2022-Where’s the improvement coming from?

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Partridge

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Off the top of my head, I'd say 4, I think. Macrae, Bont, T. Boyd and Stringer

Boyd wasn't drafted by the Dogs though.

If you include Boyd for the Dogs (fair enough), then for this season just gone Geelong had 4 (Selwood, Dangerfield, Rohan, and Henderson). Higgins was pick 11 and Cameron probably would have gone fairly early.
 

Turbocat

TheBrownDog
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You mean like having guys like Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman, Cameron Ling, Mitch Duncan, Corey Enright, Darren Milburn, and Josh Hunt all taken in the 20s or later? Didn't seem to need top 5, top 10, or even early picks to grab them.

Firstly I agree with the concept of your approach..where I differ is ..simply adding a squillion players at the wrong end of the draft will not get it done imo. We have seen over the last few years, that we can find guys like Menegola and Stewart..but we have also churned several.. and we have yet to find kid late who has become star

Looking back... no one questions the quality of those players mentioned but

We do not win without Corey, Bartel, Mackie, Selwood.

We also do not win without our defacto early picks in FSons. That group will probably never be repeated.
 

Partridge

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Firstly I agree with the concept of your approach..where I differ is ..simply adding a squillion players at the wrong end of the draft will not get it done imo. We have seen over the last few years, that we can find guys like Menegola and Stewart..but we have also churned several.. and we have yet to find kid late who has become star

That's not what I'm saying though. It's simply getting players through wherever you can. All that missing top end players means if you don't get a pick in the top 10. Your first pick will still be 15, 16, 17ish (ideally 18th unless winning the flag isn't the goal anymore). So if your picks are 9 and 27 that's great, but 15 and 33 is a bust? Have difficulty believing that. There is no shortage of absolute guns being found anywhere from the late teens onwards. And those players are open to everyone.

This is funny, it's basically a rehash of the top 5 draft pick argument that went around 15 years ago. St.Kilda were going to win flags, they just were, because of all the early picks. Geelong couldn't because we didn't have anyone in the top 5. Now it's morphed into top 10 picks being essential.
 

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standupand

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That's not what I'm saying though. It's simply getting players through wherever you can. All that missing top end players means if you don't get a pick in the top 10. Your first pick will still be 15, 16, 17ish (ideally 18th unless winning the flag isn't the goal anymore). So if your picks are 9 and 27 that's great, but 15 and 33 is a bust? Have difficulty believing that. There is no shortage of absolute guns being found anywhere from the late teens onwards. And those players are open to everyone.

This is funny, it's basically a rehash of the top 5 draft pick argument that went around 15 years ago. St.Kilda were going to win flags, they just were, because of all the early picks. Geelong couldn't because we didn't have anyone in the top 5. Now it's morphed into top 10 picks being essential.
Yeah I agree with this. Regardless of the fact that some of these players have been champions of the club, the years of continually adding the likes of J.Rivers, H.McIntosh, M.Clark, S.Selwood, L.Henderson, R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield, L.Dahlhaus, G.Rohan, J.Cameron, S.Higgins, I.Smith, now Ceglar, have only really set us back a decade. And it's not necessarily about the draft picks lost to other clubs in trades involved in getting those players to the club. It's about creating the space to allow talent to emerge from among players who have time to develop together as a cohesive team. I would say that that is one of the key elements of success - a core group of players that come through together, regardless of where they are taken in the draft. We were rebuilding in 2011. Then unlucky and then impatient. Now we sort of start again in 2021. The other key element of success I believe is a good leader. I recall hearing an author talk about a study they had done into the greatest sides of the past decades in a range of sports - I think the book was called The Captain Class. The author had done some extensive research and found that there was only really one common denominator in all the really successful sides over the years and that was a certain type of captain - one who usually wasn't one of the stars of the side but who was kinda modest or unassuming and stable, did the hard work behind the scenes and built relationships and team cohesion. I don't know much about basketball, but the main example he spoke about was Bill Cartwright with the Bulls in the early 90s. For us - both Harley and Ling typify that kind of leader imo. I really believe that so much of our success from 2007-2011 was due to the leadership of those two during their respective periods of captaincy. Think of the likes of Bartel, Selwood, Chappy, Stevie J, Scarlett, GAJ that were in that team - there were a lot of big names and big personalities in that group. They would not have always seen eye to eye on a lot of things. It took a pretty remarkable captain and calm head imo to get them all working as a team. St Kilda had just as much talent on their list during that period too, and I think it was a big decision for them to make Riewoldt captain over someone like Hayes.
 

Partridge

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Yeah I agree with this. Regardless of the fact that some of these players have been champions of the club, the years of continually adding the likes of J.Rivers, H.McIntosh, M.Clark, S.Selwood, L.Henderson, R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield, L.Dahlhaus, G.Rohan, J.Cameron, S.Higgins, I.Smith, now Ceglar, have only really set us back a decade. And it's not necessarily about the draft picks lost to other clubs in trades involved in getting those players to the club. It's about creating the space to allow talent to emerge from among players who have time to develop together as a cohesive team. I would say that that is one of the key elements of success - a core group of players that come through together, regardless of where they are taken in the draft. We were rebuilding in 2011. Then unlucky and then impatient. Now we sort of start again in 2021. The other key element of success I believe is a good leader. I recall hearing an author talk about a study they had done into the greatest sides of the past decades in a range of sports - I think the book was called The Captain Class. The author had done some extensive research and found that there was only really one common denominator in all the really successful sides over the years and that was a certain type of captain - one who usually wasn't one of the stars of the side but who was kinda modest or unassuming and stable, did the hard work behind the scenes and built relationships and team cohesion. I don't know much about basketball, but the main example he spoke about was Bill Cartwright with the Bulls in the early 90s. For us - both Harley and Ling typify that kind of leader imo. I really believe that so much of our success from 2007-2011 was due to the leadership of those two during their respective periods of captaincy. Think of the likes of Bartel, Selwood, Chappy, Stevie J, Scarlett, GAJ that were in that team - there were a lot of big names and big personalities in that group. They would not have always seen eye to eye on a lot of things. It took a pretty remarkable captain and calm head imo to get them all working as a team. St Kilda had just as much talent on their list during that period too, and I think it was a big decision for them to make Riewoldt captain over someone like Hayes.

Great post. Couldn't agree more with the bolded.
 

thejester

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You mean like having guys like Steve Johnson, Paul Chapman, Cameron Ling, Mitch Duncan, Corey Enright, Darren Milburn, and Josh Hunt all taken in the 20s or later? Didn't seem to need top 5, top 10, or even early picks to grab them.
No one is saying you can't find good players outside the first round. What they're saying is that the % are too low to build a side only around low picks. Your example is perfect: yeah, Geelong found generational talents in the later rounds but they also picked Joel Corey, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood and Andrew Mackie inside the top 10 and James Kelly, Travis Varcoe and Harry Taylor inside the first round - and they traded three first rounders for former No 2 pick Brad Ottens. Do you win flags without those guys? Of course not. It's exactly the same for Richmond and Melbourne and the Dogs. Yes, they've found players at every level of the draft. But they have also nailed their first rounders and more specifically, they have used top 10 picks to get elite players - which has given them the depth necessary and the sheer talent to win flags.
 

Pure_Ownage

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Boyd wasn't drafted by the Dogs though.

If you include Boyd for the Dogs (fair enough), then for this season just gone Geelong had 4 (Selwood, Dangerfield, Rohan, and Henderson). Higgins was pick 11 and Cameron probably would have gone fairly early.

Dogs traded pick 6 and their captain (griffen) to get boyd so i think we can still count him as the technical cost of a top 10 pick for the dogs.

On the rest i agree the year gws took 17yos as zone picks they picked the eyes out of the next years draft-cameron would have gone R1 as an 18yo for sure. Higgins (pick 11 in 2005) selwood (7 in 06) danger (9 in 2007) and hendo (8 in 2007) were the others. Hawkins would have also been a top 10 pick if he wasnt FS. Holmes (traded for pick 17 which became tom brown) is the only other quite high pick on our list.
 

Nest of Cats

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Dogs traded pick 6 and their captain (griffen) to get boyd so i think we can still count him as the technical cost of a top 10 pick for the dogs.

On the rest i agree the year gws took 17yos as zone picks they picked the eyes out of the next years draft-cameron would have gone R1 as an 18yo for sure. Higgins (pick 11 in 2005) selwood (7 in 06) danger (9 in 2007) and hendo (8 in 2007) were the others. Hawkins would have also been a top 10 pick if he wasnt FS. Holmes (traded for pick 17 which became tom brown) is the only other quite high pick on our list.

Rohan. P6 2009
 

goyoucatters

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No one is saying you can't find good players outside the first round. What they're saying is that the % are too low to build a side only around low picks. Your example is perfect: yeah, Geelong found generational talents in the later rounds but they also picked Joel Corey, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood and Andrew Mackie inside the top 10 and James Kelly, Travis Varcoe and Harry Taylor inside the first round - and they traded three first rounders for former No 2 pick Brad Ottens. Do you win flags without those guys? Of course not. It's exactly the same for Richmond and Melbourne and the Dogs. Yes, they've found players at every level of the draft. But they have also nailed their first rounders and more specifically, they have used top 10 picks to get elite players - which has given them the depth necessary and the sheer talent to win flags.

Nail. Head. Sorted.

Stockpiling draft picks like confetti has never been a recipe for success in recent times. Early picks (by way of draft or trade) always play key roles. And with the refinements to drafting insight/scrutiny in recent years, early means more and more ridiculously early just about every year.

Melbourne's drought-breaking midfield...

Angus Brayshaw P2 2014
Max Gawn P34 2009
James Harmes (Rookie Draft) P2 2013
Luke Jackson P3 2019
Ed Langdon P54 2014 (traded to Melbourne 2019)
Clayton Oliver P4 2015
Christian Petracca P3 2014
Jack Viney P26 2012 (as father/son - rated inside top 10 prior to that draft)

Over 60% were 'considered' top 10 picks at their time of drafting. And 50% of them were actual top 5 picks.

Considering the 'expected games' (based on all the empirical data) for draft picks is cut in half in moving from P5 through to P20, it's just fanciful to believe that gravity in the equalisation process isn't a distinct reality. A pick inside the top 5 is (on average) nearly twice as good as a pick in the late teens (which has become our default position since forever). It's not an apologetic for our situation; it's just the tyranny of the numbers.

Expected games matched to draft pick position
 

standupand

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Nail. Head. Sorted.

Stockpiling draft picks like confetti has never been a recipe for success in recent times. Early picks (by way of draft or trade) always play key roles. And with the refinements to drafting insight/scrutiny in recent years, early means more and more ridiculously early just about every year.

Melbourne's drought-breaking midfield...

Angus Brayshaw P2 2014
Max Gawn P34 2009
James Harmes (Rookie Draft) P2 2013
Luke Jackson P3 2019
Ed Langdon P54 2014 (traded to Melbourne 2019)
Clayton Oliver P4 2015
Christian Petracca P3 2014
Jack Viney P26 2012 (as father/son - rated inside top 10 prior to that draft)

Over 60% were 'considered' top 10 picks at their time of drafting. And 50% of them were actual top 5 picks.

Considering the 'expected games' (based on all the empirical data) for draft picks is cut in half in moving from P5 through to P20, it's just fanciful to believe that gravity in the equalisation process isn't a distinct reality. A pick inside the top 5 is (on average) nearly twice as good as a pick in the late teens (which has become our default position since forever). It's not an apologetic for our situation; it's just the tyranny of the numbers.

Expected games matched to draft pick position
Yeah but the fact Melbourne has got so many top 5 draft picks on their list and happened to win the flag this year doesn't prove you need top 5 draft picks to win it, only that they were very sh*t for a long period of time. Prior to this year, mention of their list would have been as an example of what not to do. What matters on the list is the fact that they drafted a group of players particularly from around 2012-2015 and held the faith with them.

As a comparison, the Sydney swans 2012 premiership midfield does not have many high draft picks. They had picked up Bolton as a top 10 pick and Goodes at a later pick in the 90s, but then made very good players out of a core group that were brought in with mid-lower picks from around 2006-2010.

Shane Mumford (p57 2008 rookie draft)
Adam Goodes (p 43 1997)
Josh Kennedy (p 40 2006 f/s hawks)
Jude Bolton (p 8 1998)
Luke Parker (p 40 2010)
Dan Hannebery (p 30 2008)
Lewis Jetta (p 14 2009)
Kieran Jack (p 58 2006 rookie draft)

It's a similar story for their other good players - O'Keefe, Malceski, Grundy, Richards etc.
 

goyoucatters

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Yeah but the fact Melbourne has got so many top 5 draft picks on their list and happened to win the flag this year doesn't prove you need top 5 draft picks to win it, only that they were very sh*t for a long period of time. Prior to this year, mention of their list would have been as an example of what not to do. What matters on the list is the fact that they drafted a group of players particularly from around 2012-2015 and held the faith with them.

As a comparison, the Sydney swans 2012 premiership midfield does not have many high draft picks. They had picked up Bolton as a top 10 pick and Goodes at a later pick in the 90s, but then made very good players out of a core group that were brought in with mid-lower picks from around 2006-2010.

Shane Mumford (p57 2008 rookie draft)
Adam Goodes (p 43 1997)
Josh Kennedy (p 40 2006 f/s hawks)
Jude Bolton (p 8 1998)
Luke Parker (p 40 2010)
Dan Hannebery (p 30 2008)
Lewis Jetta (p 14 2009)
Kieran Jack (p 58 2006 rookie draft)

It's a similar story for their other good players - O'Keefe, Malceski, Grundy, Richards etc.

Impressive numbers, for sure. It's an outlier, though, in terms of premiership lists in recent years. And the precision of drafting has continued at a frantic pace since then as well. Don't see numbers like that getting it done in this next phase of the competition.

Anyway, never actually said you have to garner top five picks to win the flag. But the idea that it doesn't help massively (when compared to a list build that works on an earliest pick between 14-18 each year) simply doesn't hold up in my view.
 

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Turbocat

TheBrownDog
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That's not what I'm saying though. It's simply getting players through wherever you can. All that missing top end players means if you don't get a pick in the top 10. Your first pick will still be 15, 16, 17ish (ideally 18th unless winning the flag isn't the goal anymore). So if your picks are 9 and 27 that's great, but 15 and 33 is a bust? Have difficulty believing that. There is no shortage of absolute guns being found anywhere from the late teens onwards. And those players are open to everyone.

This is funny, it's basically a rehash of the top 5 draft pick argument that went around 15 years ago. St.Kilda were going to win flags, they just were, because of all the early picks. Geelong couldn't because we didn't have anyone in the top 5. Now it's morphed into top 10 picks being essential.

Im not endeavouring to rehash anything. It my belief that a side must have players draft early and develop at the club. Picks 1 thru 9. History say its almost mandatory. Probably a number of them. Thats not to say they all succeed or one can't find players elsewhere .... its probably critical that you dont find players elsewhere. Thats not our issue as we have done that. We have traded in, we have found players late, we have found them as Rookie B and we have found a couple of late mature players... what we have not done is access the single figure picks.

It seems to me that is a part of the pie that a side must have. One might make the case you can have too many early picks, as GWS have not really done any better than us.

Bust or other terms I will leave to others... I doubt we win another flag till we start to draft from the pointy end of the draft for a couple of years.
 

Turbocat

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Dogs traded pick 6 and their captain (griffen) to get boyd so i think we can still count him as the technical cost of a top 10 pick for the dogs.

On the rest i agree the year gws took 17yos as zone picks they picked the eyes out of the next years draft-cameron would have gone R1 as an 18yo for sure. Higgins (pick 11 in 2005) selwood (7 in 06) danger (9 in 2007) and hendo (8 in 2007) were the others. Hawkins would have also been a top 10 pick if he wasnt FS. Holmes (traded for pick 17 which became tom brown) is the only other quite high pick on our list.

Maybe but I happy to excluded him, as I think its not much different to us getting Ottens. Its the tyep of deal that costs a lot and is not often repeatable. Just Macrae and Bont alone are two players which would make it hard for the Dogs to win without. Stringer is mehh but he helped I guess.
 

Turbocat

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No one is saying you can't find good players outside the first round. What they're saying is that the % are too low to build a side only around low picks. Your example is perfect: yeah, Geelong found generational talents in the later rounds but they also picked Joel Corey, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood and Andrew Mackie inside the top 10 and James Kelly, Travis Varcoe and Harry Taylor inside the first round - and they traded three first rounders for former No 2 pick Brad Ottens. Do you win flags without those guys? Of course not. It's exactly the same for Richmond and Melbourne and the Dogs. Yes, they've found players at every level of the draft. But they have also nailed their first rounders and more specifically, they have used top 10 picks to get elite players - which has given them the depth necessary and the sheer talent to win flags.

all that.... and the father sons like Hawkins who .,..these days would go in the first 5 picks.
 

STPer18

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Sounds like all the improvement will come from not having the flu. They would be better of not even mentioning this... it just comes of as weak. Melb too good on the day..move on. WE had too many with the sniffles... ?
Fell sick in the QF and got belted, cured for the SF and won, sick again in the PF and got demolished. 😷
 

Art Vandelay_

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It has worked for us once- with those 2-3 drafts coming into 07, but as was mentioned, we also struck gold with 3 brilliant F-S's.
And didn’t win until after we traded for the final pieces to the puzzle.
 

Cursed Cat

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That's not what I'm saying though. It's simply getting players through wherever you can. All that missing top end players means if you don't get a pick in the top 10. Your first pick will still be 15, 16, 17ish (ideally 18th unless winning the flag isn't the goal anymore). So if your picks are 9 and 27 that's great, but 15 and 33 is a bust? Have difficulty believing that. There is no shortage of absolute guns being found anywhere from the late teens onwards. And those players are open to everyone.

This is funny, it's basically a rehash of the top 5 draft pick argument that went around 15 years ago. St.Kilda were going to win flags, they just were, because of all the early picks. Geelong couldn't because we didn't have anyone in the top 5. Now it's morphed into top 10 picks being essential.

Interesting distinction - broadly I think we'd agree that developing a group (say, 5 players within the first #45 selections) - or two - of highly credentialed young footballers under the right coach is as sound a recipe for cooking up a premiership winning team as any.

Personally I think that a top #10> selection would be preferable in such a scenario; i.e. in 1999 we had Joel Corey within the top #10 selections and in 2001 we had Jimmy Bartel @ #8.

My preferred list-building assault would definitely include at least 2x #10-or-under draft selection with which to build around.

It's definitely doable, although to remain competitive and still have adequate draft collateral can require sacrifice. e.g. a Clint Bizzell or Brent Moloney.

Personally I'd be willing to entertain such a sacrifice at this point.
 

thejester

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Yeah but the fact Melbourne has got so many top 5 draft picks on their list and happened to win the flag this year doesn't prove you need top 5 draft picks to win it, only that they were very sh*t for a long period of time. Prior to this year, mention of their list would have been as an example of what not to do. What matters on the list is the fact that they drafted a group of players particularly from around 2012-2015 and held the faith with them.
Premiers of the last decade years and their top 10 picks/first round picks:

2012: Jarrad McVeigh, Jude Bolton (Jetta)
2013-5: Hodge, Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, McEvoy (Frawley, Rioli, Burgoyne, Schoenmakers, Smith)
2016: Macrae, Boyd, Bontempelli, Stringer (Smith)
2017-20: Martin, Cotchin, Prestia, Caddy, Vlaustin (Riewoldt, Rioli, Ellis, Grigg, Rance, Lynch)
2018: Kennedy, Masten (Shuey, Sheed, Hurn, Duggan, Jetta)
2021: Petracca, Brayshaw, Oliver, Jackson, Salem (Lever, Pickett, Bowey)

I dunno, seems like it might be Sydney rather than Melbourne who are the outlier here!

As a comparison, the Sydney swans 2012 premiership midfield does not have many high draft picks. They had picked up Bolton as a top 10 pick and Goodes at a later pick in the 90s, but then made very good players out of a core group that were brought in with mid-lower picks from around 2006-2010.

Shane Mumford (p57 2008 rookie draft)
Adam Goodes (p 43 1997)
Josh Kennedy (p 40 2006 f/s hawks)
Jude Bolton (p 8 1998)
Luke Parker (p 40 2010)
Dan Hannebery (p 30 2008)
Lewis Jetta (p 14 2009)
Kieran Jack (p 58 2006 rookie draft)

It's a similar story for their other good players - O'Keefe, Malceski, Grundy, Richards etc.
I'm not sure I'd be using the Sydney Swans - who famously and publicly hated the whole system of drafting and developing players and so chose to continue trading in guys (Mumford, Richards, Kennedy, Morton), while remaining competitive at a time when it was deeply unfashionable - as an example of the possibility of drafting and developing a group of players en masse in the lower reaches of the draft.
 

standupand

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Premiers of the last decade years and their top 10 picks/first round picks:

2012: Jarrad McVeigh, Jude Bolton (Jetta)
2013-5: Hodge, Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, McEvoy (Frawley, Rioli, Burgoyne, Schoenmakers, Smith)
2016: Macrae, Boyd, Bontempelli, Stringer (Smith)
2017-20: Martin, Cotchin, Prestia, Caddy, Vlaustin (Riewoldt, Rioli, Ellis, Grigg, Rance, Lynch)
2018: Kennedy, Masten (Shuey, Sheed, Hurn, Duggan, Jetta)
2021: Petracca, Brayshaw, Oliver, Jackson, Salem (Lever, Pickett, Bowey)

I dunno, seems like it might be Sydney rather than Melbourne who are the outlier here!


I'm not sure I'd be using the Sydney Swans - who famously and publicly hated the whole system of drafting and developing players and so chose to continue trading in guys (Mumford, Richards, Kennedy, Morton), while remaining competitive at a time when it was deeply unfashionable - as an example of the possibility of drafting and developing a group of players en masse in the lower reaches of the draft.
Nice data. I guess what it shows is that most of those teams had a period of bottoming out which guaranteed them top draft picks - Melbourne the longest and deepest of them all. But I don't think it was the bottoming out which was the key to them subsequently reaching the top. My own opinion is that it was partly - for most of them - bringing through a critical mass of younger players that could build the team together, eventually understanding each others games (and the gameplan) inside-out, play on instinct etc. The Swans are an example of where a club was able to do so without access to players from the highest reaches of the draft. They did what we effectively couldn't in the last little while - reboot and win a flag within 7 years of their previous one. There's obviously many other factors to it.
 

Seeds

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Impressive numbers, for sure. It's an outlier, though, in terms of premiership lists in recent years. And the precision of drafting has continued at a frantic pace since then as well. Don't see numbers like that getting it done in this next phase of the competition.

Anyway, never actually said you have to garner top five picks to win the flag. But the idea that it doesn't help massively (when compared to a list build that works on an earliest pick between 14-18 each year) simply doesn't hold up in my view.
You can upgrade those picks 14 to pick 5s by trading good players who wont be around for the next permiership tilt. I.e. a mitch duncan or cam guthrie or jeremy cameron.
 

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