Analysis 2023 - Best 22

Bloods86

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 7, 2011
9,507
16,182
Adelaide
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Adelaide United, Everton, Socceroos
I think it is a good change to go straight to a five man bench. I think what makes it work is that the interchange cap will still apply, so if a team suffers and injury early, they still have four players who can rotate through without too much impact. The change also gets rid of teams rorting the injury sub, which was clearly happening at times this year.

I think the change could open up the opportunity to have one key ruck and a couple of second rucks. We could potentially keep them fresher and have more outlets down the wings.

The other option is having another out and out mid. Geelong did really well by keeping their mids fresh through games (giving them two resta per quarter). I think other clubs will be looking at how they could achieve similar outcomes.

I get the thinking of two first rucks but I’m not sure it is the best idea. In essence you only have one on the field at a time and and have rucks that are probably over rested. That, or you have first rucks resting up forward but not being entirely effective. I didn’t find Hickey or Ladhams very appealing as forwards this year, so I reckon we only want one or them at a time.
As I stated above, I reckon most clubs, including ours, will just use their existing "who is the sub" logic for that 5th bench spot. At most, I think maybe some clubs might include a 2nd ruck if they were going in with a ruck that was underdone, but most clubs will have a 2nd/relief ruck in the team already (we do).

I can see some more games as the 23rd man for Gould, future-HHK types who can play small or tall. But not generally.
 
A while ago I took a lot at the best and fairest count and compared the votes after round 18 to the votes at the final tally. If the string of 7 wins between rounds 19 and the prelim saved our season and got us to the GF, it's interesting to look at how the votes panned out in that run of 8 games.

From the votes that were made public, here's the number of votes the players got in that 8-game period:

Rowbottom (235)
Parker (210)
Mills (191)
Lloyd (187)
Warner (176)
Heeney (159)
Gulden (152)
Rampe (139)
T. McCartin (97)

(Florent's tally in that period is unknown, but he had to have received a minimum of 160 votes in that period, as his tally at round 18 was below 288 but he ended up with 447.)

Some takeaways I think...

- It's telling that our three inside, contested, two-way mids got the most votes in that time, showing how important that ability to pressure and win hard balls is to our game, and how much we missed it in the GF.

- Rowbottom is a freak. When he's playing well we either don't look like losing, or we do look like losing but he stops it from happening. He was elite in the last few months, arguably got us to a GF, and was one of the few who could hold his head high once we got there.

- Defence was clearly a priority for the coaches, with popular whipping boys Lloyd and Florent polling very well despite a lot of their good work going unnoticed by fans (Fox was never going to feature in top 10 calculations having missed 11 games, but I'd imagine he also polled really well during this period also.)

- On the other end of the spectrum, Tom McCartin polling a rather lowly 97 shows just how much those games where he had lapses defensively (such as against Larkey, against King, and in the GF) cost him, and us. (Not knocking him - his consistency of performance is the most obvious area of improvement he has in his game and that's no secret.)

- Blakey & Paddy were also nowhere to be seen in the top 10 at either stage. Which is surprising considering Blakey came in 6th in this board's POTY voting and Paddy in 8th. It suggests the coaches still see areas where their games need work, which is fair enough I guess as two newbies to the defending game.

- Buddy was also replaced by Florent and slipped out of the top 10 on the back of those 8 games, though how much by we don't know. Again, like McCartin, probably hurt by the games where he just failed to have any impact whatsoever, such as two out of the three finals.
 
Feb 28, 2007
51,375
66,870
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Could someone change the title of this thread to include a discussion on the 2023 game plan and list discussion?

Also I was wondering of the draftees we have brought in how do you think they will go in 2023?

Konstanty - Will debut in the first 6 rounds and I anticipate will play 5 to 10 games.

Vickery - Will probably debut at a mid point of the 2023 season. Think he will play around 2 or 3 games but still needs to develop. Will be better in his second year.

Mitchell - Really hard to tell with this one. If I had to guess I would say the same as Vickery but he does seem more physically ready than Vickery. I think he will play 3 games in 2023.

Edwards - Very hard to tell with this one. If one of the McCartin's go down he will be straight in. I like to think he will play in the games where the opposition have a really tall forward as we really struggle against those types of forward.

Owen - Won't play unless there is a ruckmens lunch he was not invited to and all the other ruckmen on our list get food poisoning. 2023 is very much a development year for him.

Magor - Big call here but I really like the look of Magor and think he will find a place in our team early and stay in the team for much of the season. I think he will play the most senior football of all our draftees this draft. I think he will play 15 games.
 

Kiama Chris

Norm Smith Medallist
May 10, 2016
7,502
16,906
Kiama
AFL Club
Sydney
Not sure whether that's an optimistic or pessimistic view. Horse has tended to give players a game or three as a taste of senior footy. Last year Sheldrick and Roberts, the year before all three ND kids, the year before that everyone too except Gould so I think there's a fair chance someone will get a run.
The big question is will anyone get more than that?
IMO the two talls Edwards and Owen won't get any time. Not developed enough. Need gym and VFL time plus plenty in front of them.
Physically Mitchell and Magor look the furthest advanced, though Konstanty looks pretty sharp. Vickery looks like Rankin, needs gym work before he sees seniors.
Of those three you'd think Konstanty would stand the best chance of getting a run, either through injury or as a test.
Mitchell and Magor have too many established players in front of them for anything more than a game or two.
 
Could someone change the title of this thread to include a discussion on the 2023 game plan and list discussion?

Also I was wondering of the draftees we have brought in how do you think they will go in 2023?

Konstanty - Will debut in the first 6 rounds and I anticipate will play 5 to 10 games.

Vickery - Will probably debut at a mid point of the 2023 season. Think he will play around 2 or 3 games but still needs to develop. Will be better in his second year.

Mitchell - Really hard to tell with this one. If I had to guess I would say the same as Vickery but he does seem more physically ready than Vickery. I think he will play 3 games in 2023.

Edwards - Very hard to tell with this one. If one of the McCartin's go down he will be straight in. I like to think he will play in the games where the opposition have a really tall forward as we really struggle against those types of forward.

Owen - Won't play unless there is a ruckmens lunch he was not invited to and all the other ruckmen on our list get food poisoning. 2023 is very much a development year for him.

Magor - Big call here but I really like the look of Magor and think he will find a place in our team early and stay in the team for much of the season. I think he will play the most senior football of all our draftees this draft. I think he will play 15 games.
No disrespect to them, but if they're getting the opportunities you think they're gonna get, then our team and our list isn't as good as we think it is.

Unless they're getting opportunities purely because of injuries to others.

In which case the season's ****ed anyway
 
Feb 28, 2007
51,375
66,870
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Not sure whether that's an optimistic or pessimistic view. Horse has tended to give players a game or three as a taste of senior footy. Last year Sheldrick and Roberts, the year before all three ND kids, the year before that everyone too except Gould so I think there's a fair chance someone will get a run.
The big question is will anyone get more than that?
IMO the two talls Edwards and Owen won't get any time. Not developed enough. Need gym and VFL time plus plenty in front of them.
Physically Mitchell and Magor look the furthest advanced, though Konstanty looks pretty sharp. Vickery looks like Rankin, needs gym work before he sees seniors.
Of those three you'd think Konstanty would stand the best chance of getting a run, either through injury or as a test.
Mitchell and Magor have too many established players in front of them for anything more than a game or two.

I think Edwards will get some games in 2023 as he is a mature ager so he is a year older than most draftees and historically KPD's do have the ability to reach the level needed to play in the AFL before ruckmen and forwards. Not saying Edwards will do that but the possibility is there and I don't think it will be a development issue.
 

Kiama Chris

Norm Smith Medallist
May 10, 2016
7,502
16,906
Kiama
AFL Club
Sydney
Konstanty could take Clarke's spot for rd 1

Sheldrick a midfield injury away etc
Depending on who is injured we could see some shuffling with Harry in and Florent moving up. Campbell for Juzzy, Dyl or Errol. Wicks or Sheldrick for Clarke or Papley. Talls another story. Maybe Campbell for Heeney or Hayward, or even Blakey going forward.
Can't see Sheldrick or Roberts playing big midfield minutes yet.
 

Dan87

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 7, 2008
5,726
9,677
Adelaide
AFL Club
Sydney
Depending on who is injured we could see some shuffling with Harry in and Florent moving up. Campbell for Juzzy, Dyl or Errol. Wicks or Sheldrick for Clarke or Papley. Talls another story. Maybe Campbell for Heeney or Hayward, or even Blakey going forward.
Can't see Sheldrick or Roberts playing big midfield minutes yet.

Harry up against it IMO

Maybe Rankin starts to get a look
 
I'd divide the list into four categories:

Could Murder Horse's Cat and They'd Still Be In the Team
Nick Blakey, Ollie Florent, Robbie Fox, Buddy Franklin, Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney, Jake Lloyd, Paddy McCartin, Tom McCartin, Callum Mills, Tom Papley, Luke Parker, Dane Rampe, James Rowbottom, Chad Warner

Would Have to Murder Horse's Cat to Not Be In the Team
Will Hayward, Tom Hickey, Justin McInerney

Could Get Acquitted of Murdering Horse's Cat Depending On Strength of the Prosecution's Case
Joel Amartey, Braeden Campbell, Ryan Clarke, Harry Cunningham, Aaron Francis, Will Gould, Jacob Konstanty, Peter Ladhams, Logan McDonald, Hayden McLean, Lewis Melican, Sam Reid, Angus Sheldrick, Dylan Stephens, Sam Wicks

Would Have to Revive Horse's Murdered Cat to Be In the Team
Will Edwards, Hugo Hall-Kahan, Jaiden Magor, Lachie McAndrew, Caleb Mitchell, Cameron Owen, Lachie Rankin, Matty Roberts, Marc Sheather, Cooper Vickery, Corey Warner
 
I'd divide the list into four categories:

Could Murder Horse's Cat and They'd Still Be In the Team
Nick Blakey, Ollie Florent, Robbie Fox, Buddy Franklin, Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney, Jake Lloyd, Paddy McCartin, Tom McCartin, Callum Mills, Tom Papley, Luke Parker, Dane Rampe, James Rowbottom, Chad Warner

Would Have to Murder Horse's Cat to Not Be In the Team
Will Hayward, Tom Hickey, Justin McInerney

Could Get Acquitted of Murdering Horse's Cat Depending On Strength of the Prosecution's Case
Joel Amartey, Braeden Campbell, Ryan Clarke, Harry Cunningham, Aaron Francis, Will Gould, Jacob Konstanty, Peter Ladhams, Logan McDonald, Hayden McLean, Lewis Melican, Sam Reid, Angus Sheldrick, Dylan Stephens, Sam Wicks

Would Have to Revive Horse's Murdered Cat to Be In the Team
Will Edwards, Hugo Hall-Kahan, Jaiden Magor, Lachie McAndrew, Caleb Mitchell, Cameron Owen, Lachie Rankin, Matty Roberts, Marc Sheather, Cooper Vickery, Corey Warner
Pretty good I'd reckon...

Tom Hickey is in the team unless not fit... He could absolutely murder the cat and still be in the team!

I'd also move Will Hayward up a category, he had an outstanding year in my view, improving right across the board. Very, very solid 2022... Will turned 24 in October 2022, so I'm expecting him to continue improving this year as well.

Probably have Fox in with that second/third group (of cat murders), I think he'll have to maintain to be a fixture. He'll be 30 in the first month of next season...

Justin only turned 22 in August, so I'm really looking for him to bulk a little more and be a big improver this year (which I am totally expecting).

So all in all, I'd move Will and Tom up a category, Justin down one, Fox down and get rid of that second category...

Got to love the development at the Swans, these guys are right on track!
 
I'd divide the list into four categories:

Could Murder Horse's Cat and They'd Still Be In the Team
Nick Blakey, Ollie Florent, Robbie Fox, Buddy Franklin, Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney, Jake Lloyd, Paddy McCartin, Tom McCartin, Callum Mills, Tom Papley, Luke Parker, Dane Rampe, James Rowbottom, Chad Warner

Would Have to Murder Horse's Cat to Not Be In the Team
Will Hayward, Tom Hickey, Justin McInerney

Could Get Acquitted of Murdering Horse's Cat Depending On Strength of the Prosecution's Case
Joel Amartey, Braeden Campbell, Ryan Clarke, Harry Cunningham, Aaron Francis, Will Gould, Jacob Konstanty, Peter Ladhams, Logan McDonald, Hayden McLean, Lewis Melican, Sam Reid, Angus Sheldrick, Dylan Stephens, Sam Wicks

Would Have to Revive Horse's Murdered Cat to Be In the Team
Will Edwards, Hugo Hall-Kahan, Jaiden Magor, Lachie McAndrew, Caleb Mitchell, Cameron Owen, Lachie Rankin, Matty Roberts, Marc Sheather, Cooper Vickery, Corey Warner

Snorfle … took a while to stop spluttering my coffee and to stop the bwahahas.

I like the four tiers.

Pleased Foxy is in your top tier but unhappily history suggests that is not the case for Horse.

Just on those yet to debut and the recruits my highest hope for 2023 is Hugo. A big off season will add muscle and ability to run out games. HHK has the intangible quality of footy smarts, vision and uses the ball beautifully.
 

Callipygian

Team Player
May 18, 2021
1,581
3,398
AFL Club
Sydney
I think players with realistic possibilities of debut this year, roughly in order:

HHK
Konstanty
Magor
Rankin
Mitchell

I'm not expecting more than 3 debuts, and only the first three have a chance of getting more than a taste in my opinion. Most likely none will get more than a taste (say >3 games).
 
Last edited:

Bloods86

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 7, 2011
9,507
16,182
Adelaide
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Adelaide United, Everton, Socceroos
I think players with realistic possibilities of debut this year, roughly in order:

HHK
Konstanty
Magor
Rankin
Mitchell
Vickery

I'm not expecting more than 3 debuts, and only the first three have a chance of getting more than a taste in my opinion. Most likely none will get more than a taste (say >3 games).
Reckon you're right about only a few debuts. We only had 2 last year I think, for a combined 3 games.

For me it's:

Gould (simply has to debut at some point, otherwise he's gone)
Konstanty
Sheather (if he's fit I reckon he could pick up where he left off and should earn a debut)

Less likely:

Magor
One of Warner/Mitchell (reckon would need a few injuries on the wing)

Not expecting any debut from the others. Even Rankin, unless we copped an injury to Florent, and Campbell/Cunningham were out of form.
 

Callipygian

Team Player
May 18, 2021
1,581
3,398
AFL Club
Sydney
I really didn't give much thought to the players already on our list, did I!

Agree Gould needs to debut if we are to retain him.

Sheather a real chance. He's almost but not quite 100% again I think.

Corey is also at least as likely to debut as any of the new draftees or Rankin or HHK.

I don't think Vickery will debut, mostly because he's so young. The same concern applies for Konstanty but he seems a little more hard bodied and there's a clearer role for him to play.
 
For those thinking Fox will not be in the team round 1, he was our BOG in the grand final by the length of the Nullabor, and the only performer when the whips were cracking. Horse will not forget that. How long he holds his spot is another matter, but the spot will be his.
 
Pretty good I'd reckon...

Tom Hickey is in the team unless not fit... He could absolutely murder the cat and still be in the team!

I'd also move Will Hayward up a category, he had an outstanding year in my view, improving right across the board. Very, very solid 2022... Will turned 24 in October 2022, so I'm expecting him to continue improving this year as well.

Probably have Fox in with that second/third group (of cat murders), I think he'll have to maintain to be a fixture. He'll be 30 in the first month of next season...

Justin only turned 22 in August, so I'm really looking for him to bulk a little more and be a big improver this year (which I am totally expecting).

So all in all, I'd move Will and Tom up a category, Justin down one, Fox down and get rid of that second category...

Got to love the development at the Swans, these guys are right on track!
The difference between the top two categories is that the first group could bomb completely over the pre-season and Horse would still pick them. The second group only need to do anything except bomb, and Horse will pick them.

If Hickey bombs, he'll get replaced by Ladhams (this could still happen anyway if Ladhams plays out of his skin and demands selection.)

If Hayward bombs, Horse has already shown he's willing to drop Hayward on form.

And if McInerney bombs, I'm not sure he earnt enough good faith this season to carry over into next year.

It's not often a player bombs in a pre-season, so I'm backing all three in to build and be in the team next year (particularly McInerney, who I maintain is a special player.) But I think they need to impress more than that top group.
 

Bloods86

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 7, 2011
9,507
16,182
Adelaide
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Adelaide United, Everton, Socceroos
For those thinking Fox will not be in the team round 1, he was our BOG in the grand final by the length of the Nullabor, and the only performer when the whips were cracking. Horse will not forget that. How long he holds his spot is another matter, but the spot will be his.
Fox should now be given the same favour that some others receive, where they can be out of form for a month or more, and hold their spot.

Personally, I'd be more ruthless across the board, but if others get the favour, so should Fox. I don't think there's much danger, his floor is alright.
 

Kiama Chris

Norm Smith Medallist
May 10, 2016
7,502
16,906
Kiama
AFL Club
Sydney
I really didn't give much thought to the players already on our list, did I!

Agree Gould needs to debut if we are to retain him.

Sheather a real chance. He's almost but not quite 100% again I think.

Corey is also at least as likely to debut as any of the new draftees or Rankin or HHK.

I don't think Vickery will debut, mostly because he's so young. The same concern applies for Konstanty but he seems a little more hard bodied and there's a clearer role for him to play.
I think the problem for Gould now isn't whether he's good enough - he pretty clearly is - it's the balance and roles in the back 7. Stephens got his chance when Harry was injured and Ollie was moved back. It's a bit similar I think for Will. He has been developing well as a lockdown KPD but we've been playing with only one of those - Tom. We would need to change our tactics a bit. So whose place would he take?
 
Oct 18, 2018
4,461
10,319
AFL Club
Sydney
It was funny watching the reaction of many posters on here immediately after the draft. Lots were underwhelmed by our draft haul. We did not get any of the big phantom draft names so many were unimpressed.
I liken it to popular songs. They play them to death on the radio and you soon get sick of them because they are really not that good. It is those other less played songs that become your lifelong favorites. You listen to them and they have great lyrics or riffs but something captures you.

I like the look of the list now. Sure there are some deficiencies around KPF and ruck, but we have a good set of draft picks next year to fix that. What I really like is that there is very few players that are not either
a) Pressing for selection, or
b) Youth with potential

The retired and delisted players were largely aging, or not best 22 or retiring. They are gone now. The list is very much refreshed.

Lots on here posting about who will debut next year. The underwhelmed are now full of hope!!
 

Maximumlnsanity

All Australian
Nov 10, 2020
761
1,399
Hobart
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Minnesota Timberwolves
So last season's best 22 is well established right:

FB: Fox, McCartin, Rampe

HB: Lloyd, McCartin, Blakey

C: McInerney, Parker, Stephens

HF: Heeney, Reid, Hayward

FF: Clarke, Buddy, Papley

Fol: Hickey, Parker, Mills

Int: Rowbottom, Florent, Gulden, McDonald

I see 3 names that could lose their spot by round 1 this season. Reid, Hickey, and Clarke. That's where all the intrigue should lie. Reid either loses out to McLean, a small forward, or another midfielder. His spot in the team is the one that can be free formed to fit whatever forwardline we want to run. Of course if there's a small forward to replace Reid you'd imagine Clamps is safe but if not then he's got to fight off Wicks, Konstanty, HHK, Sheather, Magor, and maybe even Gus. Last but not least, Ruck Jesus. He only has one name on his tail but unfortunately for him it's his successor in Ladhams. This is a losing battle, father time is undefeated and Jesus didn't look as dominant last season. I've personally already got Ladhams penciled in as our #1 ruck but that's definitely not guaranteed
 

Kiama Chris

Norm Smith Medallist
May 10, 2016
7,502
16,906
Kiama
AFL Club
Sydney
So last season's best 22 is well established right:

FB: Fox, McCartin, Rampe

HB: Lloyd, McCartin, Blakey

C: McInerney, Parker, Stephens

HF: Heeney, Reid, Hayward

FF: Clarke, Buddy, Papley

Fol: Hickey, Parker, Mills

Int: Rowbottom, Florent, Gulden, McDonald

I see 3 names that could lose their spot by round 1 this season. Reid, Hickey, and Clarke. That's where all the intrigue should lie. Reid either loses out to McLean, a small forward, or another midfielder. His spot in the team is the one that can be free formed to fit whatever forwardline we want to run. Of course if there's a small forward to replace Reid you'd imagine Clamps is safe but if not then he's got to fight off Wicks, Konstanty, HHK, Sheather, Magor, and maybe even Gus. Last but not least, Ruck Jesus. He only has one name on his tail but unfortunately for him it's his successor in Ladhams. This is a losing battle, father time is undefeated and Jesus didn't look as dominant last season. I've personally already got Ladhams penciled in as our #1 ruck but that's definitely not guaranteed
Totally agree with the established best 22 that got us to the GF.
I think Ladhams has a bit to prove before he gets selected in front of Hickey, principally around his starts to games and his temperament. I'm not convinced he has the full trust of the leadership group yet. Fitness could play a part of course.
We could decide to play a taller backline by bringing in Gould or Francis which would put Fox or Florent under pressure. Given his performance in the GF and PF it's hard to imagine dropping Fox so perhaps Florent is dropped or moves forward which places Stephens, McInerney or Gulden under pressure.
Clarke also had a good run to the GF but is probably easiest to drop, but for who? And why?
Reid you're right. If he's 100% fit, he plays. If not, almost certainly McLean takes the spot, even though Amartey is the better ruck.
Hard to force your way into a GF team.
Interesting times.
 
Back