AFL 2023 - AFL Round 2

[balmainforever]

 

[bulletride]

Enough with these stats and analysis nerds. What backman is gonna play forward and kick 3 goals at $450 odds.

Ben Miller played a ruck/fwd role and is at defender odds. Didn't exactly set the world on fire and no idea if they'll persist but worth a few bucks at these odds.

B365
AGS $5
2+ $41
3+ $351

 

[BloodRet]

Sup LEGENDS. I was perma banned but the mods just kindly let me back in after some discussion. Will be posting on here with a bar of soap in my mouth this year as I’m on my last warning.

Didn’t have much luck in the first round, I turned into a filthy lurker and was on the Cunningham 3 train got pretty close!! Great tip anyway. Ahhhh it’s good to be back in the degen cave

 

[burge13]

HE RETURNS!

 

[Atavistic]

Sup LEGENDS. I was perma banned but the mods just kindly let me back in after some discussion. Will be posting on here with a bar of soap in my mouth this year as I’m on my last warning.

Didn’t have much luck in the first round, I turned into a filthy lurker and was on the Cunningham 3 train got pretty close!! Great tip anyway. Ahhhh it’s good to be back in the degen cave

Can't wait for your next "FFS Lynch you useless campaigner". Welcome back.

 

[Nuggetz]

Sup LEGENDS. I was perma banned but the mods just kindly let me back in after some discussion. Will be posting on here with a bar of soap in my mouth this year as I’m on my last warning.

Didn’t have much luck in the first round, I turned into a filthy lurker and was on the Cunningham 3 train got pretty close!! Great tip anyway. Ahhhh it’s good to be back in the degen cave

Welcome back mate, stay away from the collingwood boards & most other boards haha. Are you allowed back on the syd board?

 

[sohohoho]

You need stats for 6 day break vs 9 day break, with the 6 day break team playing in 35 degree heat, otherwise the data is close to meaningless.

There is only ever room to gain a slight edge in gambling, you need precision.

Using data that involves 7 day break vs 6 day break with the 6 day break team playing in 18 degree conditions is largely meaningless in the context of this weekend's game.

Well you are not going to get any data for this example as it just wouldn't have happened with these temperatures.
Original post was using it as a reason for a bet in the Bris game, never mentioned the Adelaide game

 

[kicksome]

Who comes in for kozzie picket?

I'm wondering if lions pull their finger out and put in a better performance this time around.
I'll go back to the well with this bloke, kicked 1.0 in the sides ordinary effort

Will Ashcroft
AGS $3
2+ $15
3+ $71

 

[bulletride]

Blake Hardwick

15

Blake Hardwick

Age

28

Ht

183cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.8

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.1

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.7

4star

MG

264.7

4star

D

13.8

3star

K

9.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.7

3star

MG

264.7

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.4

4star

went forward in the second half and kicked 2

B365
AGS $6
2+ $67
3+ $501

 

[sohohoho]

I think 1 day is shown to be insignificant but 2 days or more has an impact which is just common sense. 3 days for Tigers should mean something especially after the conditions the Crows played in.

2 days are similar to 1 and almost 50-50.

3+ is very rare so not a ton of data, it's not like this isn't factored in to the line also.

Richmond cover this week but it's not to do with the break

 

[Veer Right]

Well you are not going to get any data for this example as it just wouldn't have happened with these temperatures.
Original post was using it as a reason for a bet in the Bris game, never mentioned the Adelaide game

HALF the reason for ONE leg and MANY posts later... You got me on an oversight!

I mentioned the heat in the other game and now you got nothing?

Take a walk Mister Personality

 

[sohohoho]

Who comes in for kozzie picket?

I'm wondering if lions pull their finger out and put in a better performance this time around.
I'll go back to the well with this bloke, kicked 1.0 in the sides ordinary effort

Will Ashcroft
AGS $3
2+ $15
3+ $71

Fritsch

 

[Del125763]

I didnt place that many bets in Round 1, but the bets I did place, all lost.

Looking for a bounceback in Round 2.

Instinctive tips:

Carlton by 8 pts
Dees by 5 pts
Collingwood by 10 pts
Adelaide by 13 pts
Bulldogs by 15 pts
Kangaroos by 11 pts
Sydney by 45 pts
Essendon by 32 pts
West Coast by 10 pts


I watched 7 of the 9 games that round. (Watched bit and pieces of Demons v Dees) Might also look into a few AFL Fantasy Points bet. Dockers and Port look to be playing a similar style of game to 2022. Can see Freo defenders again raking up points again this season. Didnt watch Ess v Hawks or full game of Dees v Dogs. (i was busy watching Womens Premier League cricket )

Team rankings for Round 1 AFL Fantasy and Rank last season on average of 2022:

Dockers 1800 (5th)
Swans 1777 (8th)
Demons 1765 (10th)
Bombers 1732 (11th)
Power 1649 (3rd)
Magpies 1624 (12th)
Hawks 1569 (13th)
Kangaroos 1558 (18th)
Eagles 1540 (16th)
Tigers 1537 (14th)
Saints 1494 (2nd)
Giants 1488 (7th)
Blues 1462 (4th)
Suns 1456 (17th)
Bulldogs 1456 (6th)
Crows 1433 (15th)
Cats 1285 (1st)
Lions 1129 (9th)


Dockers can see them being more defensively and playing that slower style that are well known for. Hinkley is a coach under pressure and I too dont think their game style will change too much from 2022. Against Collingwood this week, I think they will play a similar sort of game they did against them in 2022 at the MCG. They as a team scored 201 AFL Fantasy points more than their opposition that day. Eagles too will play a similar style to Freo and I think generally speaking both WA teams will look to play their similar brands from past years. Alot of teams seem to be playing on at all costs to break the defensive zones but not the WA teams. I also sense Geelong being one of the better teams at Fantasy, will go back to what made them successful , and look to go slow with players like Tom Stewart controlling the backline.

Giants observation yesterday, is they will throw more caution to the wind, and Fantasy points doesnt matter to them anymore. Under Leon Cameron

Leon Cameron

Age

53

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.2

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.7

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.9

3star

No current season stats available

D

20.8

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.8

3star

and Mark McVeigh

Mark Mcveigh

Age

44

Ht

184cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.1

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

5.5

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.0

5star

No current season stats available

D

18.4

5star

K

13.6

5star

HB

4.8

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

alot of their players were looking to stat-pad. Under Kingsley, they look to want to move the ball on at all costs.

If your having a bet on Goalscorer bets for Freo v Roos, it wouldnt be a bad idea to have some insurance on defenders in Fantasy or some multi involved in them with disposals. Their slow ball movement yesterday made it too predictable for the Saints defence to set up and pick them off. JL also mentioned in press conference is they arent hitting the panic stations yet and my view is they wont change their style after 1 game. They are quite prepared to win, and win ugly.

And did my own research last week that found Supercoach a better indicator of team success than Fantasy. Havent seen TAB offer Supercoach prices this season. (Its something they offered in previous seasons)

AFL Fantasy is a horrible way to determine if a player is having a good game. But no doubt, there are players out there looking to stat-pad as the season goes on.

 

[sohohoho]

HALF the reason for ONE leg and MANY posts later... You got me on an oversight!

I mentioned the heat in the other game and now you got nothing?

Take a walk Mister Personality

Settle down peanut.

 

[Suncraze]

1.5u Lions +2.5 $1.90

 

[mookieb]

2 days are similar to 1 and almost 50-50.

3+ is very rare so not a ton of data, it's not like this isn't factored in to the line also.

Richmond cover this week but it's not to do with the break

What are the results for 2 days extra break? It also depends on the data anlalysed because the shorter the break the more detrimental.

 

[GROTTO]

Sup LEGENDS. I was perma banned but the mods just kindly let me back in after some discussion. Will be posting on here with a bar of soap in my mouth this year as I’m on my last warning.

Didn’t have much luck in the first round, I turned into a filthy lurker and was on the Cunningham 3 train got pretty close!! Great tip anyway. Ahhhh it’s good to be back in the degen cave

 

[kicksome]

Blake Hardwick went forward in the second half and kicked 2

B365
AGS $6
2+ $67
3+ $501

Damn the b365 multiple goal kickers isn't showing up for me from that game

 

[Nuggetz]

Blake Hardwick went forward in the second half and kicked 2

B365
AGS $6
2+ $67
3+ $501

cant see the market anymore

 

[Johanpetro]

cant see the market anymore

Went from $67 for 2 goals, to $42 to $24 then they took market down.

 

[bulletride]

Damn the b365 multiple goal kickers isn't showing up for me from that game

cant see the market anymore

Nan's account gave it a hammering, looks like they've suspended the market

 

[Johanpetro]

Nan's account gave it a hammering, looks like they've suspended the market

My nan made a few bets from the grave god bless her

 

[Johanpetro]

Went from $67 for 2 goals, to $42 to $24 then they took market down.

Reopened now at $6.50 for 2

 

[Selim]

those odds for those carlton smalls like martin/owies/motlop are hella juicy all about @5 for 2 but fmd they spudded it up last week

aiming for a better week this week as ill actually be home for the entire round and can actually shop around and not just stick with Sportsbet lmao

 

[burge13]

Fritsch

This isnt the "heads Id like to punch" thread

 

[kicksome]

Sam switowski kicked 1.2 in a shit show against the saints. Now Freo go back home and host the Kangas

2+ $3.90
3+ $11

B365