Prediction 2023 Ladder Prediction Thread

[Fadge]

Changed tact? Had Carlton 18th didn't you

Pies won't finish top 4, bookmark that

Wowee.

 

[Fadge]

Difficult to nail down a ladder, so more in a range, but somewhat in order

Expect to finish in the 8
Cats, Demons, Tigers

Fighting for a top 8 spot
Lions, Blues, Swans, Pies, Dogs, Dockers, Port

Next Level
Crows, Bombers, Suns Saints, Eagles

Then
Giants, Roos, Hawks

If picking one side to possibly slide, it's the Lions. One side that could be the biggest riser, Crows

Wowee.

None of your top 3 picks finished top 4; two of them missed the Top 8.

Astute judge.

 

[Jeremias]

How does Arr0w's prediction take away from one's own being shithouse?

Strange deflection, but predictable from someone who exists on here simply to troll.

 

[Arr0w]

How about you share your Ladder Prediction?

I did teams in a range, but we aren't talking about me or any other poster, only you that's bragging, largely of failed predictions

Your pretty spreadsheet isn't analysis of predictions, it's outcome based

But, sure you could detail each teams predicted finishing position analysis

Let's start with Carlton, what was your analysis to predict an 11th place finish?

 

[Fadge]

How does Arr0w's prediction take away from one's own being shithouse?

Strange deflection, but predictable from someone who exists on here simply to troll.

Maybe you can find me a Ladder Prediction in this thread that was more accurate than mine, remembering there are 18 teams in the competition.

Just one will do the job.

Go.

 

[Jeremias]

Maybe you can find me a Ladder Prediction in this thread that was more accurate than mine, remembering there are 18 teams in the competition.

Just one will do the job.

Go.

Are you trying to come across as pathetic?

This is sad, even for you Fudgey.

 

[Fadge]

I did teams in a range, but we aren't talking about me....

Yep, and I shared it above.

And your predictions were nowhere near it.

But that's no surprise.

 

[Arr0w]

Yep, and I shared it above.

And your predictions were nowhere near it.

But that's no surprise.

I wasn't bragging, nor anyone else, just you

You missed 4 teams making the 8

Again show me you analysis in predicting Carlton finishing 11th

 

[Fadge]

Are you trying to come across as pathetic?

This is sad, even for you Fudgey.

85 pages, 25 posts per page.

Over 2000 posts, so probably a few hundred Ladder Predictions.

If my Ladder Prediction was 'shithouse', it shouldn't take you long to find a more accurate one.

Go.

 

[Arr0w]

Are you trying to come across as pathetic?

This is sad, even for you Fudgey.

Wait till he starts on probability, it's hilarious

 

[Jeremias]

Wait till he starts on probability, it's hilarious

Is he still going on about how close he was to being right by tipping Carlton to finish 11th?

 

[Fadge]

Wait till he starts on probability, it's hilarious

Oh yes, of course.

I should instead be referring to the mathematical function of possibility when an outcome is less likely than likely...

 

[Arr0w]

Oh yes, of course.

I should instead be referring to the mathematical function of possibility when an outcome is less likely than likely...

That's a start, but even the percentage is wrong

 

[Arr0w]

OK, now that the trade period is done and dusted, I can't see how the ladder can be any different to this:

1. Collingwood
2. Brisbane
3. Geelong
4. Port Adelaide
5. Sydney
6. Melbourne
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Fremantle
9. Richmond
10. Gold Coast
11. Carlton
12. St Kilda
13. Adelaide
14. Essendon
15. GWS
16. West Coast
17. North Melbourne
18. Hawthorn

Difficult to nail down a ladder, so more in a range, but somewhat in order

Expect to finish in the 8
Cats, Demons, Tigers

Fighting for a top 8 spot
Lions, Blues, Swans, Pies, Dogs, Dockers, Port

Next Level
Crows, Bombers, Suns Saints, Eagles

Then
Giants, Roos, Hawks

If picking one side to possibly slide, it's the Lions. One side that could be the biggest riser, Crows

OK. Let me do some analysis on the two posts you've referenced...

EDIT: Results are in:
View attachment 1804837


Pretty sure I get extra points for nailing three of the top four, including the Top 2 in order.

So keep looking, and find me a better prediction.

Actually Fadge, 6 of my top 10 made finals, you only 5 of your top 10

Difference being Carlton

 

[Jeremias]

Actually Fadge, 6 of my top 10 made finals, you only 5 of your top 10

Wowee

 

[Fadge]

Actually Fadge, 6 of my top 10 made finals, you only 5 of your top 10

Difference being Carlton

Oh.

I thought this was a 'Ladder Prediction' thread, not a 'Pick 10 teams you think will make the finals and see how many make it' thread.

Let me check....



Hmmm. I was right. Again.

 

[Arr0w]

Oh.

I thought this was a 'Ladder Prediction' thread, not a 'Pick 10 teams you think will make the finals and see how many make it' thread.

So my top 10 is more accurate than yours, hence my bottom 8 is too

But, keep bragging

Worked out the % error in your "probability"?

 

[Fadge]

So my top 10 is more accurate than yours, hence my bottom 8 is too

Yep. Only you could conclude that your Ladder Prediction was more accurate than mine, despite the fact you failed to even do a Ladder Prediction.

 

[Arr0w]

Yep. Only you could conclude that your Ladder Prediction was more accurate than mine, despite the fact you failed to even do a Ladder Prediction.

Yet, you are the one that highlighted it to compare it to yours

Think we are done here, unless you found the error in your probability

 

[Worm4]

Yep. Only you could conclude that your Ladder Prediction was more accurate than mine, despite the fact you failed to even do a Ladder Prediction.

Well your old mate Corn Cobbers had Carlton at 13th so it just proves how one's hatred for such a club can make predictions so clouded it's not even funny

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Oh.

I thought this was a 'Ladder Prediction' thread, not a 'Pick 10 teams you think will make the finals and see how many make it' thread.

Let me check....

View attachment 1808326

Hmmm. I was right. Again.

This is actually the dick measuring thread, or so the last few pages would suggest anyway

 

[Fadge]

Well your old mate Corn Cobbers had Carlton at 13th so it just proves how one's hatred for such a club can make predictions so clouded it's not even funny

Yes, at the mid point of the season it seemed we had both in fact over rated Carlton.

There was so little between the mob of teams that finished 5th and 13th, those of us that had Carlton outside the top 8 weren't too far off the mark.

Meanwhile, posters the likes of our friend Arr0w told us to bookmark his post that stated Collingwood wouldn't make the top 4. Collingwood then go on to finish a game and percentage clear on top, and had top 4 secured with 7 rounds remaining!

 

[austinnn]

Wow. Where do you begin?

Did ok with Blues, Port, Bulldogs and Bombers, plus Hawks and North (pretty safe) - the rest is shameful.

 

[Arr0w]

Yes, at the mid point of the season it seemed we had both in fact over rated Carlton.

There was so little between the mob of teams that finished 5th and 13th, those of us that had Carlton outside the top 8 weren't too far off the mark.

Meanwhile, posters the likes of our friend Arr0w told us to bookmark his post that stated Collingwood wouldn't make the top 4. Collingwood then go on to finish a game and percentage clear on top, and had top 4 secured with 7 rounds remaining!

Imagine my ladder predictor being more accurate than yours, glad you dug it up for me Fadge

Can't be bothered doing a spreadsheet though

 

[Fadge]

Imagine my ladder predictor being more accurate than yours, glad you dug it up for me Fadge

Can't be bothered doing a spreadsheet though

Imagine you posting clusters of teams in a Ladder Prediction thread, and gloating that your 'Ladder Predictor' is better than mine (which may very well be the most accurate in the entire thread - I'm still waiting for evidence to the contrary), despite the fact you didn't even do a Ladder Predictor.

But that's OK. Because I'm here to call you out on your deceitfulness.

I've taken the five minutes required to transform your 'clusters' into Ladder Predictors, and the results are in!

Because you only shared 'clusters' - I have deduced two scenarios - best case (Arrow BC) and worst case (Arrow WC), with the outcomes as follows:


As you can see, if you ranked the teams from your respective clusters in the absolute best case scenario, your resulting Ladder Predictor is AS ACCURATE as mine. That is the ABSOLUTE BEST CASE. But we do know the likelihood (or dare I say, probability) of that being the case though, don't we? Particularly when we take into consideration the fact you had previously declared Collingwood weren't going to be making top 4, and also nominated Brisbane as the big drifter.

Obviously, when your best case scenario is only as accurate as my actual Ladder Predictor, your worst case scenario is miles off. Miles.

So from this we can deduce:

• Fadge's Ladder Predictor is in the top one percentile of all Ladder Predictions in the thread. Starting with Collingwood and Brisbane as the top 2 teams, in that order;
• Arr0w's clustered groupings are in the bottom 20% of all analyses in the thread. Starting with Richmond (LOL), Melbourne (Hmmm) and Geelong (forgivable) as the Top 3 teams. Followed by your declarations re: Collingwood and Brisbane (referenced above).

Wowee.