BigFooty Forum

Fixture analysis 11/12/2022

Section 5, I'm stealing your list of fixtures because it's so good and belongs on this first post. Hope you don't mind and thanks!


Timing of matches
4 x Friday night (Melbourne, Carlton, Sydney , St Kilda)
2 x Thursday night (Bulldogs, Collingwood)
(= 6 in prime time)
3 x Saturday arvo (North Melbourne, Freo, Hawthorn)
2 x Saturday twilight (Port Adelaide, GWS)
2 x Saturday night (Essendon, Gold Coast)
1 x graveyard shift (Adelaide)

Number of day breaks
4 x 6 day breaks - I guess this comes with the territory of playing more prime time games when they are not back to back. Carlton for example have 4 x 6 day breaks AND a 5 day break.
5 x 7 day breaks
2 x 8 day breaks
1 x 9 day break
1 x 13 day break (after the bye)

No 5 day break which on face value is a good thing, but it does leave open the possibility of having one in the back half of the season. Leading into the Collingwood game at Docklands seems a real possibility. Collingwood play Geelong the week prior which you sense would be a Friday night game, so it's possible we could play Adelaide on the Saturday night and bounce straight into Collingwood on the Thursday night. Would be a testing time straight after coming back from Perth, particularly if that game was the last game on a Sunday as it's been the last few seasons.

Who do we play twice?
3 top 6 teams, but only 2 in the top 6 for % (Collingwood being the anomaly here)
2 middle 6 teams, but 3 in the middle 6 for %
1 bottom 6 team
Average % = 106.8

Melbourne (Rounds 2 and 18) - 130.5%
Gold Coast (Rounds 10 and 20) - 102.8%
Fremantle (Rounds 7 and 21) - 117.0%
Adelaide (Rounds 11 and 22) - 86.7%
Collingwood (Rounds 4 and 23) - 104.3%
St Kilda (Rounds 15 and 24) - 99.3%

In 2022 our earliest double up was in Round 17 (the Essendon COVID game), but Rounds 20 and 21 were against teams we were only playing for the first time (Richmond and Carlton). In 2023 our earliest double up is in Round 18 (Melbourne), and our last new opponent is the very next week in Round 19 (Geelong). Anecdotally from others on the main fixture board, there appears to have been a shift towards trying to have all the double ups as late in the season as possible, which is how it used to be back in the days where the fixture would simply swap over and repeat after everyone had played everyone once.

Who do we play at home only
Essendon (Round 9) - 83.2%
Sydney (Round 14) - 127.9%
Richmond (Round 16) - 121.6%
West Coast (Round 17) - 59.8%
Geelong (Round 19) - 144.2%
Average % = 107.3

Who do we play away only
Port Adelaide (Round 1) - 110.3%
Western Bulldogs (Round 3) - 108.9%
GWS (Round 6) - 84.6%
Carlton (Round 8) - 108.3%
Hawthorn (Round 13) - 89.8%
Average % = 100.4%

So based on last year's results, our away draw is slightly easier in terms of our opponents, as opposed to our home draw. This can be looked at in 2 ways. Yes, this may mean we are less likely to have any of those big %-boosting wins at home against lower ranked teams. But in general the Lions under Fagan have rarely ever done that anyway, so the fact we are playing tougher teams at home rather than away I see as a plus. However, it does mean that even if we are approaching finals in good nick, there's a good chance there will till be a lot of talk out of Victoria about how we haven't really beaten anyone "when/where it matters".

Travel schedule

• 2 home games in our first 6 and 3 in our first 8 will give a good idea where we're at. Would rather have a run like this at the start of the season than at the end of it. The consecutive away games are in Rounds 5 (Adelaide Hills) and 6 (Canberra).
• Consecutive home games v Essendon and Gold Coast in Rounds 9 and 10.
• Consecutive away games v Adelaide and Hawthorn in Rounds 11 and 13 but with the bye in between this is a great outcome.
• Then we only leave Queensland 3 times in the final 9 rounds. This is unprecedented and is getting into dangerous Broncos and even Collingwood territory with regards to favourable treatment from the league. I seriously had to review the fixture 4 or 5 times to make sure I was reading it properly.
• Round 24 at home, which could be crucial if we need a (big) win to secure a specific rung on the ladder.

Away games in Melbourne - club-by-club comparison (2 pts for MCG games, 1 pt for Docklands games)
11: Collingwood (5 @ MCG, 1 @ Docklands)
10: Carlton (4 @ MCG, 2 @ Docklands)
10: Geelong (4 @ MCG, 2 @ Docklands)
9: Hawthorn (3 @ MCG, 3 @ Docklands)
9: Port Adelaide (3 @ MCG, 3 @ Docklands)
9: Essendon (4 @ MCG, 1 @ Docklands)
8: Brisbane (2 @ MCG, 4 @ Docklands)
8: Fremantle (3 @ MCG, 2 @ Docklands)
8: Richmond (3 @ MCG, 2 @ Docklands)
8: Sydney (3 @ MCG, 2 @ Docklands)
7: North Melbourne (2 @ MCG, 3 @ Docklands)
7: Western Bulldogs (2 @ MCG, 3 @ Docklands)
7: Melbourne (3 @ MCG, 1 @ Docklands)
6: St Kilda (1 @ MCG, 4 @ Docklands)
6: West Coast (1 @ MCG, 4 @ Docklands)
5: Gold Coast (1 @ MCG, 3 @ Docklands)
5: Adelaide (2 @ MCG, 1 @ Docklands)
4: GWS (1 @ MCG, 2 @ Docklands)

This "points system" is my attempt at balancing what I consider the two most important aspects of our fixture: How many games our Vic members get to see us and how many games we get where the Grand Final is to be held. While the AFL has this contract in place with the MCC I believe it is incumbent on them to give all clubs at least equal "away" access to the G. As we can see above, this is nowhere near the case, and in fact it's quite the reverse, as the teams who play all/most of their home games there also getting the lion's share of the away games. Our Collingwood game really should be at the MCG rather than at Docklands, and if both teams are flying by Round 23 that will become quite obvious.

The fact that we're all pretty pleased about this aspect of our 2023 fixture says more about how bad our Victorian members have previously been treated, moreso than the fact that it's actually a decent and fair fixture.

Gaps between playing teams - longest to shortest
(36 weeks of football) West Coast 2022 Round 8 to Round 17
(34) Sydney 2022 Round 7 to Round 14
(30) Hawthorn 2022 Round 10 to Round 13
(29) North Melbourne 2022 Round 3 to Round 5
(29) Adelaide 2022 Round 9 to Round 11
(27) Happy anniversary: We last played Port in 2022 Round 1
(26) Collingwood 2022 Round 5 to Round 4
(22) Fremantle 2022 Round 12 to Round 7
(20) St Kilda 2022 Round 22 to Round 15
(20) Geelong 2022 Prelim Final to Round 19
(19) Essendon 2022 Round 17 to Round 9
(19) Richmond 2022 Elimination Final to Round 16
(19) Collingwood Round 4 to Round 23
(18) Gold Coast 2022 Round 19 to Round 10
(16) Melbourne Round 2 to Round 18 - see below, will be 5 out of 30 games by this time, which is still well above average
(15) GWS 2022 Round 18 to Round 6
(14) Bulldogs 2022 Round 16 to Round 3
(14) Carlton 2022 Round 21 to Round 8
(14) Fremantle Round 7 to Round 21
(11) Adelaide Round 11 to Round 22
(10) Gold Coast Round 10 to Round 20
(9) St Kilda Round 15 to Round 24
(4 ) Melbourne 2022 Semi Final to Round 2. In fact, by the end of Round 2, Melbourne will have played us in 2 of their last 3 games and 3 out of their last 5. For us it will be 2 of our last 4 and 3 out of our last 6. If you factor in last year's Round 15 top-of-the-ladder clash, it will be 4 times in our last 14 games. Getting into serious Collingwood 2003-4 territory here.

Final thoughts
In 2022 it felt like teams figured us out (Hawthorn in Round 10 were really the first) and we either didn't want to or didn't have time to adjust. That won't happen in 2023; if we are going to be found out we're likely to get found out early, via any/all of our first 4 games really. I actually see this as a good thing because it should give us time to adjust things. Footy has, to a large extent, moved past the stage where you go into a season with a set strategy, or at least the good teams have done that. Clubs now have such great access to vision and data that your game plan has to be a fluid, constantly evolving beast. So if by Round 24 we look like we're playing the exact same way as we play in Round 1, we'll look exactly how we looked at stages in 2022: stale and out of ideas.

Below I've made a couple of updates (like this or this) with regards to my original comments. Fair to say my strike rate was mostly abysmal which I'm actually pretty pleased about! Although picking 4 of our 6 double ups wasn't too bad.

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Original analysis

While there's a bit of time between the trading period and the draft, what do we want or expect to see from our 2023 fixture?

I've done a bit of an analysis of recent seasons, to spot any "gaps" with regards to teams we may not have played twice, or played at home/away recently. Of note:

Who haven't we played twice for a while?
Sydney 2011!
Adelaide 2015
Carlton 2016
West Coast 2016
Hawthorn 2019
North Melbourne 2019
Port Adelaide 2019
Western Bulldogs 2021 (including finals). 2019 regular season

Who haven't we played at home for a while?
Hawthorn 2019

Who haven't we played away for a while
Hawthorn 2012 (MCG with a crowd)
Melbourne 2014 (Docklands)
Collingwood 2017 (MCG)
Richmond 2017 (Docklands)
West Coast 2017 (have never met at Perth Stadium)
Western Bulldogs 2018 (Docklands)
Essendon 2019 (MCG)
North Melbourne 2019 (Docklands)
Port Adelaide 2019

My expectations
Junkets to: Ballarat, Hobart, Geelong, Perth x 2
Double ups: Sydney, Freo (or Geelong), Collingwood, Gold Coast, Adelaide (or West Coast if Geelong), possibly Carlton if magic round happens?

If this were to occur, and it's entirely possible that it might, it means away games in Ballarat, Hobart, Geelong, Perth x 2, Sydney, Carrara and Adelaide x 3.

So this is a bit of a worst case scenario but it is quite possible we could get as few as 3 games in Melbourne, for a combination of reasons:

• Geelong, Sydney and Fremantle all being in the top 6 last year. Two thirds of our group of 6 reside outside Melbourne, a greater % than the 50% across the competition.
• Of this year's top 6, we only played Melbourne twice in 2022 so I think it is least likely we would play them twice again.
• The fact that we are not Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton or Richmond and therefore are drawn to play Victorian based teams a disproportionate amount of times in Bumfuque, Idaho.
• We always play Gold Coast twice
• We are well and truly overdue to play Sydney and Adelaide twice, as well as West Coast in Perth.

Our fixture requests
We get 3 fixturing requests each year. This is why I think one of our 3 requests surely has to be to play 8 games in Melbourne. Yes, I know, 8 is obscene and we won't get them, but there's some method to the madness. Obviously there was COVID, then in 2021 we only got a couple of games in Melbourne before Victoria went into lockdown again. Then in 2022 we only had 4 games. FOUR. By comparison, clubs like GWS and Freo, who have no Victorian connection whatsoever, had 7. So to ask for 8 and give back to our Victorian supporter base is the least we can do.

(Disclaimer: I live in Brisbane and have no vested interest as to where our away games are)

We won't get 8, but by asking for 8 and with that strong rationale, we'll at least get 6 and possibly 7. This brings with it added benefits, like probably a third game at the MCG (practice makes perfect right?), while on the other hand, it makes us less likely to have those annoying games in Ballarat or Hobart or Canberra, and we may get out of making 2 trips to Perth.

So I really think this is a no brainer, and after we essentially wasted one of our requests for 2022 by asking NOT to play in Ballarat (yep, that was actually one of our 3 requests), I think this sells itself.

Other requests? We probably shouldn't have to ask for Collingwood on Easter Thursday, given we were both top 4 teams and will probably play twice anyway. But, if we don't ask, we probably don't get, so that one just stays there under the "commercial considerations" banner.

And as for a third, well I don't really mind. I mean personally I'd prefer more day games but I guess teams up the top want to be scheduled more at night time. Just as long as we don't request NOT to play somewhere Our girls have earned the right through their performances to throw the phrase "anyone, any time, anywhere" around like it's confetti. It's time for our men to do the same.

Anyway this is all speculation for now and hopefully gives us something to think about on the men's side of things in between the trade period and the draft.

Mods: I plan to edit this original post to contain our actual 2023 fixture once it's released. Hope this is ok!