Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[Sickblue]

So we have 22, 28 (really 26) which will get pushed out 6 or so picks due to academy and FS’s plus our future first to play with. I’d love to get pick 8 from the cats but feel paying all these picks is overs (appreciate that’s what it would probably take), so with this in mind I’d love to see Austin get to work and use these 3 picks to turn it into 2 picks in the teens as I feel there is some genuine talent in the 12-18 range of this draft that could really suit our needs. Could we make this happen?

 

[Ninja Worrier]

There's talk of only 50 players being drafted this year. If we're confident that Ben swallows up our F1 it could be the year to pull the trigger if it means we get one of Sanders\Caddy.

Not sure if cats would go for it but I'd ask for a F3 back to help pay for the camporeale boys.

We end up with Sanders/Caddy, and #50 and some points for next year

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

I think a good exercise re our small/med fwds and whether we should be targeting them in this years draft is to ask ourselves how many of ours would get a game at the two grand final teams this season, Collingwood and Brisbane?

I'd argue only Martin and even he'd be a 50/50 call.

Give us Geelong's group of Miers, Close, Stengle and Rohan and I'd be extremely confident in us taking the flag in 24. With our current mix though I think a lot has to go right with the development of Durds and Mots and I don't think either are certainties to make it.
I think theres considerably higher quality options in those roles in this draft, some we may just have to shift up a bit to get to.

Next years draft is fairly midfield heavy but theres a number of OOC options via trade who could fill that void too. Interested to see what Austin does.

On the surface this looks true.
But are our small/med. forwards so bad and underdeveloped, or is it more about our slow and poor delivery into the forward half on most occasions?
Even our stellar marking forwards struggle at times to make good position and end up taking shots at goal from difficult areas.
Collingwood and Brisbane transition from defence faster and more efficiently than we do.
If we don't absolutely dominate the contests, we get get run off our feet with opposition rebound.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Zero Hanger has us taking Mitch Edwards in their first mock draft. I’d be stunned if this was the case.

2023 AFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-27 (first edition)

The draft is a month away! Here's how the first round could unfold👇

www.zerohanger.com

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[swuzzlebubble]

JHF with less speed

Not finished yet, still watching a few more games

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

On the surface this looks true.
But are our small/med. forwards so bad and underdeveloped, or is it more about our slow and poor delivery into the forward half on most occasions?
Even our stellar marking forwards struggle at times to make good position and end up taking shots at goal from difficult areas.
Collingwood and Brisbane transition from defence faster and more efficiently than we do.
If we don't absolutely dominate the contests, we get get run off our feet with opposition rebound.

My opinion this.

Owies, Durdin, Motlop, Fogarty and Cuningham all have major limitations as players and in comparison to the other top 8 teams they are a class below most of their small options.

Martin is our one small/med fwd that has a well rounded game and unfortunately he's usually injured. We saw this year how big of a difference Martin made to our fwd line when he came in and played some consistent footy.

Mots and Durds are still young so we'll wait and see on them.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Now Elijah is on board, can I ask what makes so many on here want small to medium forwards with one both of our picks? Genuine question as I think our depth is now pretty good in that area as we saw around the finals.

1 The fact is we're taking a calculated risk with EH so need to consider it might not work out
2 Most of our current small/medium forwards I would call role players rather than genuine best 25 on outright talent.
So there is scope to upgrade in this area.

 

[Bletch]

Zero Hanger has us taking Mitch Edwards in their first mock draft. I’d be stunned if this was the case.

2023 AFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-27 (first edition)

The draft is a month away! Here's how the first round could unfold👇

www.zerohanger.com

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I like Mitch Edwards, prob best pure ruck in the draft (not counting Read as a pure ruck). He's a monster size. Really doubt he gets to 27, and would prob be the best player available if he did. But yes, we're not gonna have 3 developing ruckmen on our list. Only way we'd consider this is if we were to pay out Mirkov.

Think we'd be looking for a dynamic mid/fwd and a tall defender with our two main picks (assuming we don't trade up). Might be slim pickings at 27-28 for the mid - maybe one of Demattia, Tholstrup, Charlie Edwards or Collard falls to that pick, but more likely Moir, Freijah, Johnston, Gothard or Sanchez. Each with their good points, and not so. For the defender, it's a bid on McCabe if he's there (and Hawks will match), then Schoenmaker or Zakostelsky. Can't imagine Murphy will still be on the board. But who knows.

 

[Del9Sep24]

My opinion this.

Owies, Durdin, Motlop, Fogarty and Cuningham all have major limitations as players and in comparison to the other top 8 teams they are a class below most of their small options.

Martin is our one small/med fwd that has a well rounded game and unfortunately he's usually injured. We saw this year how big of a difference Martin made to our fwd line when he came in and played some consistent footy.

Mots and Durds are still young so we'll wait and see on them.

Motlop and cuningham are a class above along with Martin.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Zero Hanger has us taking Mitch Edwards in their first mock draft. I’d be stunned if this was the case.

2023 AFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-27 (first edition)

The draft is a month away! Here's how the first round could unfold👇

www.zerohanger.com

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Especially given Charlie Edwards is still on the board at our pick in their mock draft

 

[BlueTongue]

1 The fact is we're taking a calculated risk with EH so need to consider it might not work out
2 Most of our current small/medium forwards I would call role players rather than genuine best 25 on outright talent.
So there is scope to upgrade in this area.

Not sure I'd be getting yet more smalls when so many of our current fleet have either ?? over them or have yet to develop.
The last thing we want is more of the same, especially when we need quality Mids developing, and a very real priority for another KPD.
My 2cents anyway.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Not sure I'd be getting yet more smalls when so many of our current fleet have either ?? over them or have yet to develop.
The last thing we want is more of the same, especially when we need quality Mids developing, and a very real priority for another KPD.
My 2cents anyway.

I've never understood the 'player to fit a position' priority in drafting unless you are desperate. Get some players in with a number of characteristics we can utilise' and then find a position for them. I personally don't think there will be any standout 'talls' in our draft range. If it were up to me and they were still available then I'd be drafting Charlie Edwards and Moir with our picks but if that fails then the next couple bubbling under are both small forwards.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Not sure I'd be getting yet more smalls when so many of our current fleet have either ?? over them or have yet to develop.
The last thing we want is more of the same, especially when we need quality Mids developing, and a very real priority for another KPD.
My 2cents anyway.

We've got Young and Durdin as back up KPD's. Young only 24 years old and about as good as you could ask for a back up after being pushed out for Kemp, Gov and Marchbank this year. Widely seen as B22 and comfortably good enough at the end of 2022 until he hit a form slump this year. Not too many teams in the league have a player as capable as Young sitting in the sheds.

Our small/med sized forwards remain our biggest list hole after addressing our wings last year. Other stuff like our midfield mix needing a touch more speed and finding our best mix of talls are all non issues in the grand scheme of things.

If i was picking our 5 weakest players from our 22 in 2023, 4 of them would probably be our small forwards. Kemp or Hollands would be the other one but both have shown heaps of signs of further improvement, Kemp especially has immense talent.

 

[Arr0w]

Not that I think we need another mid/3rd tall defender at the moment, but I do like Will Patton as a late pick

 

[DangerousD]

Now Elijah is on board, can I ask what makes so many on here want small to medium forwards with one both of our picks? Genuine question as I think our depth is now pretty good in that area as we saw around the finals.

Where do you see Hollands playing?

I think the club sees him as a mid and he replaces Dow in the mid rotation, he might get the nod as a half forward.

With that in mind I still think we are short for quality medium/small forwards.

Martin showed me how good he was this year, I’ve been a long time doubter, I still doubt his durability.

Durdin looks like he has all the tools but isn’t putting it together,

Motlop I like and has improved each year, I wonder if he becomes the half forward leaving a small forward role.

Across the board, where do you see our weaknesses?

Mine is KPD and half forward, I expect Austin to target these two spots, mostly because of the areas he covered last year and what is expected to come next year (campo twins)

 

[DangerousD]

I’ve seen Edwards highlights, looks great, so why isn’t he rated higher?

What’s the knock?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I’ve seen Edwards highlights, looks great, so why isn’t he rated higher?

What’s the knock?

Think Cuningham but 190cm. Good with ball in hand but doesn't get involved enough as a midfielder compared to others and can be inconsistent in disposal/flashes of brilliance.

Not sure how much of that would still apply to Cunners if he had a consistent run at it over the last 5-6 years though, I think he was improving week on week before his ACL and starting to be a consistent performer. I'd imagine he'll be playing forward for the rest of his career now with how many injuries his body has had.

Perhaps Edwards becomes that player we all envisioned Cuningham going on to be a few years back. Certainly has the tools

 

[Bletch]

Bangers has posted a 2-round phantom, with us taking Gothard and Jiath.

And as a treat out of boredom, here's a 2 round Phantom draft I made immediately post trade period. I have very little idea of list needs so apologies if you got a player a spot you're stocked for. Missing picks are because of matched bids, or in Melbourne's case because I think they'll only take 2 players

View attachment 1836901

Still think we'd go a tall with the 2nd pick.

 

[Stamos]

Where do you see Hollands playing?

I think the club sees him as a mid and he replaces Dow in the mid rotation, he might get the nod as a half forward.

“We definitely see him as that forward-half player who can push through the midfield. That’s an area we’d like to keep bolstering and we think Elijah is going to help us.”

What they said: Austin wraps up trade period

Nick Austin speaks on Carlton's business at the 2023 Continental Tyres Trade Period.

www.carltonfc.com.au

 

[Matty411]

Where do you see Hollands playing?

I think the club sees him as a mid and he replaces Dow in the mid rotation, he might get the nod as a half forward.

With that in mind I still think we are short for quality medium/small forwards.

Martin showed me how good he was this year, I’ve been a long time doubter, I still doubt his durability.

Durdin looks like he has all the tools but isn’t putting it together,

Motlop I like and has improved each year, I wonder if he becomes the half forward leaving a small forward role.

Across the board, where do you see our weaknesses?

Mine is KPD and half forward, I expect Austin to target these two spots, mostly because of the areas he covered last year and what is expected to come next year (campo twins)

EH plays HFF next year with exposure in the middle. Long term I see him replacing Crippa as the big body midfielder.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Bangers has posted a 2-round phantom, with us taking Gothard and Jiath.

Still think we'd go a tall with the 2nd pick.

ZZ available there

 

[Blue By Blood]

Think Cuningham but 190cm. Good with ball in hand but doesn't get involved enough as a midfielder compared to others and can be inconsistent in disposal/flashes of brilliance.

Not sure how much of that would still apply to Cunners if he had a consistent run at it over the last 5-6 years though, I think he was improving week on week before his ACL and starting to be a consistent performer. I'd imagine he'll be playing forward for the rest of his career now with how many injuries his body has had.

Perhaps Edwards becomes that player we all envisioned Cuningham going on to be a few years back. Certainly has the tools

For me I’d be very concerned and wary of drafting any player that doesn’t get involved enough or find much of the ball at junior level. Ball winning ability is huge as it shows an understanding of how the game unfolds, where to position, etc. It’s a huge signal of footy IQ. It’s very rare for a low possession player to improve that significantly once at AFL level.

Cuningham is exactly this. A class act with ball in hand and he makes things happen. You want the ball in his hands delivering into the forward 50. But the issue is he gets lost and you have to wonder if this is low footy IQ, a lack of fitness, laziness and/or an unwillingness to continually work to the open spots, or is it concentration lapses. Don’t get me wrong Cuners is one of my favourites but we need to be careful drafting low possession mid/HFFs.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

For me I’d be very concerned and wary of drafting any player that doesn’t get involved enough or find much of the ball at junior level. Ball winning ability is huge as it shows an understanding of how the game unfolds, where to position, etc. It’s a huge signal of footy IQ. It’s very rare for a low possession player to improve that significantly once at AFL level.

Cuningham is exactly this. A class act with ball in hand and he makes things happen. You want the ball in his hands delivering into the forward 50. But the issue is he gets lost and you have to wonder if this is low footy IQ, a lack of fitness, laziness and/or an unwillingness to continually work to the open spots, or is it concentration lapses. Don’t get me wrong Cuners is one of my favourites but we need to be careful drafting low possession mid/HFFs.

I think we are talking about a player who gets roughly 21 possessions per game rather than 31, as opposed to a player who would be lucky to get 18. It's the difference between possibly being available at our pick and probably not. I'd rather draft a player with more talent, who plays within himself, rather than someone who busts a gut but has too many limitations to have the required impact at AFL level.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Corey Durdin has genuine speed, smarts and mongrel. I see him as a vital piece if he can get some continuity after two injury punctuated seasons.

Jesse Motlop has great potential and great goal sense. I believe he has the potential to become our x-factor small. He does, however have to get some consistency. Hopefully another preseason after a taste of success will convince the boy to do the work and have the focus to take that step.

Matt Owies is a heart and soul player who has turned himself into a valuable and mostly consistent contributor. His disposal remains an issue, very much suggesting he can be upgraded.

Fogarty, I was enamoured by before he was drafted. The ultimate contributor. Tackling machine and a very effective link player. Is not really a goal kicker and has limited disposal. Can be a piece as he is also capable in the midfield.

David Cuningham remains a potential star, but is running out of time. He is a much lower possession player than he should be. This year will be make or break.

Jack Martin is an enigma. He makes the side better, but unlikely he will ever attain his monumental potential. A hybrid who is a genuine threat in the air, he tackles and hits with venom and undoubtedly makes us a better functioning team. It remains to be seem if he can stay on the park for longer periods going forward.

Elijah Hollands can be an absolute star of the game and as such threatens to complete our forward line, as well as adding layers to our midfield. I would suggest for the next couple of seasons he complements Martin as our medium forward version of the “strike player” as anointed by the press of late.

By my calculations Martin has between 1 and 3 seasons ahead of him, four at the most, due to soft tissue injuries never completely going away.

Cuningham needs to step up and play consistent footy. EH is going to make it much harder for him to hold a spot in the top team. His tackling pressure is decent, but not to the levels of Owies or Fog. DC has always had excellent potential, but may struggle to hold a spot with our mix.

For your question, I see a long term spot for a third small forward dynamo. I am pretty sure they would want either a pacy manic type (O’Driscoll), a proven smart player with the skill set to impact all round as a modern forward (Gothard, maybe Sanchez, although he is as much mid). Plenty here are enamoured with the Collard or perhaps Delean x-factor types who are less consistent and less team oriented somewhat loose canons, who I doubt will be on our radar.

I like Martin, Owies, Fogarty and Cuningham and all could go to new levels as the structures consolidate, but if Elijah, Durdin and Motlop fire, another kid with quality disposal, goal smarts and defensive instincts could be just what we ordered.
There are a few options around our picks.

I would use the other high pick for a KPD or an outside or balanced midfield runner. We will either have a late pick or a rookie pick if we elevate a second rookie from the current list. I would be somewhat happy if we went for a KPD with one of our early picks and a mid depth or developing with the late or rookie spot or vice versa with a more speculative KPD (hidden gem) later in proceedings.
There are a variety of options around our picks.

Started watching the Colts grand final last night, O'Driscoll has some serious wheels

 

[Coona Blues]

Not that I think we need another mid/3rd tall defender at the moment, but I do like Will Patton as a late pick

Given the players in the range, I would love to hear “the General” has grown a centimetre or two to be close to key position height. Has top notch disposal and a defensive ethic second to none in this draft. Super disciplined and focussed, currently capable of playing on anyone in the draft class.