Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[Stamos]

I do think clubs have the loophole of having say 6 list spots free, but they only draft to 38 players, so two of those spots are free for draft pick hording.

I think you mean draft to 36. So they can carry 2 extra picks, but you need to have those list spots available (ie not filled with Rookie List players).

 

[katmanblue]

I think you mean draft to 36. So they can carry 2 extra picks, but you need to have those list spots available (ie not filled with Rookie List players).

Can rookie list upgrades not come at the end of the draft?

So that say the points from the first 4-6 picks are used to match and then selections in the 6-7 round are used to upgrade rookies.

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[Stamos]

Can rookie list upgrades not come at the end of the draft?

So that say the points from the first 4-6 picks are used to match and then selections in the 6-7 round are used to upgrade rookies.

They do come at the end of the draft.
But, you have to have enough total list spots for each pick you're going to carry into the draft up to 38 Senior Listed players.

So if you're elevating rookies to count as ND pick/s, you have to have space in the rookie list to still have the vacancies.

 

[bmaurizio]

Fair call. Still puts them in a better position to grab that pick than we are. Our lack of 2nd and 3rd round picks hurts us in that regard.

Our lack of 2nd and 3rd rounders could be addressed by trading a few OOC players seeking a more permanent role or a fresh start , Silvagni, Dow & Fisher , decisions will have to be made, these trades should all return some 2nd rounders or close to the mark.
We’ll have to restructure our list, an overhaul is needed at least 4 or 5 to be delisted and a few traded .

 

[Bletch]

Our lack of 2nd and 3rd rounders could be addressed by trading a few OOC players seeking a more permanent role or a fresh start , Silvagni, Dow & Fisher , decisions will have to be made, these trades should all return some 2nd rounders or close to the mark.
We’ll have to restructure our list, an overhaul is needed at least 4 or 5 to be delisted and a few traded .

4 or 5 is relatively minimal. We have to make 3 changes minimum, due to adding Cincotta, O'Keefe, and one of the two Irishmen, which puts us 3 over the maximum list size. Add a draft pick or two, and maybe a free agent, and we're already up to 5 or 6 players that need to come off the list.

Wouldn't really call that an overhaul, though that's semantics. Agree with your basic point - a couple of trades could give us the 2nd/3rd rounders (or add them in as part of deal to trade-up our pick).

 

[katmanblue]

They do come at the end of the draft.
But, you have to have enough total list spots for each pick you're going to carry into the draft up to 38 Senior Listed players.

So if you're elevating rookies to count as ND pick/s, you have to have space in the rookie list to still have the vacancies.

But there are theoretically infinite rounds. Say a team with 5 spots free has 2x 2nd and 3x3rds and they use the points from all of those. Can't they then just wait until say the 6th or 7th round where pretty much everyone is passing, then do the 3 rookie upgrades?

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[Stamos]

But there are theoretically infinite rounds. Say a team with 5 spots free has 2x 2nd and 3x3rds and they use the points from all of those. Can't they then just wait until say the 6th or 7th round where pretty much everyone is passing, then do the 3 rookie upgrades?

When multiple picks are used to match a bid, only the highest bid moves forward to match, then the points are taken away from subsequent Picks, and the move backwards accordingly. If all the points are used from a pick, it moves to the back of the draft, it doesn't disappear.

 

[TerryWallet]

I have 2 firm (in my mind) opinions on this draft crop now for us.

I would avoid Darcy Wilson. He may have great acceleration, but he also has deceleration. Unlike Hollands who accelerates his best from contests but also into contests.

But i would do all in our power to somehow land Conor O'Sullivan. I really like the look of him as an exceptional AFL CHB/KPP. We probably won't be able to get him but i think we should try our darndest. Besides being a great individual prospect, he also suits our list management perfectly. I think he looks the bees knees and would be happy to go our hardest.

 

[Red Bull]

I have 2 firm (in my mind) opinions on this draft crop now for us.

I would avoid Darcy Wilson. He may have great acceleration, but he also has deceleration. Unlike Hollands who accelerates his best from contests but also into contests.

But i would do all in our power to somehow land Conor O'Sullivan. I really like the look of him as an exceptional AFL CHB/KPP. We probably won't be able to get him but i think we should try our darndest. Besides being a great individual prospect, he also suits our list management perfectly. I think he looks the bees knees and would be happy to go our hardest.

Sounds like O’Sullivan will be around the top 10 mark.
Giants have 2 first rounders including pick 7 which might be good enough to land O’Sullivan.
Any thoughts the Giants had of trading up with WC for Reid are now gone with North holding pick 1.
Would we offer the Giants our first rounder this year and next year for their pick 7 (O’Sullivan) keeping in mind we have the Campo twins available next year ?

 

[teagueyubeauty]

So looking at their list next year you think they are using all their cap? Even with Martin’s salary which could be as high as $1.4M? I personally don’t think so. Send him to GC and you could take on some of that. They are going into a minimum 3 year rebuild hard from here IMO.
Definitely not a moot point IMO.

They brought in 2 high dollar/multi year recruits last year.
They have Shai Bolton on 800+, Lynch on a mill a year, Balta, Grimes, Baker, Broad, Vlaustin, Prestia, Short, Nankervis, Graham would be on differing levels of very good coin.

The moula is spent, they were loading up to get a Geelong style stay at the top.
Always thought Taranto and Hopper weren’t the player types for them and the way they’ve played for 6-7 years, make their midfield too slow


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[TerryWallet]

Sounds like O’Sullivan will be around the top 10 mark.
Giants have 2 first rounders including pick 7 which might be good enough to land O’Sullivan.
Any thoughts the Giants had of trading up with WC for Reid are now gone with North holding pick 1.
Would we offer the Giants our first rounder this year and next year for their pick 7 (O’Sullivan) keeping in mind we have the Campo twins available next year ?

I wouldn't have thoughts of the Camporeale's in my calculations. Way to early to value them and if they will be before our 2024 first pick. The good one may, but he may not.

But just on list calculation, O'Sullivans talent and overall package, and that i can't really see the available mid/flank typers available getting much of a chance to flourish in OUR team that will be in win now mode for 5 years, i would offer everything we possibly can(sanely) for O'Sullivan. Imo.

The problem is i don't think GWS are in the business of downgrading 1st Rounders. They look up, not down. And we probs haven't got enough for GC's pick. Maybe if Dimma likes one of our available players to add....maybe?. But i'd have a real crack at every possible chance.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

I have 2 firm (in my mind) opinions on this draft crop now for us.

I would avoid Darcy Wilson. He may have great acceleration, but he also has deceleration. Unlike Hollands who accelerates his best from contests but also into contests.

But i would do all in our power to somehow land Conor O'Sullivan. I really like the look of him as an exceptional AFL CHB/KPP. We probably won't be able to get him but i think we should try our darndest. Besides being a great individual prospect, he also suits our list management perfectly. I think he looks the bees knees and would be happy to go our hardest.

I’m in on a CHB, just think it’s our real last chance at top end talent for quite sometime and it’s not the end of the world to use next years first to move up the draft board as long as it’s for need.
We need developing Key back and impact half forward flank types

GWS trade would help if they have one/some good prospects in 2024 draft, they may have some this year but clearly they’re not top end talent. If they do next year then our future first could be tasty for them


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[Red Bull]

I wouldn't have thoughts of the Camporeale's in my calculations. Way to early to value them and if they will be before our 2024 first pick. The good one may, but he may not.

But just on list calculation, O'Sullivans talent and overall package, and that i can't really see the available mid/flank typers available getting much of a chance to flourish in OUR team that will be in win now mode for 5 years, i would offer everything we possibly can(sanely) for O'Sullivan. Imo.

The problem is i don't think GWS are in the business of downgrading 1st Rounders. They look up, not down. And we probs haven't got enough for GC's pick. Maybe if Dimma likes one of our available players to add....maybe?. But i'd have a real crack at every possible chance.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Agree GWS prefer “looking up”.
Let’s say they considered our offer.
They would then hold their and our natural first rounders this year and our FF.
That might be an attractive bundling of picks to GC for their first rounder or even to WC who are in serious rebuild mode for their first rounder.
Anyways … I agree a serious tilt at O’Sullivan through the draft is a sound strategy leaving FA as the option for addressing a power half forward/mid …

 

[The Return of the Paf]

I have 2 firm (in my mind) opinions on this draft crop now for us.

I would avoid Darcy Wilson. He may have great acceleration, but he also has deceleration. Unlike Hollands who accelerates his best from contests but also into contests.

But i would do all in our power to somehow land Conor O'Sullivan. I really like the look of him as an exceptional AFL CHB/KPP. We probably won't be able to get him but i think we should try our darndest. Besides being a great individual prospect, he also suits our list management perfectly. I think he looks the bees knees and would be happy to go our hardest.

I'm not confident enough about any player in this draft (who'd be available) to give up an additional (future) first round pick for.

 

[DangerousD]

As Stamos says a few posts back, we can always ask. But it's unlikely. Our first pick this year is going to be at least 16 and if we go deep into September could be in the early 20s (due to academy and father/sons). Other sides will be looking at our finish to this year, and rating our next year's first similarly, and again there are a few father/sons early next year - so around pick 20. What do you think is a reasonable trade for say a pick 16 and 20? Be very fortunate to get into the top 10 this year I'd think.

I agree with ferris - keep next year's first and live trade it if a bid comes in before it. Bank a bunch of 3rd/4th round picks for points (we can trade out our 4ths from this year into next). Consider trading our future 2nd into a 2nd round pick this year. See if we have any player trades that might get an extra pick (or help with trading up).

Off memory and it was a little while ago but didn’t we trade two early seconds for pick 13 to get Charlie?

16 and 20 if trading for points are worth more than pick 5.

Whatever we do trade wise, I just want us to add some more kids, we can’t get complacent and too attached to what we have.

2-3 kids in the top 30-40

 

[Aphrodite]

2023 AFL State Draft Combines list announced

The AFL has today released the names of 55 players invited to attend one of the 2023 AFL State Draft Combines.

www.afl.com.au

 

[katmanblue]

When multiple picks are used to match a bid, only the highest bid moves forward to match, then the points are taken away from subsequent Picks, and the move backwards accordingly. If all the points are used from a pick, it moves to the back of the draft, it doesn't disappear.

Gotcha. Thanks [emoji106]

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[AT97]

http://archive.today/eTLSS

 

[ferrisb]

Who is a good candidate for pick 18?

Asking for a friend's team...

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Who is a good candidate for pick 18?

Asking for a friend's team...

Harry Reed

 

[Coona Blues]

Harry Reed

Was that meant to be Harly?

 

[Wickzki]

Was that meant to be Harly?

Hardly Read

 

[Stamos]

From the Hun

https://archive.md/pH2zD

 

[Sin City]

From the Hun

https://archive.md/pH2zD

can see why Croft would look at his options. He’ll be behind a few at the Bulldogs. In the mid to late first round at the moment he’d be a chance to get to Geelong or Essendon or maybe North with that Port pick.

By the same token Sanders isn’t the best fit at North. They already have LDU, Simpkin, Wardlaw, Phillips, Powell while T Thomas has shown a fair bit on the ball late in the year and they’ll be adding Harley Reid. They probably should move Phillips and Powell on to fill other areas of need if they’re adding Sanders to that lot.

Some info I have is that Riley Hardeman is rated a bit higher by recruiters than he is on BigFooty. I don’t know whether that will end up counting for anything because the WA guys have been going a bit later than they should have over the last few years and keeping landing in the laps of Freo and West Coast.

 

[Stamos]

Some info I have is that Riley Hardeman is rated a bit higher by recruiters than he is on BigFooty.

It sounds like after the top 10 or so, Clubs' ratings of the next 30 is going to vary widely.