Analysis 2023 Bloods' Performance Discussion

[GoTheSwannies]

If we look at our list compared to 2022. We've lost two important players in Sam Reid

20

Sam Reid

Age

32

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

0.0

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.4

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.4

3star

and P.Mac.
Buddy & Hickey are on their last legs.
Heeney, Papley, Hayward, the Chad and Cunningham are all having subpar seasons so far. Rowbottom, Florent and Clarke have been fairly average as well. And Francis is purely a serviceable fringe player.
Mills, McDonald, Armatey, Rampe, T.Mac & ladhams have all been on the injury list and will have question marks on them upon return.
Lloyd & Parker have arguably maintained their form.
The only players who have performed as well or better than 2022 would be Gulden, Fox, Campbell, McClean & Blakey (+Armatey pre injury). McInerney is working into some solid form and has some upside this year.

There are quite a few unknowns for the remainder of the year, and no great upshot. Our best chance this year is for each individual to lift their own games and the weight of numbers will hopefully contribute to overall improvement in the teams performance.

We also need our seniors and star players to pull out some special performances if we're to be anything more than a 7-12 side.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

I watched the 2014 GF highlights the other day. Silly I know, but enough time has passed.

One thing that stood out to me was that Hawthorn were intent on hurting us that day. Hanners got smashed in 2 huge tackles in the first quarter (the second which really hurt him). And there were 3 or 4 marking contests where Buddy's opponent dove right into his back with the intent of smashing him into the ground (and dare I say, attempt to injure him or at least cork him in some way to try and minimise his impact for the rest of the game).

There's no doubt that clarko listed key targets and asked his team to get them hard whenever they had a chance.

I know it's not rocket science, but it made it clear that our opposition (in both 2014 & 2022) came out and played an aggressive, physical and relentless style and on both occasions we were shell-shocked and got pummelled.

Watching the 2022 GF would probably be counter productive, but if I were horse, I'd have the team watch the 2014 GF and show them the difference between the two sides. I'd select a few matches during the season where I'd ask the team to go in and play with the mindset of hurting the opposition.

We've tried it unsuccessfully, by trying to target Daicos, but it was a half-hearted and misdirected attempt that failed, and made us look foolish.

To me, it suggests that we really don't have the mongrel needed to become a feared side. Outside of a few players, we're a pretty soft side and until we overcome that, I don't think we'll be able to win a flag.

Hence why I think it's time horse asked the team to go in hard and develop some mongrel. And I'm not suggesting everyone needs to do it (it's obviously not in everyone's nature) but if everyone lifts their aggression a couple %, and the real hard nuts go all out, and more importantly, each player backs each other up when a scuffle ensues, that would get us on the right track.

Swans have been too nice for too long, and 3 GF losses in a row are symptomatic that something needs to change. We need to get our players used to playing more aggressively.

Final thing I'd say is that Luc Longley talked about how Michael Jordan would challenge him to be tougher. Playing as a centre, his role involved playing the enforcer, which went against Longleys nature. However, over time he managed to develop more aggression in his game, and essentially not be so soft. That's what our team needs.

 

[Bloods86]

I watched the 2014 GF highlights the other day. Silly I know, but enough time has passed.

One thing that stood out to me was that Hawthorn were intent on hurting us that day. Hanners got smashed in 2 huge tackles in the first quarter (the second which really hurt him). And there were 3 or 4 marking contests where his opponent dove right into his back with the intent of smashing him into the ground (and dare I say, attempt to injure him or at least cork him in some way to try and minimise his impact for the rest of the game).

There's no doubt that clarko listed key targets and asked his team to get them hard whenever they had a chance.

I know it's not rocket science, but it made it clear that our opposition (in both 2014 & 2022) came out and played an aggressive, physical and relentless style and on both occasions we were shell-shocked and got pummelled.

Watching the 2022 GF would probably be counter productive, but if I were horse, I'd have the team watch the 2014 GF and show them the difference between the two sides. I'd select a few matches during the season where I'd ask the team to go in and play with the mindset of hurting the opposition.

We've tried it unsuccessfully, by trying to target Daicos, but it was a half-hearted and misdirected attempt that failed, and made us look foolish.

To me, it suggests that we really don't have the mongrel needed to become a feared side. Outside of a few players, we're a pretty soft side and until we overcome that, I don't think we'll be able to win a flag.

Hence why I think it's time horse asked the team to go in hard and develop some mongrel. And I'm not suggesting everyone needs to do it (it's obviously not in everyone's nature) but if everyone lifts their aggression a couple %, and the real hard nuts go all out, and more importantly, each player backs each other up when a scuffle ensues, that would get us on the right track.

Swans have been too nice for too long, and 3 GF losses in a row are symptomatic that something needs to change. We need to get our players used to playing more aggressively.

Final thing I'd say is that Luc Longley talked about how Michael Jordan would challenge him to be tougher. Playing as a centre, his role involved playing the enforcer, which went against Longleys nature. However, over time he managed to develop more aggression in his game, and essentially not be so soft. That's what our team needs.

Probably revenge for us keeping Hodge on the bench so much in 2012, kept reopening the cut on his head.

 

[Millky95]

Probably revenge for us keeping Hodge on the bench so much in 2012, kept reopening the cut on his head.

That and Buddy being unable to kick straight probably won us the game

 

[GoTheSwannies]

If Buddy kicked straight that day we would have been cooked!

 

[WillHayward]

Some interesting team stats that may tell a story?

• Inside 50s we are ranked 8th
• Marks Inside 50 we are ranked 17th

I think Horse has the belief that if you bomb it in fast and long you get a stoppage in a fwd pocket and then you can try and lock it in and get a goal from stoppages.

Adelaide get less I50s than us but manage 3 more I50 marks per week.

Our leading i50 marker this season is Papley (34th). Pretty good for a small fwd who isnt a main target.

Walker, Fogarty and Rankine all have more I50 marks than Papley.

Heeney is ranked 69th for I50 marks with a whole heap of midfielders who dont even play fwd ahead of him.

This is a big concern imo. Especially when you consider his pay packet.

Blokes with more i50 marks than Heeney this season include:

• Fergus Greene
• Tyler Brockman
• Kade Chandler
• Jaidyn Stephenson
• Matt Owies

I think people will find this list a bit of eye opener. For example Hogan and JUH are both top 10. Even Jake Riccardi has more than any Swan.

2023 AFL League Total Marks Inside 50 Leaders

2023 AFL League Total Marks Inside 50 Leaders.

www.footywire.com

 

[Nuggetz]

Some interesting team stats that may tell a story?

• Inside 50s we are ranked 8th
• Marks Inside 50 we are ranked 17th

I think Horse has the belief that if you bomb it in fast and long you get a stoppage in a fwd pocket and then you can try and lock it in and get a goal from stoppages.

Adelaide get less I50s than us but manage 3 more I50 marks per week.

Our leading i50 marker this season is Papley (34th). Pretty good for a small fwd who isnt a main target.

Walker, Fogarty and Rankine all have more I50 marks than Papley.

Heeney is ranked 69th for I50 marks with a whole heap of midfielders who dont even play fwd ahead of him.

This is a big concern imo. Especially when you consider his pay packet.

Blokes with more i50 marks than Heeney this season include:

• Fergus Greene
• Tyler Brockman
• Kade Chandler
• Jaidyn Stephenson
• Matt Owies

Shows the lack of cohesion within our forwards. The leading patters are poor, communication is poor & synergy is simply missing. This combined with our largely average pressure within the forward half has led to our forwards being poor imo. Mid table forward line performance atm.

Port are a good comparison, quite a few stats where both teams are similar but a couple of metrics stands out. Port compared to us are winning more clearances resulting in more I50s & their tackles I50 is much higher. To be fair, we're the worst hitout team in the comp so the mids aren't doing too bad considering our rucks don't get first touch on the ball. This is an area that will only be addressed through improved development from Ladhams or recruiting a genuine ruck in the off-season.

The tackles I50 is something we can control & it's something that can be changed relatively quickly. Our forwards simply need to put more pressure on the opposition when the ball gets into our forward half. I thought we were good v Lions in this area & it's something we need to focus on for the remainder of the season. I know the coaching staff like 3 genuine talls in the forward line but maybe it's something that needs to change considering the poor functionality of our forward line for a considerable part of the season.

 

[WillHayward]

I have now formed a pretty firm belief that we need to forget Heeney as the glamour fwd and play him full time midfielder.

If he only wants to play fwd then we should let him go. 20 goals a season average just isnt enough for a high paid glamour fwd. Its not bang for buck.

So either f/t mid or let him go imo.

For the sake of a comparison - Fritsch now has 200 goals from 6 seasons at over 30 goals per season.

And im sure Fritsch aint on Heeney money.

 

[Dubsforsam1]

I have now formed a pretty firm belief that we need to forget Heeney as the glamour fwd and play him full time midfielder.

If he only wants to play fwd then we should let him go. 20 goals a season average just isnt enough for a high paid glamour fwd. Its not bang for buck.

So either f/t mid or let him go imo.

For the sake of a comparison - Fritsch now has 200 goals from 6 seasons at over 30 goals per season.

And im sure Fritsch aint on Heeney money.

Last season Heeney scored 49 goals when played purely as a forward.

 

[Dubsforsam1]

Some interesting team stats that may tell a story?

• Inside 50s we are ranked 8th
• Marks Inside 50 we are ranked 17th

I think Horse has the belief that if you bomb it in fast and long you get a stoppage in a fwd pocket and then you can try and lock it in and get a goal from stoppages.

Adelaide get less I50s than us but manage 3 more I50 marks per week.

Our leading i50 marker this season is Papley (34th). Pretty good for a small fwd who isnt a main target.

Walker, Fogarty and Rankine all have more I50 marks than Papley.

Heeney is ranked 69th for I50 marks with a whole heap of midfielders who dont even play fwd ahead of him.

This is a big concern imo. Especially when you consider his pay packet.

Blokes with more i50 marks than Heeney this season include:

• Fergus Greene
• Tyler Brockman
• Kade Chandler
• Jaidyn Stephenson
• Matt Owies

I think people will find this list a bit of eye opener. For example Hogan and JUH are both top 10. Even Jake Riccardi has more than any Swan.

2023 AFL League Total Marks Inside 50 Leaders

2023 AFL League Total Marks Inside 50 Leaders.

www.footywire.com

Last year Franklin/Heeney were comfortably our best markers of the ball I50 and also delivered the ball I50 the most.
However Reid/McDonald also won their fair share of marks and delivered I50 and that has been missed (plus the pressure they were able to apply was significantly higher than McLean/Amartey are able to apply).

 

[WillHayward]

Last season Heeney scored 49 goals when played purely as a forward.

I am fully aware of that however his career average is 22 a season.

Sorry but paying Heeney big bucks as a glamour fwd is not value for money and impacts our overall salary cap structure. I understand Heeney gets paid above his on-field worth because he is considered a marketing tool for NSW players and brand in NSW. This is just a practical reality.

Fritsch has had two seasons kicking > 50 goals and is on track for this 3rd. Heeney has never kicked > 50.

Papley averages 30 goals a season. 30% higher than Heeney.

Id like to try Heeney full time mid and maybe stop thinking hes gonna kick 50 goals. He aint.

 

[Punts]

I am fully aware of that however his career average is 22 a season.

Sorry but paying Heeney big bucks as a glamour fwd is not value for money and impacts our overall salary cap structure.

Fritsch has had two seasons kicking > 50 goals and is on track for this 3rd. Heeney has never kicked > 50.

Papley averages 30 goals a season. 30% higher than Heeney.

Fritch probably on half the coin to

 

[WillHayward]

Last year Franklin/Heeney were comfortably our best markers of the ball I50 and also delivered the ball I50 the most.
However Reid/McDonald also won their fair share of marks and delivered I50 and that has been missed (plus the pressure they were able to apply was significantly higher than McLean/Amartey are able to apply).

I think this is my point?

Huge drop-off in this stat this season which partially explains our overall drop off.

And no obvious solution in sight besides getting Logan to dominate next season.

 

[caesar88]

Broken record at this point but our half forward work is probably the worst in the competition. Everything falls apart in that 20m stretch between the centre square and about 40m out from goals.

And so many are to blame for it.

The mids - their inability to win clean clearances out the FRONT of stoppages mean so many of our clearances actually go backwards. We're then losing territory on the kick inwards, meaning they fall short at HF and are easily cut off by defenders, rather than getting deep entries into our forward 50.

The talls - their inability to take marks from said clearances means we can never stop and set up ahead of the ball. It just becomes a mad scramble to try and win the ball back at ground level, which puts us under more pressure and leads to the kind of haphazard forward entries that don't lead to marks.

The small/medium forwards - their inability to simply do the basics, like tackle, pressure, win ground balls, hit targets etc. is so poor and they waste opportunity after opportunity doing this. Their numbers are all so comparatively low to what they're capable of because they cost themselves chances to win the ball or create scoring shots with their poor/sloppy efforts.

If even one of these groups performs better, it makes the others look better by default. But because they all suck, it creates this knock-on effect of suckiness.

 

[Jewelsbon]

Some interesting team stats that may tell a story?

• Inside 50s we are ranked 8th
• Marks Inside 50 we are ranked 17th

I think Horse has the belief that if you bomb it in fast and long you get a stoppage in a fwd pocket and then you can try and lock it in and get a goal from stoppages.

Adelaide get less I50s than us but manage 3 more I50 marks per week.

Our leading i50 marker this season is Papley (34th). Pretty good for a small fwd who isnt a main target.

Walker, Fogarty and Rankine all have more I50 marks than Papley.

Heeney is ranked 69th for I50 marks with a whole heap of midfielders who dont even play fwd ahead of him.

This is a big concern imo. Especially when you consider his pay packet.

Blokes with more i50 marks than Heeney this season include:

• Fergus Greene
• Tyler Brockman
• Kade Chandler
• Jaidyn Stephenson
• Matt Owies

I think people will find this list a bit of eye opener. For example Hogan and JUH are both top 10. Even Jake Riccardi has more than any Swan.

2023 AFL League Total Marks Inside 50 Leaders

2023 AFL League Total Marks Inside 50 Leaders.

www.footywire.com

Reid missing all this season would go a fair way to explain that, love him or hate him, he's a great marker if the ball.

 

[WillHayward]

Reid missing all this season would go a fair way to explain that, love him or hate him, he's a great marker if the ball.

43rd in the comp last season which is pretty good.

Still behind Paps.

So would help but not by much. Also citing Reid doesnt solve the overall list problem. The problem is still there with our without Reid and Reid probably wont be back. So problem remains regardless.

 

[Jewelsbon]

43rd in the comp last season which is pretty good.

Still behind Paps.

So would help but not by much. Also citing Reid doesnt solve the overall list problem. The problem is still there with our without Reid and Reid probably wont be back. So problem remains regardless.

Yeah agreed, just thought it might go a way to explain the drop off.

 

[WillHayward]

Is the logic that we pay Heeney as a star fwd so let's play him there?

Maybe just play in him as a mid and accept that he gets paid more because he's a brand ambassador in NSW?

Same as Mills. Just play him down back.

We are all pretending there two are better than they are because of the $$.

 

[Jewelsbon]

Is the logic that we pay Heeney as a star fwd so let's play him there?

Maybe just play in him as a mid and accept that he gets paid more because he's a brand ambassador in NSW?

Same as Mills. Just play him down back.

We are all pretending there two are better than they are because of the $$.

I've no issue with Mills this year, he's been needed all over the field. I think he's worth whatever we are paying him.
I get the grumbling over Heeney though, he's been very ordinary all season.

 

[Nuggetz]

The nerd in me loves this type of analysis, hopefully in a months time we can talk about the improvements in our game

 

[Dubsforsam1]

43rd in the comp last season which is pretty good.

Still behind Paps.

So would help but not by much. Also citing Reid doesnt solve the overall list problem. The problem is still there with our without Reid and Reid probably wont be back. So problem remains regardless.

I think it's an accumulation of many things.

1 - Loss of McCartin x2 and Rampe (for large parts of the season) means we are losing out on the ability to intercept mark and counter attack before the defense is set. It also means we lost the ability of Blakey to counter attack and break the lines to disrupt the defensive system. It also means our midfield has to be more defensive minded.

2 - The loss of Reid and McDonald has cost us our best marking options for kicks down the line which enabled us to break out from defence (we now are dragging Hayward and Mclean down to replace this). Reid especially also had a great ability to bring the ball to deck and compete on the ground (which led to dump clearance kicks which led to repeat I50's rather than intercept marks and easy clearances this year). It also means can concentrate on marking Franklin/Heeney more closely I50.

3 - Teams are managing to stop Warner breaking the lines which reduces our ability to get clean I50's.

That's before we get to Franklin/Heeney not being as good as last year.

 

[WillHayward]

I think it's an accumulation of many things.

1 - Loss of McCartin x2 and Rampe (for large parts of the season) means we are losing out on the ability to intercept mark and counter attack before the defense is set. It also means we lost the ability of Blakey to counter attack and break the lines to disrupt the defensive system. It also means our midfield has to be more defensive minded.

2 - The loss of Reid and McDonald has cost us our best marking options for kicks down the line which enabled us to break out from defence (we now are dragging Hayward and Mclean down to replace this). Reid especially also had a great ability to bring the ball to deck and compete on the ground (which led to dump clearance kicks which led to repeat I50's rather than intercept marks and easy clearances this year). It also means can concentrate on marking Franklin/Heeney more closely I50.

3 - Teams are managing to stop Warner breaking the lines which reduces our ability to get clean I50's.

That's before we get to Franklin/Heeney not being as good as last year.

We are still 8th for i50 and 17th for I50 marks so something is going wrong with that final kick inside 50. Either the kick is rushed and hurried and a dump kick and/or our medium and tall fwds are no good.

 

[Dubsforsam1]

We are still 8th for i50 and 17th for I50 marks so something is going wrong with that final kick inside 50. Either the kick is rushed and hurried and a dump kick and/or our medium and tall fwds are no good.

I think a lot has to do is that we are not generating the easy I50's where there is space and time to deliver the ball. Teams are getting that extra time to man up, get numbers back and block space. It was like last year when we would concede a lot of I50's but not many marks (in most games).

 

[Callipygian]

I am one of those Pollyanna types, at least compared to the likes of https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/members/punts.137750/or WillHayward. I think that most (not all) of our problems this year stem from our injuries which have regrettably targetted our best and most important players. That, combined with our youth and lack of depth, has made for a perfect storm and massively impacted our performances.

When you look at our team last week, our 3 first choice tall forwards (Buddy, Reid, McDonald) were all out. Two of our first choice KPDs (Tom and Paddy McCartin) were out. Our captain, best midfielder and reigning B&F (Mills), also out. Our other captain and next best midfielder (Parker) was also out due to suspension. In addition we were missing Ladhams, who would be best 22 and some would say #1 ruck. That is basically every first choice tall player on the team as well as our two best midfielders.

At other times this year we have been missing Hickey and Rampe too (our third captain) and other more fringe players (Roberts, Amartey, McLean, Wicks etc).

The only other team who has had to deal with that level of injury carnage this year is doing even worse than us (the Eagles).

I know some people say everyone has injuries, it's just excuses, you have to deal with it, get another soldier in etc. But I think that is BS. The level of injuries we are dealing with makes a massive difference. You don't have to look far to find some evidence to back this up. Just look at us last year. We had a dream run with injuries and we astonishingly made the grand final when many pundits didn't think we would make the 8 before the season started. Even we were surprised.

Added to that, I don't think we have the depth or experience of some other teams. Partly that's because we have rebuilt, and partly it's because I think it is harder for us to retain decent players when they are not playing AFL footy than for teams in Melbourne and probably also Adelaide and Perth (at least for their local talent). When players aren't best 22 the go home factor stings harder and it hurts clubs which don't have the same base of local players to call on. (Same issue hurts us with the top ups in the VFL IMO.)

I am definitely disappointed in our season. But I don't see why we can't bounce back next year. At least we are getting more games in to the next rung of players and that will improve our depth in future. If we manage to bring in some good players via trade and draft and have a reasonable run with injuries, we'll be right amongst it.

 

[Big Blood]

Some interesting team stats that may tell a story?

• Inside 50s we are ranked 8th
• Marks Inside 50 we are ranked 17th

I think Horse has the belief that if you bomb it in fast and long you get a stoppage in a fwd pocket and then you can try and lock it in and get a goal from stoppages.

Adelaide get less I50s than us but manage 3 more I50 marks per week.

Our leading i50 marker this season is Papley (34th). Pretty good for a small fwd who isnt a main target.

Walker, Fogarty and Rankine all have more I50 marks than Papley.

Heeney is ranked 69th for I50 marks with a whole heap of midfielders who dont even play fwd ahead of him.

This is a big concern imo. Especially when you consider his pay packet.

Blokes with more i50 marks than Heeney this season include:

• Fergus Greene
• Tyler Brockman
• Kade Chandler
• Jaidyn Stephenson
• Matt Owies

I think people will find this list a bit of eye opener. For example Hogan and JUH are both top 10. Even Jake Riccardi has more than any Swan.

2023 AFL League Total Marks Inside 50 Leaders

2023 AFL League Total Marks Inside 50 Leaders.

www.footywire.com

None of those numbers surprise me. We've played a lot of mediocre footy this year. The mystery is the dropoff over last year. Injuries we can blame for a certain proportion but the number of games we've given up in the last quarter (or against the Lions in the 2nd-3rd quarters) is obviously not from injury. Is it Fitness? Players playing injured? No heart? Not playing for the coach? A mystery wrapped in an enigma shrouded by a who freaking knows.