Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[macky99]

It’s not the same as Daniher to Sydney, he wasn’t out of contract so Essendon could dictate terms.

TDK is out of contract

Carlton can still effectively match the offer for example from Geelong.
Clubs are aware that if they courting players they have to reach a fair outcome for both parties.
A 2nd round pick does nothing for us, l hope he stays but unless a 1st round pick is on the table l don't see him going anywhere.

 

[BlackGoanna]

It’s not the same as Daniher to Sydney, he wasn’t out of contract so Essendon could dictate terms.

TDK is out of contract

Clubs can’t just dictate terms. If we don’t get a reasonable offer he will likely stay . What are his options otherwise PSD or ND. Players won’t take the risk of ending up in a draft scenario


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[The Return of the Paf]

Harley Reid and Nick Watson would be the only two players imo from games and footage I’ve watched so far this season that would make last years top 10…
In what was predicted as a boom draft leading into the year it’s turned out to be by my eye so far as one of the more overrated drafts so far with all of the preseason hype…

Cadman
Ashcroft (f/s)
Sheezel
Wardlaw
Humphrey
McKenzie
Clarke
Gibney
Phillipou
Fletcher (f/s)
George
Jefferson


Are all players i highly rated last year and would be comfortably in front of the next batch ive watched over so far from this current drat year, doesn’t have the overall class or xfactor as last year, a few question marks on many of this years “top end talents” ….

Keep DeKoning
Keep 2023 draft first pick maybe split depending on finishing position
Keep our future first
Trade in 2025 picks for Campo twins
Trade in our future 2024 2nd/3rd rounders
Cincotta main list
Ramshaw & Dozzi must be listed, best young talent we’ve produced since recruit from within
Trade out Fisher & Silvagni
McGovern $Contract/ trade value
Get in a couple of young positional requirement players from other club lists for early 2nd/ 3rd rounders
Keep Dow

Cunners certainly keep if he doesn’t break down again this season
Martin contracted another year needs to not break down once again…

1. Silvagni - up for trade
2. O’Brien - delist
3. Fogarty - delist
5. McGovern - trade?
6. Carroll - up for trade
7. Plowman - delist
8. Marchbank - delist
9. Fisher - up for trade
10. Philp - delist
11. Ed Curnow - retired/reserves captain
12. Mirkov - delist







No

Which is what I would have predicted if I had only commented on it weeks, or even months, ago. I have seen next to b****r all of what been happening in the juniors but on paper this year's crop just don't read as well as they were cranked up to be. I actually had the radical plan of trading into next year's draft. However, I still think we are putting too much attention on form over raw ability. Some just aren't ready when we want them to be.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Harley Reid and Nick Watson would be the only two players imo from games and footage I’ve watched so far this season that would make last years top 10…
In what was predicted as a boom draft leading into the year it’s turned out to be by my eye so far as one of the more overrated drafts so far with all of the preseason hype…

Cadman
Ashcroft (f/s)
Sheezel
Wardlaw
Humphrey
McKenzie
Clarke
Gibney
Phillipou
Fletcher (f/s)
George
Jefferson


Are all players i highly rated last year and would be comfortably in front of the next batch ive watched over so far from this current drat year, doesn’t have the overall class or xfactor as last year, a few question marks on many of this years “top end talents” ….

Jed Walter would go number 1 over Cadman or Ashcroft if he was in last years draft, as would Reid.

The contrast between the two draft classes from 2022-2023 is the lack of quality inside mids. 2023 is without a doubt stacked with more 'xfactor' and talls. Reid, Walter, Watson, Caddy, Duursma, Edwards, Curtin and Moir are all exactly that. Much like in the AFL though xfactor players and KPP prospects need a competent midfield to function at their best. 2022 and so far looking like 2024 too are stacked with stereotypical classy A grade midfield talents and often they are the ones putting up prolific numbers in their draft years which can make the draft cohort look better than they are.

I've said from the start of the year that theres a lot of players in this draft who are really good prospects for us, not so much genuinely rebuilding clubs like WCE and North etc as they generally want those A grade mids first and foremost. Reid, Watson, Caddy, Duursma and lesser lights like Delean, Callinan, Tholstrup etc all fit a need for us as we have a really well set spine already. Someone like Richmond wouldn't have anywhere near the same interest in those players though, probably part of the reason why they chose to trade out of this year entirely.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Lol speaking of Walter The draft prospect that “five or six clubs” would take ahead of Harley Reid at pick one

 

[macky99]

Which is what I would have predicted if I had only commented on it weeks, or even months ago. I have seen next to b****r all of what been happening in the juniors but on paper this year's crop just don't read as well as they were cranked up to be. I actually had the radical plan of trading into next year's draft. However, I still think we are putting too much attention on form over raw ability. Some just aren't ready when we want them to be.

Any club that can get a few early selections will do very well.

We definitely need a quality mid sized forward & another quick mid fielder, hopefully we can find a extra selection.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Which is what I would have predicted if I had only commented on it weeks, or even months ago. I have seen next to b****r all of what been happening in the juniors but on paper this year's crop just don't read as well as they were cranked up to be. I actually had the radical plan of trading into next year's draft. However, I still think we are putting too much attention on form over raw ability. Some just aren't ready when we want them to be.

For sure, many with some raw ability strengths who’s overall games may blossom into more complete players in time…

Atm there’s some reasonably good players amongst the first round but not to the level of standards or expectations they were highly regarded at coming into the season…

Look there’s always good kids every year scattered throughout the draft, hopefully we can bring a few types in that we need list wise…

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Lol speaking of Walter The draft prospect that “five or six clubs” would take ahead of Harley Reid at pick one

Harley Reid misses 6 weeks of footy after being concussed?
Crikey, that sounds extreme.
It's either been a very bad one, or he's hiding from West Coast recruiters.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Harley Reid misses 6 weeks of footy after being concussed?
Crikey, that sounds extreme.
It's either been a very one, or he's hiding from West Coast recruiters.

Pretty sure this is footage of him on the way to Melbourne Airport for a gap year in Europe

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Pretty sure this is footage of him on the way to Melbourne Airport for a gap year in Europe

Looks like an entire bus load of top picks.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Jed Walter would go number 1 over Cadman or Ashcroft if he was in last years draft, as would Reid.

The contrast between the two draft classes from 2022-2023 is the lack of quality inside mids. 2023 is without a doubt stacked with more 'xfactor' and talls. Reid, Walter, Watson, Caddy, Duursma, Edwards, Curtin and Moir are all exactly that. Much like in the AFL though xfactor players and KPP prospects need a competent midfield to function at their best. 2022 and so far looking like 2024 too are stacked with stereotypical classy A grade midfield talents and often they are the ones putting up prolific numbers in their draft years which can make the draft cohort look better than they are.

I've said from the start of the year that theres a lot of players in this draft who are really good prospects for us, not so much genuinely rebuilding clubs like WCE and North etc as they generally want those A grade mids first and foremost. Reid, Watson, Caddy, Duursma and lesser lights like Delean, Callinan, Tholstrup etc all fit a need for us as we have a really well set spine already. Someone like Richmond wouldn't have anywhere near the same interest in those players though, probably part of the reason why they chose to trade out of this year entirely.

I know you do a heap of work in watching and studying all games and players throughout every year, and i think you are great in your analysis and opinions on the draftees with your summarisations of these kids strengths weaknesses and all round abilities in the roles they can play…

Walter is going to be a ripper but he’s an Academy player so i tend to leave the club tied out of it, many of the others that you have mentioned are good players that have some good strengths but IMO have a few flaws also in their games, i like Caddy most of those players but considering we need quality medium forwards and a few quality quick skilled midfielders at the top of the list amongst a few other positional types I’m not sure of the depth in this department atm that we can get what we desperately need list wise…

Look I’m just seeing it a little different from yourself and others by the overall limited quality, that’s not to say that I’m right or my judgment is right, hopefully things end up better than what I’m seeing it as atm, still a fair way to go this year and as we know things change every season as the year progresses…

Enjoy all your posts on the draft, there is yourself and a number of others on this Carlton forum that i do enjoy reading your overall opinions on these draftees

 

[bmaurizio]

If we’re so lucky be able to have a couple of selects in the top picks 13/15 an early 20s selection too, well be doing really well. We need to overhaul our playing List be brave and create some space to bring in skill, speed, footy IQ & toughness too.
Austin has to be astute and get right, otherwise we’ll be left further behind.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I know you do a heap of work in watching and studying all games and players throughout every year, and i think you are great in your analysis and opinions on the draftees with your summarisations of these kids strengths weaknesses and all round abilities in the roles they can play…

Walter is going to be a ripper but he’s an Academy player so i tend to leave the club tied out of it, many of the others that you have mentioned are good players that have some good strengths but IMO have a few flaws also in their games, i like Caddy most of those players but considering we need quality medium forwards and a few quality quick skilled midfielders at the top of the list amongst a few other positional types I’m not sure of the depth in this department atm that we can get what we desperately need list wise…

Look I’m just seeing it a little different from yourself and others by the overall limited quality, that’s not to say that I’m right or my judgment is right, hopefully things end up better than what I’m seeing it as atm, still a fair way to go this year and as we know things change every season as the year progresses…

Enjoy all your posts on the draft, there is yourself and a number of others on this Carlton forum that i do enjoy reading your overall opinions on these draftees

Yeah this year is probably very much a boom or bust type of draft. Plenty of players who could be absolute superstars or complete busts which differs from most years where as I said, they have loads of A grade midfield talent who even if they don't end up guns will be serviceable AFL players.

Either way if Austin can get us a player from each of these two groups and I'll be happy.

Mckercher
Duursma
Wilson
Lorenz

Watson
Caddy
Delean
Tholstrup

All bring what we need in spades.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

I know there's a long way still to go, but I'm thinking our first pick might be somewhere between 5 and 8.
Caddy and Reid will most likely be gone before then. Who else joins them in the top 6 at this stage?

 

[Christou2Kouta]

From watching a few clips so far, Caddy, Watson and Curtin impress me most.

I think Curtin looks like pure class and a genuine footballer with a good chance of playing a role from year one.

If we did go crazy and blew things up trading out assets to get three early picks, they would be my preference.


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[WalshistheGOAT]

Keen to see the replay of this game if it goes up online sounds like a shootout

 

[GT619]

Carlton can still effectively match the offer for example from Geelong.
Clubs are aware that if they courting players they have to reach a fair outcome for both parties.
A 2nd round pick does nothing for us, l hope he stays but unless a 1st round pick is on the table l don't see him going anywhere.

He's not a free agent

 

[Coona Blues]

From watching a few clips so far, Caddy, Watson and Curtin impress me most.

I think Curtin looks like pure class and a genuine footballer with a good chance of playing a role from year one.

If we did go crazy and blew things up trading out assets to get three early picks, they would be my preference.


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100%

If I was given three picks at the top end of the draft, I would take the same three. (Throwing in a rider of excluding Reid and Walter)

A few are hooked on the need for midfield pace, but our structures largely fix that. Then we have Hollands and a couple of others developing to add to the mix.

A quality KPD with the bonus of being a great interceptor and quality distributor, who has credentials forward and, at a push, in the midfield.

X factor little mongrel forward and a Charlie Curnow like third tall forward.

 

[GT619]

Harley Reid misses 6 weeks of footy after being concussed?
Crikey, that sounds extreme.
It's either been a very bad one, or he's hiding from West Coast recruiters.

He's tanking himself

 

[Christou2Kouta]

100%

If I was given three picks at the top end of the draft, I would take the same three. (Throwing in a rider of excluding Reid and Walter)

A few are hooked on the need for midfield pace, but our structures largely fix that. Then we have Hollands and a couple of others developing to add to the mix.

A quality KPD with the bonus of being a great interceptor and quality distributor, who has credentials forward and, at a push, in the midfield.

X factor little mongrel forward and a Charlie Curnow like third tall forward.

100% agree.
An upgrade on Silvagni, Owies and Young/Marchbank/Kemp/Gov (or a future replacement for Cripps).


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[Juice030103]

I don’t know what people mean when they this. TDK is out of contract, we don’t hold much leverage.

We will either take a first or let him walk to the pre season draft

 

[The Defender]

We will either take a first or let him walk to the pre season draft

And zero chance he risks West Coast.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

We will either take a first or let him walk to the pre season draft

There's a difference between a player leaving a club and a player wanting to be traded to another club.

Saad left * and nominated us as his club of choice, which meant that the onus was then on Carlton to broker a trade to get him across. Dodoro knew that, and once they were gifted pick #7 by the AFL as compensation for Daniher - the pick before ours - he had us gazumped, so we were forced to pay the premium.

TDK is a different situation, similar to the Cerra trade. If he wants to go to another club, it would most likely only be if a deal could be brokered that wouldn't **** us over. Cerra reportedly walked away from the Demons because they didn't have to the draft capital to broker an honest deal with Freo. I would bet my leftie that TDK would be a similar situation - and even Sam McClure stated in an article he's confident that TDK’s management will not allow him to request a trade if a deal can’t be reached beforehand.

There would be zero chance that he would want to walk to the pre season draft - or that his manager Robbie D’Orazio would allow it to happen

 

[bluesDeluxe]

Harley Reid and Nick Watson would be the only two players imo from games and footage I’ve watched so far this season that would make last years top 10…
In what was predicted as a boom draft leading into the year it’s turned out to be by my eye so far as one of the more overrated drafts so far with all of the preseason hype…

Cadman
Ashcroft (f/s)
Sheezel
Wardlaw
Humphrey
McKenzie
Clarke
Gibney
Phillipou
Fletcher (f/s)
George
Jefferson


Are all players i highly rated last year and would be comfortably in front of the next batch ive watched over so far from this current drat year, doesn’t have the overall class or xfactor as last year, a few question marks on many of this years “top end talents” ….

Keep DeKoning
Keep 2023 draft first pick maybe split depending on finishing position
Keep our future first
Trade in 2025 picks for Campo twins
Trade in our future 2024 2nd/3rd rounders
Cincotta main list
Ramshaw & Dozzi must be listed, best young talent we’ve produced since recruit from within
Trade out Fisher & Silvagni
McGovern $Contract/ trade value
Get in a couple of young positional requirement players from other club lists for early 2nd/ 3rd rounders
Keep Dow

Cunners certainly keep if he doesn’t break down again this season
Martin contracted another year needs to not break down once again…

1. Silvagni - up for trade
2. O’Brien - delist
3. Fogarty - delist
5. McGovern - trade?
6. Carroll - up for trade
7. Plowman - delist
8. Marchbank - delist
9. Fisher - up for trade
10. Philp - delist
11. Ed Curnow - retired/reserves captain
12. Mirkov - delist







No

Yeah agree with a lot of this, especially recruiting from within.

 

[Santo the king]

Trade TDK and our first to WC.
For pick 1 and perhaps an early 4th.

Take Reid and play him half forward until he is ready to transition into the midfield.