Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[DangerousD]

Do GC even have to bid on the big forward?

 

[bmaurizio]

I like Ryley Sanders a quality Mid, 186 cm /85kg great clearance worker has a ability to find space both inside and outside, Darcy Wilson 185cm/73kg plenty of speed & endurance great on a wing. Colby Mckercher Mid 181cm/73kg impressive inside and outside ball magnet. just to name a few
There will be a plethora of quality younsters in top 20, our best outcome would be if we could snare at leat 2 younsters.

 

[murphster]

Regarding recruitment in general , vital, astute selections are most important, we need to upgrade our talent scouts, method of grading & analysis of future young talent.
Our departments just is not clicking , Austin needs better qualified support perhaps. Once identified we then need to upgraded development.
List management is another huge issue lacing , all must to be addressed, otherwise we’ll be left further behind.

Yeah I agree our list management and recruiting needs to be upgraded drastically, however I think our development program under Power, and OKeefe before he left which was a bad loss, is finally in a good place and needs to be nurtured and given as many resources as possible, we are now starting to see more and more VFL talent being considered for senior list spots, or should be in Dozzi and Ramshaws case, and a much more competitive team on the field every week playing a similar structure and style to the senior side.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

I like Ryley Sanders a quality Mid, 186 cm /85kg great clearance worker has a ability to find space both inside and outside, Darcy Wilson 185cm/73kg plenty of speed & endurance great on a wing. Colby Mckercher Mid 181cm/73kg impressive inside and outside ball magnet. just to name a few
There will be a plethora of quality younsters in top 20, our best outcome would be if we could snare at leat 2 younsters.

Darcy Wilson has some really good strengths to his game as you mentioned speed & endurance he has fairly good footy smarts, can win his own ball as well as being a good link up player, i think his decision making needs to improve a bit and his disposal particularly by hand which hasn’t been great from my games/footage watching…

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Caddy kicked 6, Reid kicked 4

Can see why Harley is so highly rated though, seems to have the Dusty trait of the ball seemingly always bouncing in a way that advantages him

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Caddy kicked 6, Reid kicked 4

Can see why Harley is so highly rated though, seems to have the Dusty trait of the ball seemingly always bouncing in a way that advantages him

A weird thing to say but other than kicking the six goals, Caddy made so many errors. You can definitely say that he did well to stay constantly involved but if he’d actually played better they could’ve won by 5-6 goals more.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

A weird thing to say but other than kicking the six goals, Caddy made so many errors. You can definitely say that he did well to stay constantly involved but if he’d actually played better they could’ve won by 5-6 goals more.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I don't worry too much about that stuff. Bailey Humphrey last year was an absolute ball butcher, through the champs especially, but if you can win contested ball and kick goals it overrides the mistakes you made with the ball in hand.

Often those athletic forwards are the dumbest players around, they just rely on natural talent to get them through and start to polish and refine their games once they are playing at a level which no longer allows them to get through on that alone.

Looks a like for like to Charlie at this stage.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Nate Caddy you just stay there u long sleeve wearing handsome devil you

From what I've seen so far in the U18 Champs, Caddy will be a top 5 pick - excluding Walter and Read (I don't count Academy or F/S in the draft order).

Harley Reid is a fait accompli at pick #1 regardless of who holds that pick. Watson, McKercher, Duursma and Caddy the next in line, although the order will probably be dictated by list needs of the clubs who hold those picks. For mine, Curtin sits below those lot - unless WCE trade down their pick #1 and opt for local talent.

There may well be a bolter who rises in the ranks after the Champs, but that's how it probably stands at the moment. Purely from a draft perspective, I'm hoping we get a pick in the top 5, because any one of those would be a handy addition. Couple of classy mid/forwards, a ball magnet zippy mid and a small 'wizard' forward - any one of them an immediate need for us.

From what I gather from the draft experts on the main board, it seems to fall away a bit after that top handful - and also a fair bit of debate on who are in the next tier. Even someone like an Ashton Moir who was touted as a 1st round pick not long ago has fallen in the ranks.

Personally, I'd be selling the farm to try and jag pick #1 from WCE - especially if we get a 1st round pick for TDK. But if we end up winning some games during the remaining games this season and end up with something like pick #8, I wouldn't be averse to splitting the pick to get multiple picks in the top 20 odd.

 

[macky99]

From what I've seen so far in the U18 Champs, Caddy will be a top 5 pick - excluding Walter and Read (I don't count Academy or F/S in the draft order).

Harley Reid is a fait accompli at pick #1 regardless of who holds that pick. Watson, McKercher, Duursma and Caddy the next in line, although the order will probably be dictated by list needs of the clubs who hold those picks. For mine, Curtin sits below those lot - unless WCE trade down their pick #1 and opt for local talent.

There may well be a bolter who rises in the ranks after the Champs, but that's how it probably stands at the moment. Purely from a draft perspective, I'm hoping we get a pick in the top 5, because any one of those would be a handy addition. Couple of classy mid/forwards, a ball magnet zippy mid and a small 'wizard' forward - any one of them an immediate need for us.

From what I gather from the draft experts on the main board, it seems to fall away a bit after that top handful - and also a fair bit of debate on who are in the next tier. Even someone like an Ashton Moir who was touted as a 1st round pick not long ago has fallen in the ranks.

Personally, I'd be selling the farm to try and jag pick #1 from WCE - especially if we get a 1st round pick for TDK. But if we end up winning some games during the remaining games this season and end up with something like pick #8, I wouldn't be averse to splitting the pick to get multiple picks in the top 20 odd.

The 1st 8-10 in the draft look to have some real quality, more likely we would be trying to gain a extra early pick rather than splitting our pick & dropping down the order.

 

[Sickblue]

The 1st 8-10 in the draft look to have some real quality, more likely we would be trying to gain a extra early pick rather than splitting our pick & dropping down the order.

Completely agree. Our first (6-9 after Academy picks), plus whatever we get for TDK and I’d imagine we try and trade our future first to get another 1st rounder this year, particularly given we have the campo twins next year. 3 picks under 20 would really set us up for a quick re-launch.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Picks 5, 12 and 18 should do us. 2023 First, 2024 First and TDK picks should be more than enough to get up to those with a few side trades here and there.

Mckercher, Wilson, Delean/Moir/Tholstrup

or

Duursma, Wilson, Lorenz

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Don't care how, just get Watson and Caddy in Navy Blue

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Don't care how, just get Watson and Caddy in Navy Blue

We saying adios to Cripps or Mckay?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

We saying adios to Cripps or Mckay?

If the shoe fits

 

[bmaurizio]

Picks 5, 12 and 18 should do us. 2023 First, 2024 First and TDK picks should be more than enough to get up to those with a few side trades here and there.

Mckercher, Wilson, Delean/Moir/Tholstrup

or

Duursma, Wilson, Lorenz

Much prefer your second option, all 3 youngsters play through the midfield beautifully, a must to get spot on.
Together with a mature 1st Ruck option & Gresham as RFA it would round up our list overhaul for season 2023 nicely.

 

[Coona Blues]

Picks 5, 12 and 18 should do us. 2023 First, 2024 First and TDK picks should be more than enough to get up to those with a few side trades here and there.

Mckercher, Wilson, Delean/Moir/Tholstrup

or

Duursma, Wilson, Lorenz

Unlikely group of picks, but I suppose not beyond possibility.

This draft offers so much variation, it would still be very subjective which way to jump.

If TDK is gone, we either look to a quality young ruck (Edwards) or repurpose Young in the short term as a ruckman and add a KPD either through the draft (Curtin or O’Sullivan a bit later) or make a big play for Ben McKay to shore up the defence, although if re-signing McGovern there is not an need for a mature option.

Everyone considering Watson will be gone, may have to reconsider. Eagles aren’t taking the cherry on top option, North have some decent small/medium options already, with Brayden George to return from ACL next year, Hawks could use him, but KPP or a dasher seem more likely, if GWS trades up, it is for Reid. Swans invested in Konstanty developing in the twos to add to their suite of small options.

Love Tholstrup as an option late first is a superb one. A bit of a unique hybrid. Already a strong/big body, a superb tank and very decent pace. Forward or wing appears his spot. Notionally, that high half forward/link type who can absolutely hit the scoreboard. (Those who love player comparisons throwing up Zurhaar, but has more strings to his bow). I haven’t written Moir off with his dual sided disposal. A bit hampered by injury (hip) but has slid from a top 5 rating in recent times. Increasingly difficult to rate against his peers.

Loving the Caddy option, but I expect he will be top 5. I don’t quite see it with Duursma, but he is spoken of as a possible no. 2 pick. Granted his ceiling is potentially very high, I just see him with a possible lower floor than the others being spoken if in the top 10.

Wilson will be a “nice” player, just struggling to see a lot of grunt there, so have dismissed.

Understand the ‘love’ for Duursma as a midfield option, but McKercher, Sanders and Hall have the better performances to date. I think George Stevens will rise up the list. He is discounted as not having too many “tricks” or pace, but is a big body with skills and plenty of quality attributes (clearly not for us). As stated earlier my pick if we are going midfielder I would be pushing for Sanders. McKercher undoubtedly the better mover, but I very much question his kicking and even handball effectiveness for one touted so high. Hall is an excellent high volume, inside/outside option who may rise up the ranks.

If Watson is gone, Delean is a forward option, but was “easily” held last Sunday. Think he could be all flash and a bit lacking on substance (just my feel). With recency bias(from last week), there are decent small forward options around. I was very impressed with both Koen Sanchez and Aiden O’Driscoll, both have great workrate, speed, mongrel and can hit the scoreboard. Likely to be mid draft types. (If Fisher trade rumours are true, the resultant pick would likely be around the mark). We need to remember Charlie Cameron, Papley, with Betts, Garlett and plenty of other late or rookie picks have been at the top end of small forwards.

I reiterate Nathan Philactides is right up there for my favourite in the draft, but we are already oversubscribed for half back flankers. He could play higher, but we have invested in wingers (along with Doc moving up there) and likely have the Campo boys next year. Will have to be content with having him as a fantasy football cash cow.

 

[DangerousD]

What’s peoples expected outcome if we traded our F1? We currently hold pick 4 but myself and online ladder predictors have us around pick 7, so what’s a big enough carrot to entice a club to part with a current first rounder?

If we were the ones offering a current pick I would be wanting to add at least 6-8 spots on top of the buyers ladder position.

By this logic, we’d get a pick around 12-15.

Would this be reasonable?

 

[Bletch]

What’s peoples expected outcome if we traded our F1? We currently hold pick 4 but myself and online ladder predictors have us around pick 7, so what’s a big enough carrot to entice a club to part with a current first rounder?

If we were the ones offering a current pick I would be wanting to add at least 6-8 spots on top of the buyers ladder position.

By this logic, we’d get a pick around 12-15.

Would this be reasonable?

I'm not sure that we will now. Certainly worth consideration, but it would be banking on a bid on Lucas Camporeale before our first pick next year. The odds on that have decreased, though of course a long way to go before then. Safer bet would be to hang on to it, and hopefully get that pick and the Camporeales next year. More likely we'd look at bringing in next year's 2nd round pick, and maybe try to pick up a couple of late 3rd/4th round picks in 2024 for points (perhaps via player trades).

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have 2-3 first round picks this year, but not sure it's going to happen.

 

[DangerousD]

I'm not sure that we will now. Certainly worth consideration, but it would be banking on a bid on Lucas Camporeale before our first pick next year. The odds on that have decreased, though of course a long way to go before then. Safer bet would be to hang on to it, and hopefully get that pick and the Camporeales next year. More likely we'd look at bringing in next year's 2nd round pick, and maybe try to pick up a couple of late 3rd/4th round picks in 2024 for points (perhaps via player trades).

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have 2-3 first round picks this year, but not sure it's going to happen.

My interest in trading our F1 isnt to do with the Campo twins, I think we need to injection of quality youth now. There are reports next years draft is filled with academy and father sons at the top end and I’m hopeful we have a good jump. I’d rather a pick 13 this year instead of a pick 13 next year.

 

[BlueBlood15]

I'm not sure that we will now. Certainly worth consideration, but it would be banking on a bid on Lucas Camporeale before our first pick next year. The odds on that have decreased, though of course a long way to go before then. Safer bet would be to hang on to it, and hopefully get that pick and the Camporeales next year. More likely we'd look at bringing in next year's 2nd round pick, and maybe try to pick up a couple of late 3rd/4th round picks in 2024 for points (perhaps via player trades).

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have 2-3 first round picks this year, but not sure it's going to happen.

Agreed Bletch. My other concern about trading our future first is I’m not sure how anyone can accurately predict where we might come next year. We’re in the bottom 4 after 14 rounds and I don’t think anyone in the industry would have picked that coming into the season. If things go pear shaped next year (which I hope like hell they don’t), we want to avoid the 2019 situation where we don’t have our first round pick.

We’ve got the assets to get three first round picks plus 2x Campo boys over the next two years already. TDK should get us a first rounder. Campo boys are currently doubtful to come in before our first pick.

 

[Coona Blues]

What’s peoples expected outcome if we traded our F1? We currently hold pick 4 but myself and online ladder predictors have us around pick 7, so what’s a big enough carrot to entice a club to part with a current first rounder?

If we were the ones offering a current pick I would be wanting to add at least 6-8 spots on top of the buyers ladder position.

By this logic, we’d get a pick around 12-15.

Would this be reasonable?

I'm not sure that we will now. Certainly worth consideration, but it would be banking on a bid on Lucas Camporeale before our first pick next year. The odds on that have decreased, though of course a long way to go before then. Safer bet would be to hang on to it, and hopefully get that pick and the Camporeales next year. More likely we'd look at bringing in next year's 2nd round pick, and maybe try to pick up a couple of late 3rd/4th round picks in 2024 for points (perhaps via player trades).

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have 2-3 first round picks this year, but not sure it's going to happen.

My interest in trading our F1 isnt to do with the Campo twins, I think we need to injection of quality youth now. There are reports next years draft is filled with academy and father sons at the top end and I’m hopeful we have a good jump. I’d rather a pick 13 this year instead of a pick 13 next year.

Agreed Bletch. My other concern about trading our future first is I’m not sure how anyone can accurately predict where we might come next year. We’re in the bottom 4 after 14 rounds and I don’t think anyone in the industry would have picked that coming into the season. If things go pear shaped next year (which I hope like hell they don’t), we want to avoid the 2019 situation where we don’t have our first round pick.

We’ve got the assets to get three first round picks plus 2x Campo boys over the next two years already. TDK should get us a first rounder. Campo boys are currently doubtful to come in before our first pick.

This is not an easy question.

People constantly overlook our contract status next year. As it sits, we have ten players coming off contract at the end of next season. Six of the main list and four rookies.

The rookies are O’Brien, who we would expect to go at the end of his contract, if not before due to pecking order changes.
Jordan Boyd could potentially be upgraded to the main list at the end of 2023 if spots exist (I believe he must be by regulation), if not would absolutely require an upgrade to stay on the list. Most would favour his retention.
Matthew Cottrell would be at the end of his third rookie year after a reset. Would require an upgrade to the main list to stay with the club. Most would favour his retention as quality depth.
Alex Mirkov, similar to Boyd would be 3 1/2 years listed, with a requirement that he be upgraded after three, so a bit “grey” if rounded up or down for that mid season drafting. I expect it would revert to this year like Boyd probably is. His medical condition may give us the option to play funny buggers and delist then re rookie to reset requirements. The jury is out on big Mirk. His tap work is elite and could be a weapon. The diagnosis of his medical condition could terminate his career, but is more likely to elevate it, giving him greater scope to get around the ground and make an impact beyond the ruck contest.
He holds a contract, so it seems the choice will remain his.

So we will be required to make three main list changes which can include rookie elevations Cincotta, O’Keeffe and perhaps S.Durdin become possibles for elevation too at that point. There will be some interesting questions and answers around our rookies at that time.

The main list players out of contract will be youngsters Binns and Lemmey who reasonable expectation would have being retained, as well as Jack Martin, Jack Carroll, Corey Durdin and Matt Owies. Good luck finding three or four delistings to accommodate both Camporeale boys and one or likely more rookie elevations.

We need to manipulate our 2024 draft position at the conclusion of this year. We have publicly stated the intent of going to the draft this year. We currently do not have a second or third rounder, so surely we will be seeking draft capital. Clearly if TDK leaves we will get another high pick. Will we be satisfied with two? What if Tom chooses not to leave?

Logically, if an appropriate deal can be brokered, we will seek the extra draft capital during THIS off season.

As each week passes our off season changes become less clear. Cuningham resurgence, Fogarty resurgence, Dow pushing claims, surely if he has to accept a reduced contract to continue his career, he would consider doing it in the place he has thus far been determined to stay? What if Caleb Marchbank plays out the remainder of the season in the top grade? As a “student” who looks at the machinations behind list management more than most, I currently find it fascinating.

I expect I have created more questions with this post, but my belief is we will maximise our draft this year and be “happy” to relinquish our first next year if the right deal comes. If we get the right “pieces” this year I think we would be happy with the Campo boys (assuming they come on) and a rookie upgrade or two next year.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

This is not an easy question.

People constantly overlook our contract status next year. As it sits, we have ten players coming off contract at the end of next season. Six of the main list and four rookies.

The rookies are O’Brien, who we would expect to go at the end of his contract, if not before due to pecking order changes.
Jordan Boyd could potentially be upgraded to the main list at the end of 2023 if spots exist (I believe he must be by regulation), if not would absolutely require an upgrade to stay on the list. Most would favour his retention.
Matthew Cottrell would be at the end of his third rookie year after a reset. Would require an upgrade to the main list to stay with the club. Most would favour his retention as quality depth.
Alex Mirkov, similar to Boyd would be 3 1/2 years listed, with a requirement that he be upgraded after three, so a bit “grey” if rounded up or down for that mid season drafting. I expect it would revert to this year like Boyd probably is. His medical condition may give us the option to play funny buggers and delist then re rookie to reset requirements. The jury is out on big Mirk. His tap work is elite and could be a weapon. The diagnosis of his medical condition could terminate his career, but is more likely to elevate it, giving him greater scope to get around the ground and make an impact beyond the ruck contest.
He holds a contract, so it seems the choice will remain his.

So we will be required to make three list changes which can include rookie elevations Cincotta, O’Keeffe and perhaps S.Durdin become possibles for elevation too at that point. There will be some interesting questions and answers around our rookies at that time.

The main list players out of contract will be youngsters Binns and Lemmey who reasonable expectation would have being retained, as well as Jack Martin, Jack Carroll, Corey Durdin and Matt Owies. Good luck finding three or four delistings to accommodate both Camporeale boys and one or likely more rookie elevations.

We need to manipulate our 2024 draft position at the conclusion of this year. We have publicly stated the intent of going to the draft this year. We currently do not have a second or third rounder, so surely we will be seeking draft capital. Clearly if TDK leaves we will get another high pick. Will we be satisfied with two? What if Tom chooses not to leave?

Logically, if an appropriate deal can be brokered, we will seek the extra draft capital during THIS off season.

As each week passes our off season changes become less clear. Cuningham resurgence, Fogarty resurgence, Dow pushing claims, surely if he has to accept a reduced contract to continue his career, he would consider doing it in the place he has thus far been determined to stay? What if Caleb Marchbank plays out the remainder of the season in the top grade? As a “student” who looks at the machinations behind list management more than most, I currently find it fascinating.

I expect I have created more questions with this post, but my belief is we will maximise our draft this year and be “happy” to relinquish our first next year if the right deal comes. If we get the right “pieces” this year I think we would be happy with the Campo boys (assuming they come on) and a rookie upgrade or two next year.

I imagine we will use the rookie list to open up more spots next year. Anyone we rookie this year will only need a one year contract so there could be 3-4 picked up this season and delisted next year for more list spots.

 

[Bletch]

My interest in trading our F1 isnt to do with the Campo twins, I think we need to injection of quality youth now. There are reports next years draft is filled with academy and father sons at the top end and I’m hopeful we have a good jump. I’d rather a pick 13 this year instead of a pick 13 next year.

You make a fair point... I'd love an extra pick or two this year too. And a few months back I was actively advocating we do just as you say. Just now, l'm not so sure. Our form this year has given me little confidence that we'll be up the pointy end next year, making it a huge risk to trade away a first round pick.

I don't think the 2024 draft will be any more compromised than this year. This year we have the 3 x GCS kids. Next year, there's a few F/S candidates - Welsh (Ade), Aschcroft v2 (Bris) and our two Campos. Suns have another couple of academy kids, but not sure they'll be in the first round. Not much in it.

 

[Bletch]

This is not an easy question.

People constantly overlook our contract status next year. As it sits, we have ten players coming off contract at the end of next season. Six of the main list and four rookies.

The rookies are O’Brien, who we would expect to go at the end of his contract, if not before due to pecking order changes.
Jordan Boyd could potentially be upgraded to the main list at the end of 2023 if spots exist (I believe he must be by regulation), if not would absolutely require an upgrade to stay on the list. Most would favour his retention.
Matthew Cottrell would be at the end of his third rookie year after a reset. Would require an upgrade to the main list to stay with the club. Most would favour his retention as quality depth.
Alex Mirkov, similar to Boyd would be 3 1/2 years listed, with a requirement that he be upgraded after three, so a bit “grey” if rounded up or down for that mid season drafting. I expect it would revert to this year like Boyd probably is. His medical condition may give us the option to play funny buggers and delist then re rookie to reset requirements. The jury is out on big Mirk. His tap work is elite and could be a weapon. The diagnosis of his medical condition could terminate his career, but is more likely to elevate it, giving him greater scope to get around the ground and make an impact beyond the ruck contest.
He holds a contract, so it seems the choice will remain his.

So we will be required to make three list changes which can include rookie elevations Cincotta, O’Keeffe and perhaps S.Durdin become possibles for elevation too at that point. There will be some interesting questions and answers around our rookies at that time.

The main list players out of contract will be youngsters Binns and Lemmey who reasonable expectation would have being retained, as well as Jack Martin, Jack Carroll, Corey Durdin and Matt Owies. Good luck finding three or four delistings to accommodate both Camporeale boys and one or likely more rookie elevations.

We need to manipulate our 2024 draft position at the conclusion of this year. We have publicly stated the intent of going to the draft this year. We currently do not have a second or third rounder, so surely we will be seeking draft capital. Clearly if TDK leaves we will get another high pick. Will we be satisfied with two? What if Tom chooses not to leave?

Logically, if an appropriate deal can be brokered, we will seek the extra draft capital during THIS off season.

As each week passes our off season changes become less clear. Cuningham resurgence, Fogarty resurgence, Dow pushing claims, surely if he has to accept a reduced contract to continue his career, he would consider doing it in the place he has thus far been determined to stay? What if Caleb Marchbank plays out the remainder of the season in the top grade? As a “student” who looks at the machinations behind list management more than most, I currently find it fascinating.

I expect I have created more questions with this post, but my belief is we will maximise our draft this year and be “happy” to relinquish our first next year if the right deal comes. If we get the right “pieces” this year I think we would be happy with the Campo boys (assuming they come on) and a rookie upgrade or two next year.

Agree. It's not a straight forward decision. Also need to consider that if everyone rates this draft highly, they're less likely to want to trade out of it - at least for a deal that is reasonable. Guess we see what offers are out there. If we can get another top-10 pick for next year's first, I'm ok with it. If the offer is worse than that, I'd be very hesitant.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Every time I watch him I just think of Collingwood and everything our team lacks. Pace, skill, dare.