AFL 2023 - AFL Round 13

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[GROTTO]

imagine getting run over by lachie hunter lol

Thats why he went off, even the Doctor was laughing at him.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

First time I’ve ever bet on Moore and the prick spends the last 9 mins on the bench. Also need Collingwood to win but was wanting a Melbourne goal to say wtf are you doing. Thought Moore played 95% of game time. What a joke.

 

[GROTTO]

Grundy/Harrison/Lipinski 1G each @ 7.50 SP BB 1 leg fail.
Grundy/Harrison/Lipinski 2G each @ 201 SP BB 1 leg fail.

Grundy misses a soda too in that quarter.

 

[Robo87]

Yeah i like the low risk side of it but even his disposals are low when he seems to goal. Unlikely he has 8K+7H to go with 1-2 goals. Be more like 5+2

Almost above 18+ if he gets 1 goal from here.

 

[Selim]

ffs fritsch most frustrating player

 

[bulletride]

Joel Smith was a massive letdown as a forward last week but can still get $4 AGS on TS, ~$1.60 everywhere else

Hope some of you managed to hammer this while it was available

 

[BloodRet]

Lol reef McInnes is so bad

 

[dontlimitme]

johnson subbed again lol

 

[Robo87]

Yes McCreery goal for the spread! Now stack those possessions up McCreery!

 

[Robo87]

johnson subbed again lol

He's moving onto my never again list very quickly..

 

[GROTTO]

Pies run of winning close games about to end.

 

[Robo87]

Pies run of winning close games about to end.

Pies also very good in last quarter's ur forgetting.

 

[GROTTO]

Lol reef McInnes is so bad

Equivalent of flushing money down the toilet.

 

[GROTTO]

Pies also very good in last quarter's ur forgetting.

 

[GROTTO]

Yes McCreery goal for the spread! Now stack those possessions up McCreery!

I think he will kick another, he is sharking goals as a small forward.

 

[Selim]

Would love another fritsch goal or 2

 

[Nuggetz]

come on chandler give me something

 

[GROTTO]

Game Over.

 

[Nuggetz]

is chandler injured or off?

 

[Selim]

Fritsch 2 behinds this quarter sigh

 

[dontlimitme]

sick finish

 

[Fizza]

sick finish

Just caught the last half of the 4th q after work, great finish

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet Stat Multiplier Melbourne v Collingwood (Goals x Kicks x Handballs), some trends based on past 3 seasons. Tips and advice using a mix of $0.50 and $1 stakes. The expectation is the game will be low scoring today but I hope its a high scoring game. Think it might be a bit higher given an earlier starting time compared to the night game last night.

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Think generally speaking, without Oliver and De Goey, it leaves an opportunity for other players to pick up more ball today.


$1 Stakes

OVER 30 Ed Langdon- good spot to get for the over since its double his set line.

OVER 58 Max Gawn- averages 60 or so in the past 3 season. I feel like him and Grundy will probably spend 50% of time in forward and ruck. Melbourne need to probably chuck one of these two in there as to be fair their forward looks a bit short up front. I actually dont think Melbourne have any great matchups going against Darcy Moore so expect them to throw a bit of a wildcard with one of their rucks up front. Gotta remember Darcy Moore is 203 cm. JVR is 193 cm and Fritsch is 188 cm, so it seems logical to play one of the rucks in the forward line throughout the game.

OVER 53 Grundy- I had him pencilled him for a best on ground in one of my earlier bets for Neale Daniher Medal before it got cancelled by PointsBet. I guess I can understand why PointsBet cancelled it now, they may think he has a good game against his old team. Happy to take him here as he has been named full forward to start the game. I believe 1 goal is possible. Im not too keen to take him for multiple goals but that could very well happen as well. Actually $6.25 for 2+ Goals is pretty decent.

OVER 45 Bayley Fritsch- averages 53 or so past 3 seasons and 2 goals should seem him cover this line. Line was set higher 2 weeks ago at 56-66.

OVER 49 Viney- Can see him obliging with a goal and should get more CBAs without Oliver one would imagine. Im going against the averages here and says he can score a goal today.

OVER 33 Hunter- The line is about average for a player of his sort. I dont see him scoring a goal today but given the plethora of Dees goalscorers I dont want to miss out for a lowish line here.

OVER 50 Chandler- I have him in my AFL Fantasy side but its his ceiling of 312 this year that entices me.

OVER 23 Scott Pendlebury- I didnt have time to research if he has won a Neale Daniher medal before but he performs well on big occassion. Think of the times he has won the ANZAC Medal. Cheap play for a player thats line is set at 24.5 disposals. A goal on the big occassion isnt out of the reckoning.

OVER 18 McCreery- a play based on averages alone based on 3 seasons. I dont have him pencilled in for a goal. Maybe his mum speech to the team on mothers day will lift him.

OVER 27 Jack Crisp- cheap play for a player that averages 40.56 over the last 3 seasons. I dont have him pencilled in for a goal today.


$0.50 Stakes

OVER 69 Mitchell- I dont see him scoring a goal today but its a play based on his averages past 3 seasons.

Result of the Stat Multiplier from PointsBet (Goals x Kicks x Handballs):

OVER 30 Ed Langdon=-$30

OVER 58 Max Gawn=-$58

OVER 53 Grundy-=-$11

OVER 45 Bayley Fritsch=-$21

OVER 49 Viney- =+$198

OVER 33 Hunter- =-$33

OVER 50 Chandler=-$50

OVER 23 Scott Pendlebury-=-$23

OVER 18 McCreery=+$6

OVER 27 Jack Crisp-=+$168


$0.50 Stakes

OVER 69 Mitchell=-$34.50


Overall Net Profit and Loss from Melbourne v Collingwood tips=+$111.50

 

[HTPunter]

Spargo tackles if Pickett goes mid

2 $1.70
4 $5.50
6 $26

Not a tackler but will have to lift today

This was looking good until he got subbed