AFL 2023 - AFL Round 9

[balmainforever]

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

 

[balmainforever]

Surely the Power win by 40+.
even in Hobart

 

[BloodRet]

Brisbane 1-39 seems a safe bet vs Essendon who are $4.45 outsiders, which seems way over anyway. 6 day break and travelling again the only worry but they gave Port a good shake today away from home who are probably on par with Brisbane atm.

 

[sohohoho]

It's a 6 day break

 

[BloodRet]

It's a 6 day break

Yeah just realised

 

[NYRB]

Early plays I like

Sydney -22.5 pt handicap v Freo.

Brisbane -27.5pt handicap v Bombers

Only basing these because I watched the games in which these teams played this weekend.

Freo were good on the weekend but do we really see a world where Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

22

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

can get 2+ Goals again? Frederick get 3+ Goals? At the SCG as well. Where im not sure how many of these Dockers players have played there since 2018. Looking at the team that played there last time 9 players are still on Freos list of 2018, 7 Freo players played there in 2017. West Aussie teams generally dont play the SCG that well too. I feel like this line should be closer to 32.5 points. Freos last 2 losses on this ground have been by: 59 points and 104 points. Swans werent that bad today, Pies just nudged away in the final term. Im thinking that last weeks Derby may have taken the gas out of the Swans in the 4th. Being a day game helps the Swans line here.

Brisbane to cover their line. If Jordan Ridley

14

Jordan Ridley

Age

25

Ht

195cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

4.5

3star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.7

4star

MG

244.8

4star

D

17.0

4star

K

11.9

5star

HB

5.1

3star

M

6.7

5star

T

1.7

3star

MG

265.4

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

4.2

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.4

4star

MG

208.2

4star

doesnt pull up I still think this is a fair price. But if he doesnt , I could see a world where this could go up to -29.5 handicap. Bombers played well today and on another day, could have got a result from todays game. I feel Brisbanes forward line will be a bit too much for this Essendon defence though. Had it not been a more accurate shooting for goal from Port , the margin should have been a lot larger. Zerk-Thatcher was beaten in two weeks by a stronger opponent. Its rare do you see a Victorian side have to back up with two straight interstate trips in the space of 5 days as well.

All of these lines could potentially move with weather, injuries and confirmed lineups, so will keep a close eye on things.

 

[TryAnHit]

Brisbane 1-39 seems a safe bet vs Essendon who are $4.45 outsiders, which seems way over anyway. 6 day break and travelling again the only worry but they gave Port a good shake today away from home who are probably on par with Brisbane atm.

Ess should have lost by about 60 if port kicked straight during the match.

 

[5 Bucks]

Geelong, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Brisbane $2.16 looks like a solid investment.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Ess should have lost by about 60 if port kicked straight during the match.

Not really, Port had 10 more scoring shots.

Teams average close to a 50/50 split, so a ~35 point margin would therefore be expected, not 60.

 

[fpm84]

Said it on the round 8 thread but Richmond +25.5 at B365 (was +26.5 yesterday) looks like free money to me.

Geelong’s list of absent players is now at a tipping point: Dangerfield, Guthrie, De Koning, Close, Stanley, Stengle, J Henry, Rohan. That’s eight premiership players plus Bowes who has been b22 this year.

We will be running a midfield of Blicavs - Atkins - Holmes - Bruhn/Knevitt against Taranto - Hopper - Prestia - Martin/Bolton. Hard to see how we don’t get demolished in the middle.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Said it on the round 8 thread but Richmond +25.5 at B365 (was +26.5 yesterday) looks like free money to me.

Geelong’s list of absent players is now at a tipping point: Dangerfield, Guthrie, De Koning, Close, Stanley, Stengle, J Henry, Rohan. That’s eight premiership players plus Bowes who has been b22 this year.

We will be running a midfield of Blicavs - Atkins - Holmes - Bruhn/Knevitt against Taranto - Hopper - Prestia - Martin/Bolton. Hard to see how we don’t get demolished in the middle.

Hawthorn won the centre clearances on the weekend too

 

[ferrisb]

Brisbane to cover their line. If Jordan Ridley doesnt pull up I still think this is a fair price. But if he doesnt , I could see a world where this could go up to -29.5 handicap. Bombers played well today and on another day, could have got a result from todays game. I feel Brisbanes forward line will be a bit too much for this Essendon defence though. Had it not been a more accurate shooting for goal from Port , the margin should have been a lot larger. Zerk-Thatcher was beaten in two weeks by a stronger opponent. Its rare do you see a Victorian side have to back up with two straight interstate trips in the space of 5 days as well.

Also, Essendon's strong Q1 was driven by a ruck mauling and centre clearance dominance.

Draper and Phillips won't have it so easy against O Mac.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Said it on the round 8 thread but Richmond +25.5 at B365 (was +26.5 yesterday) looks like free money to me.

Geelong’s list of absent players is now at a tipping point: Dangerfield, Guthrie, De Koning, Close, Stanley, Stengle, J Henry, Rohan. That’s eight premiership players plus Bowes who has been b22 this year.

We will be running a midfield of Blicavs - Atkins - Holmes - Bruhn/Knevitt against Taranto - Hopper - Prestia - Martin/Bolton. Hard to see how we don’t get demolished in the middle.

The Louie Lock looms large here.
Loading funds as we speak.
Confirmation tomorrow.

 

[sohohoho]

Not really, Port had 10 more scoring shots.

Teams average close to a 50/50 split, so a ~35 point margin would therefore be expected, not 60.

+12 shots and mid 40s xmargin.

You don't judge scoring shots the same

 

[X_box_X]

After losing our first two third quarters, the Bulldogs have gone D, W, W, W, W, W. The drawn third quarter was in round three against Brisbane who coincidentally are the only other team to have won their previous five third quarters.


LADDER USING ONLY THE THIRD QUARTER





The Bulldogs have conceded the following third quarter scores during their win streak:

• 5
• 3
• 22
• 8
• 4

Their round eight opponent (Carlton) have not been so great in third quarters recently.

2-32 (v Brisbane)
34-3 (v WCE)
9-34 (v St K)
15-20 (v Adelaide)
31-10 (v NM)

Their two winning results there were against weak opposition.

There was a bit of talk about the Bulldogs' second halves after their opening two losses, and it appears that was somewhat addressed.

Also looking back to last year, we were all over Carlton in the third quarter last year. We missed several chances and still outscored them four goals to two.

 

[5 Bucks]

So Carlton to win the 3rd quarter then?

 

[mookieb]

Brisbane 1-39 seems a safe bet vs Essendon who are $4.45 outsiders, which seems way over anyway. 6 day break and travelling again the only worry but they gave Port a good shake today away from home who are probably on par with Brisbane atm.

I have Bris in a tier above Port. They're flying and 100% a contender at this stage.

The miracle has happened and Ess have firmed to +25.5. Travelling back to back with a 6 day break (Bris has a leisurely 8 days). Tough 3 weeks considering they went to Skilled Stadium a couple of weeks ago as well. Port should easily have covered if they had of kicked straight and as mentioned in this thread the 1st qtr dominance was ruck and centre clearance work which won't be repeated against the Lions. In the end a bit of a "heart breaking" loss or chance at a draw so that will probably work against them as well.

Or you could just keep it simple and think that the Ess backline gets smashed with Ridley and Laverde out and Zerk- Thatcher being completely over matched.

 

[Suncraze]

2u Cats/Suns/Port/Dees/Lions $2.86 Lads

 

[Suncraze]

2u Lions -25.5 $1.90

 

[Johanpetro]

Before people started adding Geelong to multis, as mentioned above we are literally gonna have 9 of our best 22 out. Tigers have come in from $4.20 to $3.30 in the space of a few hours .. I’d be staying away from that game at all costs if you think we are a moral

 

[GROTTO]

I have Bris in a tier above Port. They're flying and 100% a contender at this stage.

The miracle has happened and Ess have firmed to +25.5. Travelling back to back with a 6 day break (Bris has a leisurely 8 days). Tough 3 weeks considering they went to Skilled Stadium a couple of weeks ago as well. Port should easily have covered if they had of kicked straight and as mentioned in this thread the 1st qtr dominance was ruck and centre clearance work which won't be repeated against the Lions. In the end a bit of a "heart breaking" loss or chance at a draw so that will probably work against them as well.

Or you could just keep it simple and think that the Ess backline gets smashed with Ridley and Laverde out and Zerk- Thatcher being completely over matched.

Essendon played against the Cats at the G.

 

[Johanpetro]

Essendon played against the Cats at the G.

Not to mention it’s a 40-60 min drive down the highway anyway lol

 

[mac23]

After losing our first two third quarters, the Bulldogs have gone D, W, W, W, W, W. The drawn third quarter was in round three against Brisbane who coincidentally are the only other team to have won their previous five third quarters.


LADDER USING ONLY THE THIRD QUARTER
View attachment 1681866

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[X_box_X]

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