Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[Coona Blues]

Is their any chance that our first this year and next years first could net us O’Sullivan?

Nice target, but massive price for a great prospect, but unproven player. If we could engineer next year’s first and a second (and even a bit more) from somewhere to a club like Gold Coast to mitigate their impending three (or four) bid matches it could possibly work.

 

[Stamos]

Nice target, but massive price for a great prospect, but unproven player. If we could engineer next year’s first and a second (and even a bit more) from somewhere to a club like Gold Coast to mitigate their impending three (or four) bid matches it could possibly work.

That's not going to get Gold Coast's #4

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

https://archive.md/aPbMR

​

A first-round draft prospect has been compared to a Carlton rising star as he too eyes a role on a wing at AFL level.
Murray Bushrangers midfielder Darcy Wilson has excited in the Coates Talent League this season and shapes as one of the most athletically gifted players in this year’s draft pool.
Wilson ranked fifth in the Yo-Yo test during Victorian pre-season testing in March and has transferred that running ability onto the field this season.

Carlton wingman Ollie Hollands, who was this week’s AFL Rising Star nominee, also came through the Bushrangers program before being selected at pick 11 in last year’s national draft.
“He (Wilson) logs twice as many high-speed metres – or he did on the weekend – as what Ollie Hollands did when played with us,” Bushrangers coach Mark Brown said.
“His high-end running speed is ridiculous. That allows him to get to a lot of contests.”

 

[ferrisb]

DeMattia might be one for us?

Not rated in the top 20.

What's DeMattia with him?

 

[ray8182]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...t/news-story/dbca816aab39013fcb04b45119d6b5ca

A first-round draft prospect has been compared to a Carlton rising star as he too eyes a role on a wing at AFL level.
Murray Bushrangers midfielder Darcy Wilson has excited in the Coates Talent League this season and shapes as one of the most athletically gifted players in this year’s draft pool.
Wilson ranked fifth in the Yo-Yo test during Victorian pre-season testing in March and has transferred that running ability onto the field this season.

Carlton wingman Ollie Hollands, who was this week’s AFL Rising Star nominee, also came through the Bushrangers program before being selected at pick 11 in last year’s national draft.
“He (Wilson) logs twice as many high-speed metres – or he did on the weekend – as what Ollie Hollands did when played with us,” Bushrangers coach Mark Brown said.
“His high-end running speed is ridiculous. That allows him to get to a lot of contests.”

That’s interesting. So l’m guessing, compared to Ollie, it’s not nessarily the overall distance he covers but more that he can maintain a high speed twice as often. Impressive.

Does Carlton need another winger? Not sure we do at the moment.


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[WalshistheGOAT]

That’s interesting. So l’m guessing, compared to Ollie, it’s not nessarily the overall distance he covers but more that he can maintain a high speed twice as often. Impressive.

Does Carlton need another winger? Not sure we do at the moment.


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I've compared him to Isaac Smith and Jack Crisp if playing a flank/wing.

He's got xfactor and ability to break lines that Ollie does not while Ollie is much more of your workhorse type winger - defensive efforts, gut running from end to end to get back to be an extra number and generally just neat ball use.

Wilson has extreme acceleration and ability to put distance between an opponent who started level with him. Very good side step and has a long penetrating kick that can catch out defensive zones a bit like how Charlie does through that bit extra penetration through the air.

The question on him is where he ends up. He has the speed and instincts to play on ball as shown in his games for the Bushrangers but at higher levels he's been a bit too soft for the bigger bodies. He's got a very slender upper body with strong powerful legs so the hope would be that once he adds some weight to his frame he will be able to transition to an on ball role where he plays a bit like Connor Rozee. Swoops through stoppages and is near on impossible to catch if afforded space. Consistently hits the scoreboard too.

He's played half back and half forward too where he's looked comfortable without looking exceptional, both could be roles he excels at with the structures and speed of ball movement at AFL level but thats a wait and see.

I've been a big fan of his for some time but remember being told he's a Paddy Dow clone by some on this board. Not sure if that GPS data supports that given Dow would be close to our worst overall runner at the club.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

And as for the do we need another Winger question, I think the plan would be for Wilson to start off half back or half forward if we were to select him. Hollands, Acres and Binns will have those spots tied up for some time.

Will be around our first pick on draft boards.

 

[ferrisb]

That’s interesting. So l’m guessing, compared to Ollie, it’s not nessarily the overall distance he covers but more that he can maintain a high speed twice as often. Impressive.

Hollands regularly tops or podiums the AFL tracker for high-speed distance.

Last week he ran 3.2km at high-speed.

Only one player from round 22 (~400 players) ran over 3.5km.

Tom Scully has about half the instances of a player running >4.0km at high speed in a match. Only ~7 other players not called Tom Scully have ever done that (since records started).

Wilson may very well be a better (and/or more explosive) runner than Hollands, but this double the distance stuff won't translate to AFL level.

 

[Stamos]

That’s interesting. So l’m guessing, compared to Ollie, it’s not nessarily the overall distance he covers but more that he can maintain a high speed twice as often. Impressive.

Does Carlton need another winger? Not sure we do at the moment.

With bringing in Acres and drafting Hollands and Binns, and 2 Camporeales to come next year, I don't think so.
If he's the best player at our pick, so be it (although it seems he's rated a bit higher than what our pick will be), but I'd much prefer a proper half forward, or a key back.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Hollands regularly tops or podiums the AFL tracker for high-speed distance.

Last week he ran 3.2km at high-speed.

Only one player from round 22 (~400 players) ran over 3.5km.

Tom Scully has about half the instances of a player running >4.0km at high speed in a match. Only ~7 other players not called Tom Scully have ever done that (since records started).

Wilson may very well be a better (and/or more explosive) runner than Hollands, but this double the distance stuff won't translate to AFL level.

Yes, the Hollands vs Wilson stuff is more to do with their actual speed than distance covered. Wilson is simply a faster runner similar to how Ed Langdon is a faster runner than Lachie Hunter for the Dees. Both cover huge distances in their respective positions but Langdon is more the type who can actually put a gap on his opponent in a race. Both in the absolutely elite bracket of runners either way.

As I said though if we were recruiting Wilson to play on the wing, I wouldn't be as interested given our current stocks and the Camporeale boys coming through next year. If the list team had in mind that he was going to play half forward or half back then I'd be on board. He's definitely got some great traits for multiple positions long term so I'd certainly be happy he was with us and not someone else if we selected him.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

I’ve liked this kid all year, has a combination of high end speed and endurance that is made for the modern day game, a natural ball winner balanced out with creating run and overlap, early season thought he needed to improve a little with some of his disposal and decision making, he seems to have improved on those aspects as the season has progressed…

Wilson imo, will become in time like Hollands more predominantly a inside/outside midfielder, like Ollie he will play mainly wing until he fills out whilst further developing different aspects of his game, I’d be very happy if the club were to manage to pick him up with our pick if he was still available…

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

For what it's worth... after our recent heartbreaking surge up the ladder which has ended in us being flag smokies going into this week, my plans to get Reid, Mckercher, Curtin, Watson and Caddy all at once have been shot through the heart.

My revised 3 picks which is how many I'm hoping we head to the draft with now that TDK has re-signed are as such:

Connor O'Sullivan/Nate Caddy (8-12) 2023 F1 & 2024 F1
Arie Schoenmaker (30- 45) Zac Fisher

16

Zac Fisher

Age

27

Ht

175cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.0

5star

MG

384.0

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

MG

384.0

5star

D

12.2

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

3.0

5star

pick
Lance Collard (30-39) - Dow + Our 4th's

Or something along the lines of that in terms of trading players/picks etc.

My hesitations in that 3 though have really only come about due to the Irish recruits now being in that mix too. Schoenmaker and Collard are supremely talented players but have both faced issues with their professionalism. That would leave 4 very fresh and very raw players on our list that are real stab in the dark types. Huge payoff if they come off but I'd certainly be more comfortable if we added a Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

, Ollie Hollands type who you know is almost 100% of making it at AFL level. Someone like Jack Callinan would fit that bill better but do I think he's a better talent than Collard? No.

For anyone unfamiliar with Schoenmaker and Collard...

Arie Schoenmaker: Plays like Matt Suckling - 194cm utility. Booming but pin point kick who can easily kick it 55-60m at a low trajectory and it's quite clearly his best asset. Can play half back, wing and half forward but impressed most as a high half forward delivering inside 50. Tends to bob up and kick goals from any position on the ground given he can roost it from such a distance and he causes defences a lot of issues given how quickly he can move the ball across the ground. Can hold his own defensively but his application and effort isn't a strength currently. Was suspended for unknown reasons earlier in the season but must have been fairly serious given the length of his suspension. Bit of Nic Newman

24

Nic Newman

Age

33

Ht

186cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.7

5star

K

13.7

5star

HB

5.9

4star

M

5.5

5star

T

3.3

5star

MG

400.8

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

1.0

1star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

2star

MG

157.0

3star

D

22.4

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

9.6

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

3.6

5star

MG

387.8

5star

about him in terms of leg speed/movement. Not fast by any stretch but doesn't tend to go on any extravagant runs that invite a chase down tackle or oncoming pressure, he just gets it and looks for a target by foot straight away.

Lance Collard: Plays like Jeff Garlett

Jeff Garlett

Age

36

Ht

180cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

8.1

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.7

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.6

3star

K

8.2

4star

HB

2.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.0

4star

- Reported as 179cm-185cm. Electrifying speed is his one wood. The type of player who if they get out the back theres nobody in the AFL that's going to catch them. Has a play style that lends itself to score involvements but he's a very low disposal player at the moment. He's the type who would get 10-12 disposals in a game but have 6-8 score involvements and 3-4 goals on a good day but 4-5 touches with limited impact on a bad day. He can jump over heads and uses the ball really well going inside 50 but he's currently not great defensively purely because he looks to be a bit lazy at times. Reports from WA is he was having some family issues at home that troubled him through the champs. I'd say outside of Nick Watson he has the highest potential out of any small/mid sized forward in the draft.

Connor O'Sullivan - Don't need to write much about him as he's a very well reported on prospect. 198cm brick wall down back who reads the play beautifully and sets up rebound for his teams.

 

[ferrisb]

Wilson imo, will become in time like Hollands more predominantly a midfielder, like Ollie he will play mainly wing until he fills out whilst further developing different aspects of his game

I think Ollie is more a Walsh-lite inside/outside constant mover than a pure winger long-term.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

I think Ollie is more a Walsh-lite inside/outside constant mover than a pure winger long-term.

Spot on, balanced mid

 

[DangerousD]

I've compared him to Isaac Smith and Jack Crisp if playing a flank/wing.

He's got xfactor and ability to break lines that Ollie does not while Ollie is much more of your workhorse type winger - defensive efforts, gut running from end to end to get back to be an extra number and generally just neat ball use.

Wilson has extreme acceleration and ability to put distance between an opponent who started level with him. Very good side step and has a long penetrating kick that can catch out defensive zones a bit like how Charlie does through that bit extra penetration through the air.

The question on him is where he ends up. He has the speed and instincts to play on ball as shown in his games for the Bushrangers but at higher levels he's been a bit too soft for the bigger bodies. He's got a very slender upper body with strong powerful legs so the hope would be that once he adds some weight to his frame he will be able to transition to an on ball role where he plays a bit like Connor Rozee. Swoops through stoppages and is near on impossible to catch if afforded space. Consistently hits the scoreboard too.

He's played half back and half forward too where he's looked comfortable without looking exceptional, both could be roles he excels at with the structures and speed of ball movement at AFL level but thats a wait and see.

I've been a big fan of his for some time but remember being told he's a Paddy Dow clone by some on this board. Not sure if that GPS data supports that given Dow would be close to our worst overall runner at the club.

Great write up and he does sound a good fit for us. Generally when assessing any draft, do watchers and posters focus more on the negatives when assessing players later in the first round? It seems like a lot of commentary is more about what they aren’t good at, compared to what they are.

Currently holding pick 14, it seems a bit difficult to focus on the positive attributes of our targets.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Lance Collard: Plays like Jeff Garlett - Reported as 179cm-185cm. Electrifying speed is his one wood. The type of player who if they get out the back theres nobody in the AFL that's going to catch them. Has a play style that lends itself to score involvements but he's a very low disposal player at the moment. He's the type who would get 10-12 disposals in a game but have 6-8 score involvements and 3-4 goals on a good day but 4-5 touches with limited impact on a bad day. He can jump over heads and uses the ball really well going inside 50 but he's currently not great defensively purely because he looks to be a bit lazy at times. Reports from WA is he was having some family issues at home that troubled him through the champs. I'd say outside of Nick Watson he has the highest potential out of any small/mid sized forward in the draft.

When I saw the highlights package of Collard, the first player I immediately thought of was Jeffy....even his running gait is a mirror image. He's definitely got some tricks.

He's probably a stretch with our potential 1st rounder (likely being somewhere in the high teens), especially if names like Tholstrup, Delean and Sanchez are still on the board - ie the dynamic half forward type which I'm hoping we're targeting.

Collard though looks the type of player that could be quiet for 3 quarters, then turn a game in 15 minutes of football.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Great write up and he does sound a good fit for us. Generally when assessing any draft, do watchers and posters focus more on the negatives when assessing players later in the first round? It seems like a lot of commentary is more about what they aren’t good at, compared to what they are.

Currently holding pick 14, it seems a bit difficult to focus on the positive attributes of our targets.

I think given the exceptional ability of most of the players in the first round it's easier to point to why they aren't a top 5 pick compared to what they are good at. Why isn't Wilson as highly rated as Mckercher? Ability to win inside ball and clean hands in traffic.

But when looking at what they both bring, it's exceptional pace and the ability to pierce through a zone defence with their creativity and run.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

When I saw the highlights package of Collard, the first player I immediately thought of was Jeffy....even his running gait is a mirror image. He's definitely got some tricks.

He's probably a stretch with our potential 1st rounder (likely being somewhere in the high teens), especially if names like Tholstrup, Delean and Sanchez are still on the board - ie the dynamic half forward type which I'm hoping we're targeting.

Collard though looks the type of player that could be quiet for 3 quarters, then turn a game in 15 minutes of football.

Imo this game highlighted his ability to as you say, turn a game in 15 minutes of football the best. WA got smashed for much of the game but can see his speed and x factor in a few key moments.

 

[ray8182]

And as for the do we need another Winger question, I think the plan would be for Wilson to start off half back or half forward if we were to select him. Hollands, Acres and Binns will have those spots tied up for some time.

Will be around our first pick on draft boards.

I do have doubts about Wilson playing anywhere but wing and l also don’t think Carlton wants another half back, even if it is just for the first couple of years.

Outside the top 10 l think it’s pretty even and all the players have weaknesses that make you think twice. Wilson’s contested game worries me, unsure about tholstrup s agility and speed, how clean and polished is demattia. And with a 2 metre tall defender like Murphy does he have the athleticism for Afl key defence.

It could be tricky at Carlton’s pick because this group is not as bankable as the top 10. I keep thinking we would really need to see a lot of footage of these players to really nail down what they can and can’t do and whether they are actually suited to a role at Afl level.

At the moment lm keen to see more of tholstrup, demattia and possibly Murphy. The swans recruiting boss, beatson said how important the last few games are as the season has felt quite disjointed.Sounds like there is alot of uncertainty around many of the draftees.


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[WalshistheGOAT]

I do have doubts about Wilson playing anywhere but wing and l also don’t think Carlton wants another half back, even if it is just for the first couple of years.

Outside the top 10 l think it’s pretty even and all the players have weaknesses that make you think twice. Wilson’s contested game worries me, unsure about tholstrup s agility and speed, how clean and polished is demattia. And with a 2 metre tall defender like Murphy does he have the athleticism for Afl key defence.

It could be tricky at Carlton’s pick because this group is not as bankable as the top 10. I keep thinking we would really need to see a lot of footage of these players to really nail down what they can and can’t do and whether they are actually suited to a role at Afl level.

At the moment lm keen to see more of tholstrup, demattia and possibly Murphy. The swans recruiting boss, beatson said how important the last few games are as the season has felt quite disjointed.Sounds like there is alot of uncertainty around many of the draftees.


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Yeah agree, reckon I could name 15 players to take at our first pick this year and I wouldn't have a clue which of them would be most likely this year. Last years crop was much more bankable, I called Hollands from months out as he seemed the obvious choice and sure enough.

I'd be doing everything I could to get back into the top 10 to pinch one of O'Sullivan, Caddy or Watson if they slide down. They are just much more complete prospects than everyone after 10. 2023 and 2024 First rounders would get us close if a team was willing.

 

[ray8182]

Yeah agree, reckon I could name 15 players to take at our first pick this year and I wouldn't have a clue which of them would be most likely this year. Last years crop was much more bankable, I called Hollands from months out as he seemed the obvious choice and sure enough.

I'd be doing everything I could to get back into the top 10 to pinch one of O'Sullivan, Caddy or Watson if they slide down. They are just much more complete prospects than everyone after 10. 2023 and 2024 First rounders would get us close if a team was willing.

Yes you’re right, last year seemed so easy in picking Hollands. It was like we put in an order for what we needed and it was delivered to us nicely wrapped.


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[Blue__Balls]

Sounds like the perfect year to trade up to the top 10 for a single quality kid, and then pad the list out with some rookie upgrades and Irish recruits...

 

[Mondyboy]

I’d love Nate Caddy. But given he’s going to be out of reach, what about Ollie Murphy?


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[WalshistheGOAT]

I’d love Nate Caddy. But given he’s going to be out of reach, what about Ollie Murphy?


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O'Sullivan, Murphy and Caddy are all likely out of our pick which seems highly likely to be about pick 17-18 now after academy picks etc. We'd probably need to trade up for any of the 3, of which O'Sullivan would be my pick.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

O'Sullivan, Murphy and Caddy are all likely out of our pick which seems highly likely to be about pick 17-18 now after academy picks etc. We'd probably need to trade up for any of the 3, of which O'Sullivan would be my pick.

The issue we'd likely have is finding a trade partner. It seems that this draft has around 8-10 potential 'A-Graders' (excluding Academy F/S etc) before it starts to flatten out - so trying to trade into that A-Grade echelon may be almost an impossibility.

The one mob who would look to trade out their 1st is of course GCS, but it appears there's many other clubs that could offer them better deals than we could.

I've got no doubt that our future 1st would be on offer, but it may actually be a trade on draft night if there's a particular player still on the board that we could actively trade up to get, even if it's overs - similar to what Hawthorn did last year with Weddle.