List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[Tulip]

he's likely to be worth even more like JHF to Port.

From memory, Adelaide offered 3 firsts for pick 1 and North said no. They got less from Port, and he was in contract.

 

[BaliDemon]

This risky strategy helped us win a premiership.

The operative word there being ‘a’.
We should be looking to the Geelong model. As a general strategy, let other clubs do the risky and hard work of blooding 18yo’s and putting them through 60 game apprenticeships. Bring in proven, mature bodied 22-25yos who can impact immediately and extend the flag window. Success, when handled correctly as the Cats did, breeds more success.

 

[Topkent]

JHF, Ashcroft and Daicos are all playing in top 4 sides. That's the difference

JHF looks way better at Port than North. These kids get dropped into bottom sides who are usually falling apart. Until recently the number 1 pick has never gone to a well functioning club so you could never see them develop properly

We should go for it

 

[Bluelegs]

From memory, Adelaide offered 3 firsts for pick 1 and North said no. They got less from Port, and he was in contract.

Think they got three first rounders back either way and the players they ended up with were probably better than what they got from Adelaide.

Either way if Reid is that much better than everyone else Idk that freos pick plus our pick plus next year's pick will satisfy them. Pick 1 for a top ten pick and and two in the teens?

Guess it depends how deep the drafts are.

 

[Topkent]

Think they got three first rounders back either way and the players they ended up with were probably better than what they got from Adelaide.

Either way if Reid is that much better than everyone else Idk that freos pick plus our pick plus next year's pick will satisfy them. Pick 1 for a top ten pick and and two in the teens?

Guess it depends how deep the drafts are.

Yeah WC would tell us to get ****ed. You'd need a top 5 pick and another under 10 at least I'd reckon or a very good player like JVR thrown In

 

[Tulip]

Think they got three first rounders back either way and the players they ended up with were probably better than what they got from Adelaide.

Either way if Reid is that much better than everyone else Idk that freos pick plus our pick plus next year's pick will satisfy them. Pick 1 for a top ten pick and and two in the teens?

Guess it depends how deep the drafts are.

Not even close, to be honest. They got two back and traded pick 1 down to pick 3, as well as a handful of pick swaps late.

NORTH MELBOURNE
Trade out: Jason Horne-Francis, 1, Freo's 2023 third-round pick
Trade in: 2, 3, 40, 43, Port's 2023 future first-round pick

I think West Coast will trade the pick, there's already so much noise about Reid not wanting to leave Victoria. 2023+24 1sts and Freo's 1st isn't going to cut it though. You'd need another first on top of that.

 

[pjfairbairn]

Not even close, to be honest. They got two back and traded pick 1 down to pick 3, as well as a handful of pick swaps late.

NORTH MELBOURNE
Trade out: Jason Horne-Francis, 1, Freo's 2023 third-round pick
Trade in: 2, 3, 40, 43, Port's 2023 future first-round pick

I think West Coast will trade the pick, there's already so much noise about Reid not wanting to leave Victoria. 2023+24 1sts and Freo's 1st isn't going to cut it though. You'd need another first on top of that.

I'd do it, and I reckon that those 3 picks could be enough considering how dire their list profile is

 

[schmuttt]

I'd do it, and I reckon that those 3 picks could be enough considering how dire their list profile is

Nah I don’t think so, another vic club will put up a better deal than us if pick 1 is up for offers. We’d need two top 10 picks and next years first for them to even pick up the phone.

What does everyone want us to target in the draft this year assuming we don’t trade the picks? I’m kinda with TK we badly need to draft quality mids as our drop off in the middle after the top two is pretty scary. After that I’d like us to look at KPDs (Although geez I’d love Ben McKay).

 

[Topkent]

Nah I don’t think so, another vic club will put up a better deal than us if pick 1 is up for offers. We’d need two top 10 picks and next years first for them to even pick up the phone.

What does everyone want us to target in the draft this year assuming we don’t trade the picks? I’m kinda with TK we badly need to draft quality mids as our drop off in the middle after the top two is pretty scary. After that I’d like us to look at KPDs (Although geez I’d love Ben McKay).

We might have more luck trading one of our picks to a vic club to give them the capital i.e our first for De Koning
Not actually him but might snaffle something

 

[pjfairbairn]

I'd like Nick 'The Wizard' Watson. Sounds like Kynan Brown is getting better and better too

 

[Bluelegs]

We might have more luck trading one of our picks to a vic club to give them the capital i.e our first for De Koning
Not actually him but might snaffle something

Not a bad idea. Sometimes you can ride the coat-tails of another clubs trade and get some genuine value.

 

[00Stinger]

If anyone is getting pick 1 it will be GWS I think

They have the three first rounders and they will more than likely be better value than our 3

 

[Topkent]

If anyone is getting pick 1 it will be GWS I think

They have the three first rounders and they will more than likely be better value than our 3

So that's what I'm talking about, maybe we give them freos pick for their last first rounder plus a player like Whitfield or whatever. Again not exactly that deal but we might be able to snaffle someone from them

 

[Bluelegs]

If anyone is getting pick 1 it will be GWS I think

They have the three first rounders and they will more than likely be better value than our 3

Even more likely Reid pisses off after a couple of years than West Coast lol. Probably end up at Collingwood or Hawthorn.

 

[Topkent]

Even more likely Reid pisses off after a couple of years than West Coast lol. Probably end up at Collingwood or Hawthorn.

I think us and Carlton could use him the most from Victoria. North and Hawks need bulk. Collingwood don't need him, dogs don't need him, cats maybe as a Danger replacement but they won't have the picks.

 

[BaliDemon]

This year’s Brownlow favourite [PLAYERCARD]Zak Butters[/PLAYERCARD] was pick 12. 2022 medallist [PLAYERCARD]Patrick Cripps[/PLAYERCARD] pick 13. 2021 Wines was pick 7. And so on. You can select fabulously talented kids in that range of the draft … if your recruiter knows what they’re doing.

Purely based on statistical analysis, the value of the number one pick is overhyped and not worth the massively high risk strategy of selling the farm (multiple first round picks and/or a quality player) to entice the bottom club to sell.

Horne-Francis may or may not prove the exception to this rule. It’s way too early to tell. He has been better this year but certainly not superstar quality. For me you’d have to be close to guaranteed a Chris Judd or Michael Voss level midfielder to justify such a risky strategy but no-one can give you that guarantee. It’s impossible to know.

 

[Bluelegs]

I think us and Carlton could use him the most from Victoria. North and Hawks need bulk. Collingwood don't need him, dogs don't need him, cats maybe as a Danger replacement but they won't have the picks.

I'm talking about if he requested a trade in a year or two from a side like GWS. Actually could totally see Geelong dipping down into the bottom 6 next year giving them the draft capital to trade in Reid. Be the most annoying thing ever.

 

[00Stinger]

You can select fabulously talented kids in that range of the draft … if your recruiter knows what they’re doing.

That is provided that said player is available at that pick though

 

[BaliDemon]

That is provided that said player is available at that pick though

There are no guarantees with any strategy. Some are just more or less risky than others. What is clear is the number one pick is routinely overhyped and overrated.

Melbourne’s cleverest course of action this year would be to somehow parlay picks 8, 17 & 25 or whatever we’ve got into two earlier first round picks. Give me picks 8 & 10 over solitary pick 1 every day of the week. More options open up with two excellent picks like that, in terms of both selecting youngsters and/or trade for ready made guns.

 

[00Stinger]

There are no guarantees with any strategy. Some are just more or less risky than others. What is clear is the number one pick is routinely overhyped and overrated.

Melbourne’s cleverest strategy this year would be to somehow parlay picks 8, 17 & 25 or whatever we’ve got into two earlier first round picks. Give me picks 7 & 10 over solitary pick 1 every day of the week. More options open up with two excellent picks like that.

I get your point but it isn't guaranteed. Both methods have merit and can be equally right or wrong imo

The lower down you draft, the more likely the best has been drafted v Having more picks (chances) but having more players already taken

 

[BaliDemon]

I get your point but it isn't guaranteed. Both methods have merit and can be equally right or wrong imo

The lower down you draft, the more likely the best has been drafted v Having more picks (chances) but having more players already taken

You’re making a false equivalency. Statistically, my preferred method has more merit.

 

[00Stinger]

You’re making a false equivalency. Statistically, my preferred method has more merit.

show me on what basis?

 

[BaliDemon]

show me on what basis?

1. Number one pick being consistently overrated
2. Wisdom of mitigating risk of failure/disastrous injury by bringing in multiple players
3. Addressing multiple weaknesses/holes in your 22 rather than one

Go through the last 10-12 drafts, you’ll see that I’m right.

 

[TheBoss]

The only time I recall where the #1 pick clearly out performed their draft cohort over the length of their career was Nick Riewoldt.

Some kids look like future champions because they develop much earlier. Remember the hype for 16yo [PLAYERCARD]Jesse Hogan[/PLAYERCARD] and [PLAYERCARD]Jack Martin[/PLAYERCARD]?

Having multiple picks is better than going all in for the #1 prospect. Players fail for a multitude of reasons, be it injury, maturity or poor development.

History shows the #1 pick is rarely the best player drafted. In 2015, Weitering and Schache were “can’t miss” prospects.

Weitering is a fine player.
Schache is at his third club and languishing in the VFL.

The 4th pick was a fat ranga that will end up the greatest Demon of the AFL era

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

I’d rather a George Wardlaw type than Harley Reid tbh