List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[samcantstandya]

Loved reading that Scythe94!

Darcy Wilson starts coming into play with our first don't you reckon?

I agree roughly with your top order although I can see us taking O’Sullivan ahead of Sanders at this point.

Not a fan of Wilson. There are better options than him.

 

[Undisputed]

Thoughts on trading pick 5 on draft night to gold coast once it’s our selection. See if we can get two future first rounders off them. They still get their three Academy players plus another top 7 pick. We can go into 2024 with more pics and move up the draft board in a less impacted year

 

[Demon 16]

Not a fan of Wilson. There are better options than him.

I like him but yes the consensus is that he sits highly in the tier that starts a little after our first pick.

It would be a terrible result to have pick 5 and essentially end up with a midfielder who sits around the pick 15 mark on most boards - but we won’t be far away from it unfortunately!

 

[BaliDemon]

I think Wilson will certainly be considered, though I imagine he's just below Sanders and O'Sullivan at this point.

Fair point re O'Sullivan v Sanders. I'm just thinking that if we end up with Pick 10, Murphy is a pretty good KPD substitution (doesn't have O'Sullivan's intercept/attacking game, but might be a better lockdown type). Suppose it would depend on whether the club preferred a Sanders/Murphy combo, or a O'Sullivan and maybe Windsor combo. I probably don't know enough about Windsor to have a strong opinion either way.

I lean towards O’Sullivan at our first pick then best available mid at pick 10 if we have it.

To my amateur eye there’s a decent gulf in the quality of O’Sullivan and Murphy. The former looks a key position talent too good to pass up.

Sanders looks good but I’d be okay taking a couple of slightly lesser rated midfielders at 10 & 13. Still should be decent players if developed well.

5, 10 & 13 also makes a McKercher play possible if we feel - like we did with Clarry in 2015 - he’d be worth it. 5 & 10 for 3 & change would certainly have North sitting down to think about it.

 

[BaliDemon]

Levi Casboult

30

Levi Casboult

Age

35

Ht

199cm

Wt

104kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

6.5

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.7

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.1

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

5.9

5star

T

1.3

2star

G

1.3

5star

D

9.2

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

5.2

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.4

5star

has played 41 of a possible 44 games for the Suns since crossing there from Carlton. Also kicked 35 odd goals in 2022 and 25 odd this season.

Durable, capable, no frills potential key forward option if we feel that JVR and Petty need aerial support in 2024. Probably won’t get games at Gold Coast with these new young KPP’s arriving, particularly if Chol stays put.

I just can’t believe that we’d go into another season in a premiership window thinking our key forward stocks are going to be good enough to win the flag. Surely not?

Casboult wouldn’t have me throwing a party but it’s something. He’s a more than capable ruck forward of centre, too. Can certainly clunk them and his goal kicking accuracy has improved over the years.

 

[Alpine Lodger]

I lean towards O’Sullivan at our first pick then best available mid at pick 10 if we have it.

To my amateur eye there’s a decent gulf in the quality of O’Sullivan and Murphy. The former looks a key position talent too good to pass up.

Sanders looks good but I’d be okay taking a couple of slightly lesser rated midfielders at 10 & 13. Still should be decent players if developed well.

5, 10 & 13 also makes a McKercher play possible if we feel - like we did with Clarry in 2015 - he’d be worth it. 5 & 10 for 3 & change would certainly have North sitting down to think about it.

Is there a chance that North Melbourne who in theory could possess picks 2,3 (McKay comp),4 by draft night with their trading of their later 1st rd picks (as flagged by Jimmy Bartel on Footy Classified), take a swing at O'Sullivan with one of these early picks to fill the void left by the criminally overrated Ben McKay?

Clarkson has hinted that this draft is too much of a midfielders draft to suit their overall needs regardless of their favorable draft hand. This leads me to believe that the Kangas will have their eyes on O'Sullivan. Annoying if so, as ideally McKercher and O'Sullivan would be perfect for our needs.

 

[ABray10]

Is there a chance that North Melbourne who in theory could possess picks 2,3 (McKay comp),4 by draft night with their trading of their later 1st rd picks (as flagged by Jimmy Bartel on Footy Classified), take a swing at O'Sullivan with one of these early picks to fill the void left by the criminally overrated Ben McKay?

Clarkson has hinted that this draft is too much of a midfielders draft to suit their overall needs regardless of their favorable draft hand. This leads me to believe that the Kangas will have their eyes on O'Sullivan. Annoying if so, as ideally McKercher and O'Sullivan would be perfect for our needs.

I have wondered if they could trade pick 3 to Goldy for 5 and their first next year and an agreement not to bid on Walter. Could have their picks of the smalls and then take O'Sullivan while stockpiling an additional pick next year. Gold Coast get a top prospect before their 3 academy kids who start to cost less points wise and with 4 good inclusions look for a sustained finals run.

Other option is using 2 plus their 2 x bonus picks next year to trade up with Eagles. Solidifies those next year picks and gets them Reid. Eagles take their WA kid and get two additional end of first round picks next year to continue what will no doubt be a long rebuild. Or can use them as valuable trade chips.

 

[Demon 16]

Is there a chance that North Melbourne who in theory could possess picks 2,3 (McKay comp),4 by draft night with their trading of their later 1st rd picks (as flagged by Jimmy Bartel on Footy Classified), take a swing at O'Sullivan with one of these early picks to fill the void left by the criminally overrated Ben McKay?

Clarkson has hinted that this draft is too much of a midfielders draft to suit their overall needs regardless of their favorable draft hand. This leads me to believe that the Kangas will have their eyes on O'Sullivan. Annoying if so, as ideally McKercher and O'Sullivan would be perfect for our needs.

If they want a tall defender then they can take Daniel Curtin who is rated higher than O’Sullivan.

I’ve read that if they only had the 1 pick they would almost certainly take Curtin.

 

[Blackas87]

If they want a tall defender then they can take Daniel Curtin who is rated higher than O’Sullivan.

I’ve read that if they only had the 1 pick they would almost certainly take Curtin.

Does North want to take an interstate player after what happened with Horne-Francis?

 

[BaliDemon]

Is there a chance that North Melbourne who in theory could possess picks 2,3 (McKay comp),4 by draft night with their trading of their later 1st rd picks (as flagged by Jimmy Bartel on Footy Classified), take a swing at O'Sullivan with one of these early picks to fill the void left by the criminally overrated Ben McKay?

Clarkson has hinted that this draft is too much of a midfielders draft to suit their overall needs regardless of their favorable draft hand. This leads me to believe that the Kangas will have their eyes on O'Sullivan. Annoying if so, as ideally McKercher and O'Sullivan would be perfect for our needs.

Definitely a possibility.
Key talls early in the draft (Buddy & Roughy) was a central plank in Clarkson’s Hawks dynasty, so although O’Sullivan isn’t a key forward he’s still a key bookend in defence. Would not surprise me at all if North go in that direction, particularly if they have 2, 3 AND 4.

They might consider their current midfield stocks sufficient to take both Curtin and O’Sullivan and one of Duursma or McKercher. Pretty nice position to be in.

Curtin is listed at 195cm. O’Sullivan the slightly taller lad at 198cm. There’s your FB and CHB combo sorted for the next 12 years.

 

[Demon 16]

Does North want to take an interstate player after what happened with Horne-Francis?

Will be interesting to see but if they do end up with 2, 3 & 4 then surely they back themselves to retain an interstate kid.

If it’s only 2 or 2 & 3 then I would be surprised if they reached for O’Sullivan when McKercher and Duursma are there.

Would be a strange look if they pass on Curtin and take O’Sullivan.

 

[danster168]

If we did end up with say 5, 10, 13. Who would you consider with them picks. The best available at 5 then maybe Caddy and O’Sullivan?

Both Caddy and O Sullivan will be gone by pick 10. let alone both being available there. Let alone one being there at pick 13. O'Sullivan could be taken at pick 5. I think you need to temper your expectations. Probably only one of those 3 would be possible.

 

[BaliDemon]

How’d you be being a middle of the road side who’ve had little success in the past 12 - 20 years (St Kilda, Essendon, Freo) watching North stockpile this degree of top shelf talent? I’ve got no sympathy for Essendon and never will but the other two - can understand more now why they are so ropable.

Mid-ladder mediocrity (7th - 13th) is the death zone in the AFL.

 

[danster168]

I'll have a stab at how it could play out:

1. Reid (WC)
2. Walter (GC match)
3. Curtin (North)
4. McKercher (North)
5. Duursma (Hawthorn)
6. Watson (Bulldogs from GC)
7. Read (GC match)
8. Sanders (Melbourne)
9. O'Sullivan (GWS)
10. Caddy (Geelong)
11. Wilson (Essendon)
12. Rogers (GC match)
13. Croft (Bulldogs match)
14. Leake (Adelaide)
15. Murphy (Melbourne)
16. Windsor (Sydney)
17. De Mattia (St Kilda)
18. Hardeman/Roberts (Melbourne)

Just typing this, it's wild how far the picks will blow out. Could go even further if McCabe (Hawthorn FS) goes in this range.

To be clear, the picks that weren't Melbourne's aren't really selected with clubs' needs in mind, more just the range they're expected to go.

Regarding Melbourne's picks – I'll start off by saying Sanders isn't ideal as he's yet another contested animal with not great foot skills (everyone probably knows how much I want McKercher). At least he'd allow us some more flexibility with moving Trac forward etc in future.

If we can't trade up for McKercher, I feel like we almost have to take Sanders though, as we really need to bring in high level midfield talent as it might be a while before we pick this high again. I really like O'Sullivan, but if we got pick 10, I'd be more comfortable passing him up as Ollie Murphy will be there as a big, lockdown KPD a couple of picks later.

For our third pick, I like both Hardeman and Roberts as attacking half-backs with good foot skills who can set up play behind the ball.

Gee I hope we don't get Sanders. I don't think he'll make it as an afl footballer. terrible by hand too. Makes poor decisions

 

[BaliDemon]

Dogs trading up for the Suns pick 4 to take a midget small forward is weird (if that rumour is true). Especially given as someone pointed out the issues they have in defence.

Watson scares me the most out of any kid touted to go in that top 10. 170cm and a few recent reports of quietish outings in some U/18 finals matches.

 

[Scythe]

Gee I hope we don't get Sanders. I don't think he'll make it as an afl footballer. terrible by hand too. Makes poor decisions

I'd argue he's one of the safer bets in the draft actually. There's a reason he won the Larke Medal (averaging 36 touches and a goal a game) and led the Dragons to the flag in the Talent League (averaging around 32 touches per game). Natural accumulator who does good work inside. Those sort of nuggety inside players usually transfer to the top level better than flakier outside types.

I don't particularly want him as he's similar to what we already have, but I have next to no doubt he'll be a good player at AFL level.

 

[danster168]

I'd argue he's one of the safer bets in the draft actually. There's a reason he won the Larke Medal (averaging 36 touches and a goal a game) and led the Dragons to the flag in the Talent league (averaging around 32 touches per game). Natural accumulator who does good work inside. Those sort of nuggety inside players usually transfer to the top level better than flakier outside types.

I don't particularly want him as he's similar to what we already have, but I have next to no doubt he'll be a good player at AFL level.

I hope you're right. But I've seen 5 compilation videos and I've rarely see him do anything good in those. He looks like a Rhys Palmer to me. Pick 7 in the draft, ready-made, won the larke medal too from memory. Finds heap of the footy. And then delisted within 5 years.

 

[TheBoss]

Are Blake Howes and Daniel Turner good enough to be permanent fixtures of our backline next season?

We need cover for Hibberd, and someone else to step up so that we can have Rivers play exclusively in the middle.

 

[Dory_77]

Are Blake Howes and Daniel Turner good enough to be permanent fixtures of our backline next season?

We need cover for Hibberd, and someone else to step up so that we can have Rivers play exclusively in the middle.

Turner maybe, Howes no (as an actual defender, maybe as a running HBF?) from my limited VFL viewing.
Lampers could give a more informed view.

 

[jhong]

Are Blake Howes and Daniel Turner good enough to be permanent fixtures of our backline next season?

We need cover for Hibberd, and someone else to step up so that we can have Rivers play exclusively in the middle.

Both different type of players than Hibberd. Both tall and rangy ( skinny) , Turner more like Lever and Howes a winger who I suspect got moved down back as part education, part due to the needs of Casey .

 

[space_cowboy]

Is there a chance that North Melbourne who in theory could possess picks 2,3 (McKay comp),4 by draft night with their trading of their later 1st rd picks (as flagged by Jimmy Bartel on Footy Classified), take a swing at O'Sullivan with one of these early picks to fill the void left by the criminally overrated Ben McKay?

Clarkson has hinted that this draft is too much of a midfielders draft to suit their overall needs regardless of their favorable draft hand. This leads me to believe that the Kangas will have their eyes on O'Sullivan. Annoying if so, as ideally McKercher and O'Sullivan would be perfect for our needs.

I would think that North would trade pick 3 to us for pick 5 and 13. They could then trade their pick 2 and 13 to WC for pick 1.

WC would still be guaranteed to get their man as well as have an additional pick.

North would get Reid and another top 5 pick.

We would get Duursma/McKercher.

We'll have to see what our hand is like after Grundy, Jordan and potentially Harmes are traded.

If we go Ok, we might be able to get pick 4 too, which would give us both Duursma and McKercher!

 

[BaliDemon]

I would think that North would trade pick 3 to us for pick 5 and 13. They could then trade their pick 2 and 13 to WC for pick 1.

WC would still be guaranteed to get their man as well as have an additional pick.

North would get Reid and another top 5 pick.

We would get Duursma/McKercher.

We'll have to see what our hand is like after Grundy, Jordan and potentially Harmes are traded.

If we go Ok, we might be able to get pick 4 too, which would give us both Duursma and McKercher!

WC aren’t giving up Harley Reid for anything less than two picks in the top 5 and even then they’ll be driving a hard bargain. North’s 2 & 3 (McKay compo) might get it done. But maybe not either. That’s how highly that kid is rated. If another club wants him they are going to have to sell off a lot of farm.

Doubtful North would even trade 3 to us for 5 & 13. 5 & 10 more likely.

The top 5 ‘live’ pick kids this year appear to be the absolute cream (Reid, Walter, Curtin, Duursma, McKercher), then it drops to the next tier. There’s an exponentially higher value on those pointy end selections. That’s where you’re far more likely to find your next Bont, Clarry, Judd, Hodge, Dusty, Cotchin, Tracc, Pendlebury, Walsh, N.Anderson and so on. Not a certainty but statistically far more likely.

 

[space_cowboy]

WC aren’t giving up Harley Reid for anything less than two picks in the top 5 and even then they’ll be driving a hard bargain. North’s 2 & 3 (McKay compo) might get it done. But maybe not either. That’s how highly that kid is rated. If another club wants him they are going to have to sell off a lot of farm.

Doubtful North would even trade 3 to us for 5 & 13. 5 & 10 more likely.

The top 5 ‘live’ pick kids this year appear to be the absolute cream (Reid, Walter, Curtin, Duursma, McKercher), then it drops to the next tier. There’s an exponentially higher value on those pointy end selections. That’s where you’re far more likely to find your next Bont, Clarry, Judd, Hodge, Dusty, Cotchin, Tracc, Pendlebury, Walsh, N.Anderson and so on. Not a certainty but statistically far more likely.

Do you really believe that North wouldn't trade pick 1 for 2 & 3?

They want Curtin. Would you give up on a local gun defender and pick 3 for some kid who's only going to demand a trade back to Victoria in a couple of years?

 

[BaliDemon]

Do you really believe that North wouldn't trade pick 1 for 2 & 3?

They want Curtin. Would you give up on a local gun defender and pick 3 for some kid who's only going to demand a trade back to Victoria in a couple of years?

I think you meant to write “do you really believe that West Coast wouldn’t trade pick 1 for 2 & 3”.

It’s not certain. That’s why I posted that it may or may not get it done. Personally I’d do it but WC might have a higher value on Harley Reid than I do. Certainly your opening suggestion of picks 2 & 13 for Reid was way off the radar.

Also, initial contracts for first round picks is now 3 years not 2 years, thereby reducing the risk of interstate draftees wanting out. Even without that change you can’t have your drafting dictated by alleged ‘go home’ factor. You may as well pack up and shut the doors if you’re going to cave in to those fears.

Suggest you don’t post laugh emojis until you’ve thought things through or you’ll just come across as a dolt.

 

[Lampers]

Both different type of players than Hibberd. Both tall and rangy ( skinny) , Turner more like Lever and Howes a winger who I suspect got moved down back as part education, part due to the needs of Casey .

Agree.

Both D.Turner and Howes I think could offer something at AFL level, but at this stage of their development only really in one specific role and there are senior players ahead of them.

Only takes an injury or two (touch wood) and they’d be in playing that one specific role though.

No Jordon, Baker or likely Harmes clogging up wing opportunities anymore for Howes.

Turner would need to put on a tonne of strength to be able to be something more than a rangey 3rd man up interceptor.