List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

WHy don't we all wait for the draft and trade period where the decision will be made.

Yes, why dont we?

 

[Bluelegs]

GC obviously thought Freo were ~ a top 4 team. Idiots. If the trade is 3 picks 14+ I can understand knocking it back but Freo going to s**t this year was always a decent possibility. Horrible projections by the people in charge, that trade could have really set them up well.

They may have seen it as a bit pointless to have those high end picks with all the academy kids coming through. Probably don't get much value for themselves in that trade.

 

[Tulip]

While all the talk is about draft pick deals, I agree if Melbourne are really serious about getting Reid then I think it’s highly likely Melbourne will lose one of these players.

West Coast need young talent and those guys are already proven to be that.

I’d argue each of those players is worth more than Melbourne’s likely native round 1 picks this year and next which should be in the 15+ range.

As supporters we might have an emotional attachment to them.

Carlton pushed out Josh Kennedy against his will (and I’m guessing contracted) in the Judd deal.

It happens.

How I see it playing out is Melbourne try to improve their draft hand irrespective of what WC are doing.

Assume ladder positions remain the same. If Melbourne win the premiership or Gold Coast has a strong finish it changes quite a bit of the below.

Melbourne will 100% be trying to get Gold Coast’s first pick (currently 5) as GC definitey will trade that for more points made up from later picks. This is because of their academy selections.

Pick 5 is worth 1878. Melbourne could trade picks 15 and 23 which add up to more value than pick 5. Other clubs may offer something better to GC though. Melbourne could throw in 34 as well but ask for a Flanders or Hollands back as well as pick 4. That helps GC with any salary cap problems too.

Assume GC go for something Melbourne offers and Melbourne now have picks 4, 5 and their 2024 first round pick.

Melbourne now have to decide if they prefer Reid to what they can be very confident of getting with picks 4 and 5. At that stage they may just decide they prefer the double shot of top talent over Reid.

If Melbourne still want Reid then they probably offer 5 and next year’s first rounder to West Coast for pick 1 as the starting offer and then see what WC want.

WC clearly want much more, so it goes from there. Including potential for one of those three young WA talents.

Whatever happens Melbourne are in a fantastic position.

Carlton traded Kennedy because they didn't want to lose their priority pick, which was what the Eagles had asked for. 1+3 for Judd. Given they'd tanked to win the Kreuzer Cup, they were never giving him up, so they decided they'd rather lose some young talent.

I see where you're coming from, but I think we're in the opposite position. We won't want to lose the young talent we have, particularly after losing Jackson, but will be willing to trade our significant draft haul.

 

[danster168]

While all the talk is about draft pick deals, I agree if Melbourne are really serious about getting Reid then I think it’s highly likely Melbourne will lose one of these players.

West Coast need young talent and those guys are already proven to be that.

I’d argue each of those players is worth more than Melbourne’s likely native round 1 picks this year and next which should be in the 15+ range.

As supporters we might have an emotional attachment to them.

Carlton pushed out Josh Kennedy against his will (and I’m guessing contracted) in the Judd deal.

It happens.

How I see it playing out is Melbourne try to improve their draft hand irrespective of what WC are doing.

Assume ladder positions remain the same. If Melbourne win the premiership or Gold Coast has a strong finish it changes quite a bit of the below.

Melbourne will 100% be trying to get Gold Coast’s first pick (currently 5) as GC definitey will trade that for more points made up from later picks. This is because of their academy selections.

Pick 5 is worth 1878. Melbourne could trade picks 15 and 23 which add up to more value than pick 5. Other clubs may offer something better to GC though. Melbourne could throw in 34 as well but ask for a Flanders or Hollands back as well as pick 4. That helps GC with any salary cap problems too.

Assume GC go for something Melbourne offers and Melbourne now have picks 4, 5 and their 2024 first round pick.

Melbourne now have to decide if they prefer Reid to what they can be very confident of getting with picks 4 and 5. At that stage they may just decide they prefer the double shot of top talent over Reid.

If Melbourne still want Reid then they probably offer 5 and next year’s first rounder to West Coast for pick 1 as the starting offer and then see what WC want.

WC clearly want much more, so it goes from there. Including potential for one of those three young WA talents.

Whatever happens Melbourne are in a fantastic position.

The points system is deeply flawed though. No club would give up pick 5 for pick 15 and 23. Last year is proof of this. Melbourne offered 3 first rounders for Essendon's pick 5 and it was still knocked back.

 

[Lampers]

The points system is deeply flawed though. No club would give up pick 5 for pick 15 and 23. Last year is proof of this. Melbourne offered 3 first rounders for Essendon's pick 5 and it was still knocked back.

Essendon rejected that deal because had a real player (or players) in mind that they could use that pick 5 for. Points make less sense in that scenario.

With Gold Coast there is no player they can have in mind because their first pick will get swallowed by the Jed Walter bid if they keep it. Their trade of the first pick will be only about points because that’s what they need, so any points above what their first pick is rated is a win. Draft picks as actual draft picks are useless to GC this year.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

The points system is deeply flawed though. No club would give up pick 5 for pick 15 and 23. Last year is proof of this. Melbourne offered 3 first rounders for Essendon's pick 5 and it was still knocked back.

Difference being Walter is bid on before there pick so they don’t get to use it this year.

 

[danster168]

Difference being Walter is bid on before there pick so they don’t get to use it this year.

Yeah that's true. There's a bit of pressure for them to trade their pick.

 

[danster168]

Essendon rejected that deal because had a real player (or players) in mind that they could use that pick 5 for. Points make less sense in that scenario.

With Gold Coast there is no player they can have in mind because their first pick will get swallowed by the Jed Walter bid if they keep it. Their trade of the first pick will be only about points because that’s what they need, so any points above what their first pick is rated is a win. Draft picks as actual draft picks are useless to GC this year.

You reckon WCE would want pick 4 and 5 (gold coast's pick) if we ended up with both of those picks for Reid?

 

[Lampers]

Carlton traded Kennedy because they didn't want to lose their priority pick, which was what the Eagles had asked for. 1+3 for Judd. Given they'd tanked to win the Kreuzer Cup, they were never giving him up, so they decided they'd rather lose some young talent.

I see where you're coming from, but I think we're in the opposite position. We won't want to lose the young talent we have, particularly after losing Jackson, but will be willing to trade our significant draft haul.

Maybe. I think Melbourne has got lots of solid looking youth, but no obvious potential gun at a while of league level younger than Pickett.

If Harley Reid is truly a Judd or Petracca or Martin generational style player, then losing some young talent is a price that Melbourne would be willing to pay. If WC demand it.

As good as JvR, Rivers or McVee look to me they project to be 5-15th player picked in the Melbourne team quality. So 50-300 range players at a league level.

If Reid projects to be a 1-5 type player in the whole league it’s a no brainer (IMO).

We are all just guessing. Taylor and co. may think Reid is massively overrated.

 

[Lampers]

You reckon, WCE would want pick 4 and 5 (gold coast's pick) if we ended up with both of those picks for Reid?

Having both pick 4 and 5 would virtually guarantee them Curtin as the best WA talent plus another top end player. Two very pointy end players vs. just one has got to at least get them thinking. I think they’d still ask for more though.

 

[schmuttt]

Anything more than 4 and 5 for Reid is too much imo

 

[Tulip]

You reckon WCE would want pick 4 and 5 (gold coast's pick) if we ended up with both of those picks for Reid?

Could see 4, 5 and next year's #1 getting it done, with maybe their 3rd coming back with Reid.

 

[Bluelegs]

Could see 4, 5 and next year's #1 getting it done, with maybe their 3rd coming back with Reid.

Two top 5 picks and another first rounder is crazy. The gold coast pick would cost us at least our first and freos second.

Basically trading four picks inside 25 for one player.

 

[danster168]

Could see 4, 5 and next year's #1 getting it done, with maybe their 3rd coming back with Reid.

that is way over the top. picks 4 and 5 is a lot. There's no way dees give up more than that. unless it's an irrelevant pick like a future 2nd or something.

 

[BaliDemon]

Two top 5 picks and another first rounder is crazy. The gold coast pick would cost us at least our first and freos second.

Basically trading four picks inside 25 for one player.

Two top 5 picks is already a big punt for an untried/untested no.1 pick.

The %age of No.1 picks who actually live up to the hype would be somewhere around 30%. Even if you double that likelihood with Reid it’s still a significant gamble.

4, 15 and Rivers or McVee with a second rounder coming back is a much more sound and responsible offer. Again, they face the kid walking out on them Horne-Francis style after 24 months. Let them sweat on it.

Not that different to us having to let Jackson walk for less than we wanted due to him wanting out. Harley Reid has effectively stated he’ll be heading home to Vic 24 months after WC draft him. That’s a shaky poker hand to be sitting on.

 

[Bluelegs]

Two top 5 picks is already a big punt for an untried/untested no.1 pick.

The %age of No.1 picks who actually live up to the hype would be somewhere around 30%. Even if you double that likelihood with Reid it’s still a significant gamble.

4, 15 and Rivers or McVee with a second rounder coming back is a much more sound and responsible offer. Again, they face the kid walking out on them Horne-Francis style after 24 months. Let them sweat on it.

Not that different to us having to let Jackson walk for less than we wanted due to him wanting out. Harley Reid has effectively stated he wants out of WC before they even draft him. That’s a shaky poker hand to be sitting on.

I tend to agree, even the players who live up to the hype are rarely that much better than the other guys around them. Walsh and Rowell come to mind. There's always hype about the next generational player but that generational players are just that. They don't come around that often.

If we can get the pick off Gold Coast I'd pitch it for Barrass but if that doesn't work I'd just take it to the draft.

 

[Obeanie1]

Could see 4, 5 and next year's #1 getting it done, with maybe their 3rd coming back with Reid.

Freo dropping like a stone has gifted Melbourne a real opportunity.

Future picks after the top 5 - 10 start adding 5 with all the ngs's and father sons going early next year.

Barrass trade to Swans may land a pick this year plus a F2nd.

Eagles: Pick 1 plus Swans F2nd

Melbourne: 4, 5 and Dees F1st.

Can hear both sides not being happy with that!

 

[schmuttt]

Freo dropping like a stone has gifted Melbourne a real opportunity.

Future picks after the top 5 - 10 start adding 5 with all the ngs's and father sons going early next year.

Barrass trade to Swans may land a pick this year plus a F2nd.

Eagles: Pick 1 plus Swans F2nd

Melbourne: 4, 5 and Dees F1st.

Can hear both sides not being happy with that!

I'd probably be tempted to do this as you'd expect us to have a later pick next year. Might want a slight upgrade on that 2nd round pick though as Sydney should be better in 2024.

 

[I Love Lamb]

Freo dropping like a stone has gifted Melbourne a real opportunity.

Future picks after the top 5 - 10 start adding 5 with all the ngs's and father sons going early next year.

Barrass trade to Swans may land a pick this year plus a F2nd.

Eagles: Pick 1 plus Swans F2nd

Melbourne: 4, 5 and Dees F1st.

Can hear both sides not being happy with that!

No way, this is a 3 pick upgrade we are talking about here. From pick 4 to 1.

I would rather us take 2 of Curtin/Caddy or Duursma with 4/5. Let alone throw in another F1st

That’s Freo level of bad trading to give up that much. An additional 2 first rounders to basically go from pick 4 to pick 1 is a no from me.

 

[Obeanie1]

No way, this is a 3 pick upgrade we are talking about here. From pick 4 to 1.

I would rather us take 2 of Curtin/Caddy or Duursma with 4/5. Let alone throw in another F1st

That’s Freo level of bad trading to give up that much. An additional 2 first rounders to basically go from pick 4 to pick 1 is a no from me.

Understand this view. Many have it.

Then again pick 4 is half the Jackson trade.

15 plus 30 ish gets you 5.

The F1st is a pick downgrade to a F2nd.

After player 3 theelite talent falls away. To draft the best to need to pay up.

Im hoping we keep 1 and use it and bring is some other 1sts.

 

[pjfairbairn]

I still reckon a hail mary at Oscar Allen

4

Oscar Allen

Age

26

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.2

4star

is worth it.

 

[Topkent]

I still reckon a hail mary at Oscar Allen is worth it.

And just give up on the midfield ya reckon?

 

[I Love Lamb]

Freo dropping like a stone has gifted Melbourne a real opportunity.

Future picks after the top 5 - 10 start adding 5 with all the ngs's and father sons going early next year.

Barrass trade to Swans may land a pick this year plus a F2nd.

Eagles: Pick 1 plus Swans F2nd

Melbourne: 4, 5 and Dees F1st.

Can hear both sides not being happy with that!

Yeah nah, not sold on it. Could be another Cam Rayner in the big league for all we know or one ACL away from a few years off.

I can tell you aren’t sold on pick 1 either hence why you are here trying to offload P1

 

[Demon13304]

Wait, I heard that Harley Reid wanting to go back to Victoria was just bullshit

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I can tell you aren’t sold on pick 1 either hence why you are here trying to offload P1

I live for these big footy negotiations.