AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls

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ANY BETS POSTED AFTER THE COUNT IS FINISHED WITHOUT PRIOR POSTING WHETHER WINNING OR LOSING WILL GET AN AUTOMATIC RED CARD

 

[5 Bucks]

Taranto going to play midfield almost exclusively at Richmond? Odds 50+ appeals if so

Hopper polled unexpectedly well 2 years ago. Umps must rate him.
Dusty will poll a few.
Bolton will have a couple of best ons.
Lynch might kick some bags, had 3 BOG games in '22
Prestia had 5 best ons last year.

It's most likely going to take at least 8 three vote games to win it in 2023 with the extra round.

If Richmond win 16 games and the BOG goes to Prestia 3x, Dusty 3x, Bolton 3x, Lynch 1x, Hopper 1x it leaves 5 for Taranto and that won't cut it. He'd either have to poll 3's in losing matches or get a ton of 2's and 1's.

 

[5 Bucks]

A player aged 30 or older hasn't won the Brownlow for 20 years and even then it was a 3 way tie on 22 votes which will not get it done today. Neale a chance to buck the trend but Brownlow winners are 23-29. Don't waste your money on living in the past and thinking Danger, Fyfe and Dusty are value.

It really is the battle of the bulls. 9 of the last 10 winners have finished in the top 5 in the league for contested possessions per game. Dustin Martin the odd man out but he was still 7th and clearly the dominant player that year.

Contested ball alone doesn't get it done, we need goals from our midfield bulls too. Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

26

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

has finished as the #1 contested ball winner for the past 3 seasons. Rory Laird

29

Rory Laird

Age

30

Ht

177cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.4

5star

K

12.9

5star

HB

12.5

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.3

4star

CL

1.0

3star

D

19.6

5star

K

10.9

4star

HB

8.7

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.4

3star

has the contested game but he doesn't do enough outside of the stoppage. Ben Cunnington

10

Ben Cunnington

Age

32

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.4

5star

K

9.0

3star

HB

12.4

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

5.6

5star

D

17.7

4star

K

6.0

2star

HB

11.7

5star

M

2.0

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

15.8

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

9.4

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

6.2

5star

CL

3.0

5star

was top 5 year after year but zero chance. There needs to be something else in addition.

The value pick at this point has got to be Josh Dunkley

5

Josh Dunkley

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

20.7

5star

K

7.0

3star

HB

13.7

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

14.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.4

4star

at $67 (PB). Obviously Neale is the choice most people will go to but Brisbane had no other player average over 10 contested possessions per match last year. Let's put that in perspective. Even North Melbourne had at least 2 players average 10+ and Dunkley will walk straight in to being a full time mid with ample opportunity.
Dunkley is coming from a team that had 4 players inside the top 26 in the AFL for contested possessions, himself included. He can definitely raise his 11.3 per match (25th in the AFL) to the required 15, and he is a goal kicker. Brisbane should win a lot of games and it's possible that Neale starts to decline and Dunkley in his prime at age 26 surpasses him.

It has been Neale or bust in the Brisbane midfield and he's gotten some 3 votes almost by default because there's nobody else there. Maybe some of those 3's become 2's instead if there's a guy getting 28 touches, 15 contested, kicking a goal or two and is also the league's number 1 smotherer and number 11th tackler as an option for the umpires to award votes to.

Alternatively Bontempelli will need to pick up some of the slack left by Dunkley's departure and increase his contested possession rate up to the required mark. No more forward time with Lobb coming in and he kicks more goals from the midfield than as a forward anyway. Should be equal favourite with Cripps. Maybe the Dogs aren't expected to go well enough, but they have the equal oldest team in the AFL next season so they should win enough games to be around the mark. $17 is silly value. The man polled 33 votes and had 9 three vote games in 2021.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Taranto going to play midfield almost exclusively at Richmond? Odds 50+ appeals if so

They mightn't win enough games but if Josh Kelly ($67) now has a coach who has a semblence of a brain he'll be on ball way more and he stands out when he gets it. Leon cost this bloke shedloads of votes being an awful coach

Likewise Coniglio $101 ?

Of the likely types I like Bont i think

Thought that was 50-1 to win Richmond

Unders

 

[5 Bucks]

Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

$3.50 to win GWS.

Contested BEAST. Had a huge preseason, just had 50 disposals in their intraclub. He is now cemented as the #1 inside midfielder at the Giants. A hybrid of Cripps, Oliver and Wines and he's capbale of winning the medal someday, maybe even worth a nibble at the 151 currently on offer too.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Tom Green $3.50 to win GWS.

Contested BEAST. Had a huge preseason, just had 50 disposals in their intraclub. He is now cemented as the #1 inside midfielder at the Giants. A hybrid of Cripps, Oliver and Wines and he's capbale of winning the medal someday, maybe even worth a nibble at the 151 currently on offer too.

Started off huge last year too then went missing for the rest of the year

 

[5 Bucks]

Started off huge last year too then went missing for the rest of the year

Exactly, he's shown it in glimpses already and with another big preseason under his belt he should be able to sustain it for longer. He's 22 and ready to explode now. Taranto and Hopper out means that he's got ample opportunity too, was thrown around a little bit but I doubt he's going to be anywhere but in the thick of things. Can see him finishing right at the top of the list for contested possessions and he kicks a goal every now and then to help him poll.

 

[5 Bucks]

Holmes $41 most Geelong votes not the worst bet around. Going to play inside midfield and he's got that breakaway out of the stoppage burst like Judd, Danger so the umpires will notice him. Paddy himself made the call that he could be the best player in the competition someday.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Holmes $41 most Geelong votes not the worst bet around. Going to play inside midfield and he's got that breakaway out of the stoppage burst like Judd, Danger so the umpires will notice him. Paddy himself made the call that he could be the best player in the competition someday.

The same Holmes that had 2 Brownlow votes last year?

 

[fpm84]

Holmes $41 most Geelong votes not the worst bet around. Going to play inside midfield and he's got that breakaway out of the stoppage burst like Judd, Danger so the umpires will notice him. Paddy himself made the call that he could be the best player in the competition someday.

He looks set for a very good year but for him to surpass Cameron and Guthrie in votes he’d have to have an AA season.

 

[SirBont]

Anyone have good spreadsheets that are easy to use a good layout to record votes for this year

 

[ash_1050]

Tom Green $3.50 to win GWS.

Contested BEAST. Had a huge preseason, just had 50 disposals in their intraclub. He is now cemented as the #1 inside midfielder at the Giants. A hybrid of Cripps, Oliver and Wines and he's capbale of winning the medal someday, maybe even worth a nibble at the 151 currently on offer too.

Which site is this?

 

[5 Bucks]

TAB. In to $3

 

[SirBont]

thoughts I had 3 T Taronto 2 D Rioli 1 P Cripps huge LQ

 

[iluvparis]

Should be more than enough for crippa to pull the big 3

 

[Gift]

Feels like one of those games where the umps would pull random votes out of their arse lol

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Amon 3 votes

 

[HTPunter]

Nicky D, De Goey, JD & Pendles for the votes tonight.

I went 3 JDG 2 ND 1 JD but it’s a raffle

 

[5 Bucks]

3 De Goey
2 Pendles (maybe BOG)
1 Nick Daicos

J Daicos and Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

35

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

a chance

 

[SirBont]

3 T Mitchell

2 S Pendlebury

1 J De Goey

any love for T Mitchell

 

[HTPunter]

3 T Mitchell

2 S Pendlebury

1 J De Goey

any love for T Mitchell

Influential and one of the game breakers but just 5 disposals total across Q2 & 3 - he was virtually unsighted for half the game. There’s 3 solid contenders who put in 4 quarter performances (ND/JD/Pendles) and the other game breaker in JDG ahead I’d say.

 

[5 Bucks]

3 LDU
2 SHEEZEL
1 SHUEY/LARKEY

3 JHF
2 BUTTERS
1 ROZEE

3 KOZZIE
2 GAWN
1 TRELOAR/TRACCA/LEVER

 

[HTPunter]

I went

3. LDU 2. Larkey 1. Sheezel - Eagles had more even contribution

3. JHF 2. Rioli 1. Butters - I think Rioli stood out when the game was in the balance, raffle the 1

3. Pickett 2. Gawn 1. Petracca - while coaches award votes might be more tough for the minor placings I can’t see how Trac missed in the Brownlow here

I watched mostly the Dees game but
3. Warner 2. Gulden 1. Stephens from my limited following

 

[GFC29]

Did anyone watch the Freo v Saints game? It's the only game I missed over the weekend and I'm struggling to assign votes.

Looks like Freo's backs cashed in on a typical Ross slow slop-fest, but not sure if these were genuine intercept/important possessions or keepings off. Steele, Crouch, Sinclair, Cox and Ryan seem the constants among match reports.

 

[IDIG]

Tom Green $3.50 to win GWS.

Contested BEAST. Had a huge preseason, just had 50 disposals in their intraclub. He is now cemented as the #1 inside midfielder at the Giants. A hybrid of Cripps, Oliver and Wines and he's capbale of winning the medal someday, maybe even worth a nibble at the 151 currently on offer too.

Like it and now they've got Kelly out for at least one (possibly 2) and will have the lingering effect of concussion to deal with.

Did you have him getting 2 or 3 on the weekend? Seems it's pretty evenly split between him and Toby Greene and with WC next who just gave up 32d, 19 contested, 10 clearances and a goal to LDU (similar stat line to Green's funnily enough), it's set up perfectly for Green to pick up some more votes and possibly leading after 2 rounds.

 

[pendlebury_10]

Like it and now they've got Kelly out for at least one (possibly 2) and will have the lingering effect of concussion to deal with.

Did you have him getting 2 or 3 on the weekend? Seems it's pretty evenly split between him and Toby Greene and with WC next who just gave up 32d, 19 contested, 10 clearances and a goal to LDU (similar stat line to Green's funnily enough), it's set up perfectly for Green to pick up some more votes and possibly leading after 2 rounds.

I wouldn't be counting out Coniglio either, he looked back to his best on the weekend. Would have given him the two ahead of Green.