AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls

[balmainforever]

ANY BETS POSTED AFTER THE COUNT IS FINISHED WITHOUT PRIOR POSTING WHETHER WINNING OR LOSING WILL GET AN AUTOMATIC RED CARD

 

[tombomb]

Is there a definitive answer on whether or not the umpires look at stats before giving votes?

Daicos is one of the biggest stat padders I've seen.

 

[5 Bucks]

Is there a definitive answer on whether or not the umpires look at stats before giving votes?

Daicos is one of the biggest stat padders I've seen.

They have access to them if they want to. Plus I'm sure they notice things that are put up on the scoreboards during the matches.

Umps have historically rated contested possessions and Daicos with his kick ins to inflate his numbers, and multitude of handball receives in the back half doesn't bode well for his chances. However, at some point weight of numbers has to count, his kicking is often so damaging when he takes on difficult kicks that open up the match and when he's kicking match winning goals on top of that he's going to be impossible to ignore.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

They have access to them if they want to. Plus I'm sure they notice things that are put up on the scoreboards during the matches.

Umps have historically rated contested possessions and Daicos with his kick ins to inflate his numbers, and multitude of handball receives in the back half doesn't bode well for his chances. However, at some point weight of numbers has to count, his kicking is often so damaging when he takes on difficult kicks that open up the match and when he's kicking match winning goals on top of that he's going to be impossible to ignore.

Agree. Also, Tom Mitchell is the king of stat padding, or at least he was when he won his Brownlow. So, there's a precedence set.

 

[tombomb]

Agree. Also, Tom Mitchell is the king of stat padding, or at least he was when he won his Brownlow. So, there's a precedence set.

At least he was winning his share of contested ball. He was ranked 2nd that year.

Daicos is currently ranked 72nd in the comp for contested ball.

 

[sohohoho]

At least he was winning his share of contested ball. He was ranked 2nd that year.

Daicos is currently ranked 72nd in the comp for contested ball.

No one's won it and not been top 10 in Contested ball since 2007

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

No one's won it and not been top 10 in Contested ball since 2007

So you’d think Jeremy Cameron has none, not even in the top 100. Time to cash out my 81s and load up on Crippa.

 

[sohohoho]

So you’d think Jeremy Cameron has none, not even in the top 100. Time to cash out my 81s and load up on Crippa.

It would be a special year if Jezza can win the Brownlow so I am all for it.

 

[adammania9]

Using .5 vote distribution, I have Daicos on 12.5, 3 votes ahead of Bontempelli and Petracca on 9.5

R1 1.5
R2 3
R3 0
R4 2
R5 3
R6 3
R7 0

 

[benji21]

Laird last year an example of how big stats don't mean votes all the time. Jake Lloyd

44

Jake Lloyd

Age

30

Ht

182cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.4

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

9.0

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.9

4star

MG

403.9

5star

D

23.4

5star

K

14.4

5star

HB

9.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.9

3star

MG

403.9

5star

D

23.2

5star

K

13.4

5star

HB

9.8

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

357.4

5star

in 2019 is probably most similar to Daicos role that I can remember.

 

[5 Bucks]

Laird doesn't kick goals, doesn't have burst away from stoppage in an eye catching way and he handballs far more than he kicks. Big difference between 20 (often extremely damaging) kicks, 15 handballs and a goal or two vs 14 (mostly hack out of a pack) kicks, 19 handballs.

There's just no way Daicos isn't on at least 12 votes to anyone who has eyes.

 

[benji21]

Laird doesn't kick goals, doesn't have burst away from stoppage in an eye catching way and he handballs far more than he kicks. Big difference between 20 (often extremely damaging) kicks, 15 handballs and a goal or two vs 14 (mostly hack out of a pack) kicks, 19 handballs.

There's just no way Daicos isn't on at least 12 votes to anyone who has eyes.

Fair point, although there have been a few along those lines that have won brownlows, Tom Mitchell comes to mind. Neale likes a handball although he added goal kicking to his resume. I do think 11 to 12 is about right for Daicos. But there is a risk he gets ignored in a few.

 

[5 Bucks]

Round 1 could see JDG and Pendlebury pick up 3 and 2. Tom Mitchell good but Daicos gets at least 1

Round 2 Darcy Cameron

14

Darcy Cameron

Age

28

Ht

204cm

Wt

103kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.0

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.7

2star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

3.0

2star

CL

0.5

3star

HO

3.5

5star

D

6.0

2star

K

3.3

2star

HB

2.7

3star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

was outstanding and could get the 3, Daicos 2 at least

Round 3 JDG and Baker could poll the majors. 1 at least for Daicos

Round 4 stiff to not get BOG here but Rayner not only made the punting board ecstatic with his 4 goals but he was the best player when it mattered. 2 likely for Daicos but claims on 3

Round 5 Marshall, Crouch or even Wilkie the main competition but Collingwood won so that helps Daicos get the 3 unless the umps love Darcy Moore

30

Darcy Moore

Age

28

Ht

203cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

169.1

3star

D

13.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

0.7

1star

MG

182.0

3star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

87.4

2star

(captaincy bias is a thing)

Round 6 Sidey good early, JDG a threat but he just gets the 3 here, lock it in.

Round 7 nothing



Absolute worst case is 8 votes + whatever he polls in round 5 which is most likely 3, but possibly less.

 

[sohohoho]

can't compare Daicos to Laird, also Laird polled about as expected last year

 

[Suncraze]

Sir Bont 3 Votes. Let's go

 

[SirBont]

do Petracca and Oliver polled they did enough without been as good as the others I had 3 N Anderson 2 J Viney 1 M Gawn Oliver Petracca? both question marks

 

[X_box_X]

Sir Bont 3 Votes. Let's go

Hopefully.

The concern is Tom Green. Brownlow night will be interesting.

 

[5 Bucks]

Tom with the 3 goals and Bont having a quiet patch before he fired up again late probably has me leaning towards Green getting the 3 votes.

do Petracca and Oliver polled they did enough without been as good as the others I had 3 N Anderson 2 J Viney 1 M Gawn Oliver Petracca? both question marks

I think Petracca a tad more likely than Oliver to get into the votes. Anderson should get the 3, then it's anyone's guess. I've given Trac 2 and Gawn 1, with Viney, Oliver and Wil Powell the others in contention.

 

[Suncraze]

Hopefully.

The concern is Tom Green. Brownlow night will be interesting.

You would have to lean Bont given Dogs won, agree Green was immense though

 

[SirBont]

Tom with the 3 goals and Bont having a quiet patch before he fired up again late probably has me leaning towards Green getting the 3 votes.


I think Petracca a tad more likely than Oliver to get into the votes. Anderson should get the 3, then it's anyone's guess. I've given Trac 2 and Gawn 1, with Viney, Oliver and Wil Powell the others in contention.

thanks mate Tracca a big chance massive overs

 

[X_box_X]

Tom with the 3 goals and Bont having a quiet patch before he fired up again late probably has me leaning towards Green getting the 3 votes.

I've heard of some sharps having a detailed spreadsheet of votes awarded by certain umpires. One category being which umpires are more prone to awarding the three votes to the player they think is most deserving, as well as which umpires are more likely to shy away from giving the three votes to a player from a losing team.

I once asked for a copy but I didn't receive a response. My takeaway from that is the info contained in that spreadsheet is pretty bloody good and the creator knows he's on a good wicket and doesn't want to share it because that would affect his bottom dollar.

Totally fair... I've thought about doing similar but it would take a mighty effort going back through the archives. To keep it relevant, you'd probably only need to go back ten years given only 20 - 25% of the current umpires would have umpired prior to 2013. That would take 100+ hrs of work if you wanted to include a few relevant categories.

 

[5 Bucks]

Noah Anderson

15

Noah Anderson

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

has just had 3 BOG matches in a row IMO and goes up against WC next week. Highly unlikely that he can walk away with the medal but the boy deserves some attention and hype because he has been incredible.

 

[adammania9]

12.5 N Daicos
12 M Bontempelli
11 C Petracca
10 N Anderson
9.5 J Dawson, C Oliver
9 D Parish
8.5 J Cameron, C Warner, Z Merrett

 

[GFC29]

N. Daicos	12.5
C. Petracca	12
J. Cameron, M. Bontempelli	10.5
J. Dawson, C. Oliver, P. Cripps	9.5
P. Dangerfield, N. Anderson	9
C. Curnow, T. Taranto, J. Sinclair	8

 

[5 Bucks]

13 Daicos
12 Oliver
10 Dawson, Petracca, Sinclair, Bontempelli
9 Butters, Anderson, Jezza, Danger
8 Curnow, Taranto, Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

30

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

1. M. Bontempelli - 13
1. C. Oliver - 13
1. N. Daicos - 13
4. C. Petracca - 12
4. J. Dawson - 12
6. N. Anderson - 10
7. J. Cameron - 9
7. J. Sinclair - 9
7. R. Laird - 9
7. P. Dangerfield - 9
7. T. Greene - 9
7. D. Parish - 9