Analysis 2023 - Best 22

[BloodySwan]

Got nothing to do with potential. It's about performance. Buddy's last month of 2022 was poor. A month of poor form has gotten every other forward on our list dropped in the past.

So Buddy gets a pass, because he's Buddy. Fair enough. But when does that pass expire? How many ordinary games do we accept, just because he's Buddy?

How long do we continue to overlook the forward dynamic of Reid, McDonald and McLean, which has proven to work and has looked dangerous every time they've played together, just because of Buddy's free pass?

I don't know the answer to those questions, but to pretend they're not questions worth asking seems counter-productive, and I'd hope the match selection committee certainly aren't so enamoured with Buddy's reputation that they're not asking themselves the same questions.

Buddy gets a pass because he kicks goals. Call me when he is not our top goal scorer.

 

[caesar88]

Buddy gets a pass because he kicks goals. Call me when he is not our top goal scorer.

Will do.

 

[Bloods86]

How long do we continue to overlook the forward dynamic of Reid, McDonald and McLean, which has proven to work and has looked dangerous every time they've played together, just because of Buddy's free pass?

They've played together 3 times in the absence of Buddy.

Rd 1, 2021 (Bris) - Logan 3, Reid 2, McLean 0 - Yep, I'll pass that.

Rd 3, 2021 (Tigers) - Logan 2, Reid 0, McLean 1 - Not a passing grade in a rout.

Rd 5, 2022 (Eagles) - Logan 2, Reid 0, McLean 2 - There was some good work in this game yes, but it was the 2022 Eagles. Not sure I'd be using it to back anything up.

So I'll give you 1 out of 3.

The first Dees game last year (Rd 12) both Reid and Logan kicked 3, Amartey zilch.

In any case, I'll still back Buddy to contribute more on the best KPDs than anyone else in the team, barring maybe peak Reid (who is not the future either). Yes we can use others more, he needs to pull his head in sometimes when trying to bust through tacklers, but I still think we're better with Buddy in the team.

 

[Millky95]

Buddy will get nursed and play as many games as possible to reach 350 by our last H&A game in Sydney

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Buddy will get nursed and play as many games as possible to reach 350 by our last H&A game in Sydney

Reckon you’re right.

But Logan and McL are improving each year, whilst Buddy declines.

Eventually, their trajectories will intersect.

Recent form indicates that intersection may (?) have been reached, at least in Logan’s case (I still don’t see McL as having a particularly high ceiling).

As caesar88 pointed out - the Swans don’t have a history of carrying oldies whose form doesn’t warrant a spot.

 

[caesar88]

They've played together 3 times in the absence of Buddy.

Rd 1, 2021 (Bris) - Logan 3, Reid 2, McLean 0 - Yep, I'll pass that.

Rd 3, 2021 (Tigers) - Logan 2, Reid 0, McLean 1 - Not a passing grade in a rout.

Rd 5, 2022 (Eagles) - Logan 2, Reid 0, McLean 2 - There was some good work in this game yes, but it was the 2022 Eagles. Not sure I'd be using it to back anything up.

So I'll give you 1 out of 3.

The first Dees game last year (Rd 12) both Reid and Logan kicked 3, Amartey zilch.

In any case, I'll still back Buddy to contribute more on the best KPDs than anyone else in the team, barring maybe peak Reid (who is not the future either). Yes we can use others more, he needs to pull his head in sometimes when trying to bust through tacklers, but I still think we're better with Buddy in the team.

I was referring more to the McDonald & McLean partnership specifically. I feel like they work really well together, regardless of who they're paired with. We're 6-1 with those two and in the six wins we average well over 100 points.

As for Buddy, it's probably gotten lost in my scepticism that I still have him in our best 22, as noted on the previous page. I just think he shouldn't get a pass if he has a few poor games, as we've established that's the standard that every other forward is being held to.

That importance on performing and earning his spot every week is even more true now that we're basically overlooking a quality forward dynamic to keep him in the team. He's a mere mortal now, just like the rest of them, which means the scenario for him is just like the rest of them too: perform or get dropped.

 

[Bloods86]

I was referring more to the McDonald & McLean partnership specifically. I feel like they work really well together, regardless of who they're paired with. We're 6-1 with those two and in the six wins we average well over 100 points.

As for Buddy, it's probably gotten lost in my scepticism that I still have him in our best 22, as noted on the previous page. I just think he shouldn't get a pass if he has a few poor games, as we've established that's the standard that every other forward is being held to.

That importance on performing and earning his spot every week is even more true now that we're basically overlooking a quality forward dynamic to keep him in the team. He's a mere mortal now, just like the rest of him, which means the scenario for him is just like the rest of them too: perform or get dropped.

Yeah I'm not doubting they can/could work well together at times. Feel like this is a bit simplistic though, and the goalposts have already moved (I'm not about to go back and check the games Reid didn't play too). But given the 3 examples I gave are in those 6 wins, 2 of which McLean barely contributed to the scoreboard, and the other again, was versus the 2022 Eagles, I still don't agree with the "it always works" line. That's not to say it can't (we'll find out next year), but I don't believe we need to think about dropping Buddy.

I'd counter it with McLean and Logan not always banging down the door from the VFL when they need to be, and the fact that Buddy didn't go consecutive weeks goalless at all last year, only goalless twice. I'd also counter that we don't always drop forwards after several quiet weeks. Reid, McLean, Logan, Hayward have all had quiet patches in the last couple of years. They all got dropped eventually (when it was overdue), though Logan is probably the quickest to go. If anything McLean is the most fortunate.

 

[TheWhiteRhino]

Has Ladhams served his entire suspension? Or does he miss games to start the season?

 

[Maximumlnsanity]

Has Ladhams served his entire suspension? Or does he miss games to start

I don't wanna be rude but this is asked all the time. Yes he has, he's good to go

 

[HighReeve]

When Buddy..There’s not a shadow of doubt that we are better without him.

 

[Callipygian]

As for Buddy, it's probably gotten lost in my scepticism that I still have him in our best 22, as noted on the previous page. I just think he shouldn't get a pass if he has a few poor games, as we've established that's the standard that every other forward is being held to.

That importance on performing and earning his spot every week is even more true now that we're basically overlooking a quality forward dynamic to keep him in the team. He's a mere mortal now, just like the rest of them, which means the scenario for him is just like the rest of them too: perform or get dropped.

I agree with this - but it kind of goes without saying. Obviously if you're not performing you're going to be dropped.

That said, not all players will be treated equally. I will depend on a variety of factors including the player's upside, the depth in their position, what's going on in the background that we don't know about (injuries, personal life), the player's personality and how they may respond etc etc. The days of treating all players the same have gone the way of the fax machine. Still, Buddy's not a protected species.

 

[Donza]

Anyone else have a feeling that Lloyd may not be in the best 22 come July/August or so?

I do.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Anyone else have a feeling that Lloyd may not be in the best 22 come July/August or so?

I do.

It is a really tough question. Few would have worked harder than Jake. I remember the stories of him driving himself running up hills in the off-season when he was establishing himself and surprising they competition.

He is driven and smart and sacrificed the attacking side of his game (seen early in his career and sporadically now when moved up the ground). It would be great if caesar88 did a deep dive on Jake.

Yes his kicking is conservative and floaty and he is not the greatest one on one defender against the best small forwards BUT with Sir Dane he has been the General of our defence and the teams from the backline strategy for seasons. Few have been as intrinsic to our culture. None would have been more self critical of their GF performance.

I expect he will remain best 22 this year but I’m not so sure about 2024.

 

[Donza]

It is a really tough question. Few would have worked harder than Jake. I remember the stories of him driving himself running up hills in the off-season when he was establishing himself and surprising they competition.

He is driven and smart and sacrificed the attacking side of his game (seen early in his career and sporadically now when moved up the ground). It would be great if caesar88 did a deep dive on Jake.

Yes his kicking is conservative and floaty and he is not the greatest one on one defender against the best small forwards BUT with Sir Dane he has been the General of our defence and the teams from the backline strategy for seasons. Few have been as intrinsic to our culture. None would have been more self critical of their GF performance.

I expect he will remain best 22 this year but I’m not so sure about 2024.

IMO.
Its entirely possible that the starting back six look like by mid year.
Mac and Mac.
Rampe
Blakey
Campbell
Florent
Gould/Francis/Cunningham

I'm not sure if lloyd fits into that.

 

[Bloods86]

Anyone else have a feeling that Lloyd may not be in the best 22 come July/August or so?

I do.

Nope. Regardless of what some fans think, the guy's just been given a 3 year extension and named in the leadership group again.

 

[Donza]

Nope. Regardless of what some fans think, the guy's just been given a 3 year extension and named in the leadership group again.

Cunningham and Joey were in the leadership group last year.
At times, It was plausible to suggest neither of them were best 22.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

It is a really tough question. Few would have worked harder than Jake. I remember the stories of him driving himself running up hills in the off-season when he was establishing himself and surprising they competition.

He is driven and smart and sacrificed the attacking side of his game (seen early in his career and sporadically now when moved up the ground). It would be great if caesar88 did a deep dive on Jake.

Yes his kicking is conservative and floaty and he is not the greatest one on one defender against the best small forwards BUT with Sir Dane he has been the General of our defence and the teams from the backline strategy for seasons. Few have been as intrinsic to our culture. None would have been more self critical of their GF performance.

I expect he will remain best 22 this year but I’m not so sure about 2024.

Lloyd will always be under appreciated until he’s gone.

Only then will we realise how good he was.

 

[caesar88]

Cunningham and Joey were in the leadership group last year.
At times, It was plausible to suggest neither of them were best 22.

The difference being they weren't key players in a successful unit for some time before being dropped.

Lloyd came 8th in the best and fairest and got the 4th-most B&F votes in the last 9 games of the season, when our defence was at its best. Only three inside mids polled more. This is pretty clear proof the coaches rated him as the key player in a back-line that was the best it had been in several years.

I think sometimes there's a disconnect between the players we like to watch and the players who make things happen, and that is rarely truer than in the case of Lloyd.

 

[Donza]

The difference being they weren't key players in a successful unit for some time before being dropped.

Lloyd came 8th in the best and fairest and got the 4th-most B&F votes in the last 9 games of the season, when our defence was at its best. Only three inside mids polled more. This is pretty clear proof the coaches rated him as the key player in a back-line that was the best it had been in several years.

I think sometimes there's a disconnect between the players we like to watch and the players who make things happen, and that is rarely truer than in the case of Lloyd.

The thing is I agree with you.
The thing is I also think we (the swans) need to get a bit ruthless in order to win this flag.

 

[Bloods86]

Cunningham and Joey were in the leadership group last year.
At times, It was plausible to suggest neither of them were best 22.

Joey hadn't just signed a 3 year extension, we knew last year would be the end (well, some of us did). Cunningham, while not in his usual form, only went out due to injury. If you're predicting that for Lloyd and that he'll struggle to get back in, ok.

 

[caesar88]

The thing is I agree with you.
The thing is I also think we (the swans) need to get a bit ruthless in order to win this flag.

But I think my point is that being ruthless with Lloyd wouldn't help us win the flag. It'd be misdirected ruthlessness to drop arguably the key cog in our defensive system simply because there are shinier, newer toys.

If his form warrants it then it'd be worth considering, but we're talking about a player who has had very few form slumps in his 200 game career, so I wouldn't be holding my breath.

 

[Bloods86]

But I think my point is that being ruthless with Lloyd wouldn't help us win the flag. It'd be misdirected ruthlessness to drop arguably the key cog in our defensive system simply because there are shinier, newer toys.

If his form warrants it then it'd be worth considering, but we're talking about a player who has had very few form slumps in his 200 game career, so I wouldn't be holding my breath.

I thought his form warranted it (dropping) last year, though I gave him more time than most. Obviously the coaches didn't agree, and he got back into form.

That's pretty much my point. A lot of fans already have him out of the 22, but the coaches and players absolutely have him in there, and it appears they are pretty confident in him being there for a while yet.

 

[Kiama Chris]

There have been a number of posts (sorry for the lack of attribution) about how we were shot before the GF having to win every game to make the 4, playing our best team every week, Geelong resting players and so on. All true. And last Friday perhaps we saw that we're learning something.
1) Mills was rested. Maybe so we could see how the midfield functioned without him.
2) Buddy was the third target.
3) Roberts and Sheldrick got decent runs.
4) Harry was tried in a new slot.
5) McAndrew got a second run against senior rucks.
All of this points towards the possibility of resting/managing key players to freshen up for finals.
That would IMO be good management.

 

[Bloods86]

There have been a number of posts (sorry for the lack of attribution) about how we were shot before the GF having to win every game to make the 4, playing our best team every week, Geelong resting players and so on. All true. And last Friday perhaps we saw that we're learning something.
1) Mills was rested. Maybe so we could see how the midfield functioned without him.
2) Buddy was the third target.
3) Roberts and Sheldrick got decent runs.
4) Harry was tried in a new slot.
5) McAndrew got a second run against senior rucks.
All of this points towards the possibility of resting/managing key players to freshen up for finals.
That would IMO be good management.

Definitely going to need to manage some players later in the year. Extra round, can't guarantee only having 3 finals to contend with. Think we're just going to have to take the punt. But as also has been said, hopefully we're in better form in the first half of the year, don't drop games we should win, and then won't have to go all out to secure Top 4.

Btw, minor quibble, but not a new role for Harry. He's gotten regular games up forward, on the wing, down back throughout his career. Just his best role has been down back. Makes a lot of sense to use him wherever we have a need.

 

[Donza]

Definitely going to need to manage some players later in the year. Extra round, can't guarantee only having 3 finals to contend with. Think we're just going to have to take the punt. But as also has been said, hopefully we're in better form in the first half of the year, don't drop games we should win, and then won't have to go all out to secure Top 4.

Btw, minor quibble, but not a new role for Harry. He's gotten regular games up forward, on the wing, down back throughout his career. Just his best role has been down back. Makes a lot of sense to use him wherever we have a need.

I think they just played Harry out of position cause of no Papley or Clarke.
Plus they wanted to get a good body of work into Campbell.

Thats my thing about Lloyd.
I think Campbell will go past him.
I think Florent already is.
Then you also have Fox.
Blakey is now a lock.

I guess Lloyd is up against harry?