2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

Who will win the Victorian election

  • Labor

    Votes: 32 86.5%
  • Coalition

    Votes: 5 13.5%

  • Total voters
    37

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Home Alone

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It's an interesting question. Labor will lose government at some point, and it's in all of our interests that the primary opposition party is made palatable.

Ultimately, I'm unconvinced that voting in individual moderate MPs does much. Nobody cared about Bridget Archer or Dave Sharma winning against the odds in 2019 and being the difference between majority and minority. Their votes were pocketed, the wider narrative was set and the party carried on its slide.

I think the Vic Libs at this stage are so far gone that there's no way their caucus intake in November is going to reverse their idealogical trajectory.
If the party leadership is ever savvy enough on its own to make itself electorally presentable (and not just relying on incumbent dissatisfaction), I genuinely hope people go easier on them and reward them for it. I was a bit disappointed that Marshall in SA only got one term based on this (other reasons at play there too, but it would have rewarded the correct faction.) But I don't see it happening here - the branches are too stacked, riddled with undesirable types and the anti-Dan hysteria would have only galvanised this further.

I'm still imagining our best hope is that the anti-ALP, pro-business types get fed-up with the current Libs and throw money behind an electorally-palatable centre-right force (basically organising the Teals.) From what I've read, Canada's historic centre-right party underwent this kind of split (although with the conservative wing winning) - but at least that's some precedent for it happening. So long as the new party proves electorally viable - which it should in metro Australia, they would get to wear the pants when the anti-ALP types inevitably re-unite.
You are right. I need to put the Liberals on ignore until their is a significant proportion of acceptable candidates representing them at an election.

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Jascave

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Don't be surprised to see the Coalition send a memo to every MP (both prospective and in the parliamentry wing on how to deal with the media on the hustings when the election campaign gets underway in October but will be leaked on social media (ie Big Footy, Facebook, Twitter etc).

The memo will detail:

-How each MP should be presented in front of the media;
-What the talking points should be;
-Which media outlet they should speak to (ie Herald Sun, Sky News Australia, 3AW, Neil Mitchell, Paul Murray etc);
-How to hammer home the atrocities done by Daniel Andrews, Martin Foley, Brett Sutton over Victoria's response to the pandemic (ie lockdown);
-What will they do in the first 100 days if elected on November 26.
 

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Home Alone

Senior List
Apr 28, 2006
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I get to vote on Josh Frydenberg's future
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Don't be surprised to see the Coalition send a memo to every MP (both prospective and in the parliamentry wing on how to deal with the media on the hustings when the election campaign gets underway in October but will be leaked on social media (ie Big Footy, Facebook, Twitter etc).

The memo will detail:

-How each MP should be presented in front of the media;
-What the talking points should be;
-Which media outlet they should speak to (ie Herald Sun, Sky News Australia, 3AW, Neil Mitchell, Paul Murray etc);
-How to hammer home the atrocities done by Daniel Andrews, Martin Foley, Brett Sutton over Victoria's response to the pandemic (ie lockdown);
-What will they do in the first 100 days if elected on November 26.
The memo appears to be written by a Year10 student as part of an assignment with that level of thought.

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Blue1980

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Finn was expelled not for what he believed, but how he expressed those beliefs publicly. Andrews as a mid-20th century despot, missiles falling on ABC headquarters, etc. Not exactly high-minded, non-personal debate.

Andrews fault for Matthew Guy booting Finn?

What a man he is!
 

Hank Scorpion

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This was posted last night. God damn what an uninspiring election pitch. Guy is dead set stealing a wage.



I have no doubt that if they run with this as their campaign theme they will get walloped. Walloped.

The cookers are already voting for them, so why the * are they still pushing this? Lockdowns happened for a reason - anyone with half a brain is going to be repulsed by it.


There are fair grievances they could be pointing out in government policy, or could do something more broad about 'teh debt.' At least then they'd be looking at clawing back a few seats.
 

kaka

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This is astonishingly bad
I genuinely don't get their strategy for the election and also as a party.

They criticise the lockdown which were due to public health orders, and then in the same breath criticise the government for what is happening in the healthcare system.

You cant run both strategies - it is insane.

Bringing people back to the pandemics is also a terrible idea. People are over the pandemic. They want to move forward. Unfortunately they lack the ability to have a vision.
 

Theseventhhamster

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I guess it's a step up on the racism festival that was the last election but I dunno about replaying Josh Friedenburg's greatest hits as a winning strategy.
 

Blue1980

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it seems like fear campaigns are embedded in their mind. Next they'll rehash the 'hole in the budget' jingle. FFS for people who act like they are intelligent they consistently resort to gutter politics and never show us a positive roadmap.

Also are the lockdowns still really the thing the Libs thing which will help them?

Didn’t exactly do much for LNP at federal election, just some freedumbers voting for UAP and ON, though give it another 5-6 months and lockdowns further receed into memory.
 

Blue1980

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I genuinely don't get their strategy for the election and also as a party.

They criticise the lockdown which were due to public health orders, and then in the same breath criticise the government for what is happening in the healthcare system.

You cant run both strategies - it is insane.

Bringing people back to the pandemics is also a terrible idea. People are over the pandemic. They want to move forward. Unfortunately they lack the ability to have a vision.

Yep, what happened in the pandemic was because we had to take measures to save lives.

Though you had the freedumb and qanon types thinking Dan was trying to begin a new world govt beginning in Victoria.

But amazingly when we all got vaccinated the lockdowns and restrictions ended, now some complain we don’t have enough health and safety measures.
 

fs88

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Also are the lockdowns still really the thing the Libs thing which will help them?

Didn’t exactly do much for LNP at federal election, just some freedumbers voting for UAP and ON, though give it another 5-6 months and lockdowns further receed into memory.

That’s the baffling part, the lockdowns/Dictator Dan stuff didn’t work at a Federal level so not sure why they’re trying to peddle it at a state level. As you mentioned, the lockdown nuffies would rather vote for UAP/ON anyway.

I’m convinced that their campaign managers are literally garden rocks and they’re siphoning those wages into their personal bank accounts.

If they do any better than the WA Libs it’ll be a miracle.
 

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Blue1980

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That’s the baffling part, the lockdowns/Dictator Dan stuff didn’t work at a Federal level so not sure why they’re trying to peddle it at a state level. As you mentioned, the lockdown nuffies would rather vote for UAP/ON anyway.

I’m convinced that their campaign managers are literally garden rocks and they’re siphoning those wages into their personal bank accounts.

If they do any better than the WA Libs it’ll be a miracle.

Campaign managers just watch sky after dark, think it’s forever 2020/21 and they had hit onto some amazing vote winning formula when it was just the Murdoch press largely preaching to a loud minority echo chamber.
 

fs88

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Watching them make the same mistakes as last election is pretty funny. Same Guy even.

They're pandering to a narrow section of not even their own traditional support base.

I love how they are continually bashing the Teals even though those Teals used to be Liberal voters. Nice way of wooing them back for the next election idiots 🤦🏻‍♂️
 

Blue1980

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Don't be surprised to see the Coalition send a memo to every MP (both prospective and in the parliamentry wing on how to deal with the media on the hustings when the election campaign gets underway in October but will be leaked on social media (ie Big Footy, Facebook, Twitter etc).

The memo will detail:

-How each MP should be presented in front of the media;
-What the talking points should be;
-Which media outlet they should speak to (ie Herald Sun, Sky News Australia, 3AW, Neil Mitchell, Paul Murray etc);
-How to hammer home the atrocities done by Daniel Andrews, Martin Foley, Brett Sutton over Victoria's response to the pandemic (ie lockdown);
-What will they do in the first 100 days if elected on November 26.

Pfft they will never say what they will do in their first 100 days, as they don’t plan to do anything.
 

William Wonka

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Watching them make the same mistakes as last election is pretty funny. Same Guy even.

They're pandering to a narrow section of not even their own traditional support base.
This.

The 'African Gangs' narrative didn't work because 95% of the Vic population have only ever seen one or two Africans and they were working hard at the local supermarket
The other 5% live in areas where being a petty crim and stealing phones, cars etc is essentially assimilation.
 

Nuggs Bunny

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This.

The 'African Gangs' narrative didn't work because 95% of the Vic population have only ever seen one or two Africans and they were working hard at the local supermarket
The other 5% live in areas where being a petty crim and stealing phones, cars etc is essentially assimilation.
The areas with people that "have only ever seen one or two Africans" voted Liberal. By "areas where being a petty crim and stealing phones, cars etc is essentially assimilation.", do you just mean the outer suburbs? Because they voted Labor.
 

hawkman

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It's an interesting question. Labor will lose government at some point, and it's in all of our interests that the primary opposition party is made palatable.

Ultimately, I'm unconvinced that voting in individual moderate MPs does much. Nobody cared about Bridget Archer or Dave Sharma winning against the odds in 2019 and being the difference between majority and minority. Their votes were pocketed, the wider narrative was set and the party carried on its slide.

I think the Vic Libs at this stage are so far gone that there's no way their caucus intake in November is going to reverse their idealogical trajectory.
If the party leadership is ever savvy enough on its own to make itself electorally presentable (and not just relying on incumbent dissatisfaction), I genuinely hope people go easier on them and reward them for it. I was a bit disappointed that Marshall in SA only got one term based on this (other reasons at play there too, but it would have rewarded the correct faction.) But I don't see it happening here - the branches are too stacked, riddled with undesirable types and the anti-Dan hysteria would have only galvanised this further.

I'm still imagining our best hope is that the anti-ALP, pro-business types get fed-up with the current Libs and throw money behind an electorally-palatable centre-right force (basically organising the Teals.) From what I've read, Canada's historic centre-right party underwent this kind of split (although with the conservative wing winning) - but at least that's some precedent for it happening. So long as the new party proves electorally viable - which it should in metro Australia, they would get to wear the pants when the anti-ALP types inevitably re-unite.
The Libs aren't winning this year. Their best hope is Pesutto gets back in at Hawthorn but they do bad enough that Guy is removed so Pesutto becomes leader which will moderate the party. Andrews will be unlikely to be there in 2026 so there is the potential for a Brumby type scenario

This year, I can see Labor losing a couple of seats to the Greens and maybe some Independents (there is talk Pallas may be trouble in Werribee), the Libs losing a few seats to Labor/Independents. Labor will have a big swing against them in some of the outer suburban seats but not enough to lose them.
 

William Wonka

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The areas with people that "have only ever seen one or two Africans" voted Liberal. By "areas where being a petty crim and stealing phones, cars etc is essentially assimilation.", do you just mean the outer suburbs? Because they voted Labor.
Almost nowhere voted Liberal.

I mean shitholes.
The only suburbs Africans live in.
 

Nuggs Bunny

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Almost nowhere voted Liberal.
Definitely not the "shithole" suburbs anyway.

1655724058148.png


I mean shitholes.
The only suburbs Africans live in.
Tell me you're a closet racist without saying you're a closet racist.
 

William Wonka

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Definitely not the "shithole" suburbs anyway.

View attachment 1428914


Tell me you're a closet racist without saying you're a closet racist.
Firstly that map is a thing of beauty.

Secondly eat a ******* dick.

It's hardly surprising that refugees from a war torn nation with a GDP less than the loose change stuck in Gina Rineharts cankle folds are not exactly spoiled for choice when real estate hunting in one of the most expensive markets on earth now is it?
 

Nuggs Bunny

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Firstly that map is a thing of beauty.

Secondly eat a ******* dick.

It's hardly surprising that refugees from a war torn nation with a GDP less than the loose change stuck in Gina Rineharts cankle folds are not exactly spoiled for choice when real estate hunting in one of the most expensive markets on earth now is it?
Yeah it's pretty sad that refugees find it hard to assimilate into Australia. It's even harder when you have these ******ed stereotypes from dumb boomers that Africans work at supermarkets and live in shithole suburb where being a petty crim and stealing phones, cars etc is essentially assimilation. You're literally Matthew Guy's target audience champ
 

William Wonka

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Yeah it's pretty sad that refugees find it hard to assimilate into Australia. It's even harder when you have these ******ed stereotypes from dumb boomers that Africans work at supermarkets and live in shithole suburb where being a petty crim and stealing phones, cars etc is essentially assimilation. You're literally Matthew Guy's target audience champ
What's wrong with working at a Supermarket???

It's not a 'stereotype' btw it's a fact.

In saying 'Africans' I'm talking about Sudanese/South Sudanese refugees not the sprinkling of African migrants that have come here over the past decades or the Saffers that you find here and there .

Regardless the number of people born in Africa who now reside in Vic is TINY and like most new refugee migrant communities they by necessity live in the poorest areas.

Same with the post war Europeans refugees, same with the Vietnamese, same with the Syrians.

Funnily the Chinese who arrived recently after selling up their million $ houses in Guangzhou live in Camberwell and Balwyn.
 
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