2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

Who will win the Victorian election

  • Labor

    Votes: 128 87.1%
  • Coalition

    Votes: 19 12.9%

  • Total voters
    147
  • Poll closed .
No, not John Howard, thinking more of Scott Morrison. Morrison is hurting the Coalition's Victorian election campaign with the relevations he was the solo minister for every Cabinet posting, from Treasurer to Foreign Affairs-without telling his Coaltion partners what his intentions actually were.
No.
If you want to pin this on Scott, you still have to question how he progressed through the rank and got got to th e top of the pile.
Scott is just the proverbial straw.
 

kalex6251

Club Legend
Nov 12, 2021
2,159
3,881
AFL Club
Collingwood
No.
If you want to pin this on Scott, you still have to question how he progressed through the rank and got got to th e top of the pile.
Scott is just the proverbial straw.
the michael sukkar branch stacking issues illustrate the long standing problems now confronting the lnp ..... christian/religious nationalists have taken over the party (parties) ensuring those sympathetic to the cause now control the conservative agenda

some have pinpointed the embrace of ex-family first members as the beginning of the liberals decline (it certainly drew attention to the rise of christian nationalism as a disproportionate force in political debate) ..... suspect the problem goes back even further to john howards rise to power ..... and his active embrace of culture war targets as an effective political attack .... christian nationalists who now dominate the party machinery have simply taken the howard template and redesigned it as their own
 
Aug 17, 2006
23,225
21,444
AFL Club
Geelong
The Victorian Liberals won't have to look very far to find the person responsible for the election defeat if that eventually happens...and it's not Matthew Guy nor Tim Smith.

Matthew Guy should have been in a winnable position in 2018 and got thumped to the extent that 2022 seemed to be a write-off pre COVID. That was all on him and his lack of vision.

Now, after all the Andrews ammunition from the past 2-3 years, after dumping charisma vacuum O'Brien in a panic, it appears he's gained practically no ground. Should this play out on election day, I certainly hope that - just like at a Federal level - the state opposition's post-mortem looks outward first and foremost for the answers.
 

Rob R

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 17, 2009
5,407
6,007
AFL Club
Hawthorn
This is the sort of local issue that should get the libs seats back (but they will screw it up). A badly thought out merging of schools that created a school too large to manage where violence is just part of every day life where teachers are leaving on mass because there is no point trying any more and they are too scared. Bullies and drug suppliers running rampant who play the race card to avoid expulsion even though the complainants are the overwhelmingly decent teachers, students and families from their own backgrounds (indigenous and refugees dumped in Shepparton and other areas where there already wasn't enough work for locals).




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This is the sort of local issue that should get the libs seats back (but they will screw it up). A badly thought out merging of schools that created a school too large to manage where violence is just part of every day life where teachers are leaving on mass because there is no point trying any more and they are too scared. Bullies and drug suppliers running rampant who play the race card to avoid expulsion even though the complainants are the overwhelmingly decent teachers, students and families from their own backgrounds (indigenous and refugees dumped in Shepparton and other areas where there already wasn't enough work for locals).




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I read the article and don't see how it would translate into LNP votes.

I actually thought Shepparton had a very low unemployment rate, way below the State average. And also thought the area was crying out for fruit pickers and seasonal work.

The flight to private education is not just a Shepparton phenomenon but a National one.

Other than that, are the LNP going to fight over indigenous matters, or is this a tough on crime approach because drugs are illegal?

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Rob R

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 17, 2009
5,407
6,007
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I read the article and don't see how it would translate into LNP votes.

I actually thought Shepparton had a very low unemployment rate, way below the State average. And also thought the area was crying out for fruit pickers and seasonal work.

The flight to private education is not just a Shepparton phenomenon but a National one.

Other than that, are the LNP going to fight over indigenous matters, or is this a tough on crime approach because drugs are illegal?

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It's notionally low unemployment but like most govt stat's (at all levels), the stat's don't tell the truth, it has a low participation rate and lots of underemployment. The Libs should attack the school merger resulting in lack of support for students and teachers and thr local Independent members backing of it. Going down the crime path should be a minor part. They will screw it up though, make a few comments that will be racist and end up losing votes over it.

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It's notionally low unemployment but like most govt stat's (at all levels), the stat's don't tell the truth, it has a low participation rate and lots of underemployment. The Libs should attack the school merger resulting in lack of support for students and teachers and thr local Independent members backing of it. Going down the crime path should be a minor part. They will screw it up though, make a few comments that will be racist and end up losing votes over it.

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That is a definite high risk low reward plan.

While Guy could stay on script, I can see someone else taking the welfare down a proposed Victorian School Chaplin Program with a Catholic or Pentecostal Chaplin in every government school. Shepparton being the initial trial!

Picking a fight over $120 million investment on what was 4 under performing schools that hasn't bedded down as planned in the first 12 months; just isn't a good use of LNP resources.

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I thought it had been shelved. If it is still a thing then no we don t need another.

1 is already too many

100% still a thing-- it's just that schools use the funding in creative ways so that the program is de-emphasised to the public.
 

Hornberger

Club Legend
Jun 20, 2011
2,668
2,669
AFL Club
Gold Coast
The election is now 2 months away. My current prediction:

ALP
2018 Election: 55

Gain: 7
Morwell
Ripon
5 new seats

Lose: 10
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
Northcote
Richmond
4 Abolished seats

Net Result: 52
Change: -3

LNP

2018 Election: 27

Gain: 6
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
2 new seats

Loss: 4
Ripon
3 abolished seats

Net Result: 29
Change: +2

Greens

2018 Election: 3

Gain: 2
Northcote
Richmond

Lose: nil

Net Result: 5
Change: +2

Independent

2018 Election: 3

Gain: nil

Lose: 1
Morwell

Net Result: 2
Change: -1
 

Not Important

never test the depth of water with both feet.
Oct 4, 2016
7,243
11,411
AFL Club
Richmond
campbell is an empty vessel who just repeats liberal twaddle. looks a dullard and is a dullard.

i c speers has his melb home on the market. hopefully it’s a sign he’ll piss off back 2 sydney and re-join his mates at sky make-up news.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The election is now 2 months away. My current prediction:

ALP
2018 Election: 55

Gain: 7
Morwell
Ripon
5 new seats

Lose: 10
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
Northcote
Richmond
4 Abolished seats

Net Result: 52
Change: -3

LNP

2018 Election: 27

Gain: 6
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
2 new seats

Loss: 4
Ripon
3 abolished seats

Net Result: 29
Change: +2

Greens

2018 Election: 3

Gain: 2
Northcote
Richmond

Lose: nil

Net Result: 5
Change: +2

Independent

2018 Election: 3

Gain: nil

Lose: 1
Morwell

Net Result: 2
Change: -1
ALP winning Morwell? Highly doubt it. If anything it swings against Labor.
 

Hornberger

Club Legend
Jun 20, 2011
2,668
2,669
AFL Club
Gold Coast
ALP winning Morwell? Highly doubt it. If anything it swings against Labor.
The re-distribution was favourable to Labor in Morwell (Gaining Moe will losing South Gippsland). Labor has notional margin of 4.6% against the LNP. With the Independent member retiring, Labor can afford a moderate swing against them and still win the seat.
 

kalex6251

Club Legend
Nov 12, 2021
2,159
3,881
AFL Club
Collingwood
^^^

recall seeing data on moe/newborough voting booths - long history of strong labor support ... at both state and fed level

[edit] worth noting: russell norths victory as an independent at the last state election was something of a miracle given the gambling controversy that emerged towards the end of that parliament ... he was a well known local footballer in his day which may have helped with a sympathy vote .... anyone else would have been crucified on the strength of the controversy that emerged
 
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Nov 3, 2011
1,678
3,792
Victoria
AFL Club
West Coast
Record inflation need to stop people spending but dan the man is buying the public votes with handing out free money.


Thank god I don't pay Payroll Tax or Stamp Duty (often - apart from when I buy my PPR) - Payroll Tax and Stamp Duty are already the biggest rorts and to see it thrown away so carelessly is horrific.

The only silver lining I can grasp is that at least the money is going to us and not secret grants.

 
Nov 17, 2013
4,911
10,955
Victoria
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Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Sheffield Wednesday
Record inflation need to stop people spending but dan the man is buying the public votes with handing out free money.


Yeah, I'm not seeing the point of this now. Hospitality is already understaffed.

Power-saving bonus at least had the justification of being a net saving if it steered people away from the greediest energy retailers. And it was at a time when cost of living was especially poignant.

This seems to have no economic basis at all.
 

HirdyLannister

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 26, 2013
9,257
12,963
Cersei's bed
AFL Club
Essendon
Yeah, I'm not seeing the point of this now. Hospitality is already understaffed.

Power-saving bonus at least had the justification of being a net saving if it steered people away from the greediest energy retailers. And it was at a time when cost of living was especially poignant.

This seems to have no economic basis at all.
There is no economic basis for it, feels like buying voters since the dining scheme finishes around election time.
 

Jascave

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 17, 2005
5,875
1,470
Sandringham
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Hampton Rovers
The election is now 2 months away. My current prediction:

ALP
2018 Election: 55

Gain: 7
Morwell
Ripon
5 new seats

Lose: 10
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
Northcote
Richmond
4 Abolished seats

Net Result: 52
Change: -3

LNP

2018 Election: 27

Gain: 6
Bass
Bayswater
Hawthorn
Nepean
2 new seats

Loss: 4
Ripon
3 abolished seats

Net Result: 29
Change: +2

Greens

2018 Election: 3

Gain: 2
Northcote
Richmond

Lose: nil

Net Result: 5
Change: +2

Independent

2018 Election: 3

Gain: nil

Lose: 1
Morwell

Net Result: 2
Change: -1
So the state election night 'scoreboard' could look like this:

Labor: 52
Coalition: 29
Greens: 5
Independents/Teals: 2

The ABC's election analyst Antony Green, in his last Victorian state election before announcing his retirement (very doubtful if he'll cover the 2026 Victorian election) will call the result at 8:30pm, with Opposition Leader Matthew Guy conceding defeat at 9:00pm, while Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews will claim victory at 9:45pm.
 
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