Teams 2023 Fantasy - Rate My Preseason Team

[WaynesWorld19]

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[11kgm]

View attachment 1596542

Feels like a decent first team. Thoughts below:

• Worpel (over Sheed). Thinking they will average the same, so I save 130K.
• Milera (over Mclean). Was leaning towards Mclean, but read that he's in the B team in the training reports (confirm if not correct). Milera doing very well from all training reports and playing in his preferred position. Still have a bit of bank, so can Milera > Sheed if need be.
• Taranto is a defensive selection (majority of the teams have him). Not confident with the Tiger's playstyle.

You are correct on McLean and to make it even more scarier that was with no Baz and Daniel

You have more confidence in Worpel then i do, he's been in their B team all pre-season, but I hope he can get back to 90

 

[Danger_zone]

You are correct on McLean and to make it even more scarier that was with no Baz and Daniel

You have more confidence in Worpel then i do, he's been in their B team all pre-season, but I hope he can get back to 90

Missed that, Worpel > Sheed!

 

[Phar Ace]

Exactly.

This is an example using all players over 200K (basement price), of players who might be a better choice if they get selected, because of their JS - even though they are a lot more expensive (rucks not included 'cause there really aren't any viable choices, haha):

View attachment 1594618

That is a bit of cracker list tbh. Well done. No Van Rooyen or Matthew Johnson either (I know they are $200k ers and you were probs trying to leave them out)

 

[wahooo]

Tinkered with the idea of sending one of those FWD/MIDS into the midfield and don't mind it.

Have cooled a little on Crae and am thinking I'll back the Bont in.

One that I keep going back and forward on is English/Cameron. I like English as the clear number one ruck choice. On the other hand, Cameron is value. I'm just not sure if there's enough value to justify picking him.

 

[Phar Ace]

I was thinking the other day about what it means to be 'value'. Obviously 'value' is a player priced below what they will output. But there are other factors. For example if the pure underpriced-ness was all that mattered we'd field a team of 22 rookies and mid pricers who are all 20-40 points under priced. But that obviously won't work, so there is an element of total score. Then we only have a certain number of trades right, so surely value needs to consider if that player needs to be traded for their final team or not, so there is some value in being a 'keeper'. Then ultimately the game is about outscoring your opponent right? It's too complicated to think about outscoring positions at the start of the season because there are too many variables but we all understand by the end we want the sort of top 6-10 in a position and we can measure the value in a player by the points they score above another player in that bracket. So we can clearly see there a various factors someone can be 'value' to our AFL fantasy side.

I'll summarize them as:

1. Price Discount to Projection
2. Projected Scoring
3. Job Security (will you need to trade them for injury/dropped)
4. Premium? (are they a premium best 22 or will you need to trade them eventually)
5. Value Over Replacement

This is where I see someone like Dunkley or Doch having 'value' because while they may not be discounted or have upside, they are certain premiums and have strong value over replacement in the top 6 (for example Doch might be 10 points better than Stewart).

Is there anything else that factors into a players value? As a thought exercise i'm thinking of maybe ranking players 1-20 in each category and creating a sort of FIFA-style overall rating for each player as a way to assess value outside of purely what discount they have to my projected score for them? Thoughts

Excellent stuff.

• Dual Position can have great value too
• Potential score ceilings have value. Stewart only scored 5 tons, but 2 were 150 plus. Mitchell similarly can hit a vein of big scores
• Resilience - Full seasons. Crips is knocked at times, but has not missed a game in over 100 of them.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Have had this thought a bit lately when it comes to the FPL game, with a lot of content creators encouraging people to keep cheap players because they're 'value' i.e. are producing more points than their price would indicate. But if those points are still lower than you could get from a better player, and the alternative is the money sitting in your bank, it's a bit misleading.

I think there's consistency of output is underrated sometimes when it comes to value considerations, as you say, it's important for captaincy conversations, so a Dunkley is still 'value' in that sense.

Great point on captaincy option.

 

[Andrewy]

I'm sort of ok with this. Maybe needs some MPM ?

 

[Shadow89]

Shadow89

Miller I like as he averaged 122 in 2021 and I don't see why he can't get somewhere back to that average.

Mills is at risk of being thrown into some weird role which isn't handy for scoring purposes. Plus, Sydney's midfield is young and growing and I reckon Longmire tries to mix it up this year.

Brayshaw played so much midfield this year and has guys like O'Meara coming in and Serong coming along.

Oliver may jump but he's been playing like this for a while.

I also like Miller purely because he has a good bye.

As for Docherty, only once has he averaged more than his 2022 score and that was in 2017. He's also 29 and I reckon others have more growing in them.

I reckon the whole "Bevo" thing is overrated. The bulldogs had a stacked midfield in 2022 but were missing pieces elsewhere, so midfielders filled the spots elsewhere at times. Theres also only one ball to go around. Some players had to be shifted to wings, flanks etc. as you can't play 12 onballers at the same time. But removing Dunkley creates a hole for Smith, Macrae and Bontempelli, and Bontempelli surely gets more time on ball and he's their most damaging midfielder and can score highly. I'm less sold on him than Petracca but due to spending more rookies to ensure JS I have less money for the premiums. LDU I have really thought about alongside Keays.

All fair points, but I would also argue these counter points:

- Touk/Bray - Noah Anderson stepped up in a massive way last year - and should continue that way this year. If that continues, that then dilutes Touk's points much like it did last season. Bray had Serong there last season, and JOM replaces Mundy, so the balance is much the same as Touk, IMO.

- Mills - I agree on...he's a tough one. If he plays full mid, he's a guaranteed Top 8, and can score ridiculously well (courtesy of CD and their penchant for giving him tackles every time he even glances at another player). On the other hand, he's the perfect stop gap in defence when things go awry, so he's no guarantee to always be in the mids either.

- Doch - , that's one we'll have to agree to disagree on, as a defender averaging 117 and 110 in different years, is just ridiculous and makes them that much more valuable given the position they play has much less competition. The fact that he averaged 110 in a year coming back from cancer, and averaged 120 playing in the mids - where he'll have ample opportunity given all their outs -, means he just cannot be ignored, IMO. He's also an all important viable VC option for the first 5 rounds - which doesn't hurt either.

- Bevo and Bulldogs players - The Bevo thing is something that has gotten worse and worse over the years here, haha. The problem is, it's not just a stacked midfield that causes Bevo to make the moves he does. Even with injuries, he'll flick the magnets and make players play in strange positions - all to demonstrate 'player flexibility', which he absolutely loves. I remember the time it really started, was when Dunks finished the year in the mids, and everyone picked him up forward to start the year. Nek minnit, Bevo puts him forward for the first 6 rounds, and everyone lost their sh*t because it had been near on confirmed that's where he'd play.

Caleb Daniel going into the mids, Treloar sent to half back...these players have never played these positions for more than a game or two in their lives, yet that's where he puts them. The point being, is you just cannot trust on any given day what the setup is going to be. Bont may play deep forward, Treloar may play half back, Smith might be full time inside mid along with Daniel, and Macrae might be out on a wing. The next week, Bont, Treloar and Macrae are inside mid, Daniel is back at half back and Smith is at wing/half forward. It's a complete guess week to week what he'll do, and it doesn't appear to have changed according to many on the Dogs' board this pre-season.

You may think it's logical that Dunkley leaving means Bevo just plays his best on ballers in their best positions...but he won't. It's why SIX Dogs players were listed as forwards last year - because they all got Bevo'd. Treloar, Bont, Dunks, English, Libba and Bailey Smith all had forward status by mid year. It was nuts. Trust me, it's not overplayed, as he's been doing it for years - and it gets worse and worse every single year. It's a complete nightmare, and it makes it so hard to figure out which Dogs players to pick and which ones to avoid.

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Great discussion though, and lots of food for thought - so thanks so much for providing your insights

 

[Shadow89]

That is a bit of cracker list tbh. Well done. No Van Rooyen or Matthew Johnson either (I know they are $200k ers and you were probs trying to leave them out)

Cheers mate Yeah just demonstrating how players above 200K can be the better picks in the long run, due to their JS and probable output - hence JVR, Wilmot and Johnson not making the cut.

 

[Phar Ace]

All fair points, but I would also argue these counter points:

- Touk/Bray - Noah Anderson stepped up in a massive way last year - and should continue that way this year. If that continues, that then dilutes Touk's points much like it did last season. Bray had Serong there last season, and JOM replaces Mundy, so the balance is much the same as Touk, IMO.

- Mills - I agree on...he's a tough one. If he plays full mid, he's a guaranteed Top 8, and can score ridiculously well (courtesy of CD and their penchant for giving him tackles every time he even glances at another player). On the other hand, he's the perfect stop gap in defence when things go awry, so he's no guarantee to always be in the mids either.

- Doch - , that's one we'll have to agree to disagree on, as a defender averaging 117 and 110 in different years, is just ridiculous and makes them that much more valuable given the position they play has much less competition. The fact that he averaged 110 in a year coming back from cancer, and averaged 120 playing in the mids - where he'll have ample opportunity given all their outs -, means he just cannot be ignored, IMO. He's also an all important viable VC option for the first 5 rounds - which doesn't hurt either.

- Bevo and Bulldogs players - The Bevo thing is something that has gotten worse and worse over the years here, haha. The problem is, it's not just a stacked midfield that causes Bevo to make the moves he does. Even with injuries, he'll flick the magnets and make players play in strange positions - all to demonstrate 'player flexibility', which he absolutely loves. I remember the time it really started, was when Dunks finished the year in the mids, and everyone picked him up forward to start the year. Nek minnit, Bevo puts him forward for the first 6 rounds, and everyone lost their sh*t because it had been near on confirmed that's where he'd play.

Caleb Daniel going into the mids, Treloar sent to half back...these players have never played these positions for more than a game or two in their lives, yet that's where he puts them. The point being, is you just cannot trust on any given day what the setup is going to be. Bont may play deep forward, Treloar may play half back, Smith might be full time inside mid along with Daniel, and Macrae might be out on a wing. The next week, Bont, Treloar and Macrae are inside mid, Daniel is back at half back and Smith is at wing/half forward. It's a complete guess week to week what he'll do, and it doesn't appear to have changed according to many on the Dogs' board this pre-season.

You may think it's logical that Dunkley leaving means Bevo just plays his best on ballers in their best positions...but he won't. It's why SIX Dogs players were listed as forwards last year - because they all got Bevo'd. Treloar, Bont, Dunks, English, Libba and Bailey Smith all had forward status by mid year. It was nuts. Trust me, it's not overplayed, as he's been doing it for years - and it gets worse and worse every single year. It's a complete nightmare, and it makes it so hard to figure out which Dogs players to pick and which ones to avoid.

********************************************

Great discussion though, and lots of food for thought - so thanks so much for providing your insights

The Bevo thing is a thing. Bevo will do things to the players to make a point, even a bad point. He will even tell players they will not play or play in positions as a friggen penalty to prove his point. Being Bevo'd is a thing!

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'm sort of ok with this. Maybe needs some MPM ?

View attachment 1596604

You've got Draper in there - so definitely enough mid price madness in that selection alone.

 

[Richo83]

Shadow89

I'm torn with Anderson. He's young so he may grow but he also won a lot of contested ball, how much more does he get? Touk was weirdly inconsistent last year and in games seemed to just not play on ball that much. I think that changes. I'm not completely sold on him and part of me thinks I'll change him to Steele or downgrade and put C on Smith... who will be Bevoed.

I really like Mills and I think he will be an upgrade target soon. I'm not sure you need him round one. Wait for Longmire to Bevo him I guess.

I agree that Bevo tries to throw around the magnets, but doesn't every coach? Look at how Longmire treats Mills. Rioli is now a defender. One of the reasons why this happens is because the bulldogs are really good at drafting versatile midfielders meaning it's hard not to try and move them around. As for Daniel and Treloar, Daniel I suspect is being moved out as the team realises he's too small to play in the defence. He's a defender who doesn't... defend. Treloar is fast and is a decent kick which makes for a great flanker. Again, you've got Smith, Bontempelli, Macrae and Dunkley mixing it up last year. Someone has to play the flanks. But now Dunkley is gone and Treloar is injured. I don't know how Bontempelli, Macrae and Smith play anywhere else than the guts.

 

[Corkintheocean]

You've got Draper in there - so definitely enough mid price madness in that selection alone.

Beat me to it. Although arguably it falls into the category of Mid Price Insanity.

 

[Shadow89]

Current iteration (managed to go set and forget rucks given all the issues, but only have to drop Touk back to Titch who I had originally and who apparently is dominating match sim/training - Coffield will drop to Weddle if he plays or I need money for rooks/or Titch will be dropped to Butters or Green depending on PS):

 

[Shadow89]

By the way guys, nowhere near as many 'PODS' this year, as previous years. Seems people are much more evenly spread when it comes to players this year - which is always a good thing. Here's my team of PODS - players owned by 5% of the comp or below -, as an example (incidentally only has one rook as well):

 

[FlowersByIrene]

By the way guys, nowhere near as many 'PODS' this year, as previous years. Seems people are much more evenly spread when it comes to players this year - which is always a good thing. Here's my team of PODS - players owned by 5% of the comp or below -, as an example (incidentally only has one rook as well):

View attachment 1596926

I think we could see some increase in ownership in Milera and Bowes, and potentially Worpel, as the pre-season develops.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

My weekly version update and if anyone can help my find 1k to get Davey to Pedlar please let me know!

Have exactly $0 left and if I had Pedlar in the FP, I think I’d be settled finally.

B: Doch, Daicos, Salem, Yeo, Bowes, Weddle (rook/rook)

C: Steele, Macrae, LDU, Green, Worpel, Ashcroft, Ginbey, Phillips (rookie/rookie)

R: English, Marshall (rookie)

F: Dunkley, Cogs, Rozee, McLean, Phillipou, Davey (rookie/rookie)

Only option I can see is downgrade one of Cogs - Taranto or Rozee - Butters. Both of which, I really don’t want to do!

 

[Exambolor]

My little update team. Not many changes from my first draft but I wanted to try a couple of different options to differentiate from my SC team. $104k left in the bank, and could use that to go to another Uber or spread that amongst named rookies for cash gen.

DEF: No change here. My top four I feel pretty confident about. D5 could be the open spot to change if there’s a couple of other debutants. Bench rookies will also change depending on who’s named.

Young, Daicos, Ellis, Ginbey, Weddle, Wilmot (Chesser, Montgomerie)

MID: This is where the most changes have occurred (although only two). I brought in Matt Kennedy and Durrsma. Kennedy is an intriguing prospect, he’s shown that he can go big, and with no Walsh, he’ll have a lot more capabilities to take some more points. Durssma could be the quality mid price pick, especially in an Amon-less Port, and he gets more ball.

Oliver, Kennedy, LDU, Green, Rowbottom, Duursma, Ashcroft, Phillips (Johnson, Laurie)

RUC: No change

English, Hickey (Heath)

FWD: No change

Dunkley, Taranto, Moore, Gulden, McLean, Phillipiou (Drury, JVR)

 

[FlowersByIrene]

My little update team. Not many changes from my first draft but I wanted to try a couple of different options to differentiate from my SC team. $104k left in the bank, and could use that to go to another Uber or spread that amongst named rookies for cash gen.

DEF: No change here. My top four I feel pretty confident about. D5 could be the open spot to change if there’s a couple of other debutants. Bench rookies will also change depending on who’s named.

Young, Daicos, Ellis, Ginbey, Weddle, Wilmot (Chesser, Montgomerie)

MID: This is where the most changes have occurred (although only two). I brought in Matt Kennedy and Durrsma. Kennedy is an intriguing prospect, he’s shown that he can go big, and with no Walsh, he’ll have a lot more capabilities to take some more points. Durssma could be the quality mid price pick, especially in an Amon-less Port, and he gets more ball.

Oliver, Kennedy, LDU, Green, Rowbottom, Duursma, Ashcroft, Phillips (Johnson, Laurie)

RUC: No change

English, Hickey (Heath)

FWD: No change

Dunkley, Taranto, Moore, Gulden, McLean, Phillipiou (Drury, JVR)

I don't believe Kennedy is currently in full training, or may have just returned to full training. Just an an FYI.

 

[Exambolor]

I don't believe Kennedy is currently in full training, or may have just returned to full training. Just an an FYI.

Oh man didn’t know that. Will definitely keep an eye on info. Still a way to go thankfully.

 

[11kgm]

I can get Young to Brayshaw if it's too risky can also turn Mackenzie to Culley

But this is set and forget in rucks rather than ******* around and finding out

 

[Richo83]

This is my latest iteration:

Defence: Brayshaw, Young, Salem, McKenna, Ginbey, Weddle (Chesser, Wilmont)

Midfield: Miller, Dunkley, Petracca, Bontempelli, Mitchell, Ashcroft, Mackenzie, Wagner (Philips, Johnson)

Rucks: English, Marshall (Heath)

Forwards: Coniglio, Taranto, Rozee, Shezeel, Philipou, Drury (Pedlar, Can Rooyen)

Sinn

I know eight rookies are starting but I reckon you need cash generation early and I have only spent 116k more than the minimum on bench rookies and the sub. I also think teams are getting good at drafting early and I expect quite a few to make a bang like last year with Daicos, Martin and Rachele early. I'm worried about the sub, but I feel like players like McLean who I like may also be subbed.

I could go with midprice madness but in my experience it doesn't work and I feel like, like rookies, they eventually need upgrading anyway.

 

[jackag24]

I've finally created the first revision of my team.

Overall I'm pretty happy with it.

Good mix of premos i can rely on (Docherty, Oliver, Smith, McRae, Dunkley, Cogs, Mitchell) and mid pricers / rookies

Set and forget rucks

 

[Milo Cyrus]

I've finally created the first revision of my team.

Overall I'm pretty happy with it.

Good mix of premos i can rely on (Docherty, Oliver, Smith, McRae, Dunkley, Cogs, Mitchell) and mid pricers / rookies

Set and forget rucks


View attachment 1597847

Duursma is an interesting pick, he seemed out of sorts last year. What do you think he can average?

 

[jackag24]

Duursma is an interesting pick, he seemed out of sorts last year. What do you think he can average?

It is subject to change, want to see how he goes in the pre-season matches

But I think he will bump himself up to atleast 80 and make for a good stepping stone to a premo.

He should take Amon's spot on the wing and he's apparently "training the house down"

Carr has said he's been impressive so far The Power player most impressing new midfield coach

Edit:
To add more context, in his first year he averaged 78.2 from 20 games, but has had a terrible run with injuries/form in the last 3 years, playing only 33 games.

If he can stay on the park and build some form & confidence.. he will score well