List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[markm106]

WC will want more than 4 and 15. We’ll be throwing in next years first and even then they’d probably be wanting a higher pick than we’d be projected.
The thing with Reid is he is a physical player. He’s ready to go. We’ll have a crack at it because we’re in the window and sounds like he could have an impact pretty early on. Also gives WC a chance to get Curtain.
If WC don’t trade we still have a decent draft hand too. Freos first will land won of the top talents this year.

 

[Topkent]

WC will want more than 4 and 15. We’ll be throwing in next years first and even then they’d probably be wanting a higher pick than we’d be projected.
The thing with Reid is he is a physical player. He’s ready to go. We’ll have a crack at it because we’re in the window and sounds like he could have an impact pretty early on. Also gives WC a chance to get Curtain.
If WC don’t trade we still have a decent draft hand too. Freos first will land won of the top talents this year.

Im not sure WC will ask only for picks. They'll absolutely sniff around Mcvee, Rivers and JVR.

 

[danster168]

I would say that there is a clear top 8 in the open pool.
- Reid, McKercher, Watson, Duursma, Sanders, Curtin, Caddy, Connor O'Sullivan.

I think West Coast take 3 firsts. But I'm not even sure that I'd want that. I'm leaning towards a Watson/Duursma and having 2 the first rounders than using it all on Reid. It's a good position to be in.

 

[Tulip]

Im not sure WC will ask only for picks. They'll absolutely sniff around Mcvee, Rivers and JVR.

All signed contracts in the past 12 months, don't think West Coast will think they're a chance.

 

[BaliDemon]

WC will want more than 4 and 15. We’ll be throwing in next years first and even then they’d probably be wanting a higher pick than we’d be projected.

Pressure works both ways. WC can sit there and demand the world for Reid but at the end of the day they face recruiting a kid who’s actively flagging his intention to walk out on them after 24 months.

 

[Topkent]

All signed contracts in the past 12 months, don't think West Coast will think they're a chance.

Not that I think they'll get them, but contacts are worth a piece of piss these days

 

[The Dr]

I would say that there is a clear top 8 in the open pool.
- Reid, McKercher, Watson, Duursma, Sanders, Curtin, Caddy, Connor O'Sullivan.

I think West Coast take 3 firsts. But I'm not even sure that I'd want that. I'm leaning towards a Watson/Duursma and having 2 the first rounders than using it all on Reid. It's a good position to be in.

I agree. A Watson/Duursma combo (or similar) would be a dream, and less risky than going for one player whose U18 champs weren't that far above everyone else.

I'd also love to grab a couple of ready-to-go mid-career players with our later picks too, like Sam Flanders, Jake Ricciardi, Mitch Georgiadis etc.

The outgoings will be just as interesting. Will Jordon/Harmes/Dunstan move on? Will one of T Mac or Brown pull the pin? Will Hibberd and Melk be given one more year?


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[Lampers]

Im not sure WC will ask only for picks. They'll absolutely sniff around Mcvee, Rivers and JVR.

While all the talk is about draft pick deals, I agree if Melbourne are really serious about getting Reid then I think it’s highly likely Melbourne will lose one of these players.

West Coast need young talent and those guys are already proven to be that.

I’d argue each of those players is worth more than Melbourne’s likely native round 1 picks this year and next which should be in the 15+ range.

As supporters we might have an emotional attachment to them.

Carlton pushed out Josh Kennedy against his will (and I’m guessing contracted) in the Judd deal.

It happens.

How I see it playing out is Melbourne try to improve their draft hand irrespective of what WC are doing.

Assume ladder positions remain the same. If Melbourne win the premiership or Gold Coast has a strong finish it changes quite a bit of the below.

Melbourne will 100% be trying to get Gold Coast’s first pick (currently 5) as GC definitey will trade that for more points made up from later picks. This is because of their academy selections.

Pick 5 is worth 1878. Melbourne could trade picks 15 and 23 which add up to more value than pick 5. Other clubs may offer something better to GC though. Melbourne could throw in 34 as well but ask for a Flanders or Hollands back as well as pick 4. That helps GC with any salary cap problems too.

Assume GC go for something Melbourne offers and Melbourne now have picks 4, 5 and their 2024 first round pick.

Melbourne now have to decide if they prefer Reid to what they can be very confident of getting with picks 4 and 5. At that stage they may just decide they prefer the double shot of top talent over Reid.

If Melbourne still want Reid then they probably offer 5 and next year’s first rounder to West Coast for pick 1 as the starting offer and then see what WC want.

WC clearly want much more, so it goes from there. Including potential for one of those three young WA talents.

Whatever happens Melbourne are in a fantastic position.

 

[BaliDemon]

Final offer.

Out: 4, 15 & Rivers

In: 1(Reid) & 36

 

[mores]

Final offer.

Out: 4, 15 & Rivers

In: 1(Reid) & 36

Won't happen

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Thank god GC are idiots and knocked us back, Humphrey looks alright but if we gave a pick 5 this year and our first last year and this year for pick 6 we'd have looked quite foolish.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Won't happen

It doesnt matter what you think the club will do what they want to do.

 

[BaliDemon]

Won't happen

Jason Taylor welcome to BigFooty. Didn’t know it was you sorry.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

While all the talk is about draft pick deals, I agree if Melbourne are really serious about getting Reid then I think it’s highly likely Melbourne will lose one of these players.

West Coast need young talent and those guys are already proven to be that.

I’d argue each of those players is worth more than Melbourne’s likely native round 1 picks this year and next which should be in the 15+ range.

As supporters we might have an emotional attachment to them.

Carlton pushed out Josh Kennedy against his will (and I’m guessing contracted) in the Judd deal.

It happens.

How I see it playing out is Melbourne try to improve their draft hand irrespective of what WC are doing.

Assume ladder positions remain the same. If Melbourne win the premiership or Gold Coast has a strong finish it changes quite a bit of the below.

Melbourne will 100% be trying to get Gold Coast’s first pick (currently 5) as GC definitey will trade that for more points made up from later picks. This is because of their academy selections.

Pick 5 is worth 1878. Melbourne could trade picks 15 and 23 which add up to more value than pick 5. Other clubs may offer something better to GC though. Melbourne could throw in 34 as well but ask for a Flanders or Hollands back as well as pick 4. That helps GC with any salary cap problems too.

Assume GC go for something Melbourne offers and Melbourne now have picks 4, 5 and their 2024 first round pick.

Melbourne now have to decide if they prefer Reid to what they can be very confident of getting with picks 4 and 5. At that stage they may just decide they prefer the double shot of top talent over Reid.

If Melbourne still want Reid then they probably offer 5 and next year’s first rounder to West Coast for pick 1 as the starting offer and then see what WC want.

WC clearly want much more, so it goes from there. Including potential for one of those three young WA talents.

Whatever happens Melbourne are in a fantastic position.

I did a ladder predictor last night, dont think I had GC winning a game for the rest of the year sadly and finishing with pick 4. Freo's draw much easier. Think they still have both West Coast and Norf to come. They end up at pick 5 still. That game last night was huge coz I had Sydney at pick 6 just 4 points ahead of them.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Also in my ladder predictor, Dees finish equal with the Lions on 68 points and miss out on 3rd, 0.2% difference

 

[The Dr]

Thank god GC are idiots and knocked us back, Humphrey looks alright but if we gave a pick 5 this year and our first last year and this year for pick 6 we'd have looked quite foolish.

Therein lies the danger of going super hard with multiple first rounders for one kid


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[Headless]

Also in my ladder predictor, Dees finish equal with the Lions on 68 points and miss out on 3rd, 0.2% difference

Have you considered changing your predictions?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Have you considered changing your predictions?

I was very generous with us. Predicted us to win all our games for the rest of the year and gave us a 10 goal win vs Hawthorn and 90 point win again vs Norf. In reality we dont get as close as I predicted.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Therein lies the danger of going super hard with multiple first rounders for one kid


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GC obviously thought Freo were ~ a top 4 team. Idiots. If the trade is 3 picks 14+ I can understand knocking it back but Freo going to shit this year was always a decent possibility. Horrible projections by the people in charge, that trade could have really set them up well.

 

[Headless]

I was very generous with us. Predicted us to win all our games for the rest of the year and gave us a 10 goal win vs Hawthorn and 90 point win again vs Norf. In reality we dont get as close as I predicted.

Have you considered being even more generous?

Generouser, if you will?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Have you considered being even more generous?

Generouser, if you will?

I have given as much as I can give Les, I cannot possibly give any more.

 

[Headless]

I have given as much as I can give Les, I cannot possibly give any more.

I've always said you're the most generous poster on this board.

The generousest, if you will.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I've always said you're the most generous poster on this board.

The generousest, if you will.

Yes, ive seen you say that quite often, I appreciate it very much.

 

[Bluelegs]

While all the talk is about draft pick deals, I agree if Melbourne are really serious about getting Reid then I think it’s highly likely Melbourne will lose one of these players.

West Coast need young talent and those guys are already proven to be that.

I’d argue each of those players is worth more than Melbourne’s likely native round 1 picks this year and next which should be in the 15+ range.

As supporters we might have an emotional attachment to them.

Carlton pushed out Josh Kennedy against his will (and I’m guessing contracted) in the Judd deal.

It happens.

How I see it playing out is Melbourne try to improve their draft hand irrespective of what WC are doing.

Assume ladder positions remain the same. If Melbourne win the premiership or Gold Coast has a strong finish it changes quite a bit of the below.

Melbourne will 100% be trying to get Gold Coast’s first pick (currently 5) as GC definitey will trade that for more points made up from later picks. This is because of their academy selections.

Pick 5 is worth 1878. Melbourne could trade picks 15 and 23 which add up to more value than pick 5. Other clubs may offer something better to GC though. Melbourne could throw in 34 as well but ask for a Flanders or Hollands back as well as pick 4. That helps GC with any salary cap problems too.

Assume GC go for something Melbourne offers and Melbourne now have picks 4, 5 and their 2024 first round pick.

Melbourne now have to decide if they prefer Reid to what they can be very confident of getting with picks 4 and 5. At that stage they may just decide they prefer the double shot of top talent over Reid.

If Melbourne still want Reid then they probably offer 5 and next year’s first rounder to West Coast for pick 1 as the starting offer and then see what WC want.

WC clearly want much more, so it goes from there. Including potential for one of those three young WA talents.

Whatever happens Melbourne are in a fantastic position.

There are some decent KPD prospects at the top end of the draft. If we've got 4 and 5 I wouldn't be trading that. Unless Reid is a guarantee to be the best player of this generation then two high quality for needs players are going to take us further.

 

[Bluelegs]

It doesnt matter what you think the club will do what they want to do.

WHy don't we all wait for the draft and trade period where the decision will be made.