balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
- 25,060
- 29,847
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Balmain, GreenBay, Edmonton, Celtic
- Moderator
- #1
AFL 2023 - AFL Round 17
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
I knew Howard wasn't going as well as the others. Hope it gets up.
- Sep 25, 2013
- 14,534
- 22,165
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Norwich City, Detroit Pistons
Yeah 15m snap straight in front
2 Milkshakes!!
- May 20, 2016
- 7,718
- 11,612
- AFL Club
- GWS
damn melbourne are rubbish
Good info, NYRB. 219 marks total. Shame I couldn't make any money from it.
$1260 multi missed by one mark.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 33,149
- 10,049
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
That stings mate.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 33,149
- 10,049
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Ridley 6+ Marks crunched into $1.35. Id imagine that would be a lock for tomorrow.
Sportsbet line for Essendon v Adelaide is 177.5 points, which probably indicates less of a marks-fest tomorrow compared to the game tonight.
Sportsbet line for Essendon v Adelaide is 177.5 points, which probably indicates less of a marks-fest tomorrow compared to the game tonight.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 33,149
- 10,049
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
its a bit of a weird stat but the Docklands has seen more games this season with marks than points.
More Marks than Points= 20 games
More Points than Marks= 5 games
Marks equal to Points=1 game
My projected model predicts around 177 marks or so in the Essendon v Adelaide game tomorrow. Adelaide from my viewing dont tend to chip the ball around defence too much.
Here is one as a bit of an early play
Zerk-Thatcher 6+ Marks
Peter Wright 6+ Marks
Kyle Langford 6+ Marks
Laverde 6+ Marks
Jake Kelly 6+ Marks
Under 177.5 Points
Odds: $61 (TAB)
Two meter Peter managed to pull in 9 marks last year against the Crows. I think the Crows dont really have a good matchup for him if he plays forward.
And a bit of a lotto since Rachele, managed to pull 9 marks last year in the same corresponding game:
Zerk-Thatcher 6+ Marks
Peter Wright 6+ Marks
Kyle Langford 6+ Marks
Laverde 6+ Marks
Jake Kelly 6+ Marks
Rachele 6+ Marks
Under 177.5 Points
Odds: $301 (TAB)
Its a finals like game with both teams looking to cement their Top 8 positions, so will be like a finals like game. Last years game at the Docklands had 181 marks combined. Whats important for me was the early nature of the match in Round 4. This game has a bit of a different tempo to it with both teams just wanting to win. And can be treated like an 8 pointer and mini-final.
More Marks than Points= 20 games
More Points than Marks= 5 games
Marks equal to Points=1 game
My projected model predicts around 177 marks or so in the Essendon v Adelaide game tomorrow. Adelaide from my viewing dont tend to chip the ball around defence too much.
Here is one as a bit of an early play
Zerk-Thatcher 6+ Marks
Peter Wright 6+ Marks
Kyle Langford 6+ Marks
Laverde 6+ Marks
Jake Kelly 6+ Marks
Under 177.5 Points
Odds: $61 (TAB)
Two meter Peter managed to pull in 9 marks last year against the Crows. I think the Crows dont really have a good matchup for him if he plays forward.
And a bit of a lotto since Rachele, managed to pull 9 marks last year in the same corresponding game:
Zerk-Thatcher 6+ Marks
Peter Wright 6+ Marks
Kyle Langford 6+ Marks
Laverde 6+ Marks
Jake Kelly 6+ Marks
Rachele 6+ Marks
Under 177.5 Points
Odds: $301 (TAB)
Its a finals like game with both teams looking to cement their Top 8 positions, so will be like a finals like game. Last years game at the Docklands had 181 marks combined. Whats important for me was the early nature of the match in Round 4. This game has a bit of a different tempo to it with both teams just wanting to win. And can be treated like an 8 pointer and mini-final.
- Sep 25, 2013
- 14,534
- 22,165
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Norwich City, Detroit Pistons
Ollie Henry 4-6 @7.25, 19, 54 topsport. Think he's due for a big day out
Or maybe Stengle. Done him 5 into Stringer 3 @60 and Fogarty 4 @120 for a sweat into the next game if he kicks a bag
Or maybe Stengle. Done him 5 into Stringer 3 @60 and Fogarty 4 @120 for a sweat into the next game if he kicks a bag
- Sep 25, 2013
- 14,534
- 22,165
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Norwich City, Detroit Pistons
Also like Miers 3 @46 sb
LDU 1,2 @ 4.50,51
Close 2,3,4,5 @ 3,8.50,30,125
365
Close 2,3,4,5 @ 3,8.50,30,125
365
- Dec 2, 2017
- 29,293
- 17,863
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Can’t believe Freo are 1.8 at home against Carlton without a ruck and fraudulent wins against the bloody Suns and Hawks
Freo look overs to me
Pearce and co can lock down Curnow and McKay too
Freo look overs to me
Pearce and co can lock down Curnow and McKay too
Can't find much value for geelong goal kickers, so I'll go a couple fringe forwards that will be running forward if it's a land slide.
Mitch Duncan
2+ $9
3+ $41. Pb
Has had a ping at the goals last 2 games, kicking 1.1 and 0.1
Zach 2e
Breaks Jim stynes record as games played for an Irishman. Loves a goal and they will look for him.
2+ $8
3+ $29
This guy burns me, but if he has the same heat map as last week today against norf he "should" kick 5
Gryan m
2+ $6.50
3+ $21
4+ $67
Mitch Duncan
2+ $9
3+ $41. Pb
Has had a ping at the goals last 2 games, kicking 1.1 and 0.1
Zach 2e
Breaks Jim stynes record as games played for an Irishman. Loves a goal and they will look for him.
2+ $8
3+ $29
This guy burns me, but if he has the same heat map as last week today against norf he "should" kick 5
Gryan m
2+ $6.50
3+ $21
4+ $67
Attachments
Fizza
All Australian
Tailed Miers, @ 365 1-4
AGS $2
2+ $6
3+ $23
4+ $100
AGS $2
2+ $6
3+ $23
4+ $100
- May 20, 2016
- 7,718
- 11,612
- AFL Club
- GWS
jack henry forward today?
Tuohy points multiplier looks good to me. Will likely be fed a goal at some stage.
Line of 63.
Last 3 weeks kicks & handballs
19 & 9
12 & 6
14 & 10
Kicked 0.1 each week so has been close.
At approx $2.00-2.10 AGS I like him to clear 126 if he kicks a goal so feel like better value here - $8 for 2 probably better value than 1 though
Line of 63.
Last 3 weeks kicks & handballs
19 & 9
12 & 6
14 & 10
Kicked 0.1 each week so has been close.
At approx $2.00-2.10 AGS I like him to clear 126 if he kicks a goal so feel like better value here - $8 for 2 probably better value than 1 though
Bailey Scott still $1.40 (TAB) for 4 marks, as the exit wingman + switch receiver role on back flanks he will always be a candidate for 4 cheap easy marks, especially when the other side is going to control field position and North is going to have to try retain the ball to get out of D50.
It’s not fashionable at all but 12/15 this year is solid form for $1.40. As GROTTO I think said yesterday - it’s a real bread and water bet, not aiming for cocaine and strippers.
$2.50 for 6 (6/15 this year) less likely but still a solid value bet in my eyes for his role.
It’s not fashionable at all but 12/15 this year is solid form for $1.40. As GROTTO I think said yesterday - it’s a real bread and water bet, not aiming for cocaine and strippers.
$2.50 for 6 (6/15 this year) less likely but still a solid value bet in my eyes for his role.
Hinge > 80 fantasy is 3.90 at neds. Beaten it two weeks straight and Essendon leak fantasy to oppo defenders. Should be $1.80 like it is at PointsBet.
Simpkin over 23.5 1.92 and over 90 fantasy 2.40 on neds. Good odds with wardlaw out. Ditto Greenwood over 80 at 2.55
Simpkin over 23.5 1.92 and over 90 fantasy 2.40 on neds. Good odds with wardlaw out. Ditto Greenwood over 80 at 2.55
- Sep 25, 2013
- 14,534
- 22,165
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Norwich City, Detroit Pistons
Get ****ed oli Henry
