2023 AFL Draft General Discussion

[DragoDelph]

Just all of the nominees please.

Zero Hangar has it available as well.

Every nominated player for the 2023 AFL Draft revealed

441 names have been put forward so far for this month's count.

www.zerohanger.com

 

[Couch Coach]

Zero Hangar has it available as well.

Every nominated player for the 2023 AFL Draft revealed

441 names have been put forward so far for this month's count.

www.zerohanger.com

That's from November 2nd.

Try this one:

AFL Draft 2023 nominations

A Flourish data visualization by Jordan Pinto

public.flourish.studio

 

[DragoDelph]

That's from November 2nd.

Try this one:

AFL Draft 2023 nominations

A Flourish data visualization by Jordan Pinto

public.flourish.studio

Good job, didn't see that one.

Why this isn't on the AFL site is anyone's guess.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Thank you for that CC.

This sort of thing should be of anyone's interest and accessibility.

 

[WilloTree]

I'll have a crack...

ROUND 1
1 WC Harley Reid mid 187 if WC keep pick 1, they will use it on Reid
2 GC Jed Walter for 194 clear top 2 match bid
3 NM Zane Duursma for 189 linked
4 NM Dan Curtin utility 197 good fit for NM (from Claremont)
5 Haw Colby McKercher mid 180 best available. Top 5 worthy. Watson linked
6 WB Ryley Sanders mid 185 best available. Not much btn him & McKercher
7 GC Ethan Read ruck 200 match bid
8 WB Jordan Croft KPF 200 match bid
9 Mel Nate Caddy for 193 good fit worthy of this pick
10 GWS Connor O’Sullivan KPD 198 from Albury NSW
11 Gee James Leake utility 187 draft bolter
12 Ess Nick Watson for 170 best available. Good fit
13 Ade Darcy Wilson utility 187 linked
14 Mel Caleb Windsor wing 184 best available. Good fit
15 Haw Will McCabe KPD 197 match bid
16 GC Jake Rogers mid 170 match bid
17 Syd Koltyn Tholstrup hhf 186 linked
18 StK Charlie Edwards mid 191 best available mid. bolter. linked
19 Ade Riley Hardeman def 195 best available with size
20 NM Archer Reid KPF 203 linked
21 GWS Harry DeMattia mid/for 185 from VC (good cricketer)
22 NM Archie Roberts def 184 booming left foot defender. Clarko loves these.
23 NM Lance Collard for 180 linked
24 Coll Will Green ruck 204 best ruck in the draft
25 Ade Taylor Goad ruck 206 athletic ruck. local
26 StK George Stevens mid 189 101 kg midfield beast
27 Car Tew Jaith def 188 rhb - good fit worthy of 1st round
ROUND 2
28 WC Phoenix Gothard for 178 quick hhf/good defensively. Linked to GWS also
29 Geel Angus Hasie def 190 from Falcons
30 Carl Nathan Philactidis def 179 rhb - elite speed
31 Rich Ollie Murphy KPD 200 best available tall
32 GC Will Graham mid 186 match bid
33 Bris Will Brown mid 195 from qld
34 Ess Koen Sanchez mid 177 from East Freo (but still pretty good)
35 Syd Caiden Cleary mid 182 match bid
36 Coll Logan Morris KPF 191 marking forward. Good fit
37 Frem Ashton Moir for 187 upside
38 Ess Luamon Lual def 182 value pick - good fit
39 WC Clay Hall mid 189 linked
40 Bris Vigo Visentini ruck 204 next best ruckman
41 StK Jack Callinan for 179 linked (also linked to WB) O’Leary linked here also
42 Frem Mitch Edwards ruck 206 mitch bid
42 Rich Evan Smith ruck/for 201 next best ruck
43 GWS Charlie McCormack KPF 198 match bid
44 Melb Liam Fawcett KPF 197 next best KPF

 

[hawkinoz]

I think this will be first time a team will go into big deficit after matching bids, their top pick next yr will almost surely be downgraded and maybe even to round 2.

They lost some 9+ players and some of them were rookie listed. Think they have only 6 senior list spots open & taking only 24, 26, 27, 32, 36, 38 to draft.

I did some calculations and assuming they match 3 bids based on Cal Twomey's draft rankings, 2,9,13 they will be in deficit by around 500pts by pick 13(even after some of their later picks move up & gain points). That would mean their F1 next yr is likely to downgraded by 4-5 picks.

Would be even worse if Will Graham gets a R1 bid, add another 700 pts deficit pushing deficit to 1200+. if their top pick is Pick 5, it will become pick 29. Luckily they have 2 F1's.

Most times clubs don't get big deficit for R1 picks and so the rules never get clarified.

I remember reading that deficit is calculated from same round and same pick spot. So in above scenario if their deficit is taken from picks after pick 13 in 2024, then they may get lucky.

I do hear there are likely to trade some of their picks for added points but they should add another 200 pts max to the kitty, so there will still be a decent deficit.

26(729) for Freo's 34,46(873)
24(785) for Lions 39,51,54(925)

Using current ladder positions, they hold 4,10,20,24,37,46 for 2024. They may be able to move some of the R2,R3 picks to clubs with picks in 30's/40's( not a lot as most of these picks are held by Suns,Dogs & hawks anyway)

 

[M Malice]

I'll have a crack...

ROUND 1
1 WC Harley Reid mid 187 if WC keep pick 1, they will use it on Reid
2 GC Jed Walter for 194 clear top 2 match bid
3 NM Zane Duursma for 189 linked
4 NM Dan Curtin utility 197 good fit for NM (from Claremont)
5 Haw Colby McKercher mid 180 best available. Top 5 worthy. Watson linked
6 WB Ryley Sanders mid 185 best available. Not much btn him & McKercher
7 GC Ethan Read ruck 200 match bid
8 WB Jordan Croft KPF 200 match bid
9 Mel Nate Caddy for 193 good fit worthy of this pick
10 GWS Connor O’Sullivan KPD 198 from Albury NSW
11 Gee James Leake utility 187 draft bolter
12 Ess Nick Watson for 170 best available. Good fit
13 Ade Darcy Wilson utility 187 linked
14 Mel Caleb Windsor wing 184 best available. Good fit
15 Haw Will McCabe KPD 197 match bid
16 GC Jake Rogers mid 170 match bid
17 Syd Koltyn Tholstrup hhf 186 linked
18 StK Charlie Edwards mid 191 best available mid. bolter. linked
19 Ade Riley Hardeman def 195 best available with size
20 NM Archer Reid KPF 203 linked
21 GWS Harry DeMattia mid/for 185 from VC (good cricketer)
22 NM Archie Roberts def 184 booming left foot defender. Clarko loves these.
23 Coll Will Green ruck 204 best ruck in the draft
24 Ade Taylor Goad ruck 206 athletic ruck. local
25 StK George Stevens mid 189 101 kg midfield beast
26 Car Tew Jaith def 188 rhb - good fit worthy of 1st round
ROUND 2
28 WC Phoenix Gothard for 178 quick hhf/good defensively. Linked to GWS also
29 Geel Angus Hasie def 190 from Falcons
30 Carl Nathan Philactidis def 179 rhb - elite speed
31 Rich Ollie Murphy KPD 200 best available tall
32 GC Will Graham mid 186 match bid
33 Bris Will Brown mid 195 from qld
34 Ess Lance Collard for 180 linked to NM/Coll earlier. Ess likely here
35 Syd Caiden Cleary mid 182 match bid
36 Coll Logan Morris KPF 191 marking forward. Good fit
37 Frem Ashton Moir for 187 upside
38 Ess Luamon Lual def 182 value pick - good fit
39 WC Clay Hall mid 189 linked
40 Bris Vigo Visentini ruck 204 next best ruckman
41 StK Jack Callinan for 179 linked (also linked to WB) O’Leary linked here also
42 Frem Mitch Edwards ruck 206 mitch bid
42 Rich Evan Smith ruck/for 201 next best ruck
43 GWS Charlie McCormack KPF 198 match bid
44 Melb Liam Fawcett KPF 197 next best KPF

Don't mind the Will Brown selection for us but I would prefer small forward Lance Collard(area of need) who went the pick after. Lions do not need another ruckman(Visentini) IMO, already have 2 main rucks in McInerney and Fort and 2 developing rucks in the reserves, I would of went Wil Dawson who as a key back/fwd is a need area for us.

 

[pK75]

I think this will be first time a team will go into big deficit after matching bids, their top pick next yr will almost surely be downgraded and maybe even to round 2.

They lost some 9+ players and some of them were rookie listed. Think they have only 6 senior list spots open & taking only 24, 26, 27, 32, 36, 38 to draft.

I did some calculations and assuming they match 3 bids based on Cal Twomey's draft rankings, 2,9,13 they will be in deficit by around 500pts by pick 13(even after some of their later picks move up & gain points). That would mean their F1 next yr is likely to downgraded by 4-5 picks.

Would be even worse if Will Graham gets a R1 bid, add another 700 pts deficit pushing deficit to 1200+. if their top pick is Pick 5, it will become pick 29. Luckily they have 2 F1's.

Most times clubs don't get big deficit for R1 picks and so the rules never get clarified.

I remember reading that deficit is calculated from same round and same pick spot. So in above scenario if their deficit is taken from picks after pick 13 in 2024, then they may get lucky.

I do hear there are likely to trade some of their picks for added points but they should add another 200 pts max to the kitty, so there will still be a decent deficit.

26(729) for Freo's 34,46(873)
24(785) for Lions 39,51,54(925)

Using current ladder positions, they hold 4,10,20,24,37,46 for 2024. They may be able to move some of the R2,R3 picks to clubs with picks in 30's/40's( not a lot as most of these picks are held by Suns,Dogs & hawks anyway)

Freo went into deficit matching the Henry bid, first round pick the next year slid 4 positions.

 

[Makeshift Park]

I'll have a crack...

ROUND 1
1 WC Harley Reid mid 187 if WC keep pick 1, they will use it on Reid
2 GC Jed Walter for 194 clear top 2 match bid
3 NM Zane Duursma for 189 linked
4 NM Dan Curtin utility 197 good fit for NM (from Claremont)
5 Haw Colby McKercher mid 180 best available. Top 5 worthy. Watson linked
6 WB Ryley Sanders mid 185 best available. Not much btn him & McKercher
7 GC Ethan Read ruck 200 match bid
8 WB Jordan Croft KPF 200 match bid
9 Mel Nate Caddy for 193 good fit worthy of this pick
10 GWS Connor O’Sullivan KPD 198 from Albury NSW
11 Gee James Leake utility 187 draft bolter
12 Ess Nick Watson for 170 best available. Good fit
13 Ade Darcy Wilson utility 187 linked
14 Mel Caleb Windsor wing 184 best available. Good fit
15 Haw Will McCabe KPD 197 match bid
16 GC Jake Rogers mid 170 match bid
17 Syd Koltyn Tholstrup hhf 186 linked
18 StK Charlie Edwards mid 191 best available mid. bolter. linked
19 Ade Riley Hardeman def 195 best available with size
20 NM Archer Reid KPF 203 linked
21 GWS Harry DeMattia mid/for 185 from VC (good cricketer)
22 NM Archie Roberts def 184 booming left foot defender. Clarko loves these.
23 Coll Will Green ruck 204 best ruck in the draft
24 Ade Taylor Goad ruck 206 athletic ruck. local
25 StK George Stevens mid 189 101 kg midfield beast
26 Car Tew Jaith def 188 rhb - good fit worthy of 1st round
ROUND 2
28 WC Phoenix Gothard for 178 quick hhf/good defensively. Linked to GWS also
29 Geel Angus Hasie def 190 from Falcons
30 Carl Nathan Philactidis def 179 rhb - elite speed
31 Rich Ollie Murphy KPD 200 best available tall
32 GC Will Graham mid 186 match bid
33 Bris Will Brown mid 195 from qld
34 Ess Lance Collard for 180 linked to NM/Coll earlier. Ess likely here
35 Syd Caiden Cleary mid 182 match bid
36 Coll Logan Morris KPF 191 marking forward. Good fit
37 Frem Ashton Moir for 187 upside
38 Ess Luamon Lual def 182 value pick - good fit
39 WC Clay Hall mid 189 linked
40 Bris Vigo Visentini ruck 204 next best ruckman
41 StK Jack Callinan for 179 linked (also linked to WB) O’Leary linked here also
42 Frem Mitch Edwards ruck 206 mitch bid
42 Rich Evan Smith ruck/for 201 next best ruck
43 GWS Charlie McCormack KPF 198 match bid
44 Melb Liam Fawcett KPF 197 next best KPF

The last NM first round pick seems to have disappeared?

 

[weltschmerz]

No chance North is taking Curtin

 

[pK75]

The last NM first round pick seems to have disappeared?

Didn’t you get the memo, if you can’t trade up to pick 1 with all the handouts from the AFL, they are taking a pick back off you.

 

[hawkinoz]

Freo went into deficit matching the Henry bid, first round pick the next year slid 4 positions.

You are right.

In this case Freo had pick 9 in 2020 and slid to pick 12 with 264.9 points deficit. They matched bid for Liam henry at pick 9 in 2019 as well.

If Freo had pick 8 or lower, would the pick have been affected is the question. ( Freo had pick 7 but Dons got 2 compo picks after 6 that pushed their pick to 9)

From memory the rules were clarified after that to say deficit would only incur for picks for equivalent round. So if Will Grham gets bid in R2 and that is when Suns go into deficit, keen to see how the rules are applied.

But as I said Suns should have a deficit by Pick 13, a small one atleast and given they have Dogs F1 + theirs, keen to see if any deficit gets applied.

If both picks are after 13, what if they bundle both to move up above pick 13.

 

[Scythe]

No chance North is taking Curtin

Come to papa

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

You are right.

In this case Freo had pick 9 in 2020 and slid to pick 12 with 264.9 points deficit. They matched bid for Liam henry at pick 9 in 2019 as well.

If Freo had pick 8 or lower, would the pick have been affected is the question. ( Freo had pick 7 but Dons got 2 compo picks after 6 that pushed their pick to 9)

From memory the rules were clarified after that to say deficit would only incur for picks for equivalent round. So if Will Grham gets bid in R2 and that is when Suns go into deficit, keen to see how the rules are applied.

But as I said Suns should have a deficit by Pick 13, a small one atleast and given they have Dogs F1 + theirs, keen to see if any deficit gets applied.

If both picks are after 13, what if they bundle both to move up above pick 13.

The Suns will have the points.

As you say, they will further split their picks when the draft starts to gain more. Also as bids are matched the later picks move in, making them worth more points. The Suns will be crossing their fingers that Croft gets bid on before Rogers, meaning they gain even more points.

I think Rogers goes a bit later than 13 but we will see.

As you say, if Graham is in R2 the deficit goes on the Suns R2, and they won't car about that in the slightest. If all 4 are in round 1 they may live trade a 2024 pick forward to cover it.

 

[briztoon]

I think this will be first time a team will go into big deficit after matching bids, their top pick next yr will almost surely be downgraded and maybe even to round 2.

They lost some 9+ players and some of them were rookie listed. Think they have only 6 senior list spots open & taking only 24, 26, 27, 32, 36, 38 to draft.

I did some calculations and assuming they match 3 bids based on Cal Twomey's draft rankings, 2,9,13 they will be in deficit by around 500pts by pick 13(even after some of their later picks move up & gain points). That would mean their F1 next yr is likely to downgraded by 4-5 picks.

Would be even worse if Will Graham gets a R1 bid, add another 700 pts deficit pushing deficit to 1200+. if their top pick is Pick 5, it will become pick 29. Luckily they have 2 F1's.

Most times clubs don't get big deficit for R1 picks and so the rules never get clarified.

I remember reading that deficit is calculated from same round and same pick spot. So in above scenario if their deficit is taken from picks after pick 13 in 2024, then they may get lucky.

I do hear there are likely to trade some of their picks for added points but they should add another 200 pts max to the kitty, so there will still be a decent deficit.

26(729) for Freo's 34,46(873)
24(785) for Lions 39,51,54(925)

Using current ladder positions, they hold 4,10,20,24,37,46 for 2024. They may be able to move some of the R2,R3 picks to clubs with picks in 30's/40's( not a lot as most of these picks are held by Suns,Dogs & hawks anyway)

GC won’t go in to deficit. I’m at work, so don’t have time to explain it all, but I’ve also done some theoretical bids and matching exercises.

Yes they will have to make some trades, and that Lions one will be a probable trade.

You need to factor in residual picks, when there are points left over from matching a bid, and you need to factor in picks moving up the draft order.

For example if the Suns and Lions make that trade, both picks 51 and 54 will move up the draft order by 4 spots, which adds an extra 96 points.

The Suns residual picks will also move up the draft order, gaining in points.

 

[hawkinoz]

GC won’t go in to deficit. I’m at work, so don’t have time to explain it all, but I’ve also done some theoretical bids and matching exercises.

Yes they will have to make some trades, and that Lions one will be a probable trade.

You need to factor in residual picks, when there are points left over from matching a bid, and you need to factor in picks moving up the draft order.

For example if the Suns and Lions make that trade, both picks 51 and 54 will move up the draft order by 4 spots, which adds an extra 96 points.

The Suns residual picks will also move up the draft order, gaining in points.

Keen to see your working outs, I had factored all those in using their existing picks.

If they make those trades then they gain extra 200-300 points + the picks move up 200 or so points.

They will surely be in deficit for Graham bid in 20's.

Need them to get many things right, most importantly low bid matches. Other clubs know their predicament, so they will have to give up their F3's to get that lions trade.

I think hawks should bid on Read at 4, matches a key need for us.

Only reason not to is if are Suns are willing to trade one of their late 30's pick for 49,62,63 to be parked with Eagles to then trade back to us after McCabe bid.

Suns 36(502) or 38(465) -> 49,62,63 ( 513)
Hawks gets WCE F3
WCE F3 -> 36

Even though at outset it is only extra 10-50pts, they grow to 100-150 after bid matches.

After McCabe bid, we trade our F2(Pies) for WCE 37( +58 maybe for points for Dear)

if we trade our pick 4 for Dees 6+11 then there is no need to do trade with Suns as our list will be full. 6,11,McCabe,Dear + Chad & Cooper)

 

[WilloTree]

The last NM first round pick seems to have disappeared?

hmmmm. Not sure what happened there. Will amend. thanks

Edit - Koen Sanchez is missing as well. I was sure I'd picked him before Ashton Moir (otherwise I would have picked him for Freo )

I think I deleted a line (NM), then when I reshuffled the picks Sanchez went as well. Also explains why is jumps from 26 to 28.

Edit Edit I'm pretty relieved actually. Collard is worth a 1st Rounder and I'd be a bit surprised if Sanchez isn't selected by someone.

 

[WilloTree]

Don't mind the Will Brown selection for us but I would prefer small forward Lance Collard(area of need) who went the pick after. Lions do not need another ruckman(Visentini) IMO, already have 2 main rucks in McInerney and Fort and 2 developing rucks in the reserves, I would of went Wil Dawson who as a key back/fwd is a need area for us.

Thanks. Good feedback. Appreciated.

 

[WilloTree]

No chance North is taking Curtin

It's a pick I really like. I know a lot of these Phantom Draft just pump out the same 20 blokes, but I tried to look at it with fresh eyes.

ie - what would North be excited about at pick 4?

I like Duursma at Pick 3 and hear they're pretty keen, so that was pretty easy. Now that they've drafted a medium forward, what next?
Well, another mid would be insane given the currency invested to date.
Do they go another forward? I like Watson, but can't remember another draft where someone 170cms went top 4. Can't even remember one going top 10. 1st round?
They'd love Reid of Croft - but no dice due to match bids
That brought me to Curtin. He's a point of difference, versatile, great size and has huge upside - possible more than any player in the draft. I reckon you could literally play him anywhere. Yep - that'll do me.

Hope you like my weird thought process

Out of interest, who would you draft at pick 4 for North?

 

[pK75]

It's a pick I really like. I know a lot of these Phantom Draft just pump out the same 20 blokes, but I tried to look at it with fresh eyes.

ie - what would North be excited about at pick 4?

I like Duursma at Pick 3 and hear they're pretty keen, so that was pretty easy. Now that they've drafted a medium forward, what next?
Well, another mid would be insane given the currency invested to date.
Do they go another forward? I like Watson, but can't remember another draft where someone 170cms went top 4. Can't even remember one going top 10. 1st round?
They'd love Reid of Croft - but no dice due to match bids
That brought me to Curtin. He's a point of difference, versatile, great size and has huge upside - possible mare than any player in the draft. I reckon you could literally play him anywhere. Yep - that'll do me.

Hope you like my weird thought process

Out of interest, who would you draft at pick 4 for North?

It blows my mind that North would consider not picking Curtin, he fills a massive hole in their list plus has the versatility to go forward or through the midfield if they need some size in there. The only possible reason I can see is if they think he’s a flight risk to come back to WA in 2-3 years and after the JHF saga, can see that may be a factor.

 

[weltschmerz]

Out of interest, who would you draft at pick 4 for North?

Curtin, easily, but they seem very hesitant to use high picks on talls.

 

[FB19]

GC won’t go in to deficit. I’m at work, so don’t have time to explain it all, but I’ve also done some theoretical bids and matching exercises.

Yes they will have to make some trades, and that Lions one will be a probable trade.

You need to factor in residual picks, when there are points left over from matching a bid, and you need to factor in picks moving up the draft order.

For example if the Suns and Lions make that trade, both picks 51 and 54 will move up the draft order by 4 spots, which adds an extra 96 points.

The Suns residual picks will also move up the draft order, gaining in points.

Yes if the suns list management team are smart (big if considering recent behaviour) they will target all the late picks with each trade they do that other clubs won’t use that will become more valuable. Sides like dons hawks freo lions Richmond all viable candidates you only need to get 200 points per trade and that’s most of what they need then the values increase for late picks probably does the rest.

 

[marcmurphy3]

It blows my mind that North would consider not picking Curtin, he fills a massive hole in their list plus has the versatility to go forward or through the midfield if they need some size in there. The only possible reason I can see is if they think he’s a flight risk to come back to WA in 2-3 years and after the JHF saga, can see that may be a factor.

It does seem odd. Personally think he fills more of a need then Duursma. Though maybe they really rate Dursma.

Sheezel, Wardlaw, JHF(traded), Phillips, Powell, Thomas, LDU

Those are North's first rounders since their rebuild started. Pretty much all mids or mid/forwards. If you take it further and look at 2nd rounders:

Walker, Comben, Mahoney, Perez, Lazzaro, Spicer, Goater, Curtis, Bergman, George

The only tall there is Comben. So in the last 6 drafts the kangaroos have taken 17 first and second round picks and of those only one player is 190cm plus. And they are going smaller again with their early picks (2,3).

Quite incredible almost to the point it must be intentional. Maybe Rawlings doesn't like the risk/reward of using early picks on talls. Doesn't mean their rebuild won't work but certainly a unique approach.

 

[briztoon]

Keen to see your working outs, I had factored all those in using their existing picks.

If they make those trades then they gain extra 200-300 points + the picks move up 200 or so points.

They will surely be in deficit for Graham bid in 20's.

Need them to get many things right, most importantly low bid matches. Other clubs know their predicament, so they will have to give up their F3's to get that lions trade.

I think hawks should bid on Read at 4, matches a key need for us.

Only reason not to is if are Suns are willing to trade one of their late 30's pick for 49,62,63 to be parked with Eagles to then trade back to us after McCabe bid.

Suns 36(502) or 38(465) -> 49,62,63 ( 513)
Hawks gets WCE F3
WCE F3 -> 36

Even though at outset it is only extra 10-50pts, they grow to 100-150 after bid matches.

After McCabe bid, we trade our F2(Pies) for WCE 37( +58 maybe for points for Dear)

if we trade our pick 4 for Dees 6+11 then there is no need to do trade with Suns as our list will be full. 6,11,McCabe,Dear + Chad & Cooper)

Without knowing where the bids are coming, you can't be exact, so I looked more at what they can match.

I only looked at their first three kids.

If Graham is bid on in the first round, then that is a problem, but if a bid comes in the second round, it's not really an issue, as any deficit is carried over to the Suns future second round picks, and if they don't hold a future second round pick, it will come off their future third and fourth round picks.

Next, Twomey reported from his calculations that teams will take between 52 and 62 picks to the draft. That means when the Suns match a bid and use multiple picks to do so, the first pick moves up the draft order to where the bid is made, the second pick because all it's points are used up, moves to the end of the draft order, and the third pick, if it holds residual points will slot into it's place in the draft order. That second pick will moving to pick 62, and here is where I am not sure, but I believe if that pick slots in at pick 62, it should have the points value of pick 62, and if that pick moves up after the bid on Ethan Read, it will now be at pick 60 or 61, and worth the points attached to pick.

After the Read bid, Gold Coast will have between two or four picks at the end of the draft, which are still worth points, and/or well as a residual pick or two higher up the draft order.

 

[FB19]

Without knowing where the bids are coming, you can't be exact, so I looked more at what they can match.

I only looked at their first three kids.

If Graham is bid on in the first round, then that is a problem, but if a bid comes in the second round, it's not really an issue, as any deficit is carried over to the Suns future second round picks, and if they don't hold a future second round pick, it will come off their future third and fourth round picks.

Next, Twomey reported from his calculations that teams will take between 52 and 62 picks to the draft. That means when the Suns match a bid and use multiple picks to do so, the first pick moves up the draft order to where the bid is made, the second pick because all it's points are used up, moves to the end of the draft order, and the third pick, if it holds residual points will slot into it's place in the draft order. That second pick will moving to pick 62, and here is where I am not sure, but I believe if that pick slots in at pick 62, it should have the points value of pick 62, and if that pick moves up after the bid on Ethan Read, it will now be at pick 60 or 61, and worth the points attached to pick.

After the Read bid, Gold Coast will have between two or four picks at the end of the draft, which are still worth points, and/or well as a residual pick or two higher up the draft order.

I don’t understand the second pick part aren’t you over complicating it? Bid comes at a pick. Points value calculated and reduced by 20%. Bid matching team uses as many picks in sequence to get to total points value after discount, then any residual is slotted in as a new pick where that residual points value sits i.e. if 90 points left over it equates to pick 65. If there are more than 65 live picks at that time it becomes 65 otherwise it becomes the last live pick in the draft, in your scenario 63. Then it is deemed a live pick same as all others. When next bid comes it remains at 63 then if it is not the suns matching or they don’t use 63 to match, 63 comes in based on 1 pick being added and x picks prior being used up. Does that make sense?