List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[raven echo]

Yeah Reid sounds like he'll be more like an Ashcroft/Walsh type as opposed to the many talls that have gone at 1 and never really eventuated.

I spose we just death ride Freo for now and see where we're at come end of season.

Imagine if we got pick 1 from them and all this talk of packaging picks for Reid was a moot point?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Imagine if we got pick 1 from them and all this talk of packaging picks for Reid was a moot point?

No no no, then you'd have all these folks saying we should trade back and get 3 first rounders.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

Based on the ladder right now we have picks 6 and 16. Next year's first is slated to be on the table as well.

I've gone back to the last 11 drafts and listed below pick 1, 6, 16 and the next year's 20. I chose 20 partly randomly, but also partly because picks slide when F/S and academy picks are included. I haven't assumed 6 or 16 slide, so i'm compensating for that a bit. 20 is still first round most of the time, but you could use any pick in the teens as a comparison.

Here's the list:

	1​	6​	16​	future 1st (20)
2021​	Horne-Francis	Rachele	Darcy Wilmot	Jacob Konstanty
2020​	Ugle-Hagan	Grainger-Barras	Lachie Jones	Kai Lohmann
2019​	Rowell	McAsey	Cooper Stephens	Max Holmes
2018​	Walsh	Ben King	Ned McHenry	Sam Philp
2017​	Rayner	J. Stephenson	Ed Richards	Collier-Dawkins
2016​	McGrath	Petrevski-Seton	Todd Marshall	Coleman-Jones
2015​	Weitering	Francis	Himmelberg	Isaac Cumming
2014​	McCartin	Marchbank	Sam Durdin	Fiorini
2013​	Boyd	Scharenberg	Darcy Lang	Laverde
2012​	Whitfield	Macrae	Jackson Thurlow	Jack Leslie
2011​	Patton	Wingard	Tom Sheridan	Broomhead

Which years do you take pick 1, and which do you take 6,16 and 20 based on this?

Whilst not necessarily at Reid levels, there are certainly a few #1s on this list that were touted as superstars from an early age (thinking Rowell, Weitering, Boyd and Patton in particular)

Good experiment Meds.
First thing that strikes me is there's a total lack of stars and plenty of busts right across the four picks. As it turns out there were no stars from any of those selections in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017 (yet), 2020 (yet).

You'd definitely take the pick 1 in 2015 with Weitering.
Horne-Francis v Rachele is yet to be determined but both look like being future stars.
Walsh has the runs on the board but King may well turn out to be a more valuable player.
Rayner better than the 3 picks his year but he's no proven star himself yet.
Marshall and Coleman-Jones arguably more valuable than McGrath.
McRae and Whitfield probably around par.

Based on this chart maybe just trade all your top 20 picks for established players

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

No no no, then you'd have all these folks saying we should trade back and get 3 first rounders.

 

[Topkent]

Based on the ladder right now we have picks 6 and 16. Next year's first is slated to be on the table as well.

I've gone back to the last 11 drafts and listed below pick 1, 6, 16 and the next year's 20. I chose 20 partly randomly, but also partly because picks slide when F/S and academy picks are included. I haven't assumed 6 or 16 slide, so i'm compensating for that a bit. 20 is still first round most of the time, but you could use any pick in the teens as a comparison.

Here's the list:

	1​	6​	16​	future 1st (20)
2021​	Horne-Francis	Rachele	Darcy Wilmot	Jacob Konstanty
2020​	Ugle-Hagan	Grainger-Barras	Lachie Jones	Kai Lohmann
2019​	Rowell	McAsey	Cooper Stephens	Max Holmes
2018​	Walsh	Ben King	Ned McHenry	Sam Philp
2017​	Rayner	J. Stephenson	Ed Richards	Collier-Dawkins
2016​	McGrath	Petrevski-Seton	Todd Marshall	Coleman-Jones
2015​	Weitering	Francis	Himmelberg	Isaac Cumming
2014​	McCartin	Marchbank	Sam Durdin	Fiorini
2013​	Boyd	Scharenberg	Darcy Lang	Laverde
2012​	Whitfield	Macrae	Jackson Thurlow	Jack Leslie
2011​	Patton	Wingard	Tom Sheridan	Broomhead

Which years do you take pick 1, and which do you take 6,16 and 20 based on this?

Whilst not necessarily at Reid levels, there are certainly a few #1s on this list that were touted as superstars from an early age (thinking Rowell, Weitering, Boyd and Patton in particular)

Weitering can still be a star. Boyd and Pattern I think won't be a mistake repeated. Really I'm just seeing a stack of crap, there's probably 2-3 standout players in a draft every year. 5-10 in a super draft. Think that at least with pick 1 you get first crack at that talent.

 

[Saab NLAW]

From my amateurish knowledge of this upcoming draft (ie reading BF), it seems that there is a lot of really good key position talent available. I think we'll probably go for a midfielder so even if we have pick 5/6 we're going to end up with a top 3 midfielder.

That's a damn good result for a team who will play finals

 

[danster168]

I think our desire to finally get a top end father/son is going to be on hold for a bit. Kynan Brown isn't really setting the place on fire so looks more like a late draft option at this stage. Noah Yze similarly and I don't think there is anyone out there that can actually confirm that Kalani White is a high draft prospect.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

Just having cause to look back over previous drafts, it's an interesting pattern that a lot of the number 1 picks turn out over time to just be the most physically ready to go at 18 and then as their careers progress they revert back towards the mean.

Swallow, Rowell, McGrath, Rayner, Horne-Francis of the mids all probably looked a lot better because at 17 than maybe they deserved to because they were more physically developed than their counterparts. Most of that group really jumped out of the gates in their first few games but as time goes on they started to look a bit more average. Plus you've got Boyd, Patton, McCartin - can even include Hogan in that category - who were just big units who nobody could go with in the u/18s. Time will tell whether Ugle-Hagan and Cadman are in that category too.

It's a bit like racehorses, the expensive Golden Slipper types tend to be the ones ready to race straight away but not the ones who go on to be champions. Since 1981 you've really only got Hodge and Riewoldt in 2000 and 2001 of the number 1 picks who went on to become champions.

 

[mrmonkey]

I'm down with going after Reid but when was the last time pick 1 was traded, I can only think of 2001.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I'm down with going after Reid but when was the last time pick 1 was traded, I can only think of 2001.

Err, last year

 

[Meds]

I'm down with going after Reid but when was the last time pick 1 was traded, I can only think of 2001.

6 months ago

 

[mrmonkey]

Err, last year

 

[markm106]

I think our desire to finally get a top end father/son is going to be on hold for a bit. Kynan Brown isn't really setting the place on fire so looks more like a late draft option at this stage. Noah Yze similarly and I don't think there is anyone out there that can actually confirm that Kalani White is a high draft prospect.

I posted something similar earlier White. Seems Gold Coast are keen on him but he’s keen on the Dees. I agree there’s little info as to how he’s ranked but he’s only under 16 now I believe so we’ll probably hear more this year. Apparently a very exciting prospect.

 

[markm106]

The argument of 3 players v 1 player really depends on the talent. The general feeling is he’s the best prospect there’s ever been. I guess in terms of impact they’re talking Dusty. That bloke won 3 Norm Smith medals. And a grand final off his own boot.

 

[Dory_77]

I posted something similar earlier White. Seems Gold Coast are keen on him but he’s keen on the Dees. I agree there’s little info as to how he’s ranked but he’s only under 16 now I believe so we’ll probably hear more this year. Apparently a very exciting prospect.

He's super tall for his age isn't he? That always gives 'could be anything!' vibes to people.

 

[markm106]

He's super tall for his age isn't he? That always gives 'could be anything!' vibes to people.

Super tall and super athletic. I think holds a junior state high jump record or something.

 

[TheBoss]

He's super tall for his age isn't he? That always gives 'could be anything!' vibes to people.

Looked to be about 6’3 or 6’4 in the Insta post the club shared of him with Trac and Clarry.

Still growing. Will have genuine kpf height by the time he is eligible for the draft.

No idea about his ability, I don’t follow junior footy

 

[dazzledavey36]

I think our desire to finally get a top end father/son is going to be on hold for a bit. Kynan Brown isn't really setting the place on fire so looks more like a late draft option at this stage. Noah Yze similarly and I don't think there is anyone out there that can actually confirm that Kalani White is a high draft prospect.

You've gone off way early on Brown.

Brown was never touted to be a high draft prospect. He was always touted to be a 2nd round pick or at worst mid 3rd. Have watched a few Oakleigh games this year and clubs have put a tag on him because of his ability to be damaging with his speed and ball use.

He was BOG for Vic Country B team trial match over the weekend where a stack of AFL recruiters were watching.

 

[dazzledavey36]

I posted something similar earlier White. Seems Gold Coast are keen on him but he’s keen on the Dees. I agree there’s little info as to how he’s ranked but he’s only under 16 now I believe so we’ll probably hear more this year. Apparently a very exciting prospect.

Well of course they are keen because he's actually zoned to their Gold Coast Academy.

Pending form over the next few years there will be a time where he'll have to make a decision over nominating for father son or sticking with the Suns Academy. If he accepts the father son nomination then that immediately rules out being eligible for thr Sun Academy pick.

 

[markm106]

Well of course they are keen because he's actually zoned to their Gold Coast Academy.

Pending form over the next few years there will be a time where he'll have to make a decision over nominating for father son or sticking with the Suns Academy. If he accepts the father son nomination then that immediately rules out being eligible for thr Sun Academy pick.

Yeah I know he’s zoned to the GC academy. But apparently he’s basically committed the Dees as it stands.

 

[markm106]

You've gone off way early on Brown.

Brown was never touted to be a high draft prospect. He was always touted to be a 2nd round pick or at worst mid 3rd. Have watched a few Oakleigh games this year and clubs have put a tag on him because of his ability to be damaging with his speed and ball use.

He was BOG for Vic Country B team trial match over the weekend where a stack of AFL recruiters were watching.

My understanding is you can’t tag in the underage footy. Unless rules changed. I guess you could put a player on a stoppages etc.
I thought Brown was rated a 2nd or 3rd rounder also. However directly from an oppo club scout, he is perhaps lacking in the skills and decision making department. I have heard his got good speed and toughness. He rated him more a late or rookie selection.
It was great he dominated the B side game. It’ll be interesting to see if he makes the final team for Vic Metro.

 

[dazzledavey36]

My understanding is you can’t tag in the underage footy. Unless rules changed. I guess you could put a player on a stoppages etc.
I thought Brown was rated a 2nd or 3rd rounder also. However directly from an oppo club scout, he is perhaps lacking in the skills and decision making department. I have heard his got good speed and toughness. He rated him more a late or rookie selection.
It was great he dominated the B side game. It’ll be interesting to see if he makes the final team for Vic Metro.

Browns biggest strengths is is kicking skills and awareness. He's a left footer who weights his kick perfectly to a teammates advantage. He's evasive as well which gets him out of trouble around stoppages.

I respect your oppo mates opinion but having watched kynan play 3 games this year and 2 last year I would say he couldn't be any further wrong about Browns skills being his weakness.

 

[MartinPrince]

Hopefully you guys get access to him

Riak Andrew
Club: Dandenong Stingrays/Berwick FC/St
Joseph's Regional College
Height: 192em
Weight: 70kg
DOB: 17/02/05 A tall forward or defender, Andrew was showing real potential before suffering a meniscus knee injury which put a line through his entire bottom- age season. Of Sudanese origin, he is the brother of Mac Andrew who was drafted to the Gold Coast
Suns with pick seven in the 2021 national draft. Andrew is a member of Melbourne's Next Generation Academy and looms as a big watch in
2023.

is Riak back from his injuries now?

 

[dazzledavey36]

is Riak back from his injuries now?

Yes, played back at his home club over the weekend as the Coates league had a general bye.

 

[Topkent]

Just having cause to look back over previous drafts, it's an interesting pattern that a lot of the number 1 picks turn out over time to just be the most physically ready to go at 18 and then as their careers progress they revert back towards the mean.

Swallow, Rowell, McGrath, Rayner, Horne-Francis of the mids all probably looked a lot better because at 17 than maybe they deserved to because they were more physically developed than their counterparts. Most of that group really jumped out of the gates in their first few games but as time goes on they started to look a bit more average. Plus you've got Boyd, Patton, McCartin - can even include Hogan in that category - who were just big units who nobody could go with in the u/18s. Time will tell whether Ugle-Hagan and Cadman are in that category too.

It's a bit like racehorses, the expensive Golden Slipper types tend to be the ones ready to race straight away but not the ones who go on to be champions. Since 1981 you've really only got Hodge and Riewoldt in 2000 and 2001 of the number 1 picks who went on to become champions.

Arguments kinda going in circles though, probably never been anyone who's gone at 16 better than Hodge or Riewoldt.

Plus most of the number 1 picks who have failed yes I agree some are definitely physically more mature. Scully and Rowell 2 that stand out, but also they generally go into the worst team in the league and are expected to be the saviour. Look at how Daicos and Ashcroft have gone being able to play in systems that are developed. Reid would be much better in the long term if he plays for us