Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[The Return of the Paf]

Other than around 7 names, I think some draft boards are going to be a lot different. Pick 8 onwards might get you the player you desire at a wide range of positions.

Yes, I have it roughly like that with a player in the proposed top 9 or 10 slipping slightly due to some club chasing a specific need. Beyond that, the next 20 or so selections will be wide open.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Fisher and Dow should get us decent picks. hopefully around 35-45 which we could then package up or trade our first back a few spots to end up with 3 inside 35.

Theres certainly possibilities around both but our draft hand is definitely quite ordinary as it is after our incredible turnaround this second half of the year.

Maybe I’m looking at it with my Carlton hat on but I reckon if you’re offering a contracted player a 5 year deal on good money to move across to your club you need to pay more than pick 35 in a draft where only 50 picks will be taken.

Yes we can use his money better elsewhere but Fisher is not a bad player to hold on to if we feel we are getting stiffed at the trade table. AFL quality.

I want their future 2nd, even if we have to throw something back. Or the AFL can conjure up a random pick that suits us. Pick 39 or 51 is basically nothing when considering the depth of the draft.

 

[DangerousD]

Maybe I’m looking at it with my Carlton hat on but I reckon if you’re offering a contracted player a 5 year deal on good money to move across to your club you need to pay more than pick 35 in a draft where only 50 picks will be taken.

Yes we can use his money better elsewhere but Fisher is not a bad player to hold on to if we feel we are getting stiffed at the trade table. AFL quality.

I want their future 2nd, even if we have to throw something back. Or the AFL can conjure up a random pick that suits us. Pick 39 or 51 is basically nothing when considering the depth of the draft.

When the Fisher talk of NM came up a while ago it was suggested we would accept a lower pick due to Nth taking his contract.

I think Fish has 3 years left on his deal which makes it interesting but it seems Nth are extending that deal.

Fish isn’t in the best 25 this year, you don’t offer picks in the 20s for that.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

When the Fisher talk of NM came up a while ago it was suggested we would accept a lower pick due to Nth taking his contract.

I think Fish has 3 years left on his deal which makes it interesting but it seems Nth are extending that deal.

Fish isn’t in the best 25 this year, you don’t offer picks in the 20s for that.

Are we selling a solid but expendable depth player, or are North buying an AFL quality talent on a 5 year deal.

I guess his value depends on who is pushing for the move. 39 or 51 seems low. He is not out of contract and we aren’t Freo shedding salary for a big fish.

 

[Stamos]

When the Fisher talk of NM came up a while ago it was suggested we would accept a lower pick due to Nth taking his contract.

I think Fish has 3 years left on his deal which makes it interesting but it seems Nth are extending that deal.

Fish isn’t in the best 25 this year, you don’t offer picks in the 20s for that.

Fish has 2 more years of contract.

 

[DangerousD]

Are we selling a solid but expendable depth player, or are North buying an AFL quality talent on a 5 year deal.

I guess his value depends on who is pushing for the move. 39 or 51 seems low. He is not out of contract and we aren’t Freo shedding salary for a big fish.

I’d say that Fish has realised he’s not in our best 25 and is looking at a team that will give him first team football.

I think 39 for a player as far down the pecking order as Fish is, is a good deal.

I wouldn’t discount the idea that we will be happy to get some $$$ off the books.

 

[Stamos]

I’d say that Fish has realised he’s not in our best 25 and is looking at a team that will give him first team football.

I think 39 for a player as far down the pecking order as Fish is, is a good deal.

I wouldn’t discount the idea that we will be happy to get some $$$ off the books.

There's a few different elements with Fish.
The 5 year contract offer raises his trade value. According to all the draft experts, the value of later picks (after say 30) is diminished in this year's draft, due both the seemingly shallow pool and also to the fact that a lot of clubs will be taking low/minimum picks this year.
Then there's the possibility that we're trying to dump the contract, which would lower what we're prepared to take.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[The Sultan]

We got (or lost) any future round picks this year ? Other than our third round pick to freo for the hack that freo lowballed … acres I think his name was

 

[Stamos]

We got (or lost) any future round picks this year ? Other than our third round pick to freo for the hack that freo lowballed … acres I think his name was

We traded our 2nd to the Filth for pick 30 which we used to get Cowan.
And then our 3rd for Acres.

This is a great resource to keep tack of draft picks:

Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

A family member who works as a recruiter over in WA for a big VIC club is coming over for the rest of the finals to watch the games, so I'm keen to pick his brain on players like Tholstrup, Hall, Collard, Sanchez and Edwards in case he has any intel on WA players on the market end of year.

A lot of the WA kids this year aside from Curtin seem very polarizing players who are wildly inconsistent.

Well without delving too much into the nitty gritty of things and trying to give away as little as possible in reference to the club he works for... Basically mentioned that Collard is a top 10 talent in the draft but a complete basket case on and off field which was also mentioned above. Gives away frees for abusing umpires, disrespectful and gets into fights with teammates at training, professionalism standards off the field in terms of recovery and doing extras is abysmal. Said if a club takes him and their development group can get him acting the right way he'll be looked at as a complete steal, but every chance he's out of the system fairly quickly too.

Mentioned that the crop is extremely shallow and theres about 30 players they believe are worthy of a pick in the ND and the rest would be either rookies or train ons in pre-season. Curtin and Hardeman were the favourite two and would be the only current WA boys they'd look at taking if they fall to their picks which is fairly unlikely supposedly.

Sounds like WA footy has been a pretty poor standard this year which has made evaluating players difficult.

Mentioned Tholstrup is a very hard one in particular as he's been played senior footy all year but had to play in roles that don't suit him - Defensive fwd, tagger, down back etc. Said he'd probably have dominated Colts level if he played there in a more offensive role all year but given he hasn't been afforded that luxury its difficult to rate his year but he thinks he's going to be a good player at AFL level, not for his club though.

 

[lily of laguna]

Brad Fisher I think went 72. Couldn't kick over a jam jar but I loved him though. Unlucky to land on 99 games poor bastard

I understand selection integrity and that it is a professional sport needing analytical decisions but leaving him on 99 is I believe a black mark against Ratts.

Fisher wasn’t going to the deal breaker for a successful season on the back of playing 1 more game.

In fact his milestone might have spurred on some extra efforts! (Maybe)








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[ferrisb]

I understand selection integrity and that it is a professional sport needing analytical decisions but leaving Brad Fisher on 99 is I believe a black mark against Ratts.

Also cost us any priority access to Fish offspring.

Ironically a year later we recruited Rowe...

 

[ferrisb]

Re Z Fisher... Being contacted increases your trade value.... UNLESS you are on an outsized contract and the player's current club isn't super keen on keeping them.

In that scenario (as is probably the case here), the contract actually lowers the player's trade value.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Re Z Fisher... Being contacted increases your trade value.... UNLESS you are on an outsized contract and the player's current club isn't super keen on keeping them.

In that scenario (as is probably the case here), the contract actually lowers the player's trade value.

Stop giving us the bad news, ferrisb.

 

[Stamos]

Re Z Fisher... Being contacted increases your trade value.... UNLESS you are on an outsized contract and the player's current club isn't super keen on keeping them.

In that scenario (as is probably the case here), the contract actually lowers the player's trade value.

North supposedly offering Fish a 5 year contract counters any notion that we're trying to dump his contract.

 

[ferrisb]

North supposedly offering Fish a 5 year contract counters any notion that we're trying to dump his contract.

I'm probably reading too much into this, but my (pure speculative) guess is that has something to do with his salary.

Hypothetically Fish is on $500k for the next couple of years. And North want to pay him $350-400k.

A three-year contract only puts him slightly ahead of staying with Carlton. The extra years makes it worth him leaving and helps North to smooth out his current Carlton contract.

 

[SurreyBlue]

North supposedly offering Fish a 5 year contract counters any notion that we're trying to dump his contract.

Do we get pick 3 for such a contract as well?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Bring me the Schoe!

With so much upside left in him given his rather chubby figure atm he'd just about be my first pick at our first rounder though I think he'll be available a bit further down than that.

 

[Stamos]

I'm probably reading too much into this, but my (pure speculative) guess is that has something to do with his salary.

Hypothetically Fish is on $500k for the next couple of years. And North want to pay him $350-400k.

A three-year contract only puts him slightly ahead of staying with Carlton. The extra years makes it worth him leaving and helps North to smooth out his current Carlton contract.

Maybe, but I don't think so.
Given we extended Fish last year, with 18 months still on his contract and some big signings to come (Charlie/H/TDK) I'd be surprised if he's on that much. Also, North have a stack of salary space. I'm not sure that they'd be offering a player less than what he's on to leave a club challenging for a flag to come to a team that's a long way off.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Doubtful we get a pick better than 40 for Fish no matter anyones argument.

Anyways, is Harley Reid still in play for the Navy Blues?

 

[ctwenty1]

We traded our 2nd to the Filth for pick 30 which we used to get Cowan.
And then our 3rd for Acres.

This is a great resource to keep tack of draft picks:

Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

not sure about that third rounder for acres.... LOL!!!

 

[Aphrodite]

not sure about that third rounder for acres.... LOL!!!

3rd Round - Pick 54

 

[katmanblue]

I’d say that Fish has realised he’s not in our best 25 and is looking at a team that will give him first team football.

I think 39 for a player as far down the pecking order as Fish is, is a good deal.

I wouldn’t discount the idea that we will be happy to get some $$$ off the books.

They're offering him.5 years on decent money.

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[Pablito]

Whatever we get for Fisher, give it to GC for Hollands.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

3rd Round - Pick 54

And I'm tipping that Collingwood aren't all that chuffed at the moment with trading 2nd round picks in last year's draft.
Their supporters' death riding has gone curiously quiet during the second half of the season.....