with the conservative wing winning) - but at least that's some precedent for it happening. So long as the new party proves electorally viable - which it should in metro Australia, they would get to wear the pants when the anti-ALP types inevitably re-unite.
It'll be interesting to see how many seats the Teals candidates will win in the Victorian state election as opposed to the recent federal election.
 

fs88

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It's an interesting question. Labor will lose government at some point, and it's in all of our interests that the primary opposition party is made palatable.

Ultimately, I'm unconvinced that voting in individual moderate MPs does much. Nobody cared about Bridget Archer or Dave Sharma winning against the odds in 2019 and being the difference between majority and minority. Their votes were pocketed, the wider narrative was set and the party carried on its slide.

I think the Vic Libs at this stage are so far gone that there's no way their caucus intake in November is going to reverse their idealogical trajectory.
If the party leadership is ever savvy enough on its own to make itself electorally presentable (and not just relying on incumbent dissatisfaction), I genuinely hope people go easier on them and reward them for it. I was a bit disappointed that Marshall in SA only got one term based on this (other reasons at play there too, but it would have rewarded the correct faction.) But I don't see it happening here - the branches are too stacked, riddled with undesirable types and the anti-Dan hysteria would have only galvanised this further.

I'm still imagining our best hope is that the anti-ALP, pro-business types get fed-up with the current Libs and throw money behind an electorally-palatable centre-right force (basically organising the Teals.) From what I've read, Canada's historic centre-right party underwent this kind of split (although with the conservative wing winning) - but at least that's some precedent for it happening. So long as the new party proves electorally viable - which it should in metro Australia, they would get to wear the pants when the anti-ALP types inevitably re-unite.

Enter 'The Victorians' Victorians Party

I'm not yet convinced with them if their main policy is 'no more lockdowns' lol.
 

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Jascave

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Say if the Victorian Liberals is completely unhappy with the current team and decided to bring back via a time machine (if one is avaliable) either a) Sir Henry Bolte; b) Rupert Hamer, or c) Lindsay Thompson to lead the Liberals in the 2022 Victorian state election, how will one of the three mentioned above go against Dan Andrews in the upcoming poll?
 

Jascave

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This was posted last night. God damn what an uninspiring election pitch. Guy is dead set stealing a wage.


Instead of doing something like that ad, why couldn't the ad people who runs the PR campaign for the Coalition come up with an ad on how the Victorian Liberals will continue with the social and economic recovery for Victoria for the next 4 years? Maybe something like 'Fight back Victoria'?
 

Bombermania

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There is another factor involved in these former blue ribbon LNP seats that you are ignoring.
Demographics.
The amount of old quasi mansions populated by a small family of Libs that have been bulldozed and replaced with either a few townhouses or an apartment complex containing 40 units is significant.

That's the case in some areas due to apartment construction along major roads and public transport routes however it hasn't been to the extent that it should cost the Liberals its heartland seats.
 

fs88

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Instead of doing something like that ad, why couldn't the ad people who runs the PR campaign for the Coalition come up with an ad on how the Victorian Liberals will continue with the social and economic recovery for Victoria for the next 4 years? Maybe something like 'Fight back Victoria'?
it seems like fear campaigns are embedded in their mind. Next they'll rehash the 'hole in the budget' jingle. FFS for people who act like they are intelligent they consistently resort to gutter politics and never show us a positive roadmap.
 

Bombermania

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Kooyong's demographics have changed significantly in the past decade or so.
  • There's 6,000 more women than men in the electorate.
  • Younger population is increasing.
  • Increased number of renters, particularly in the Hawthorn area which skewed heavily for Ryan.
  • Ryan performed best in the Hawthorn area.
  • Frydenberg was better in Balwyn North, Deepdene and Balwyn which has less renters.
High income earners (+$150,000) and those who own homes still voted Liberal for the most part.

None of that is new to Kooyong and Ryan beat Frydenberg by appealing across the political spectrum.
 
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Jascave

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How do you see election night panning out at this stage, and what time do you think the ABC's Antony Green will call the results?
 

PonsfordMagpie

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How do you see election night panning out at this stage, and what time do you think the ABC's Antony Green will call the results?
Too hard to predict this far out.

Hope we get some new polling soon. Most recent one was from early April.