AFL 2023 - AFL Round 6

[balmainforever]

 

[GROTTO]

thanks for playing one ******* quarter pies u *******s

They play 4 quarters and many trains would have got home.

 

[Cuzz09]

would be hilarious if they voted for the medal at 3qtr time and gave it to Shiel or something

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[dontlimitme]

barring injury nfi how he doesn't win the brownlow

 

[Selim]

I wonder when if this is the start of the downfall of betting for the season happened around this time last year aswell

 

[Cuzz09]

Pretty sure Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

32

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

was winning the Brownlow Saturday night but yes midfielder n stuff

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[dontlimitme]

Pretty sure Jeremy Cameron was winning the Brownlow Saturday night but yes midfielder n stuff

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tom mitchell won the brownlow that year racking up stats and didn't do it anywhere near as impactful or good as daicos plus goals

 

[Del125763]

PointsBet Stat Multiplier for the ANZAC Day game. Stat Multiplier (Kicks x Handballs xGoals). Some reasoning behind each tip (using $1 staking system)

View attachment 1669740

OVER 45 Mihocek- I feel loss of Merrett will affect the Bombers midfield a bit today. In fact Essendon are missing 3 of their better players from last years ANZAC clash in : Waterman, Merrett and 2 metre Peter. Essendon up forward look a bit smaller today. Pies have 3 defenders listed at: 203 cm, 201 cm and 193 cm and Maynard is 189 cm. They are also more physically stronger ranging from 93 kgs to 100 kgs. I sense the ball will live a bit more in the Pies forward line today. And think Mihocek can get a bit more of the ball on ground level and in the air.

OVER 50- Jack Crisp- snagged a goal in last years ANZAC day game and will get a few opportunities at goal. It may be one or it may be two. Im hoping there is plenty of pings at goal.

OVER 38 Steele Sidebottom- a play based on averages in the last 3 years

OVER 74 Jamie Elliott- I sense he has a couple of goals at least him in today.

OVER 68 Darcy Parish- has won the ANZAC Medal before and he knows he will have to step up without his partner in crime today.

Was thinking of adding Tom Mitchell but in 2023 he is playing a different role where he doesnt want to pig on disposals. Under Collingwood, they just want to transition as quick as possible . A faster paced game I feel favours Collingwood, a slower paced game favours Essendon. Feel like Stringer has a bad matchup today to pick up disposals , so Im going to swerve Stringer. I think with a player like him, he is an extremes player- could go very hot on his day or very cold.

Was thinking of adding Scott Pendlebury on the OVERS with his good record on the day but I couldnt do it.


Note : Sidebottoms Line has changed to OVER 46 at the time of writing. I will use this value in my P & L at the end of the game.

OVER 45 Mihocek=-$45

OVER 50- Jack Crisp=-$50

OVER 46 Steele Sidebottom-=+$174

OVER 74 Jamie Elliott- =-$74

OVER 68 Darcy Parish-=-$68

Net Result of the Stat Multiplier for Bombers v Magpies= -$63


That late Sidebottom helped to recoup some losses from that match.

 

[Robo87]

thanks for playing one ******* quarter pies u *******s

i got a bad feeling essendon are gonne screw up a lot of games like that for us punters this year...

 

[dontlimitme]

anyone else think sportsbet might do a marketing thing by paying out daicos to win the brownlow early in the next little while? remember they paid out pies top 4/8 last year early, they love that shit

 

[Robo87]

OVER 45 Mihocek=-$45

OVER 50- Jack Crisp=-$50

OVER 46 Steele Sidebottom-=+$174

OVER 74 Jamie Elliott- =-$74

OVER 68 Darcy Parish-=-$68

Net Result of the Stat Multiplier for Bombers v Magpies= -$63


That late Sidebottom helped to recoup some losses from that match.

i dont know how pies win and Mihocek, Elliott and Hill all go goaless...

 

[Cuzz09]

tom mitchell won the brownlow that year racking up stats and didn't do it anywhere near as impactful or good as daicos plus goals

I think he'll win it no doubt plus he's likable by oppo fans and media love him.

perfect player really.

Shame he plays for that mob [emoji6] (Id say that about any non Eagle though)

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[GROTTO]

I wonder when if this is the start of the downfall of betting for the season happened around this time last year aswell

Ive got graphs for the past 5 years to suggest that is the case.

 

[Cuzz09]

anyone else think sportsbet might do a marketing thing by paying out daicos to win the brownlow early in the next little while? remember they paid out pies top 4/8 last year early, they love that s**t

probably yes by rd 15

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[Suncraze]

Adding 2u Pies -12.5 TAB

0.5u Caldwell 6+ Tackles $3
0.5u Snelling 6+ Tackles $2.50
TAB

Unreal by Jimmy B to sink this, still not sure how. -2u
Adding 1u Pies 13+ Bet Right

Bittersweet that

 

[Selim]

Ive got graphs for the past 5 years to suggest that is the case.

i remember it was the bulldogs vs port game that started my personal downfall last year which went for like 14 weeks lol i believe that was around round 7 or 8

was also the game were Buku Khamis dropped a mark in the goal square which would of probs changed the trajectory of that night

 

[Robo87]

I wonder when if this is the start of the downfall of betting for the season happened around this time last year aswell

yes i have records too, goalscoring odds started getting cut shorter at round 6 last year, it was from that point that it was harder to get wins/make profit from the rounds.. but if you are aware of this its easier to make less mistakes../ bet a little bit smarter.

 

[GROTTO]

i remember it was the bulldogs vs port game that started my personal downfall last year which went for like 14 weeks lol i believe that was around round 7 or 8

was also the game were Buku Khamis dropped a mark in the goal square which would of probs changed the trajectory of that night

I clearlly remember that game I was counting Buku's with you, lol.

 

[Selim]

yes i have records too, goalscoring odds started getting cut shorter at round 6 last year, it was from that point that it was harder to get wins/make profit from the rounds..

alright, well i was being very care free with my bets the last 3 rounds going up to 5, putting 15 on alot, might have to start re thinking of my spending on betting from here on,

maybe stop going to 5 lmao

 

[dontlimitme]

that johno dropped mark in the square gonna haunt me forever

 

[Robo87]

that johno dropped mark in the square gonna haunt me forever

us* , it wont be just you.

 

[Cuzz09]

Best way is prob just pick a player from each team for the season then every week do AGS, 2+, 3+, 4+ etc and at some point you'll have a great day out

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[GROTTO]

balmainforever time for Round 7, this round has left a bitter after taste in Degenerates mouths and its not the Anzac Day biscuits that caused it.

 

[Cuzz09]

lol just dominated an ANZAC bikkie

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[LukeParkerno1]

that johno dropped mark in the square gonna haunt me forever

Useless galah not to mention the missed set shot

 

[GROTTO]

Useless galah not to mention the missed set shot

What f**ked me off was his marking on the wing and outside 50m, took everything.