Bletch
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Would love that result. Don't see how we make it happen though. Time will tell.
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Analysis 2023 Draft Watch
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I agree that our 2024 1st could be up for grabs, but realistically there's a number of contingencies how it could pan out.
Apart from our current 1st, we have little draft capital to trade if we want to bring in a player this year. For example, if were looking to trade in a player of some quality, we could potentially offer our future 1st, with a future 2nd coming back our way.
We could even keep it this year, and wait until next year to trade it out depending on how the twins are travelling.
I still reckon we're targeting a free agent though given our lack of trade capital....wouldn't at all be surprised if it was Gresham we've been negotiating all along, but have possibly cooled on him with his form slump. Either way, his stocks seemed to have dropped a fair chunk.
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More general list management than pure draft, but the conversation is in here regarding our future first.
Our list management and recruiting team would currently be very torn with the decisions to be made and make no mistakes, there will be “carnage” and almost certainly some fan/member back lash.
We will struggle to meet AFL requirements over the next two off seasons. The number of “expendable” players this year is reducing weekly. The re-signing of TDK has dramatically impacted the salary cap and may well squeeze some deserving fan favourites off the list. I am astounded that there is still discussion of taking Gresham as a free agent. Understandably it is a way of adding to the list without using draft picks, but it is difficult to imagine adding him while letting one or both of Silvagni and McGovern go. There is little doubt the salary cap will very much dictate many of our actions.
Then there is our bulging rookie list, with pending requirements for upgrades. We have eight on it due to SSP additions of Cincotta and O’Keeffe who are already re-signed. O’Brien and Cottrell hold contracts, but don’t require upgrading as yet. Then there are Boyd and Mirkov who were mid year signings and will complete 2 1/2 years on a list when they must be upgraded after 3 years. I am making an assumption that they require an upgrade this year rather than next, or to be re-rookied. It is a safe bet that Ed Curnow will be retiring at season’s end so then we must assess Sam Durdin’s tenure. Unless we are categorically getting a KPD draftee, likely he is retained.
For mine, we are intending to promote Boyd to the main list, and possibly Mirkov. The big man’s status is a bit unknown, certainly is contracted, but will he be continuing his career with his heart condition? If he is not retiring, we may well go down the delist and re-rookie path. Unproven at AFL level, it is doubtful this would backfire, so banking on him staying a rookie. If Boyd is upgraded along with Ed departing we would then be at quota for rookies.
However, we will surely look to retain Cottrell, Cincotta and O’Keeffe long term. Cotts will need to be elevated at the end of ‘24, when the Campo boys are up for drafting. This would comply with AFL list management regulation of three changes to the main list. That may well be all we do next year, with a big assumption that we will be happy to draft both Campo boys. It occurs to me that we may not even see fit to draft the Campo boys with the other wing options already in place and an incredibly tight list.
Unthinkable that we pass them up? On face value definitely. Reality may be different. Would we split the boys? Would we take one and not the other? I see that unlikely on their current trajectory. The problem is, how many list spots will we have to play with? Can we afford to draft two similar types when we have a need for other positional coverage?
Most would say, just open up more list spots. Let’s just take a look at who is off contract next year. Rookie listed O’Brien, Cottrell, Boyd, Cincotta, Mirkov, O’Keeffe and Cat B Akuei. Moving them at the end of ‘24 does nothing for our requirements. We have to move three of Jack Carroll, Corey Durdin, Matt Owies or Jack Martin. Is anyone here shifting three if those four?
We need to manipulate this year’s draft and list management. We need a couple of “expendable” players given single year contracts to allow meeting AFL statutory requirements. For mine unless we manage to off load LOB this year (sorry mate, but too many have gone past you), he should actually be upgraded to the main list in order to be delisted next year. Thinking Boyd gets upgraded as above, with some chance of one more to mitigate future needs.
So how many draft picks are we taking?
So many opinions as to who we retain and who we keep. Recapping the out of contract. Ed C and Sam Durdin as rookies likely do not impact other than rookie numbers and possible rookie draftees or SSP additions pre season. Then we have to “juggle” Silvagni, McGovern, Fogarty, Cuningham, Marchbank, Dow, Plowman, Honey and Philp to facilitate our required list space. The dogs are barking a Zac Fisher trade and some mention a while back of interest in Young to perhaps provide both list space and draft picks.
Plenty of opinions, but for mine Plowman, Honey and Philp are the “easy” delists. I wouldn’t discount Honey or Philp being shuffled to the rookie list if space can be made, but have no real insight to internal rankings. I don’t think the Dow supporters will get their desired reprieve, he will have some value to obtain us, perhaps a third rounder or late second if he can finish the season well. It is to be hoped Fisher can get us a third rounder as well to give us a couple of “reasonable” picks to add to our first rounder. Small chance we “cash in” Young if he has indeed fallen from favour for another spot and pick.
It would be expected Cuningham and Fogarty would have earned extensions with their recent form, but unlikely to be big offers on the back of extensive injury absences. They may contemplate other offers and no doubt are haggling over length of contracts. If I were managing the list I would offer single year deals with triggers for further, while I am sure their managers are seeking multi year deals. Marchbank will come under consideration for another contract should he play out the season effectively, but again there will be plenty of discussion on terms and dollars given tall defenders are in demand. This leaves JSOS and Gov. Surely we will want to retain them and offer them deals. The issue may well be how much we can afford to offer? Jack is a quality boots and all player who arguably is over rated by some and under rated by others. A heart and soul player who would be sadly missed by rpteam mates and fans should he be permitted to exercise free agency. McGovern is another player both loved and “hated”. He has never justified the price tag, yet clearly when fit and focussed makes us a better team. Reported on here to be happy and actively seeking a new deal at the club. Plenty to play out,
dollars and list spots tight. We have just enough spots to keep Jack, Gov, Marchy, Cunners and Fog if we trade Dow and Fisher and elevate a rookie or two.
The discussion that prompted this was on the merit of trading our future first for another high pick this year. The answer hinges on the list management team being happy to draft both Campo boys next year. Popular opinion says we would be.
If that is the case, we surely trade the first from next year. “Assuming” a top four finish next year, we couldn’t bank on getting to use a first rounder before a bid on one of the boys, so it becomes a no-brainer to grab another high pick this year and draft a strategic piece of the puzzle. We are not going to have spare picks next year. Two picks plus rookie elevation(s) would seem to be it for next year.
So much to play out. Hope this helps those just calling to get this player and that player or just re-sign my favourite to understand the complexities facing our list management team in the near future. Contrary to popular opinion, our list is “stacked”.
Our list management and recruiting team would currently be very torn with the decisions to be made and make no mistakes, there will be “carnage” and almost certainly some fan/member back lash.
We will struggle to meet AFL requirements over the next two off seasons. The number of “expendable” players this year is reducing weekly. The re-signing of TDK has dramatically impacted the salary cap and may well squeeze some deserving fan favourites off the list. I am astounded that there is still discussion of taking Gresham as a free agent. Understandably it is a way of adding to the list without using draft picks, but it is difficult to imagine adding him while letting one or both of Silvagni and McGovern go. There is little doubt the salary cap will very much dictate many of our actions.
Then there is our bulging rookie list, with pending requirements for upgrades. We have eight on it due to SSP additions of Cincotta and O’Keeffe who are already re-signed. O’Brien and Cottrell hold contracts, but don’t require upgrading as yet. Then there are Boyd and Mirkov who were mid year signings and will complete 2 1/2 years on a list when they must be upgraded after 3 years. I am making an assumption that they require an upgrade this year rather than next, or to be re-rookied. It is a safe bet that Ed Curnow will be retiring at season’s end so then we must assess Sam Durdin’s tenure. Unless we are categorically getting a KPD draftee, likely he is retained.
For mine, we are intending to promote Boyd to the main list, and possibly Mirkov. The big man’s status is a bit unknown, certainly is contracted, but will he be continuing his career with his heart condition? If he is not retiring, we may well go down the delist and re-rookie path. Unproven at AFL level, it is doubtful this would backfire, so banking on him staying a rookie. If Boyd is upgraded along with Ed departing we would then be at quota for rookies.
However, we will surely look to retain Cottrell, Cincotta and O’Keeffe long term. Cotts will need to be elevated at the end of ‘24, when the Campo boys are up for drafting. This would comply with AFL list management regulation of three changes to the main list. That may well be all we do next year, with a big assumption that we will be happy to draft both Campo boys. It occurs to me that we may not even see fit to draft the Campo boys with the other wing options already in place and an incredibly tight list.
Unthinkable that we pass them up? On face value definitely. Reality may be different. Would we split the boys? Would we take one and not the other? I see that unlikely on their current trajectory. The problem is, how many list spots will we have to play with? Can we afford to draft two similar types when we have a need for other positional coverage?
Most would say, just open up more list spots. Let’s just take a look at who is off contract next year. Rookie listed O’Brien, Cottrell, Boyd, Cincotta, Mirkov, O’Keeffe and Cat B Akuei. Moving them at the end of ‘24 does nothing for our requirements. We have to move three of Jack Carroll, Corey Durdin, Matt Owies or Jack Martin. Is anyone here shifting three if those four?
We need to manipulate this year’s draft and list management. We need a couple of “expendable” players given single year contracts to allow meeting AFL statutory requirements. For mine unless we manage to off load LOB this year (sorry mate, but too many have gone past you), he should actually be upgraded to the main list in order to be delisted next year. Thinking Boyd gets upgraded as above, with some chance of one more to mitigate future needs.
So how many draft picks are we taking?
So many opinions as to who we retain and who we keep. Recapping the out of contract. Ed C and Sam Durdin as rookies likely do not impact other than rookie numbers and possible rookie draftees or SSP additions pre season. Then we have to “juggle” Silvagni, McGovern, Fogarty, Cuningham, Marchbank, Dow, Plowman, Honey and Philp to facilitate our required list space. The dogs are barking a Zac Fisher trade and some mention a while back of interest in Young to perhaps provide both list space and draft picks.
Plenty of opinions, but for mine Plowman, Honey and Philp are the “easy” delists. I wouldn’t discount Honey or Philp being shuffled to the rookie list if space can be made, but have no real insight to internal rankings. I don’t think the Dow supporters will get their desired reprieve, he will have some value to obtain us, perhaps a third rounder or late second if he can finish the season well. It is to be hoped Fisher can get us a third rounder as well to give us a couple of “reasonable” picks to add to our first rounder. Small chance we “cash in” Young if he has indeed fallen from favour for another spot and pick.
It would be expected Cuningham and Fogarty would have earned extensions with their recent form, but unlikely to be big offers on the back of extensive injury absences. They may contemplate other offers and no doubt are haggling over length of contracts. If I were managing the list I would offer single year deals with triggers for further, while I am sure their managers are seeking multi year deals. Marchbank will come under consideration for another contract should he play out the season effectively, but again there will be plenty of discussion on terms and dollars given tall defenders are in demand. This leaves JSOS and Gov. Surely we will want to retain them and offer them deals. The issue may well be how much we can afford to offer? Jack is a quality boots and all player who arguably is over rated by some and under rated by others. A heart and soul player who would be sadly missed by rpteam mates and fans should he be permitted to exercise free agency. McGovern is another player both loved and “hated”. He has never justified the price tag, yet clearly when fit and focussed makes us a better team. Reported on here to be happy and actively seeking a new deal at the club. Plenty to play out,
dollars and list spots tight. We have just enough spots to keep Jack, Gov, Marchy, Cunners and Fog if we trade Dow and Fisher and elevate a rookie or two.
The discussion that prompted this was on the merit of trading our future first for another high pick this year. The answer hinges on the list management team being happy to draft both Campo boys next year. Popular opinion says we would be.
If that is the case, we surely trade the first from next year. “Assuming” a top four finish next year, we couldn’t bank on getting to use a first rounder before a bid on one of the boys, so it becomes a no-brainer to grab another high pick this year and draft a strategic piece of the puzzle. We are not going to have spare picks next year. Two picks plus rookie elevation(s) would seem to be it for next year.
So much to play out. Hope this helps those just calling to get this player and that player or just re-sign my favourite to understand the complexities facing our list management team in the near future. Contrary to popular opinion, our list is “stacked”.
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The big men attracting the biggest interest as ruck market heats up
Essendon journeyman Andrew Phillips’ retirement on Tuesday – after 78 games for three clubs, across 13 seasons – could have serious ramifications for this year’s ruck merry-go-round.
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Maybe three picks is plenty
The big men attracting the biggest interest as ruck market heats up
Essendon journeyman Andrew Phillips’ retirement on Tuesday – after 78 games for three clubs, across 13 seasons – could have serious ramifications for this year’s ruck merry-go-round.www.theage.com.au
jezzatigerbrent
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thx for the ''arcade '' linkThe big men attracting the biggest interest as ruck market heats up
Essendon journeyman Andrew Phillips’ retirement on Tuesday – after 78 games for three clubs, across 13 seasons – could have serious ramifications for this year’s ruck merry-go-round.
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The big men attracting the biggest interest as ruck market heats up
Essendon journeyman Andrew Phillips’ retirement on Tuesday – after 78 games for three clubs, across 13 seasons – could have serious ramifications for this year’s ruck merry-go-round.
I swear I saw a similar article last year.
Think we possibly only go with 2 Draft picks and rookie upgrades with the possibility of a younger player from another club if the price/pick suits with using outgoing players with some currency to get the trade done…
Wasn’t keen on using our future first before the form turnaround but with the possibility of a good finish to the year and being possibly a stronger team next year, if one could be done I’d go down that path…
Only problem is because this year’s draft isn’t anywhere near the depth of class it was projected to be, it might be much harder gaining a later first rounder from teams who are either obviously wanting to keep them, trying to deal up higher, along with bugger all picks/points to offer up ourselves compared to others…
Two later first rounders (ours & future first trade) wouldn’t be a bad result, Campo twins for points next year who hopefully both end up being quality f/son pickups with the opportunity to use 2025 futures next year if there’s a player we’re keen on maybe in a live trade situation like the Cowan future pick draft scenario last year…
Wasn’t keen on using our future first before the form turnaround but with the possibility of a good finish to the year and being possibly a stronger team next year, if one could be done I’d go down that path…
Only problem is because this year’s draft isn’t anywhere near the depth of class it was projected to be, it might be much harder gaining a later first rounder from teams who are either obviously wanting to keep them, trying to deal up higher, along with bugger all picks/points to offer up ourselves compared to others…
Two later first rounders (ours & future first trade) wouldn’t be a bad result, Campo twins for points next year who hopefully both end up being quality f/son pickups with the opportunity to use 2025 futures next year if there’s a player we’re keen on maybe in a live trade situation like the Cowan future pick draft scenario last year…
I'm with ya on that....although I wouldn't be surprised if we looked to split our future 1st for a 2023 and 2024 2nd round pick.
The way we're travelling, our 1st round pick could end up being around 12 to 15 (excluding academy picks), so we may look to go into the draft with only 2 selections - a 1st and 2nd round pick. A future 2nd would accumulate points for the Campo boys.
After watching the U18 Championships, the two I'm keen on with our 1st rounder (if it ends up being around 12 to 15) are Koen Sanchez and Jack Delean - who both should be available around that pick.
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Think with how we're tracking on the ladder Tholstrup will be well within our sights. He's a very Cuningham like athlete and I'd imagine we'll be looking at bolstering that area of the ground with the obvious injury issues with our players in that role.
Got some mongrel too....good call.
If WCE do split their pick, I reckon he's one they'd be looking at grabbing with their second pick after taking Curtin with their first.
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I haven't been a massive fan of his but can definitely see him being a target for our list.
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Love to hear from the poster who was complaining when we started winning because we were having a few cheap wins and blowing our draft hand.
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Are we trading up?
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I'll see myself out I guess. No room for sarcasm or hyperbole on bigfooty!
Delean i would rate as the better skilled small forward out of the two BH, the problem is that we desperately need the medium tall forward types around the 185’ish size types who can impact both in the air and on the ground, the problem that I’ve noticed with this years prospects that it’s probably the thinnest I’ve ever seen with the overall talent of these types in a long time…
It’s one of the most difficult drafts to rate after the top group of available certainties in the top 8 the CGS academy boys and now with a couple of father/sons who are now rated well as the season has transpired…
There are many that are poor with general disposal both hands and feet, decision making, lack poise, fumbely or lack clean/reliable hands…
My wish list would be with the understanding the first 2 most likely won’t be available are…
Connor O’Sullivan
Ryley Sanders
Darcy Wilson
Has good pace, pressure, can find the ball, not the cleanest of hands his disposal by foot is not at a great standard…
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Not many serious mistakes and a couple of inspired selections. A couple took a while, but the total is looking promising.
It is also good to see MSD, rookie and SSP picks coming up trumps. That is where you improve your list. 1st rounder should be decent picks; it is the late ones that prove your worth.
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Cook this year has mentioned a few times that we will look to hit the draft at seasons end.
His comments don’t reflect a team looking at taking two picks.
I have heard either Cook or Voss also talk about making our list more robust, I still think we will be moving quite a few on.
I’m tipping at least 3 picks in the first two rounds.
His comments don’t reflect a team looking at taking two picks.
I have heard either Cook or Voss also talk about making our list more robust, I still think we will be moving quite a few on.
I’m tipping at least 3 picks in the first two rounds.
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It would make the draft a lot more interesting, but it's going to be pretty difficult to find those 2 extra picks.
F1 could get one of them, and then?
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I agree.
We will draft 4 at least including rookies I reckon.
Probably keep a spare for mid season draft also.
Maybe look to split our first?
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Our F1 doesn’t necessarily have to be traded for a 1st this year, it could be a 2nd and a F2, allowing us to trade our own F2.
So turning a current 4th and F1 in to two 2nds would give us 3 picks in the first two rounds, without needing to trade anyone.
I still think both Dow and Fish will be traded, it’s very possible they both get us a 3rd rounder.
If we had our 1st, 2 3rds and 2 4ths, that gives us a bit to work with, Austin might be more comfortable trading a F2.
Lots of options, I just don’t see any chance we sit on our hands come draft time after the clubs comments through the year.
What’s your thoughts on how many we will draft or how to achieve it?
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I'm really unsure at the moment.
2 months ago I would have said that Fogarty was a certain delist.
I think there's a good chance that Dow and/or Fish are traded, but they could still stay.
It sounds like there will be a low number of picks overall, with quite a few clubs only taking 1-2 picks, which can skew the value of picks.
I guess we take 2-4 total.
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