Analysis 2023 - Best 22

[Bloods86]

I think they just played Harry out of position cause of no Papley or Clarke.
Plus they wanted to get a good body of work into Campbell.

Thats my thing about Lloyd.
I think Campbell will go past him.
I think Florent already is.
Then you also have Fox.
Blakey is now a lock.

I guess Lloyd is up against harry?

I don't really think Lloyd is up against anyone. Harry is now up against Fox (when on smalls) and Florent.

Harry can do the half back, hard running role, but in seniors when down back, he's actually been a defender. A role Lloyd has never been given, something many seem to gloss over.

I still don't see it as Harry being out of position. He was a utility that became a small defender, now going back to being a utility (maybe).

 

[Bloods86]

I think they just played Harry out of position cause of no Papley or Clarke.
Plus they wanted to get a good body of work into Campbell.

Thats my thing about Lloyd.
I think Campbell will go past him.
I think Florent already is.
Then you also have Fox.
Blakey is now a lock.

I guess Lloyd is up against harry?

To clarify when I say Lloyd isn't up against anyone. Lloyd is not an actual defender, so comparisons to Fox or Cunningham or Florent when they're in that small defender role aren't valid. In terms of half backs, Blakey and Lloyd's roles are different, so don't see them competing for a spot.

Lloyd is a hard running, getting into free positions, link up half back. With a big tank. Composure is a strength, although last year wasn't his finest certainly.

Campbell has a better kick, don't see him with the tank or positioning yet.

Stephens or Florent (when he's not playing on someone) maybe. Stephens has the tank, Florent the experience.

People are discounting the disruptions Lloyd had early on last year, he worked back into form later on. Expect a better season.

 

[momentbymoment]

I agree.

The question I have is: would the greatest forward of the modern era be prepared to end his career in the VFL?

And would the Swans have the resolve to do so?

No
And probably not.

This may end up as our achilles heel this year.

 

[momentbymoment]

The four of them are different enough that it might work against some opponents. Not my personal preference but Reid is good defensively and Logan seems to be getting there.

Logan popping up and taking marks in defence seemed planned. Maybe he plays that Heeney roving game and Heeney plays further forward. Considering the goal tallies of both players last year, it makes sense to me.

 

[dosser]

Logan popping up and taking marks in defence seemed planned. Maybe he plays that Heeney roving game and Heeney plays further forward. Considering the goal tallies of both players last year, it makes sense to me.

I actually thought he played more of the role that Reid usually plays between the arcs. He was the release from the D50 and then went forward.

 

[momentbymoment]

I actually thought he played more of the role that Reid usually plays between the arcs. He was the release from the D50 and then went forward.

Yes that’s probably a better comparison.

 

[Donza]

Anyways i'm not going to die on the Lloyd hill.
However I see a future where he isn't selected.

 

[the hypnotoad]

I actually thought he played more of the role that Reid usually plays between the arcs. He was the release from the D50 and then went forward.

and mcdonald has the athleticism, skills and boot to do that ...
reid is a good field kick (except that part of the field where the goalposts are)

 

[Maximumlnsanity]

Anyways i'm not going to die on the Lloyd hill.
However I see a future where he isn't selected.

Probably not for a while. Horse loves him and he still has plenty of tickets from 2 B&Fs

 

[Bandicoot]

IMO.
Its entirely possible that the starting back six look like by mid year.
Mac and Mac.
Rampe
Blakey
Campbell
Florent
Gould/Francis/Cunningham

I'm not sure if lloyd fits into that.

Funny, but I have more faith in Lloyd than I do In Rampe.

 

[Kapers]

After Watson's comments on what players can go to another level, I just wanted to take a quick glance at this list and look at it from purely an AGE perspective.

I know we don't rate brownlows, but it's a good metric to see when a player hits their peak. The age of brownlow winners has been 27 (2022 Cripps), 27 (2021 Wines), 27 (2020 Neale), 28 (2019 Fyfe), 25 (2018 Mitchell), 26 (2017 Dusty), 26 (2016 Dangerfield), 24 (2015 Fyfe), 29 (2014 Matt Priddis), 29 (2013 Gary Abblet Jr), 22 30 27 (2012 Cotchin, Mitchell, Watson).

This gives an average of 26.69 and a standard deviation of 2 years, which means around 70% of brownlow medalists win this accolade at between 24.69 and 28.69. If you take out Cotchin and Mitchell it makes the numbers a lot nicer, because to be honest I don't think they really won it but that's just my opinion.

Therefore for the sake of my next post, I'm going to stick to a good estimate of an average player's peak being between 25-29. I'm going to split the post into 2 because this first part is pretty boring, but it's just incase any disagree's with how I got to the 25-29 range.

 

[Kapers]

WHICH PLAYERS HAVE MORE TO GIVE?

list of in best 28 under 25

Player	Age	Years off best (27)
Chad Warner	21	6
Hayden McLean	24	3
Dylan Stephens	22	5
Logan McDonald	20	7
James Rowbottom	22	5
Will Hayward	24	3
Oliver Florent	24	3
Sam Wicks	23	4
Braeden Campbell	21	6
Will Gould	22	5
Errol Gulden	20	7
Nick Blakey	23	4
Justin McInerney	22	5
Tom McCartin	23	4

The most sus one out of the above is Gould who hasn't debuted yet, but I'm going off the coaches comments that with some injuries he would come in, hence best 28.

This means that around half of our best 28 is still off their peak, which just by logic is a very good amount for a developing side that is turning into a competing side. Without checking we probably have a quarter at their peak, and a quarter leaving their peak.

WHY AM I EXCITED?

You could probably make a similar list for every club, so why should I be excited about it?

We played in a grand final. Yes we got trounced, but by most age and experience metrics we were early, but why do I say that?
10 of those players up there were in the grand final team. Our midfield was half made up of Warner and Rowbottom, both at least 4 years off their physical peak. Yet with many of our key blokes being up to decade younger than the opposition, we made it to a grand final.

If we can keep this group together for 4-5 years I can't see why we won't make repeated finals visits, if not repeated grand final appearances, and hopefully nab a few premierships.

I'm very vocal about the fact that we can't expect premierships, but I couldn't pick a club better placed for multiple premierships over the next 5 years than Sydney.

 

[WillHayward]

WHICH PLAYERS HAVE MORE TO GIVE?

list of in best 28 under 25

Player	Age	Years off best (27)
Chad Warner	21	6
Hayden McLean	24	3
Dylan Stephens	22	5
Logan McDonald	20	7
James Rowbottom	22	5
Will Hayward	24	3
Oliver Florent	24	3
Sam Wicks	23	4
Braeden Campbell	21	6
Will Gould	22	5
Errol Gulden	20	7
Nick Blakey	23	4
Justin McInerney	22	5
Tom McCartin	23	4

The most sus one out of the above is Gould who hasn't debuted yet, but I'm going off the coaches comments that with some injuries he would come in, hence best 28.

This means that around half of our best 28 is still off their peak, which just by logic is a very good amount for a developing side that is turning into a competing side. Without checking we probably have a quarter at their peak, and a quarter leaving their peak.

WHY AM I EXCITED?

You could probably make a similar list for every club, so why should I be excited about it?

We played in a grand final. Yes we got trounced, but by most age and experience metrics we were early, but why do I say that?
10 of those players up there were in the grand final team. Our midfield was half made up of Warner and Rowbottom, both at least 4 years off their physical peak. Yet with many of our key blokes being up to decade younger than the opposition, we made it to a grand final.

If we can keep this group together for 4-5 years I can't see why we won't make repeated finals visits, if not repeated grand final appearances, and hopefully nab a few premierships.

I'm very vocal about the fact that we can't expect premierships, but I couldn't pick a club better placed for multiple premierships over the next 5 years than Sydney.

Fair call.

Geelong had 6 so we have 4 up our sleeve.

BUT

We all know they just got 4 new kids.

They also have Shannon Neale who is probably similar to Logan.

 

[BloodySwan]

I give everyone under 25 a pass and then Tom Papley and Robbie Fox.

Everyone else can EAD.

Dick eaters (which is totally fine and a healthy hobby) as followers;

L Franklin
S Reid
L Parker
J Lloyd
I Heeney
P McCartin
D Rampe
T Hickey

If any of these 8 ask for a new contract I'd tell them yeah nahhhhhh.

I'm so confused by your post. No idea why you'd tell Heeney or Paddy they won't get a new contract.

Lloyd will only be 30 when his current contract runs out. Still a few years before he retires.

Then blokes like Reid or Parker. If they continue at their pace you give them a yr by yr contract

 

[Kapers]

I give everyone under 25 a pass and then Tom Papley and Robbie Fox.

Everyone else can EAD.

Dick eaters (which is totally fine and a healthy hobby) as followers;

L Franklin
S Reid
L Parker
J Lloyd
I Heeney
P McCartin
D Rampe
T Hickey

If any of these 8 ask for a new contract I'd tell them yeah nahhhhhh.

I'll be honest, I'm so glad your not our list manager.

Even missed out Mills....

 

[Wheresbuddy]

I give everyone under 25 a pass and then Tom Papley and Robbie Fox.

Everyone else can EAD.

Dick eaters (which is totally fine and a healthy hobby) as followers;

L Franklin
S Reid
L Parker
J Lloyd
I Heeney
P McCartin
D Rampe
T Hickey

If any of these 8 ask for a new contract I'd tell them yeah nahhhhhh.

Disagree with most of this. Agree only on Franklin and Hickey as definite no new contract. Reid is a maybe. At his best, he is invaluable to our structure and there is no clear successor.

The rest, especially Heeney and Paddy get new contracts.

If for nothing else, how do you replace a third of your best 22 and who with? Axing so many of your best 22 is the action of a team that's just won the spoon, not one that's made the GF.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Reid should not be forgiven for umpteen crimes. Lying about his fitness is just one of many. He just cannot be trusted to get fit, treat the pre season seriously, kick straight when it matters etc.

 

[WillHayward]

Disagree with most of this. Agree only on Franklin and Hickey as definite no new contract. Reid is a maybe. At his best, he is invaluable to our structure and there is no clear successor.

The rest, especially Heeney and Paddy get new contracts.

If for nothing else, how do you replace a third of your best 22 and who with? Axing so many of your best 22 is the action of a team that's just won the spoon, not one that's made the GF.

Heeney is already signed up until 2028.
So that's for his whole career anyway .

 

[caesar88]

I give everyone under 25 a pass and then Tom Papley and Robbie Fox.

Everyone else can EAD.

Dick eaters (which is totally fine and a healthy hobby) as followers;

L Franklin
S Reid
L Parker
J Lloyd
I Heeney
P McCartin
D Rampe
T Hickey

If any of these 8 ask for a new contract I'd tell them yeah nahhhhhh.

I can't say I'm a fan of the volatility laced throughout this post, even if it is in jest. Hoping it's just another of your rage posts. They are still our players and I'm glad they're ours.

That said, I do hope Horse put a rocket up the arse of those eight names after the way they finished last season. Not just the grand final debacle, but also the second half of the prelim, where they all did their best Amelia Earhart impersonations (save for one great mark each to Buddy and Hickey.)

For a senior core it just wasn't good enough.

 

[zyzzbruh]

Reid should not be forgiven for umpteen crimes. Lying about his fitness is just one of many. He just cannot be trusted to get fit, treat the pre season seriously, kick straight when it matters etc.

He's a shoe in 45 out on an acute angle.

 

[tombomb]

I give everyone under 25 a pass and then Tom Papley and Robbie Fox.

Everyone else can EAD.

Dick eaters (which is totally fine and a healthy hobby) as followers;

L Franklin
S Reid
L Parker
J Lloyd
I Heeney
P McCartin
D Rampe
T Hickey

If any of these 8 ask for a new contract I'd tell them yeah nahhhhhh.

'EAD', really?!

You should look into following someone else. You would love Richmond and their velcro memberships.

 

[WillHayward]

Disagree with most of this. Agree only on Franklin and Hickey as definite no new contract. Reid is a maybe. At his best, he is invaluable to our structure and there is no clear successor.

The rest, especially Heeney and Paddy get new contracts.

If for nothing else, how do you replace a third of your best 22 and who with? Axing so many of your best 22 is the action of a team that's just won the spoon, not one that's made the GF.

No need to replace anyone as they are contracted anyway.

Only ones OOC are Reid, Buddy and Hickey.

Reality remains some senior players on big bucks failed to fire a shot on GF day .

 

[Nuggetz]

Interested in Warner's performance with additional attention from the opposition. It might be less eye catching but have a greater impact on our team.

 

[BloodySwan]

Interested in Warner's performance with additional attention from the opposition. It might be less eye catching but have a greater impact on our team.

It wouldn't be surprising if he struggles to replicate his form but if he can keep some patches you know he's going to be among the best one day

 

[Dan87]

I can see Warner rotating forward a bit more. Especially if he's getting worked over