List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[Lord Nev]

Has there ever been a draft where a club traded a pick like pick 7 for 15 and 33 just cause they wanted to move back and use those picks to select players and it had nothing to do with acquiring points?

I highly doubt it, because I dont think any club would be that stupid, you'd take pick 7 in such a trade every single time, happy to be proven wrong if you can find an example.

I don't know. I didn't suggest that was how the trade would work, I was just providing an example of a points equivalent worth for what you want to trade for a 31 year old key forward with a bung foot.

 

[Bluelegs]

Has there ever been a draft where a club traded a pick like pick 7 for 15 and 33 just cause they wanted to move back and use those picks to select players and it had nothing to do with acquiring points?

I highly doubt it, because I dont think any club would be that stupid, you'd take pick 7 in such a trade every single time, happy to be proven wrong if you can find an example.

Not quite the same but in 2019 we traded our ff to North along with pick 26 and 50 for their first that year.

Ended up being 2019 8 for 2020 13, 2019 30 and 56 in each draft

 

[Topkent]

Has there ever been a draft where a club traded a pick like pick 7 for 15 and 33 just cause they wanted to move back and use those picks to select players and it had nothing to do with acquiring points?

I highly doubt it, because I dont think any club would be that stupid, you'd take pick 7 in such a trade every single time, happy to be proven wrong if you can find an example.

Probably if there's been a club who was after local talent at a later pickal maybe.

You absolutely take Lynch if he's available which he won't be.
15 and 33 for Lynch would be more than ok, Richmond would say no to that deal as well
Assuming old mate thought 5 was an overpay for May aswell

 

[Lord Nev]

Probably if there's been a club who was after local talent at a later pickal maybe.

You absolutely take Lynch if he's available which he won't be.
15 and 33 for Lynch would be more than ok, Richmond would say no to that deal as well
Assuming old mate thought 5 was an overpay for May aswell

Lol May was 5 years younger when traded to us than Lynch would be, and he wasn't looking like injury would hamper his career.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Not quite the same but in 2019 we traded our ff to North along with pick 26 and 50 for their first that year.

Ended up being 2019 8 for 2020 13, 2019 26 and 50.

It isn't quite the same, but if we pretended all those picks were in the same draft the draft pick value chart value would indicate North won the trade comfortably.

So...how did it work out for both teams? What were the picks used on? I feel this will illustrate my point perfectly. (You have to be dumb to trade a top 10 pick for a scattering of later picks)

 

[Lord Nev]

It isn't quite the same, but if pretended all those picks were in the same draft the draft pick value chart value would indicate North won the trade comfortably.

So...how did it work out for both teams? What were the picks used on? I feel this will illustrate my point perfectly.

Geez really reaching now mate. You're moving the goal posts a lot now trying to say how did a split pick trade work out for clubs in reference for the draft value you want to give up for Lynch. Those things are in no way related.

This thread has jumped the shark.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Geez really reaching now mate. You're moving the goal posts a lot now trying to say how did a split pick trade work out for clubs in reference for the draft value you want to give up for Lynch. Those things are in no way related.

This thread has jumped the shark.

Well lets bring it back to beginning, forget about pick 7, thats convoluting things just as much coz a club would only trade pick 7 in a particular set of circumstances, do you truly believe pick 15 and 33 could have a bigger impact on our flag chances than Lynch could (if he passed a medical) ?

 

[Bluelegs]

It isn't quite the same, but if pretended all those picks were in the same draft the draft pick value chart value would indicate North won the trade comfortably.

So...how did it work out for both teams? What were the picks used on? I feel this will illustrate my point perfectly.

Pick 8 was traded to Freo, who drafted Serong for 10 and 28 which became 12 and 32.

We drafted Kozzy with pick 12.

North used our 2020 first on Tom Powell.

26 became pick 31 not 30, sorry. It was used to pick up Charlie Comben (Rivers was drafted with pick 32 ), and pick 50 which turned into 56 was traded to Hawthorn along with pick 73 and Norths F2 for Hawks pick 30 which became 34 and was used to pick up Jack Mahony.

56 would get on-traded to Carlton, then Essendon and was eventually used to get Ned Cahill.

The draft is such a simple and elegant system.

EDIT: Some info left out around the Kozzy pick.

 

[Lord Nev]

Well lets bring it back to beginning, do you truly believe pick 15 and 33 could have a bigger impact on our flag chances than Lynch could (if he passed a medical) ?

That's a fair way to put it. Obviously Lynch would have more impact next year than the likelihood of picks 15 and 33 would, I've already equated the trade as similar to that of Brown where it made a difference to us in winning a flag, but the issue I have is that I think it would play out a lot like the Brown one where Lynch would be done after a season or so.

So while Lynch would have more impact in that first year, in the following 10 years there's far more chance the players taken at those picks - very similar to the ones we got Pickett and Rivers with - would have more impact over the journey.

That's why I like the trade idea itself, but I think the value of what we would trade needs to be weighed against the amount of time we would get out of Lynch.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

We drafted Kozzy with pick 8.

North used our 2020 first on Tom Powell.

26 became pick 31 not 30, sorry. It was used to pick up Charlie Comben (Rivers was drafted with pick 32 ), and pick 50 which turned into 56 was traded to Hawthorn along with pick 73 and Norths F2 for Hawks pick 30 which became 34 and was used to pick up Jack Mahony.

56 would get on-traded to Carlton, then Essendon and was eventually used to get Ned Cahill.

The draft is such a simple and elegant system.

Appreciate you doing the running around mate.

A trade like this goes a long way to explaining why Norf are in the position they are in and we are in the position we are in. Winning trades according to the draft pick value chart, taking massive L's in the real world. Lesson to be learnt: Dont be like Norf and trade your picks in the top 10 for later picks.

 

[Lord Nev]

Appreciate you doing the running around mate.

A trade like this goes a long way to explaining why Norf are in the position they are in and we are in the position we are in. Winning trades according to the draft pick value chart, taking massive L's in the real world.

So you agree then that we generally do well with our drafting? Good to hear, and yes I agree I would prefer Kozzy and Rivers to Lynch.

 

[Bluelegs]

Appreciate you doing the running around mate.

A trade like this goes a long way to explaining why Norf are in the position they are in and we are in the position we are in. Winning trades according to the draft pick value chart, taking massive L's in the real world.

There's also the massive asterisk that Covid had on the 2020 draft so we lucked out a bit trading out of there. Always a bit of hindsight hero to look at players that were passed on, but after Powell the next crop of players included Heath Chapman, Oliver Henry, Max Holmes and Jake Bowey. Plus with Rivers going 1 pick after Comben they could have done better from the trade with the picks they had.

But at the end of the day when we make trades like that it's because we rate someone at the pick we want and don't rate guys with the picks we have which is why we're often perceived to be trading 'overs'.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

That's a fair way to put it. Obviously Lynch would have more impact next year than the likelihood of picks 15 and 33 would, I've already equated the trade as similar to that of Brown where it made a difference to us in winning a flag, but the issue I have is that I think it would play out a lot like the Brown one where Lynch would be done after a season or so.

So while Lynch would have more impact in that first year, in the following 10 years there's far more chance the players taken at those picks - very similar to the ones we got Pickett and Rivers with - would have more impact over the journey.

That's why I like the trade idea itself, but I think the value of what we would trade needs to be weighed against the amount of time we would get out of Lynch.

I think pick 15 is a 50/50 on if it works out, and pick 33 is more like 15/85. Can probably bump those numbers up a touch given its Jason Taylor, but expecting another Rivers at the same pick isn't a fair assessment, hes a massive outlier.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

There's also the massive asterisk that Covid had on the 2020 draft so we lucked out a bit trading out of there. Always a bit of hindsight hero to look at players that were passed on, but after Powell the next crop of players included Heath Chapman, Oliver Henry, Max Holmes and Jake Bowey. Plus with Rivers going 1 pick after Comben they could have done better from the trade with the picks they had.

But at the end of the day when we make trades like that it's because we rate someone at the pick we want and don't rate guys with the picks we have which is why we're often perceived to be trading 'overs'.

Ive loved our trading philosophy. Try and get instant impact players, be it trying to move up in the draft or using high picks to get a quality vet. Cant think of a time where we have moved back since the Kelly trade. We always seem to be trying to move up. I think this has gone a long way into turning us into a winner.

 

[Lord Nev]

I think pick 15 is a 50/50 on if it works out, and pick 33 is more like 15/85. Can probably bump those numbers up a touch given its Jason Taylor, but expecting another Rivers at the same pick isn't a fair assessment, hes a massive outlier.

This is worth a read....

Demons premiership star Alex Neal Bullen on Melbourne’s team built on late draft pick success

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

So you agree then that we generally do well with our drafting? Good to hear, and yes I agree I would prefer Kozzy and Rivers to Lynch.

Pick 8 was used on Kozzy as Bluelegs just detailed (due to father son/academy picks)

 

[Bluelegs]

Ive loved our trading philosophy. Try and get instant impact players, be it trying to move up in the draft or using high picks to get a quality vet. Cant think of a time where we have moved back since the Kelly trade. We always seem to be trying to move up.

Yeah and with the Kelly trade and our whole strategy that year was all about us finding guys who could perform instantly and getting us out of our death spiral. Maybe we do better if we draft Kelly but you only have to look back a couple of years prior to see what being a part of a team anchored to the bottom does to talent.

 

[Lord Nev]

Pick 8 was used on Kozzy as Bluelegs just detailed.

It ended up being pick 12 for Kozzy and 32 for Rivers.

 

[Bluelegs]

It ended up being pick 12 for Kozzy and 32 for Rivers.

Yeah, sorry 12 after all the priority picks and academy selections. 2019 a much stronger draft than 2020 though

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

So you agree then that we generally do well with our drafting? Good to hear, and yes I agree I would prefer Kozzy and Rivers to Lynch.

Also, our pick 15 this year is more likely to be closer to 20, a trade of Lynch for Jefferson and Fraser Rosman is probably closer to the mark.

 

[Lord Nev]

Yeah, sorry 12 after all the priority picks and academy selections. 2019 a much stronger draft than 2020 though

Yep, and all the talk this year seems to be it drops off a lot after the top 7 and then again after the top 20. I think we'll be looking to use 3-4 picks as high as we can and that's it.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Yep, and all the talk this year seems to be it drops off a lot after the top 7 and then again after the top 20.

So you agree, its far more likely to be the scenario of Jefferson and Rosman than Kozzy and Rivers. Nice to know we are on the same page.

 

[Lord Nev]

Also, our pick 15 this year is more likely to be closer to 20, a trade of Lynch for Jefferson and Fraser Rosman is probably closer to the mark.

We won't be trading any high picks for players this year, especially 31 year old ones. Will gladly have a bet on that with you if you like? How about, if we trade out any top 20 pick for a 30+ year old player I won't post for a week, and if we don't then you don't post for a week. Deal?

 

[Lord Nev]

So you agree, its far more likely to be the scenario of Jefferson and Rosman than Kozzy and Rivers. Nice to know we are on the same page.

 

[stEdy]

Yeah we traded 8 to Freo for 10 and 28 so they could get in before the Henry bid - which became Kozz and Riv