AFL 2023 - AFL Round 12

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Callum Coleman-Jones 2+@$4.40 SB
3+@$14 SB
4+@$61 SB
5+@$201 TAB

Has been a bit of a goal kicking machine in the VFL and Essendon have had a bit of trouble with the real big boys. Coleman-Jones looked really good a couple of weeks ago, taking some big clunks and could have easily kicked more than 2. Is in general a spud though, so I’ll just throw some beer money at the big galoot at all stations for interest in the game.
 

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Callum Coleman-Jones 2+@$4.40 SB
3+@$14 SB
4+@$61 SB
5+@$201 TAB

Has been a bit of a goal kicking machine in the VFL and Essendon have had a bit of trouble with the real big boys. Coleman-Jones looked really good a couple of weeks ago, taking some big clunks and could have easily kicked more than 2. Is in general a spud though, so I’ll just throw some beer money at the big galoot at all stations for interest in the game.

Don’t mind it. He could be spudly and kick 4 still I reckon by sheer size alone.
 
can we get a sunday miracle either riewoldt or hogan PLEASE at least just get to 3 goals
 
Will Snelling (Ess) paying $26 for 10+ tackles (TAB).

He's hit this 4/55 matches in his career, including once in his four non-sub matches this year.
 
Cadman 2+ - 1u @ $4.60
Cadman 3+ - 0.6u @ $15
Cadman 4+ - 0.2u @ $61

Ward AGS - 1.7u @ $2.75
Ward 2+ - 1u @ $11
Ward 3+ - 0.25u @ $51

Clarke AGS - 1.6u @ $2.10
Clarke 2+ - 1.2u @ $7.50
Clarke 3+ - 0.3u @ $29

Total Outlay = 7.85u
Breaking even here. Need another Ward or Clarke goal - or both!
 

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AFL Stat Multiplier Spreads for Giants v Richmond. Trends based on past 3 years for players. A few reasoning behind of each of the plays.

View attachment 1704223
$1 Stakes

Brent Daniels UNDER 107- this is about 45 points too high. Had a good game last week but 2 goals still should be able to see profit on this selection. I dont also recall him from the past being in the triple digit line.

Callan Ward OVER 48- Have him pencilled in for a goal today, and his averages from last 3 seasons suggets an over is a solid play.

Shai Bolton UNDER 214- To keep it simple , he goes under this line in 45 of his last 54 games. He also averages 142.12 in the stat multiplier in last 3 seasons.

Graham OVER 38- Can oblige with a goal and with a low line.

$0.75 Stakes

Coniglio OVER 97- I feel this is a better selection than taking him on for a goal at $2.50 or thereabouts with sportsbooks. A goal will cover his 97 line based on stats.

$0.50 Stakes

Tom Green OVER 92- Tom Green plays better in home fixtures than away fixtures. Home fixtures= Showgrounds/Manuka Oval/Sydney Olympic Stadium (Accor Stadium). Some interesting stats, in the last 55 AFL games: Tom Green has 16 goals from 24 home games. And at the same time, Tom Green has 6 goals from 31 away games. So he clearly is a player that prefers home surroundings. And I missed out on the week he got 1071 in his Stat Multiplier down at Manuka. Lets go against the trend and back him in for a goal today.


Note Graham- has changed to 41 line now at the time of writing, which Ill use in my final P & L.

backed on ward


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