Preview 2024 AFL Draft General Discussion

[Mutineer]

injuries often derail KPF careers, so exposed form aside which isnt shaky, it isn't too much of a stretch to call whether or not he will make it as shaky.

Pretty obvious you didn't watch his last 7 games when he resumed.

 

[Dr Tigris]

But they never invested in actually creating a pipeline, so it effectively was just a 'dibs' pathway.

The clubs invested in their academies. very successfully. Not the AFL. Beyond that Aussie rules has grown in NSW and Qld. So I guess successful. Beyond a certain point it is just giving to the rich.

 

[THE_GUN]

We’ve been in a shocking holding pattern for too long mate….we need to improve and start getting better next year. Maybe not with wins, but percentage and overall improvement. We need players IMO, can’t afford to wait longer.

I highly doubt 1 extra 18 year old kid is going to do that TBH

 

[Dr Tigris]

This is probably the main reason it won't change (at least for a while). The AFL had a great opportunity to remove northern academy access last year and instead re-introduced NGA access. That probably indicates that they want to protect the northern academies for now.

The AFL will always double down, until it is all a steaming pile of *$#&%$. Then they quietly exit whatever it is.

e.g. their rule changes to speed the game up, stand rule, which actually slows it down. Will stick with it, then at some point soften it, then basically drop it.

Given the Academies strongly help GC and GWS they will stick with them until they win premierships. Then they'll be dropped. Probably without filling the hole in player development.

 

[Stamos]

SEN's 2024 AFL full Phantom Draft

Draft expert Nathan Sepe makes his predictions for every selection in the 2024 AFL National Draft.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Wild Bill]

Thats true. That said, as far as KPP there is really no such thing as sure fire. Even when drafted top 10 it's 50 / 50. You'd almost rather there be decent talls in the teens and twenties then top 10. That way at least when you're gambling, the stakes aren't as high.

If you go back, it's pretty horrific. This is top 10 talls from 2010-2019 so includes players who have played at least 5 seasons. I have based the ratings on their relative draft position and whether they have justified it. Doesn't even include 2020 where Grainger-Barrass, Reid and to a lesser extent Thilthorpe are all looking shaky.

2019 - Jackson (Pass), McAsey (Epic Fail) (Ratings could still change)
2018 - Lukocious (Fail), King (Pass), King (Pass) (Ratings could still change)
2017 - Naughton (Pass)
2016 - Logue (Borderline)
2015 - Weitering (Pass), Schache (Epic Fail), Francis (Fail), Weideman (Fail), McKay (Pass)
2014 - Marchbank (Fail), Wright (Fail)
2013 - Boyd (Fail)
2012 - None
2011 - Patton (Fail)
2010 - Day (Fail), Gorringe (Fail)

37 pass 26 fail - taking mids early also has its dangers.

2019 – Rowell pass, Anderson pass, Ash pass, Stephens fail, Serong pass, Green pass
2018 – Walsh pass, Rozee pass, Smith pass, Thomas fail,
2017 - Raynor pass, Brayshaw pass, Dow fail, LDU pass, Cerra pass, Stephenson fail, Clark fail, Coffield fail, O’Brien fail, Bonar Fail,
2016 – Taranto pass, mcCluggae pass, Ainsworth pass, Settefield fail, SPS fail, Brodie fail, Bowes fail
2015 – Mills pass, Oliver pass, Parish pass, Hopper pass, Ah chee pass
2014 – Trac pass, Brayshaw pass, Pickett fail, De Goey pass, Ahern fail, Cockatoo fail
2013 – Kelly pass, Billings pass (just), Bont pass, Scharenberg fail, Aish pass, Freeman fail
2012 – Whitfeild pass, O’Rouke epic fail, Toumpus – epic fail, Macrea – pass, Wines – pass, Mayes fail, Menzel fail
2011 – Coniglio pass, Tyson fail, Will Hoskin Elliott pass, Wingard pass, Sumner fail
2010 – Swallow pass, Benell fail, Gaff pass, Polec fail, Conca fail, Heppell pass, Prestia pass

 

[Michaels]

Up till the last few nights I had stupidly not looked into Draper too much just assuming he will end up at the Crows being SA talent.

But after looking into him more, I actually think he could be the best of the 3 when looking at Lalor / FOS and Draper and I would not be against him being pick 1 or the target of choice IF we traded up to pick 2.

He can seriously play..

 

[T4P]

The clubs invested in their academies. very successfully. Not the AFL. Beyond that Aussie rules has grown in NSW and Qld. So I guess successful. Beyond a certain point it is just giving to the rich.

The vast majority of players, if not all, were already paying AFL within the established AFL pathways before joining club academies, playing well enough for clubs to identify their talent and call dibs on them.

The fact that so many club academy players get drafted so highly shows that it's just a dibs process. If the club academies were actually growing the AFL platform, the strike rate wouldn't be so high.

 

[T4P]

Pretty obvious you didn't watch his last 7 games when he resumed.

Of course not, but I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt there.

He played seven games in a season. A successful key forward plays more than seven games. He's only gotten through one full season.

A lot of the time it isn't a question of talent, but whether or not they can stay on the park.

 

[Mutineer]

Of course not, but I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt there.

He played seven games in a season. A successful key forward plays more than seven games. He's only gotten through one full season.

A lot of the time it isn't a question of talent, but whether or not they can stay on the park.

Yeah a young key forward has never had a bit of an unlucky run with injuries before Thilthorpe came along. I'll enjoy revisiting this in the years to come...

 

[T4P]

Yeah a young key forward has never had a bit of an unlucky run with injuries before Thilthorpe came along. I'll enjoy revisiting this in the years to come...

Why do you think I'm saying you're wrong?

I'm not saying he won't succeed, I'm saying he's not 100% a successful pick without consecutive full seasons.

If you quote me in a couple of years to gloat, I'll be happy for Riley, whilst also still being confused why I'm the enemy here.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

SEN's 2024 AFL full Phantom Draft

Draft expert Nathan Sepe makes his predictions for every selection in the 2024 AFL National Draft.

www.sen.com.au

Lol Gerreyn at 60.

 

[LB2Snake]

I highly doubt 1 extra 18 year old kid is going to do that TBH

Serious? I'll happily put FOS, Lalor, Langford, which are the 3 I think suit us, into our current team immediately. Think any of those 3 into North's side has great upside, and we don;t nned to slide one of our mids out to accomodate them.....Maybe Langford, but geez he's got some tricks that would suit anywhere else on the ground too, for a short while.
I'm also not just thinking of the blokes who played for us in the last round. We have a couple of KP's, particularly Will Dawson, and I like the look of Maley, but he's raw, who could be absolute game-changers for us in the next year or, most likely, 2.
But putting our drafting out of whack for another year seems ludicrous to me, just for a gamble or possible upside.
Bombers and Dees could both play finals, who knows. And I think you, or someone else, had our F2 in there as well. Big nup from me.
When you have a guaranteed top echelon pick you take the gun, see what I did there, , talent.
I know the rhetoric is North need to trade back, blah blah, but we only will if we are getting a good return for it....Or I'd like to at least believe that's how a professional organisation operates.

 

[LB2Snake]

Lol Gerreyn at 60.

Ssshhhh....means he's also available at 55

 

[LB2Snake]

Ssshhhh....means he's also available at 55

Lalor and Gerryn would go all right. Geez that's a long wait between 2 and 55 though.

 

[briztoon]

But they never invested in actually creating a pipeline, so it effectively was just a 'dibs' pathway.

Sydney and GC have both put massive investment in to their academies.

 

[Dr Tigris]

The vast majority of players, if not all, were already paying AFL within the established AFL pathways before joining club academies, playing well enough for clubs to identify their talent and call dibs on them.

The fact that so many club academy players get drafted so highly shows that it's just a dibs process. If the club academies were actually growing the AFL platform, the strike rate wouldn't be so high.

Apart from along the Murray river and surrounds there were no serious AFL pathways in NSW or Qld. That is what the Academies are supposed to tackle. They were established many years ago now. Whether the logic for their creation still applies I don't know. But someone in wider Sydney or Qld did not have the same development pathways as someone on the traditional states/areas.

Re the strike rate I think that what this shows is that talented athletes who are given carefully tailored development for many years can reach a high level of performance. And that the success of the NSW and Qld Academies shows that the traditional states are probably underperforming compared to the club Academies. Probably I think.

 

[sydney_gws]

Pretty obvious you didn't watch his last 7 games when he resumed.

He looks good at this stage, Talls just seem more likely to get injured than mids.
Boyd and Patton where both pretty good, just a shame Mrntal health and the 3 knee recos impacted their longevity considerably.
People tend to forget all these guys are human, they don't try to get injured.

 

[briztoon]

The vast majority of players, if not all, were already paying AFL within the established AFL pathways before joining club academies, playing well enough for clubs to identify their talent and call dibs on them.

The fact that so many club academy players get drafted so highly shows that it's just a dibs process. If the club academies were actually growing the AFL platform, the strike rate wouldn't be so high.

Mate, I believe you’re throwing a heap of generalisations out there and actually haven’t looked at where each academy kid was drafted, how many have been drafted, etc.

Gold Coast, outside of last year, have had sfa kids drafted in the first round, and the one kid that was, now plays for Geelong.

Similarly, Brisbane has had 1 academy kid drafted in the first round before, Hipwood. Our second highest drafted academy kid plays for Adelaide.

GWS had that brief access to the Riverina kids, which the Vic clubs kicked up a fuss about, but since then have had 1 decent academy kid.

Sydney puts over a $1m in funding per year in to their academy and have had 5 first round kids drafted in 10 years. That’s $2m invested per kid.


Yes there are established Aussie Rules path ways up here as part of the local clubs.

But they don’t compare to the pathways in Vic, SA and WA. If you believe they do, you have nfi what you are talking about.

And honestly, it’s quite clear you have nfi what you’re talking about anyway.

 

[BennyGan]

Thats true. That said, as far as KPP there is really no such thing as sure fire. Even when drafted top 10 it's 50 / 50. You'd almost rather there be decent talls in the teens and twenties then top 10. That way at least when you're gambling, the stakes aren't as high.

If you go back, it's pretty horrific. This is top 10 talls from 2010-2019 so includes players who have played at least 5 seasons. I have based the ratings on their relative draft position and whether they have justified it. Doesn't even include 2020 where Grainger-Barrass, Reid and to a lesser extent Thilthorpe are all looking shaky.

2019 - Jackson (Pass), McAsey (Epic Fail) (Ratings could still change)
2018 - Lukocious (Fail), King (Pass), King (Pass) (Ratings could still change)
2017 - Naughton (Pass)
2016 - Logue (Borderline)
2015 - Weitering (Pass), Schache (Epic Fail), Francis (Fail), Weideman (Fail), McKay (Pass)
2014 - Marchbank (Fail), Wright (Fail)
2013 - Boyd (Fail)
2012 - None
2011 - Patton (Fail)
2010 - Day (Fail), Gorringe (Fail)

When you put it like that maybe I’m being a little harsh then. I probably should have extended it out to top 20. At the moment I have Shanahan and Tauru clearly in my top 20 and then I’ve got Armstrong and Trainor on the fringes. I do think all 4 of them will be drafted inside 20 though.

 

[BennyGan]

Pretty obvious you didn't watch his last 7 games when he resumed.

Think he only ended up with like 3 goals against us but he was dominating us in that game late in the year. Had like a 15 min stretch that was as good as any player looked against us for the season. I’m a big fan of him and rate him as high as any of the young key forwards for the future.

 

[BennyGan]

He looks good at this stage, Talls just seem more likely to get injured than mids.
Boyd and Patton where both pretty good, just a shame Mrntal health and the 3 knee recos impacted their longevity considerably.
People tend to forget all these guys are human, they don't try to get injured.

Those 2 might have been the two most dominant key fwds I’ve seen at juniors. They looked like monsters at 15. Think being so much physically bigger and stronger than everyone from such a young age also plays an impact on a players development. Can certainly affect their psychology and work ethic. Not saying it happens to every one but you certainly see cases of it negatively impacting them.

 

[GC2015]

The AFL will always double down, until it is all a steaming pile of *$#&%$. Then they quietly exit whatever it is.

e.g. their rule changes to speed the game up, stand rule, which actually slows it down. Will stick with it, then at some point soften it, then basically drop it.

Given the Academies strongly help GC and GWS they will stick with them until they win premierships. Then they'll be dropped. Probably without filling the hole in player development.

Perhaps. There's no denying that they want the Suns and Giants to get to a point where they can stand on their own two feet.

 

[T4P]

Mate, I believe you’re throwing a heap of generalisations out there and actually haven’t looked at where each academy kid was drafted, how many have been drafted, etc.

Gold Coast, outside of last year, have had sfa kids drafted in the first round, and the one kid that was, now plays for Geelong.

Similarly, Brisbane has had 1 academy kid drafted in the first round before, Hipwood. Our second highest drafted academy kid plays for Adelaide.

GWS had that brief access to the Riverina kids, which the Vic clubs kicked up a fuss about, but since then have had 1 decent academy kid.

Sydney puts over a $1m in funding per year in to their academy and have had 5 first round kids drafted in 10 years. That’s $2m invested per kid.


Yes there are established Aussie Rules path ways up here as part of the local clubs.

But they don’t compare to the pathways in Vic, SA and WA. If you believe they do, you have nfi what you are talking about.

And honestly, it’s quite clear you have nfi what you’re talking about anyway.

Okay so it's more a situation of the AFL outsourcing what it should be doing to clubs?

 

[briztoon]

Okay so it's more a situation of the AFL outsourcing what it should be doing to clubs?

Of course, that’s what the AFL said when it set up the academy’s.